Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 031000 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 600 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING CHILLIER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED GUSTY SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...TRENDS ARE POINTING TO LESSENING THREATS WITH THIS LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH...AS OVERALL VIL VALUES SLOWLY DECLINE. TRAINING MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES OVER OUR NE ZONES THROUGH EARLY MORNING. HISTORICALLY THIS LINE HAS PRODUCED VERY LITTLE WIND TO THE SURFACE SO FAR AND THE WEAKENING TREND OVER LAND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...HEADING OFFSHORE A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. RE-GENERATION HOWEVER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE THREAT OF DAMAGING TSTMS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTION ARE EXPECTED TODAY...THE FIRST THIS MORNING AS A LINE OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTM DOWNPOURS PROGRESSES SEAWARD ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC THROUGH MORNING HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE IMPULSING TRACKING ENE OVERHEAD. SO FAR THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT HAD A HISTORY OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS. RE-GENERATION APPEARS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY SEVERE...DURING OR FOLLOWING PEAK HEATING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EVENING. CAPE AXIS OF 2000 J/KG AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE OF 800 J/KG TRACK NE ACROSS THE AREA MID- AFTN TO MID- EVENING. HELICITY FIELDS ARE NOT HIGH BUT ENOUGH LAYERED BULKSHEAR APPEARS AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS 65-70...AND A HYBRID INVERTED-V PROFILE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 4Z. PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND CLOUDS TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO PARTIAL TRAINING OF SCT +TSRA CELLS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...CHIEF HEADLINE THIS PERIOD IS A DRYING AND COOLING TREND...AS MID-LEVEL DRYING GEARS UP WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL SWOOP SE AND BRING GUSTY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BY 10 DEG F. CHILLY MINIMUMS EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW AS UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES BUT DRYNESS ALOFT...SO MAY END UP WITH ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS AT TIMES BOTH WED/THU. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY MONDAY A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH SOUTH BUT AS WE PROGRESS FURTHER TOWARD SUMMER...THESE SYSTEMS STRUGGLE TO MAKE INROADS THROUGH OUR AREA. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE AS WE HOLD TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW. THE ONLY POPS IN THE FORECAST ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MEANDERING UPPER LEVEL LOW FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE VALID TAF CYCLE...AS AN UNSETTLED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. POCKETS OF IFR CIGS IN LOW-BASED STRATUS EXPECTED THROUGH 13Z TODAY. S WINDS 6-11 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW AFTER DAYBREAK WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 21 KTS. SCATTERED TSTMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SURFACE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40-50 KT IN +TSRA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SCT 4SM SHRA THU AND FRI. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION MARINE CONDITIONS TO PRECEDE A COLD FRONT WITH 15-20 KT SW WINDS AND 4-5 FT SEAS OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SEVERE MARINE WINDS OF UP TO 50 KT IN SPOTS. MARINERS SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE HEADING OUT TODAY OR TONIGHT. BUMPY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT...AND BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY MORE TREACHEROUS IN AND NEAR TSTMS...AND KILLER CLOUD TO WATER STRIKES. DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD WILL MAKE FOR STEEP SEAS...RUNNING EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...THE MAIN MARINE HEADLINE THIS PERIOD IS DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS WED AND POTENTIALLY STRENGTHENING THU. THIS IS GOING TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN OFFSHORE NW WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT COOLER AIR TEMPERATURES. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE LOW IS DEEP ENOUGH FOR 25 KT NW WINDS THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. SEAS COULD REACH 5 FT OFFSHORE THU BUT INSHORE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FEET. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...CONSISTENT WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK PERIOD FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THE WATERS WILL BE IN NO MANS LAND...IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS SETUP WILL DELIVER NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE CONSISTENT AS WELL...WITH 2-4 FEET AND THE HIGHEST WAVES FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE FLOW.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MJC/MRR

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