Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 220612 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 212 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The remnant circulation of former Tropical Storm Julia will maintain scattered showers through Friday. Drier weather should develop Saturday as high pressure pokes in from the north. A cold front will move through early Sunday, followed by several days of onshore winds and slightly cooler temperatures next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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As of 1030 PM Wednesday...Have upped POPs to likely as convection over the adjacent Atl waters has already begun its development and its push inland. Already, a few cells have pushed onshore. One of them went directly over ILM ASOS, and deposited 0.85 inches of rainfall in 30 minutes. With PWS at or higher than 2.00 inches, this pcpn activity will be quite zealous in its production of QPF amounts. Have updated the QPF with hier amounts for the overnight period. No lightning strikes with this activity at the moment. Will continue to mention isolated thunder...and the heavy rain phraseology. Have upped mins, hourly temps and dewpts by 1 to 3 degrees across the ILM CWA due to the clouds and pcpn.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...The persistent mid to upper low will become more elongated and may drift westward before opening up into a trough along the east coast and moving off shore by Fri night. The center of the low will remain south of the area with trough extending northward maintaining a deeper on shore flow through the period. The trough looks like it will be just along or off shore which will keep a N-NE flow over much of the area but should see more of an E-SE flow at times along the coast and off shore as trough and diurnal shifts take place. Pcp water values will remain up above 1.75 inches through much of the period in a very moist air mass. With such deep layer moisture and a deep low/trough over the region through the period, expect unsettled weather to continue. While POP areal coverage should remain scattered most of this period, there will be bands of showers with more moderate to heavy rain across portions of the area associated with upper level energy rotating around over the region. Drying will finally take place late Fri into early Saturday as trough finally moves off to the east. Skies will begin to clear from west to east leaving partly cloudy skies by Fri night over most places. Max temps will reach near or around 80 during the afternoons overnight lows near 70 Thurs night but slightly lower Fri night as some clearing occurs. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...The upper levels will certainly not look anything like summer with a very amplified trough-ridge-trough pattern expected to develop across North America. Models have struggled to form a consensus over the past few days with details, however the new 12z GFS may be on to something with its depiction of an Omega block developing by Tuesday. Due to this blocked pattern, the potential of a strong cold frontal passage late this month is now in jeopardy and we may remain in the tropical/subtropical humidity through the remainder of September. A 500 mb ridge centered across the Mississippi Valley on Saturday will only slowly work east into the Carolinas by Tuesday and Wednesday. A deep upper level low moving across the Canadian Maritime provinces will push a cold front southward along the East Coast, reaching the Carolinas early Sunday. The surface high behind this front won`t dive south, and in fact may only reach coastal New England by late Tuesday or Wednesday. This will create an extended period of onshore winds and the potential for scattered showers as a band of convergence behind the old front could settle across the area, coincident with at least shallow Atlantic moisture. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Mid-level trough and surface reflection will linger over the area through Thursday night. The surface circulation is expected to linger off the SC coast, and clouds and scattered showers will rotate onshore periodically. Ceilings will at times be reduced to IFR, especially through 12z. Some guidance is indicating potential for LIFR, but confidence is too low for inclusion at this time. Coverage of convection with thunder is expected to increase with heating this afternoon. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening convection possible underneath the cutoff upper low through Friday. MVFR/IFR morning stratus/fog possible each day through Sunday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 PM Wednesday...This update concerned with PCPN coverage. Have upped the shra and isolated thunder coverage overnight based on latest 88D trends and near term Model guidance ie. HRRR and the RAP. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Low pressure will weaken south of the waters with trough aligned up the coast through the period. This will keep an on shore flow through the period and depending on the exact position of the trough, the winds will fluctuate between E-SE to E-NE over the waters...remaining 10 kts or less. Winds will turn more northerly and pick up a bit by Fri night as low finally moves off to the east. Showers and isolated TSTMS will remain in the mix. Seas will basically remain 3 ft or less with a slight, slow and steady rise as a longer period up to 12 second SE swells mix in. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Julia`s remnants should be long gone from the weather map by Saturday. High pressure dropping southward from the southern portion of Hudson Bay will push a cold front through the Carolinas early Sunday. This front will sink to coastal Georgia Monday with easterly winds developing across the Carolinas. Scattered showers should develop mainly behind the front beginning Sunday night. Wave heights of 2-3 feet are expected south of Cape Fear Saturday into the first half of Sunday, with the potential for 3-4 foot seas near and north of Cape Fear due to residual swells emanating from distant Tropical Storm Karl. By Sunday night modest onshore winds will create the potential of shorter period 2-4 foot waves away throughout the area, continuing into Monday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...TRA AVIATION...CRM

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