Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281117 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 717 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THROUGH MID WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...A STRONG 500 MB DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING THE COAST THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF SHOWERS NOW APPROACHING THE COAST. I HAVE UPDATED POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT IN THE WILMINGTON/WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH CORRIDOR FOR THE NEXT 60-90 MINUTES...WITH RAPID DRYING BEHIND THIS LINE. LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP IN THE ONGOING COLD ADVECTION AND THIS ACTIVITY IS DEFINITELY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. THIS SHOULD BE AN ALL-LIQUID EVENT WITH FREEZING LEVELS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 2000 FEET. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS (AS LOW AS -6C TO -8C) SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. ADVECTION SHOULD TURN NEUTRAL TONIGHT AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AFTER THIS MORNING`S CLOUD COVER FOLLOWS THE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE OFF THE EAST...EXPECT SOME THIN STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP AT THE TOP OF A DEEP DAYTIME MIXED LAYER. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 52-57 RANGE FROM LUMBERTON TO GEORGETOWN...WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT AROUND 55 TODAY. TONIGHT WE ARE UNFORTUNATELY EXPECTING A FREEZE TO OCCUR IN ALL BUT SOME BEACHFRONT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE A BIT COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND MAY BE 1-2 DEGREES TOO COOL NEAR THE COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT DIE DOWN BELOW 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. FARTHER INLAND THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT WINDS BEFORE DAYBREAK WHICH MAY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S. A HARD FREEZE LIKE THIS COULD BE VERY DAMAGING TO UNPROTECTED EARLY-BLOOMING PLANTS. GARDENERS AND FARMERS SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THIS LATE SEASON FREEZE AND TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS. RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT (SUNDAY MORNING MARCH 29) WILMINGTON 31 IN 2011 FLORENCE 28 IN 1966 NORTH MYRTLE BEACH 31 IN 2013 && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE 5H TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL EXIT EAST...LEAVING A FLAT/PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. SUBTLE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW COMBINED WITH STEADY INCREASE IN HEIGHTS/THICKNESS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND...THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATER MON. THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...SO ALL OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINS DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHICH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO. WHILE TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS IT IS STARTING TO LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WILL GO AHEAD AND NUDGE POP UP BUT WORDING WILL REMAIN IN THE CHC CATEGORY. TEMPS MON WILL BE WARMER THAN SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A WARMER START TO THE DAY RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD TUE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST WED AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AND THU AS IT HELPS LIFT THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE WAVES OVERALL IMPACT ON THE AREA WILL BE LIMITED OWING TO ITS WEAK NATURE. GFS/ECMWF ARE ONCE AGAIN AT ODDS WITH HANDLING THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT/CORRECT WITH RECENTLY...INCLUDING THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS THIS WEEKEND AND THE COLD FRONT LATER MON. AS SUCH HAVE LEANED FORECAST IN FAVOR OF THE GFS SOLUTION. COLD FRONT APPEARS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ONE TO START THE WEEK...THOUGH IT WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE COLD AIR. THE PARENT LOW IS DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT LACKS DYNAMICS. SOME PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SILENT POP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO TUE CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO TUE NIGHT AND REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 11Z...AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS CLEARED ALL TERMINALS BUT ILM AND RAIN SHOULD END HERE BY 12Z. LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH 13-14Z...OTHERWISE ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR CONDTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT NW WINDS INVOF 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THE SHORT FETCH ON NORTHWESTERLY (OFFSHORE) WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS WEATHER MODELS...MAKING THIS A HIGH- CONFIDENCE FORECAST. SEAS REMAIN AS HIGH AS 6 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY BUT HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 4 FEET AT THE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND CAPE FEAR HARBOR BUOY. 2 FOOT SEAS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM THE SUNSET BEACH BUOY. THESE READINGS VALIDATE THE LATEST WAVEWATCH MODEL WHICH IS THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...DECREASING OFFSHORE FLOW SUN WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SUN NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. RETURN FLOW STARTS INCREASING LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE A SOLID 20 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KT MON AFTERNOON AND A SHORT DURATION SCA MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED AT A LATER DATE. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON EVENING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING MON NIGHT. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION OR GRADIENT POST FRONT WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT SUN AND 2 FT OR LESS SUN NIGHT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT MON ON THE BACK OF INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW MON NIGHT WILL KNOCK SEAS BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON TUE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE GRADIENT DURING THE PERIOD WITH OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST WED AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LIGHT WINDS AND CHANGING DIRECTION WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT EACH DAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096- 099-105>110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...31

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