Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 221434 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1030 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A seasonably cool weekend is on tap followed by a brief warm-up Monday. A reinforcing shot of dry and cool air Monday night will set the stage for dry weather and seasonable temperatures for much of the upcoming week. A low pressure system will approach the area late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1030 AM Saturday...`Tis breezy outside. But that`s what happens when you`ve got such strong cold air advection and a 35kt 925mb jet passing overhead paired with a mid level shortwave. All of the above will be weakening as the day wears on favoring a vespertine decrease in wind speeds. Before that happens however daytime heating will favor deeper mixing and a continued breezy afternoon. This paired with highs falling short of 70 and we`ve quite the making of a fresh Fall day with full sunshine. As mentioned the wind really drops off this evening but not to calm. This will preclude a true radation night but the airmass still chilly enough to support lows in the low 40s away from the ocean. Coastal communities will average in the mid 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Saturday...The change in the longwave pattern having been completed will result in Autumn weather across the FA this period with temps near normal. The center of sfc high over the gulf coast states will continue to affect the fa on Sunday but the difference from Saturday is that the FA will be under neutral air advection under w to nw winds with few gusts in the teens. For Monday...WAA ahead of the next cold front will push max temps well into the 70s, slightly above the norm, under sw to w winds. The cold front, a dry one, will drop across the area late Monday afternoon thru the early evening. CAA under N to NE winds to ensue as Canadian high pressure drops toward the area from the upper Midwest. Mainly clear skies thruout this period except possible sct/bkn low or mid level clouds associated with the cold front. As for overall temps, stayed close to a blend of the avbl model Mos Guidance. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 AM Saturday...In wake of a dry frontal passage Monday night, continentally dry air will be refreshed into the region Tuesday, transitioning to a nearly locked high pressure wedge configuration of longevity Wednesday into next weekend. The implications regarding sensible weather begins with notably cooler minimum temperatures inland versus the coast in NE flow, with spits of -RA favored near the coast beginning Thursday and extending into next Saturday. Maximum temperatures will run near normal this period, but minimums may settle above average over the eastern zones as a maritime influence appears likely. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 12Z...VFR likely through the TAF valid period. A cold front will move farther offshore this morning. Gusty northwest winds this morning 18-22 kt will ease late in the day. Tonight clear skies with W-WNW wind 5 knots or less. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM Saturday...No changes to the forecast or the advisories. Decreasing low level jetting and a relaxation of the surface gradient should allow Advisory to be dropped this evening. As of 630 AM Saturday...SCA conditions to prevail thru this aftn for the ILM SC waters, and to early this evening for the ILM NC Waters. The tightened sfc pg combined with excellent CAA will result in NW winds at 15 to 25 kt with a few higher gusts this morning. The gradient will slacken tonight and the CAA will come to an end. Looking at winds subsiding into the 10 to 20 kt range. Significant seas will be dominated by locally produced, low period wind driven waves. An underlying but slowly decaying, ese to se, 3 foot, swell at 8 to 10 second periods will continue to affect the local waters this period. Normally, it would be pancake conditions looking from the beach. But, this beaten down swell still should make it to the beaches, albeit quite smaller. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Saturday...The sfc pressure pattern and modest gradient will yield w to nw winds at 10 to 15 kt with few higher gusts, thru Sunday Night. This a result of the high`s center being positioned over the Gulf Coast States. By Monday, looking at the approach of a cold front with winds temporarily going sw to w. The sfc pg will remain somewhat modest yielding 10 to occasionally 15 kt speeds. The cfp slated to be a dry one, will occur from late Monday afternoon thru early evening. The sfc pressure pattern and tightened gradient after the cfp will yield n to ne winds at 15 to 20 kt with hier gusts. Significant seas will be on a subsiding trend Sunday through Monday...from 3 to 5 ft dropping to 2 to 3 ft. In addition, the underlying ESE ground swell will have decayed to around 1 foot. Look for the NE wind driven waves to gain prominence Monday night. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 AM Saturday...Tuesday begins turbulent on the waters as a moderate to heavy chop is instigated by frisky NE winds in wake of a dry cold front. A small craft advisory or an exercise caution statement will be needed and likely already in effect by daybreak Tuesday. A stubborn high pressure wedge will maintain a relatively tight packing of the pressure gradient Wednesday and Thursday and this may be a prolonged series of caution headlines and not ideal boating conditions as fresh NE winds maintain moderate windspeeds. No TSTMS or restrictions to visibility expected this period.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 615 AM Saturday...Looks like the next chance for the Lower Cape Fear River to spill out of it`s banks will occur between the hours of 130 pm and 530 pm. At this point, it could breach the Advisory flood thresholds of 5.5 ft MLLW as forecast and observed at the downtown Wilmington lower Cape Fear river gage. The following are high tides for the gage on the Lower Cape Fear River... High tide 3:56 PM on Sat. High tide 4:22 AM on Sun. High tide 4:53 PM on Sun. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ254- 256. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...MJC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...dch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.