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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 011101
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
656 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL PUSH INLAND TODAY...THEN
WILL STALL OVER THE AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A COASTAL FRONT OFFSHORE IS WORKING ITS WAY
BACK TO THE COAST AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH
MAINTAINS ITS POSITION OVER EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH ASHORE THIS MORNING AND THEN
STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LAYER
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH P/W VALUES IN THE 2 INCH
RANGE THROUGHOUT. IN ADDITION...AT LEAST ONE UPPER SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
AND THEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THUS LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES TODAY BECOME A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR THE VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADIC ACTIVITY. IN
FACT...WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN MULTIPLE...MAINLY WEAK...INDICATIONS
OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION ON THE RADAR AND HAVE ISSUED ONE WARNING FOR
A POTENTIAL TORNADO BASED SOLELY ON RADAR RETURNS. NO TORNADO HAS
BEEN CONFIRMED AS OF THIS WRITING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE REPORTS OF A WEAK TORNADO AT THE END OF THE DAY.

STAGE IS THEREFORE SET FOR A CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED DAY. POPS WILL
BE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL TODAY AND TONIGHT. A POSSIBLY GREATER
THREAT THAN TORNADOS IS THE CHANCE OF LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAIN IN TRAINING STORMS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S MOST PLACES. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS OVERNIGHT
LOWS OF AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE WET AND
COOL...EVEN AS THE PERSISTENT DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN
ACROSS THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
FILL...RELATIVELY LOWERED THICKNESSES WILL PERSIST AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE OH VLY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HAVE
THE EFFECT OF KEEPING THE TROUGH AS THE DRIVING INFLUENCE
ALOFT...WITH CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION ON S/SW MID-LEVEL WINDS. AT
THE SURFACE...COASTAL TROUGH WHICH MOVES INLAND BEFORE THE
PERIOD...WILL STALL ACROSS...OR JUST INLAND...OF THE CWA...PUMPING
MOIST SE WINDS INTO THE AREA AND SERVING AS A CONVERGENT FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALL THIS COMBINES WITH PERSISTENT UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A JET STREAK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE WKND LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MUCH A WASH OUT. MOS
NUMBERS ARE ALREADY CATEGORICAL...BUT WITH NO SINGLE TIME PERIOD
FAVORED...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH-LIKELY FOR THE WKND. QPF COULD
BE QUITE SUBSTANTIAL AS WELL...WITH 1-3" OF RAIN EXPECTED...ALONG
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS.

THE CLOUDS...RAIN...AND LOWERED THICKNESSES WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY-AUGUST...BUT AT THE SAME TIME MAINTAIN NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S BOTH
DAYS...AND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...ATYPICALLY WELL DEFINED (FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR) MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY.
DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL LIFT...WHICH WILL
THEN BE AIDED BY MID LEVEL PVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOC WITH
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC. AND WHILE RAIN CHANCES SEEM TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS
MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTIVE OF HIGH QPF AMOUNTS. THIS MAY BE DUE TO
IT BEING SUCH A CLOUDY DAY THAT VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY MANAGES TO
DEVELOP SAVE FOR PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE PLAYERS
ALL REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE HEADING INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH ALL OF
THEM WEAKEN. LOOKING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH POPS AND SUPPRESSED
AFTERNOON TEMPS. TUESDAY SHOULD BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES BUT STILL
ONES THAT ARE HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WEAKENS...BUT ALSO SENDS ITS REMAINING VORT CENTER ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS THE GFS STRAIGHTENS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. WE ALSO MAY SEE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IN
CONTRAST TO THE EARLY PARTS OF THE PERIOD. TUESDAY MAY THUS BE A
DAY WHERE WE TRANSITION TO MORE SCATTERED AND DEEPER CONVECTION
ESP IF TEMPS START BOUNCING BACK TOWARDS CLIMO. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK SEASONABLE WITH RESPECT TO BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE OF A DRIER
WESTERLY DIRECTION WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL WAVE NORTH OF ILM
BY 13Z...AND MAY AFFECT LBT FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS THIS
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE ACTION AS THIS FIRST
IMPULSE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES AND A
LOW LFC...JUST A BIT OF HEATING WILL LIKELY POP THIS AGAIN AROUND
MIDDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTION WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER WEAK IMPULSES
TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION AT ALMOST ANY TIME. SOUTHEAST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MON AS A FRONT STALLS AND FINALLY DISSIPATES
OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:30 AM FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT OVER THE WATERS WILL PUSH WEST
AND ASHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER FROM PRESENT EASTERLY
DIRECTION TO SE LATER TODAY AND THEN SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY IN THE GENERAL 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3
TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...COASTAL TROUGH WILL STALL INLAND OF THE
WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES THE COASTAL WATERS
PINCHED BETWEEN THE TWO...AND ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK...WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS BOTH DAYS...WITH A S/SE
DIRECTION PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AMPLIFYING...COMBINING WITH A
SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE TO FORM THE ENTIRE WAVE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST INLAND OF THE COAST. WIND CHOP WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 11 SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WEAKENING
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
AND THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH POKES A BIT WESTWARD FURTHER INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN OCCASIONAL INCREASE IN FLOW BY A
FEW KNOTS AND ALSO A SLIGHT VEER FROM S TO SW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK/III
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/JDW/MBB