Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 201949 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 349 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT WEST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TUESDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND STALL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK BUT SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTN...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALIGNED WEST OF THE AREA ARE WORKING TOGETHER TO INCREASE COLUMN MOISTURE TODAY...AND KEEP A CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS EXPECTED...THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THIS DOES NOT MEAN...HOWEVER...THAT EASTERN ZONES WILL BE DRY. A WEAKENING COASTAL TROUGH/SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPAWN SHOWERS WITH ISO TSTMS THROUGH EVE BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING CAUSES THIS TO FIZZLE OUT. THE CONVECTION SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE AS IT IS BEING DRIVEN BY WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEPENING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY DROPPING INTO THE ARKLATEX WILL SHARPEN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN...CREATING AN OPEN GOM AND HELPING TO FURTHER INCREASE COLUMN MOISTURE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOIST COLUMN WILL LIKELY ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST WITHIN A RESIDUAL LAYER ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL STABLE PBL. WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THIS OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP AFTER A BRIEF LULL TONIGHT...AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT. THIS IS ECHOED WELL BY HIGH RES HRRR WHICH HAS BEEN INITIALIZING PRETTY WELL TODAY. COOLING TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE...AND CONTINUED WAA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. HAVE FORECAST LOWS ABOVE THE COOLEST GUIDANCE...WITH MID 70S EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES...AND LOWS AROUND 70 FAR WESTERN ZONES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...IT COULD BE A WET DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND AN OLD FRONT STALLED NEARBY. ADDITIONALLY...AND A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. EXPECT TO SEE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. MAXES MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S MOST AREAS WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AROUND 70. THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE TUESDAY BUT THE OLD FRONT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AREA AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH MAX BE MORE PRONOUNCED. THE WRF EVEN BRINGS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TUESDAY WITH THE MAXIMUM IN COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MAXIMUM SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MINS AGAIN AROUND 70.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE SETUP TO THE WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST ON FRIDAY. THE REGION WILL BE IN THE CLASSICAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH A FEW MIDDLE 90S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S. AS THE FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN INTO THE LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAPE AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MOST SPOTS WILL EXPERIENCE PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN CONVECTION. LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS AFTER 08Z...BEST CHANCE INLAND...AND ALTHOUGH A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP LATE...AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE A RAINY DAY WITH POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...LIKELY ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. VFR WILL BE PREDOMINANT...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...RATHER NONDESCRIPT PRESSURE PATTERN HAS KEPT WINDS LIGHT THUS FAR TODAY...WITH 10 KTS OR LESS SE WINDS OBSERVED AT THE LOCAL BUOYS. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WIND HAS ALLOWED A 9 SEC SE SWELL TO BECOME PREDOMINANT IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SO ALTHOUGH A WEAK S/SE WIND CHOP EXISTS...SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE 2-3 FT WITH AN 8 SEC PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRETTY UNIFORM INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. WINDS MAY BECOME SW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ASHORE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT AROUND 15 KNOTS BUTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD OUT AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET AND WITH INCREASE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106- 108. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS..31 NEAR TERM...WEISS SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM...DRH AVIATION...DL

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