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602
FXUS62 KILM 132328
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
728 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will
generally prevail although a front could near mid week bringing
a bit better rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated POP to reflect latest coverage and expectation that
convection will continue to develop along the sea breeze from
north to south as outflow from earlier storms pushes south
perpendicular to the sea breeze. Instability will start to
decrease the next few hours with coverage gradually decreasing
through the evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Fairly weak weather features impacting the area during the near term
period.  Isolated to scattered, mainly afternoon and evening,
showers and storms, will develop on features like the sea breeze, a
weak surface trough inland, and storm outflows through Monday. Highs
away from the beaches will be in the low to mid 90s with lows in the
low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak flow through the entire column through the period, fairly
typical for July. The Piedmont trough and seabreeze will be the two
main rainmakers, and with very slow and erratic storm motion POPs
will be fairly uniform across the region, but with an earlier
starting time at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Bermuda high and Piedmont trough will continue to be weather map
fixtures for the foreseeable future. The high moisture content will
keep nighttime lows elevated well above seasonable norms while
daytime highs will only tend a few degrees above climatology. Each
day will have a muggy but rain-free night while thunderstorm
coverage each afternoon will be solidly in the chance range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Although storms continue to linger across the region the TAF
sites are currently free from all thunderstorm related impacts.
In fact the only site that may see some MVFR/IFR the next few
hours from storms would be FLO with some new storms starting to
develop north of the site. Storms did move across FLO in the
last hour or so and it is possible the storms currently
developing will move south and find the environment much less
favorable than their current one.

Expecting fog development tonight once lingering debris cloud
from afternoon/evening convection clears out. Light and variable
to calm winds and plenty of low level moisture will create
conditions perfect for fog development. Boundary layer winds are
under 5 kt through the mixed layer, which also bodes well for
fog development. Along the coast, where limited rain fell only
expecting MVFR fog. More rain fell at and around the inland
sites opening the door for potential IFR fog. VFR returns 12-13Z
with potential for storms to affect the inland terminals in the
afternoon. Storm chances at coastal terminals are lower.

Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible
each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early
morning fog/stratus.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...expect S to SE winds of 10 KT or less with seas
invof 2 ft.

Early in the period the Bermuda high will be displaced to the east
some. Locally this means a weaker pressure gradient and fairly tame
winds. With most of the high-induced swells remaining well
offshore that leaves behind only the small wind-driven wave set.
A gradual westward return of the center of the high will add a
category back to wind speed by the midweek period. Seas will
respond by growing by about a foot.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Monday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...ILM