Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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125 FXUS62 KILM 270228 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1028 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper disturbance will bring a few showers Tuesday followed by a reinforcement of cooler and drier air through mid week. Summer warmth and humidity will return late week and into the weekend with isolated to scattered thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1000 PM Monday...A few showers along a weak trough were moving by to our N this eve. Some of the associated upstream cloudiness is expected to reach the Forecast Area through the remainder of the night. Any measurable rain is expected to remain N of the area and although POPS were tweaked higher, they remain below threshold for the overnight hours. Dewpoints did recover with the arrival of sunset, but were still in the lower to mid 60s. Given the light winds, and despite the later arrival of at least scattered clouds, temps will cool to the mid and upper 60s overnight with a few lower 60s inland. A cold front on Tue, driven by a healthy upper trough and vort max, will approach from the northwest. The upper system appears likely to be the main rain-maker since deep moisture recovery will not have time to occur. This may mean that NC deserves some slightly higher POPs than SC but for now prefer a broad-brush 30 area-wide since measurable rainfall may not happen at all.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...Any lingering showers and thunderstorms will be ending as the a shortwave exits to the northeast Tue night. The shortwave drags a secondary cold front across the area early Wed with a cooler and much drier air mass building in for the middle of the week. Precipitable water values drop under 0.75 inches Wed and a mid level subsidence inversion develops as the 5h trough exits and weak 5h ridge starts to build. High pressure northwest of the area early Wed shifts east, passing north of the area Wed evening. The high ends up off the coast as the period ends with weak return flow just starting to develop. Subsidence and the abundance of dry air will ensure the period is dry once any lingering activity Tue evening comes to an end. Temperatures will run below climo through the period with lows in the low to mid 60s and highs in the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Long term period will be marked by the return of weather more typical of late June as Bermuda high pressure ridges back into the area. High temperatures will increase from the mid to upper 80s Thursday to the upper 80s to lower 90s for the remainder of the period. Lows will increase from upper 60s to lower 70s thursday night to the low to mid 70s for the remainder of the period. Thursday should be the last dry day with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening, during the rest of the period. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 00Z...VFR through Tue morning. A reinforcing cold front bolstered by a mid-level shortwave will bring isolated to scattered showers Tue afternoon, exiting off the coast Tue eve. There is a very low probability for brief MVFR visibility in showers during this time. Wind speeds will be under 10 kt through the valid TAF period. Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions possible in thunderstorms Sat. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1000 PM Monday...Light winds across the waters through the night and on Tue, less than 10 kt. The direction is expected to back from easterly to NE during the night. Seas will be 2 ft through the period. Just as a light onshore flow seemingly starts getting established early Tue afternoon, another cold front will push through, turning winds to N or NE. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...Northerly flow will develop early in the period as high pressure to the northwest builds in following the passage of cold front. Gradient behind the front is not particularly tight and speeds will remain under 15 kt Tue night. Surface high is quick to move east Wed and Wed night. Northeast flow Tue night into Wed shifts to easterly Wed evening and eventually southeast by the end of the period. Speeds Wed and Wed night will be 10 kt or less. Seas will be around 2 ft through the period. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...SE winds around 10 kt will become S to SW by Thursday night and continue through Saturday though speeds could top out around 15 kt by Saturday. Seas around 2 feet are expected most of the period with a few 3 footers possible Saturday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/MBB SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...RAN AVIATION...RJD

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