Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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665 FXUS62 KILM 082024 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 324 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST. A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MAY ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY TO CREATE A FEW SHOWERS. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER REMAINING COUPLED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD COOL AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. POST FRONTAL CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES ENTRENCHED OVER NE SC AND SE NC. NO APPRECIABLE FORCING THIS PERIOD AND OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN CONDITIONS WILL RESTRAIN ANY PRECIPITATION PROCESSES FROM GEARING UP. 875-750 MB CLOUDS MAY TRAVERSE THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FULLY EXPECT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNKEN INTO THE 20S. DUE TO ANTICIPATED BREEZES BOTH MORNINGS APPARENT TEMPS/WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 13-21 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE WEATHER FOR WHICH ROBERT FROST WOULD LIKELY APPROVE...BOTH IN ITS NEW-ENGLAND TYPE COLD AND CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP LATE WEEK AS AN ABNORMALLY COLD AIR MASS PLAGUES THE SOUTHEAST. DRY COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING LEAVES BLUSTERY AND COLD TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS OF -7C TO -10C WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A BAROCLINIC GRADIENT NEARBY...ON WHICH AT LEAST A WAKE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/ECM BOTH DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTN...AND WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IF QPF CAN OCCUR. LOCAL TOP DOWN SUGGESTS AN RW/SW MIX...AND WITH AN OTHERWISE WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE "THE ONLY OTHER SOUNDS THE SWEEP OF EASY WIND AND DOWNY FLAKE." NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ATTM OF COURSE...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. DRY AND EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING BY SUNDAY TOWARDS -20C. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS EXTREME COLD...THE TREND HAS BEEN THERE AND WILL BEGIN TO RAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS VERY COLD VALUES. THESE TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON THE STRONG CAA AS WELL...SO "AN HOUR OF WINTER DAY MIGHT SEEM TOO SHORT"...OR LONG IF VENTURING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WIND CHILLS MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS...10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH ANY HEAVY DOWNPOUR POTENTIALLY CREATING BRIEF MVFR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND PREVAILING VFR. ON TUESDAY...VFR CONTINUES WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WIND SHIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WATERS MORESO INLAND. EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP IN FULL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY 0600 UTC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN A 20-25 KNOT RANGE. SEAS ARE STILL A LITTLE CHURNED UP DUE TO THE STORM YESTERDAY BUT HAVE DIPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WINDS SHOULD DO THE TRICK WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...AN UNWELCOMING MARINE ENVIRONMENT TUE AND WED WITH ADVISORY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALLER WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR-SHORE ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES BUT FARTHER OUT SEAS WILL WORSEN. GUSTS TO 30 KT A GOOD BET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BOTH DAYS. SEAS GENERALLY 3-7 FT BOTH DAYS AND HIGHEST OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUE/WED BECAUSE OF THE BLUSTERY WIND-SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BOOKEND THE PERIOD BEHIND A COLD FRONT JUST BEFORE THE PERIOD...AND A SECOND ONE ON FRIDAY EVENING. NW WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ALL DAY SATURDAY...WILL BE 15-20 KTS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY LIGHT AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THE GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING FROM 3-5 FT EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN RISING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT LATE SATURDAY WITH A NW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A WEAK GROUND SWELL.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SGL/SHK

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