Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 181655 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1255 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure will remain anchored off the Carolina Coasts through the weekend, helping to maintain fair and very warm conditions. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase early next week ahead of a cold front from the west. Next week will become a bit more unsettled as a series of low pressure systems cross the Eastern Seaboard. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 952 AM Thursday...Adjustments were needed to increase sky cover which may impact temperatures a degree or two today, but otherwise the forecast remains precipitation free and warmer than climatology today as advertised, with no significant changes. As of 330 AM Thursday...Southerly return flow around Bermuda High will produce some gusty winds especially along the coast as the afternoon sea breeze develops. High clouds continue to stream in up an over the top of the ridge through the Carolinas. The moisture profiles show a decent layer of RH close to 100 percent from H40 up to H20 through today into tonight. Therefore expect cirrus to filter out some sunshine through much of the day. The mid layers continue to remain very dry with increased subsidence under weakening and flattening ridge aloft as it gets suppressed farther south and east through the period. This should also maintain another rain free and very warm day across the eastern Carolinas. Pcp water values show less than three quarters of an inch over the area but just west into central NC the values jump up to 1.5 inches and there is also a slight increase up to one inch along seabreeze front in the afternoon indicative of a some cu development. Temps will soar well into the 80s just inland of the coast but will be tempered by cooler ocean air being brought inland by aftn sea breeze. Southerly flow should help push sea breeze quite far inland. Another nocturnal jet develops overnight Thurs with limited very shallow moisture present. This should eliminate fog in most places but may produce some very patchy fog or stratus just around daybreak when winds become lightest. Temps overnight will drop into the mid 60s inland to near 70 at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Thursday...The longwave upper ridge will hold it`s ground across the SE States this period. S/w trofs moving within the westerlies aloft will ride up over the ridge and across the Mid- atlantic and Northeast States. The upper ridge axis will have been shunted to the northeast coming into this period, but models do spring it back to the north and across the FA during Fri and the upcoming weekend. At the sfc, look for Bermuda high pressure ridging westward and inland in the vicinity of Cape Romain. This axis will delineate wind directions, with SSW to SW north of the ridge axis and SSE to SSW south of the ridge axis. The sfc pg remains loosened thru the period with the aftn and early evening inland progressing sea breeze to temporarily boost winds to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt mainly along the immediate coast. As for clouds, mainly high level thin occasional opaque cirrus thru the period with few/sct diurnally driven cu on Fri with additional cu during Sat. The additional clouds during Sat are the result of a sfc cold front having aligned from w to e across the Mid- atlantic states, slowly sinks southward and likely temporarily stalling across the FA. POPs for Sat and Sat night will be in the 15 to 30 percent range, with the hier POPs across the northern portions of the FA. Max temps 85 to 90 both days, except upper 70s to the lower 80s at the coast due to an active sea breeze both days. Min temps will run slightly above normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Backdoor cold front near or over our local area will quickly retreat back to the north Sunday as the aforementioned high slides off the New England coast and ridging persists aloft in response to a trough digging into the MS VLY. Soundings indicated some mid- level drying on Sunday so while a few showers are possible, Sunday looks also to be mostly dry with temps again slightly above climo. More cloud cover is forecast for Sunday though. A much more unsettled period begins Sunday night and especially Mon-Tue as a Cold front trails across the Carolinas with good shower and tstm chances. Much of Monday appears wet before drying occurs by Tuesday aftn thanks to the cold front pushing SE of the area. Broad trough remains across the east behind this feature, so while the middle of the week may again be dry, temps will be much cooler Mon-Wed than Sat/Sun. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 18Z...VFR this TAF cycle with exception of 2-3 miles in mist inland prior to daybreak, burning off a few hours after sunrise. S-SSW wind gusts to 22 KT occasionally at coastal terminal until 23z-00z, then SSW-SW 7 KT or less overnight. Diurnal afternoon cumulus will dissolve aft 00z leaving thin strands of cirrus overnight SCT-BKN200. Extended Outlook...Flight categories may lower to IFR or lower during the pre-dawn hours of Sat. Reduced flight categories will be possible in any showers and thunderstorms that develop on Monday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 952 AM Thursday...Southerly wave energy every 5-6 seconds will propagate ashore. Chop will increase this afternoon near shore as the sea breeze peaks. As of 330 AM Thursday...Benign seas will continue across the waters with a slight chop in afternoon sea breeze. A return flow will continue around Bermuda High with southerly winds in the 10 to 15 kt range picking up in the afternoon near shore in decent sea breeze with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas remain below 3 ft but increase ever so slightly through tonight in continued fairly weak southerly push. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Thursday...Sfc ridge axis from the parent Bermuda high will extend inland in the general vicinity of Cape Romain during this period. This will delineate sfc synoptic wind directions from SSW-SW north of the axis and SSE-SSW south of the axis. The sfc pg will remain relatively loose thruout the period. With wind speeds 5 to 10 kt or around 10 kt. The exception will be the near shore waters each aftn/evening with speeds of 10 to 15 kt with g20 kt due to an active sea breeze cycle. Significant seas will hover around 2 to occasionally 3 ft. A pseudo or fresh ESE-SE swell at 6 to 8 second periods will develop and affect the area this period. This a result of the continuous wind field across the Atl Waters south of the center of the Bermuda high pressure. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...A backdoor cold front over or just north of our local waters lifts back north Sunday and winds will veer back to the SE but at continued light speeds. This will change during Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. This front causes the gradient to pinch, and wind speeds become 15-20 kts while veering further to the SW late in the period. These stronger winds will drive wave heights up to 3-4 ft Monday as a Southerly wind wave amplifies, after persisting at 2-3 ft on Sunday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ/8 SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...8

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