Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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056 FXUS62 KILM 230515 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1215 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will remain well above normal this week. A cold front approaching from the west will bring a slight chance of showers Saturday. Cooler and drier air will build into the area Saturday night and linger for the start of next week. Shower chances will increase during the middle of next week as a cold front approaches from the west. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1045 PM Wednesday...A progressive upper closed low over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, will continue to push east- southeast overnight, reaching the Miami area by daybreak Thu. It`s associated sfc low, having been caught much earlier, will basically take the same route. Not much intensification expected or progged with the sfc and upper lows. In fact, latest satellite and radar imagery make these upper and sfc features look much worse then what they really are. Nevertheless, have kept the ILM CWA pcpn free overnight with possible -shra just offshore during the pre-dawn Thu hours. The thicker and deeper overcast skies will remain south of the ILM CWA. The FA will observe mainly mid and high level clouds with possible low level clouds closer to the coast and especially the southernmost portions of the FA. At this point, will indicate patchy to areas of fog overnight with it scouring out by daylight mid-morning Thu. Cloudiness at different levels will limit, if any, the possibility of observing dense fog. Will continue with current lows with very little massaging applied. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...As the low pressure system moves seaward off the Treasure Coast of FL daybreak Thursday, and across the Bahamas through the day, a slight chance of an ocean shower near the coast locally remains intact, tapering late in the day. Should be a multi-layered mix of low/mid/high clouds, but partly sunny at times through the changeable sky portrait. The warmth entrenched amid the upper level ridging will allow max temps well into the 70s Thursday despite the clouds. As the low loosens it grip to sea Friday with an upper ridge in place, very warm, to record breaking highs on tap, upper 70s to around 80 away from the cooling affects of sea temperatures. No cold air this period with lows in the 50s Thursday and Friday nights. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...Cold front will be pushed across the area late Sat with southerly flow and subsidence ahead of the front contributing to temps well above climo. Front is likely to pass dry for most areas but cannot rule out an evening shower, especially across inland NC. Will maintain inherited slight chc pop but confidence in measurable rainfall is low. Cold advection Sat night into Sun will drop temps back to where they should be for late Feb however, cooler temps are short lived. Mid level pattern transitions to progressive for the start of the work week as the 5h trough lifts northeast. Passage of a warm front Mon may not be accompanied by any rainfall but it will begin a period of warm advection, pushing temps above climo. Low pressure moving northeast through the OH valley will drag a surface trough across the area early Tue. The 5h feature associated with the surface low is weak and deamplifying as it lifts into the northeast so there is really no cold advection behind the boundary. There may be some light isolated shower activity with the trough passage Mon night and Tue, will carry silent pop for now. Deep west flow behind the front Tue helps warm and dry the region with flow becoming more southwest on Wed. Increasing warm advection ahead of approaching cold front will push temps well above climo Tue night through Wed night and may lead to some convection late Wed or Wed night, just ahead of the front. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 06Z...Low pressure over Florida will remain too far south for any significant impacts on the Carolinas. Low-level onshore flow could advect stratocumulus onshore with bases 3000-6000 feet now through this afternoon. Any ceilings should be brief with no flight category impacts. Only other potential problem is some inland MVFR fog this morning through about 13Z affecting the Florence and Lumberton airports. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1045 PM Wednesday...Expect some influence from the upper and sfc lows respectively, moving ese from the northeast Gulf of Mexico this evening, across southern Florida to around Miami by daybreak Thu. This will yield a sfc pressure pattern and relaxed gradient across the ILM local waters, resulting in winds from the E to ESE around 10 kt. Significant seas have been mainly influenced by an easterly ground swell at 9 second periods with short period wind chop thrown on top. Overall, looking at a 2 to 4 foot range, with the higher seas across the southernmost portions of the local waters, ie. south of Murrells Inlet. SCEC and/or SCA will likely be needed during the next period(s). SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...As a low pressure system tonight, moves across FL then offshore THU/FRI, winds will tend to ENE-E THU and NE FRI. No Advisories appear to be needed although inshore winds may gust to 20 KT both THU/FRI afternoon. Friday we will see the arrival SE waves of 3-6 feet arriving in 8-10 seconds intervals and a Small Craft Advisory is possible. Isolated marine showers should be expected Thursday but they will pull to sea on Friday. NO TSTMS expected this period. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...Increasing southwest flow Sat into Sat night will become northwest overnight as a cold front moves east across the waters. Ahead of the front pinched gradient results in solid 20 kt southwest flow. Following the front, the gradient and presence of cold advection will maintain solid 20 kt offshore winds through daybreak. Speeds decrease during Sun, dropping under 15 kt in the afternoon but remain northwest into the evening before dropping under 10 kt and backing to southwest for Monday. Southwest flow Mon will be 10 kt or less. Seas 4 to 5 ft Sat into Sun steadily decrease from 2 to 4 ft to 2 to 3 ft Sun and will be 2 ft or less Mon. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...III AVIATION...TRA/SGL

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