Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 291733 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 133 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to bring oppressive heat and humidity to the region through Saturday. The high will begin to break down over the weekend leading to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday and continuing through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 11 AM Friday...Latest heat indices remaining between 95 and 100 degrees late this morning, about 4 to 5 degrees below yesterday at this time. Drier moderate to strong westerly downslope winds have allowed dewpoint temps to drop in places while 850 temps were running below 19c keeping overall temps a couple of degrees less than yesterday. Therefore, although it is hot, heat indices should remain below 105 and a heat advisory should not be needed this afternoon. Overall high pressure ridge remains to the southeast and a Piedmont trough continues to the west. Cu field was developing mainly I-95 corridor and west and along sea breeze boundary. Convective indices point to best chc of convection inland along piedmont trough or even farther west toward the mountains. Otherwise could see isolated shwrs/tstms pulse up along sea breeze boundary mainly from Cape fear northward. The westerly steering flow will guide a any shwrs/tstms east but expect them to dissipate as upper level ridging and drier air remain to the east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Friday...The bad news is on Saturday and Sunday the 850 temperatures creep up to 20 degrees Celsius so expect to see heat advisories reposted for the forecast area for Saturday and Sunday. The good news is that the Piedmont trough is forecast to shift closer to the coast and chance for convection increases with some needed rain and may temper some of the heat. By Sunday night the models stall a frontal boundary over north central North Carolina late sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 AM Friday...The extended period will feature a decent mid level trough that moves across the east coast by Wednesday. The associated cold front will make it to the area and basically dissipate. Overall the best combination of higher PW and synoptic forcing occurs Monday and Tuesday. Have continued to carry high chance to likely pops for these days. Much drier air at the mid levels sinks into the area Wednesday but low levels are mostly unchanged, therefore continued with much lower pops but there could still be some coverage. WPC days 4-5 QPF shows decent amounts for Monday and Tuesday. Temperature forecast cools slowly through the period from well above seasonal normals Monday to near average by Thursday. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 12Z...The aviation community can expect VFR conditions through the period. There is a small chance for sea breeze convection today, particularly over our NC counties. Have included VCTS at ILM aft 18Z to account for this. All other terminals are forecast to be convection free for now. Winds should be s to sw at 10 to 15 kt by day and 5 to 10 kt aft sunset. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon convection Sunday and onward through the forecast will create fleeting and localized MVFR/IFR. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 11 AM Friday...Southwest winds will continue as the Bermuda High remains suppressed to the south of the coastal waters. The nocturnal low- level jet will weaken during the day and the winds of 15 to 20 knots over the waters before sunrise today. This will result in the surface winds falling to 10 to 15 knots during the day. Seas will continue to run 2 to 3 ft with 4 ft seas especially 10 miles off the coast. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Friday...The synoptic pressure pattern has changed little through this period. The only slight change is the Piedmont trough shifts a little closer to the coast and winds will be around 10 to 15 knots as pressure gradient weakens a tad. Late on Sunday a cold front will move into the central sections of North Carolina and a low-level jet develops overnight and winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots. Seas will fluctuate between 2 to 4 feet through the period. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 240 AM Friday...Southwest winds of 10-15 knots will continue across the waters Monday and Tuesday. A front will be crawling toward the area late Tuesday but indications are the brief wind shift will be just after this valid time period. Significant seas will be 1-3 feet.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...RGZ/DRH SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RAN MARINE...

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