Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KILM 301344
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
944 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
Moisture associated with the remnants of Bonnie will be very slow
to leave the area even as the actual system does by Wednesday. The
weather may then turn even more unsettled by Friday and into the
weekend as a cold front drops into the area and stalls.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Monday...Tropical depression Bonnie`s circulation is
wandering between Charleston and Kingstree this morning. Surface
obs...satellite...and radar imagery suggest a center over
Williamsburg County. Widespread showers extend well north of the
center across Bennettsville...Lumberton and Fayetteville.
Models are in unanimous agreement that destabilization from
daytime heating will create even more coverage of showers over the
next several hours. Forecast soundings suggest developing CAPE of
1000 j/kg inland and 2000+ j/kg across SE North Carolina where
temperatures should reach 81-82 this afternoon. This opens the
possibility for thunderstorms with heavy rain potential.
Precipitable water is around 1.7 inches which is at the 80th
percentile for this time of the year. Our forecast is for a
widespread 1 inch of rain today inland from the coast...but
training cells could produce localized areas of 2-3 inches. If
antecedent rainfall totals were higher over the past few days we
might consider a flood watch...but soils can probably take a
couple inches without significant problems. WPC has our area
outlooked in a `slight risk` for excessive rainfall today.
Convection should weaken (but not dissipate entirely) tonight
with the loss of heating. Bonnie`s decaying swirl may begin to
pick up some motion toward the northeast overnight. The best
chance of showers tonight will develop offshore and across coastal
north carolina where cell motion will tend to advect maritime
convection inland. Remaining humid with lows upper 60s to around
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...The remnants of Bonnie will be drifting
northward and should be creeping along the Cape Fear coast Tue and
Tue night and then up across the Outer Banks Wed and Wed Night. This
does eventually allow for some weak subsidence and drier air aloft.
However...more in the way of heating will stimulate the atmosphere
and moisture combined with instability will allow for the development
of showers and a few thunderstorms. There may be slightly less
coverage of convection Wed and Wed night as compared to Tue and Tue
night, but even that may be optimistic given increasing low-level
convergence along a developing seabreeze.
Highs both days will be in the 80s...warmest Wed. Lows will be in
the upper 60s to near 70.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...It looks like the long term may be summed
up as a period that goes from being somewhat unsettled to one that
ends up even more active. Early on we will be in a pattern of very
light flow through much of the column, not unlike during the heart
of summer. A weak mid level ridge will try to build over the area
while the surface pressure pattern remains quite poorly defined.
There will also be quite a bit of low level moisture remaining
following our brush with Bonnie. Saturday is when the
aforementioned transition to even more unsettled weather is
expected. A cold front will drop into the area and stall. This
will argue for increased rain chances while more prevalent cloud
cover tempers afternoon highs. This boundary may be weakening over
the area on Monday but another one may be already poised to move
into its place as Great Lakes troughiness deepens.
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 12Z...The depression has not moved much in 24 hours, and more
of the same is expected today. Look for small bands of low level
convergent convection today, most numerous from late morning to
early afternoon. Predominately MVFR in showers with brief bouts of
IFR. Continued southeast flow, not as strong as yesterday.
Convection this afternoon will concentrate around the low, which
will be from the Myrtles to ILM.
Extended Outlook...Expect unsettled weather through Thursday with
possible SHRA/isolated TSRA and TEMPO MVFR/IFR conditions.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Monday...Small craft advisory conditions remain
possible across our north carolina coastal waters mainly due to
seas. Wave heights at the Frying Pan Shoals buoy are 6 feet with
4-5 foot waves currently reported closer to shore. Conditions are
only slightly better along the upper South Carolina coastline
where 3-5 foot seas should continue into this evening.
Little change in wave heights is expected through tonight as the
weak center of tropical depression Bonnie drifts along the South
Carolina coastline. While the bulk of the shower and t-storm
activity will remain inland...scattered activity will push
northward across the waters today...perhaps becoming a little more
concentrated across the cape fear area tonight.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...The remnants of Bonnie will be lifting
slowly N across the North Carolina waters Tue and Tue night and
then further NE and away from the area Wed and Wed night. As the
weak circulation lifts N, winds will veer. SW or WSW winds will
dominate Tue with WNW to NW winds Tue night. A weak gradient
should allow the seabreeze circulation to dictate the wind
direction Wed, with winds returning to SW or S. The strongest
winds will be Tue, up to 15 to 20 kt. The highest seas will be
Tue, up to 3 to 4 ft with some 5 ft seas lingering across the
northern waters. Winds and seas will thereafter steadily lower.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...A light southwesterly flow becomes
established on Thursday. Any remnants of Bonnie will be off to our
northeast and a weak surface troughiness may be left behind down
the coast. Otherwise there shouldn`t be much to give shape to the
surface pressure gradient making for some light and somewhat
variable winds. The approach from the northwest of a cold front
Friday should make local winds more decidedly southwesterly but an
increase in wind/gradient/seas is not anticipated.
NC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252.