Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 181558 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1158 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Hurricane Jose will continue to lift slowly north leaving dry and warm weather across the area through much of the week. An increased rip current risk will linger along the beaches due to continued swells. Powerful Hurricane Maria will be approaching the southeast coast this weekend and early next week. Too early to have confidence in its track as she gains latitude, but the Carolinas will begin to feel its impacts late week and through early next week, regardless of its ultimate track, in the form of strong rip currents, steepening breaking waves and hazardous seas.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 AM Monday...GOES-16 `low-level water vapor` depicts well the subsident zones encircling Jose, whose outer fringes were impinging the Outer Banks this morning, lifting slowly to the north. This satellite window also shows the exceptionally dry air that is presently covering the Carolinas. Precipiation processes as a result, will have a difficult time locally, although with heating and low level moisture we should see a small crop of diurnal cumulus sprout by middle afternoon. As Jose lifts north, local winds will trend slight to to NNW-NW late today and this evening while diminishing in speed. In the sky department, stratus around the Cape Fear region, will through morning, gradually transition to cumulus with increased heating later this morning and afternoon. No changes made to MaxT this update with 84-87 most locals, although slow warming beneath low stratus clouds could require some edits with the midday updates. High rip current risk for all beaches. As of 300 AM Monday...Weak high pressure will continue to extend down from the north as Jose, around 400 miles due east early this morning, lifts farther off to the north. Moisture profiles and sounding data show saturated low level column up to around 1500 ft over mainly coastal NC but should extend in as far as Lumberton. Therefore expect another round of stratus this morning. These low clouds will dissipate through mid to late morning. Otherwise will have a mainly dry period as Jose lifts off to the north and high pressure extends down into the Carolinas. Pcp water loops do show some moisture bands wrapping around along the NC coast but this will mainly amount to some mid level clouds. Northerly winds will back to the N-NW through tonight leaving continued dry air and subsidence across the area. Have left out any mention of pcp through the period. Overall expect a good amount of sunshine with temps in the mid 80s this aftn and mid 60s most places for lows tonight. The rip current risk will remain elevated through today as a result of the incoming swell energy from Jose. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...Dry and warm weather will characterize the Short Term. Period begins with Hurricane Jose projected to be located at sea well east of Hampton roads, continuing on a generally NNE to NEly track. Eastern CONUS will be the influence of a weak ridge during this period. Subsidence in the wake of Jose and dry air aloft will keep a lid on convection and along with ample insolation contribute to a warming trend. Expect slightly higher than normal temperatures developing by Wednesday. && && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1200 PM Monday...Persistent high pressure will be reinforced from the north Fri and Sat. Did include a small risk for a shower or thunderstorm Thu, before high pressure strengthens across the area. Did include a small risk for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm along the seabreeze Sat and Sun. Monday`s forecast will hinge to a large degree on the track and strength of powerful Hurricane Maria and we will be watching the tropics especially closely. Tropical cyclone Jose or its remnants will be virtually stalled SE of New England late in the week and may actually begin to drift S Fri and through the weekend. Hurricane Maria is expected to be a powerful hurricane as she approaches during the weekend. Her forerunner swell energy will begin to be felt on the Carolina beaches late week which will increase the breaking wave heights and rip current risk. A high risk for rip currents is likely this weekend and early next week. Much too early to have any confidence in a track forecast for Maria as she approaches the southeast coast. Some of the models continue to show interaction between Maria and Jose early next week and Jose may play a part in the path Maria ultimately takes as she gains latitude and approaches the U.S. east coast. Highs will be in the mid and upper 80s Thu and Fri and lower to mid 80s thereafter. Lows will be mainly in the 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 12Z...Based on satellite loops, good confidence ILM will initialize at IFR for cigs as a stratus deck works its way south along the coast. Confidence is low that it will affect the other terminals, so remainder of our TAF sites will initialize at VFR and remain so through the remainder of the valid period. Exception to this is LBT, with moderate confidence for MVFR category fog around daybreak on Tuesday. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions through the period are expected with the exception of a few hours of early morning low clouds or fog most mornings through the period. The highest risk of IFR conditions will be in the 0900-1200Z timeframe.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 Am Monday...E swell and ENE-NE wind-waves affecting the waters with 5-8 foot seas running through the 0-20 NM zones. E swell in 13-14 second intervals and NE winds waves in 3-5 second wave periods. Swell heights now in a subsiding trend and by this time tomorrow will be nearly half the heights of right now. N winds will trend to NNW-NW into this evening as Jose pulls a bit farther to the north. No significant changes needed to the marine forecast and the Advisory will prevail today and tonight before wave heights drop below 6 ft early Tuesday. As of 300 AM Monday...Latest buoy observations show seas running about 5 to 8 ft with long period swells up to 12 to 13 seconds. The seas will be on a downward trend as Jose lifts off to the north and lingering swell energy begins to diminish. Ended up extending the SCA for the NC waters until 8am Tues, but the SCA will expire for SC waters 8 pm tonight. WNA indicates that the peak of seas occurred just around midnight and we are now on a downward trend through today into tonight as long period swells from Jose begin to taper off. Northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots will continue into this morning before diminishing and backing slightly toward the N-NW through tonight. Overall expect improving marine conditions through tonight. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...Conditions over the waters will continue to improve as the influence from distant Hurricane Jose fades. A Small Craft Advisory may be in effect for our NC waters at the beginning of the period with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. However, with Jose moving SE of New England, expect continued light winds, with seas subsiding below advisory criteria by Tuesday night. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1200 PM Monday...The risk for Small Craft Advisory seas is increasing this weekend. Weak high pressure will prevail through the period but will become better established from the north late week. Long period swell, the forerunners of powerful Hurricane Maria, will begin to reach our waters during this time. The swell energy looks to become significant Fri and Sat. The swell direction will be from the SE. Guidance is showing periods of around 15 seconds at Frying Pan Shoals with wave heights increasing from 4 to 5 ft Fri to 6 to 7 ft Sat. The swell will further increase Sun and Mon which will result in higher wave heights.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. NC...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC/RGZ SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...REK

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