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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 251723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1223 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST...REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 930 AM FOLLOWS...

VERY FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A PATCH OF
CIRRUS IS MOVING OVERHEAD NOW BUT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR ALL
AREAS...COOLEST THE BEACHES WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS. ALL IN ALL...A BEAUTIFUL
DAY FOR LATE JANUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A MULTI-CENTERED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
CROSSING THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THESE THREE LOWS
WILL CONGEAL INTO ONE BY EVENING WELL OFFSHORE EAST OF THE NC/VA
BORDER. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS SYSTEM
BEREFT OF BOTH GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND THEREFORE NOT A BIG
RAINMAKER. THE SYSTEM ALOFT IS QUITE STRONG AND THE MAIN VORT CUTS
TO OUR SOUTH SO ITS TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FEW DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
SPRINKLES IN ADDITION TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. AS THIS SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST COLD AND DRY ADVECTION
LOCALLY WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO TUESDAY AT WHICH
TIME 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT ABOUT -5C. MONDAY WILL THUS BE
SEASONABLE WHEREAS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE CHILLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY
AND THE LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION ENDS. HOWEVER SHALLOW MIXING OF THE
CHILLY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOME ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER CLIPPER
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT IT
WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME VERY SMALL
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR WARRANTED BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED. CHILLY AIR RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DO CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. RETURN FLOW IS SETTING UP AND THE
TERMINALS CAN EXPECT SE-SSW SUSTAINED WINDS 7-11 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WINDS WILL DECREASE
SOME THIS EVENING BUT STILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT 4-8 KT OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BR KCRE/KMYR/KILM THIS EVENING BUT THINK
THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH WIND. MID LEVEL CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SOME MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IFR
CIGS AROUND 12Z. THERE IS NOT CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE THUS
CONFIDENCE IS SMALL. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS 1-1.5K
FEET FOR A SHORT PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA/MVFR CIGS MON. VFR WED-FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 930 AM FOLLOWS...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE NC WATERS AS
BUOY DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT 6 FOOT SEAS WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE.
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH 2-4 FEET
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WAS TO USE RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS (HRRR AND RUC) TO
BETTER DEPICT THE FORMATION OF A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE AIR
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE BEACHES REACHES 10 DEGREES F.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP ON MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WITH MANY CENTERS CROSSES THE AREA EARLY AND CONGEAL WELL
OFF THE COAST. ANY ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND SEAS IF THEY OCCUR WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST ZONES. THIS SYSTEM REALLY
STRENGTHENS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BUT ACCORDING TO WNA WAVE PLOTS
SHOW THAT OUTER BANKS PREVENTS MUCH BACKSWELL LOCALLY SO WIND AND
SEAS BOTH EASING ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. BY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD MAKING FOR VERY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL WAVES.
LIGHT WINDS VEER ALL OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST
AND A CLIPPER AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM UPSTREAM. MUCH OF
THURSDAY WILL BRING A MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT MAY
CALL FOR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THE COLD SURGE THAT HITS THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGS PERHAPS AN ADVISORY LEVEL WIND FIELD BUT FOR WHAT
APPEARS TO BE QUITE A SHORT DURATION.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR