Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251145 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 745 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BELOW FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A SLOW WARMUP WILL FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW: CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH MOVES ASHORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SURFACE OBS AND PRESSURE TRENDS INDICATE THAT TROUGH IS JUST NOW STARTING TO MAKE ITS MOVE WESTWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONVECTIVE INDICES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION OF A MORE SHOWERY NATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER...EXPECT THAT INCREASING SELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILARLY MILD...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A BROAD SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL AT THE MID LEVELS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND WARM AS THE DEEP ATLANTIC FLOW IN PLACE GETS SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND THE FRONT RESIDES WELL TO THE WEST. POPS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT AND HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE POWERFUL TROUGH. THE POPS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY CANT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS A POWERFUL VORT SWINGS ACROSS. ITS WORTH TAKING A LOOK AT THERMAL PROFILES FOR THIS TIME AND IT APPEARS IT WILL BE JUST A LITTLE TOO WARM AT THE SURFACE FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AND THE WINDOW IS VERY NARROW ANYWAY. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH A VERY WARM THURSDAY BACKING OFF CONSIDERABLY FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S RATHER QUICKLY LEAVING IN ITS WAKE A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING DURING THIS TIME...THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL DICTATE TEMPERATURES MOST NOTABLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE MEX HAS COME IN A LITTLE WARMER WITH 31 IN WILMINGTON AND 27 IN LUMBERTON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW WITH THIS SCENARIO AND A FREEZE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY. BEYOND THIS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WHICH WARMS THINGS UP SOMEWHAT WITH A DRY BACKDOOR FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY PUT A HALT ON THE WARMUP. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...SURFACE TRENDS SHOW LOW IFR CIGS SCATTERING ALONG THE COAST...BUT MVFR CIGS ARE PERSISTING NEAR KFLO. PRECIPITATION IS REMAINING SOUTH OF KMYR/KFLO AND EAST OF KILM. WINDS ARE NE ALONG THE COAST AND MORE ENE INLAND. MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED 16-21Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS WINDS BECOME SE BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART OF TODAY AT KFLO...SPREADING INTO KLBT AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME SE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING LOWERING TO IFR KCRE/KMYR AFTER 08-09Z. INLAND TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE LOW MVFR/HIGH IFR CIGS WITH LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT A GREATER CHANCE OF FOG. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING IFR CEILINGS ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW: A COASTAL TROUGH OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ASHORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE THIS MORNING TO THE SE BY AROUND NOON. WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE TODAY AND 3 TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WIND FIELDS SEEM UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR A DYNAMIC SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS DURING THE PERIOD. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS...MOSTLY LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST. I SUPPOSE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS MORE GRADUAL LIMITING MODELS DEPICTION OF THE WINDS AND THE FACT THE CORE OF COLD AIR IS TO THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO A 15-20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 FEET THURSDAY POSSIBLY ECLIPSING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BRIEFLY BEFORE THE OFFSHORE FLOW TRIMS BACK HEIGHTS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST SATURDAY WITH 15-20 KNOTS. VALUES BACK OFF SUNDAY TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MRR MARINE...REK/SHK

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