-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
863
FXUS62 KILM 301759
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
159 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will remain near to above normal early this week
with low rain chances as high pressure prevails. An approaching
cold front will bring higher rain chances and slightly cooler
temperatures mid week. The front will likely move through Friday
with a return of more typical summertime weather through at least
the first half of the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No major changes coming down the track at the 1 PM EDT forecast
update. Main forecast package should be out within the next hour
or so. Updated 18Z TAF discussion found below.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid-level high just south of Bermuda will ridge westward across
the eastern NC and into eastern SC for 1 more day. Like Sun,
convection was able to push thru the weak capping or subsidence
aloft resulting in widely scattered in coverage. Expect this
again today, with the sea breeze and the inland sfc trof as
convergent locations for forcing. PWs in the 1.70s to 1.80s,
slightly lower than Sun. Overall, POPs will be limited to 15 to
34 percent. Will be slow movers, with storm motions generally
NNE 10-15 mph with the main issue being the cloud to ground
lightning and the heavy rain that could result in isolated FLS
issuances. Todays highs in the low 90s away from the immediate
coast function in the 70s dewpoints and the result is Heat
Indices 100-103, remaining below Heat Adv thresholds of 105.
Convective debris clouds should scour out quickly during the
evening. However, a low level SSW-SW 25-30+ mph jet will be
active tonight keeping the boundary layer mixed which should
keep tonight`s mins on the higher side of guidance. In
addition, ground fog will be held at bay however, low stratus
creeps up from the SW to the ILM SC CWA late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As a fairly robust mid-upper trough traverses the Ohio Valley on
Tuesday, an attendant surface cold front will shift eastward
and cross the Appalachians through Tuesday night. With Bermuda
high pressure in place offshore, a tightening pressure gradient
will lead to a breezier day than usual with south-southwest
winds of 10-15 kts and gusts around 20-25 kts on Tuesday.
Otherwise, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and dew points
in the low-mid 70s amidst an uncapped and moderately-unstable
atmosphere, scattered pop-up showers and storms are expected
with focus areas near the sea breeze and inland closer to the
Piedmont thermal trough. Eventually, precip ahead of the cold
front will enter the western zones, but this should hold off
until the evening or overnight hours, with the loss of heating
contributing to an overall decrease in coverage and intensity
of convection. Overnight lows in the low-mid 70s will be near-
normal for this time of year with steady southwest winds around
5-10 kts.

An unsettled period will accompany the cold front during the
day on Wednesday as it slowly progresses to the coast. Given
mid-level height falls and surface convergence along the front,
numerous to widespread showers and storms are expected to
develop, with heavy rainfall the predominant hazard. Due to a
very moist atmosphere with precipitable water values around 2"
and skinny CAPE profiles, efficient rain rates in the 1-3"/hr
range are possible in the stronger storms, leading to an
isolated flash flooding threat where repeat storms occur. With
effective shear magnitudes progged to stay in the 15-25 kt
range, storms will be generally of the short-lived pop-up
variety, although a line segment or two with gusty winds may be
able to organize. Due the anticipated rain and clouds, high
temps should stay in the mid-upper 80s at the warmest, although
some places may not be able to warm as much depending on the
extent of rain and cloudiness.

The front should eventually reach the coast and move offshore by
late Wednesday night, although it will be slowing down and
weakening as it does so. Thus, precip chances will continue well
into the night near the coast. Further inland, dry air and
subsidence aloft will lead to decreasing cloud cover and
slightly lower dew points, with lows in the low 70s inland and
mid-70s near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Global guidance has come into better agreement that mid-upper
troughing will remain over the eastern seaboard through Friday
before shifting eastward. A reinforcing "cold" front is
forecast to shift southward as a closed mid-level low pivots
through southern Quebec into northern New England on Friday.
Ahead of this secondary front, the stalled offshore front and
associated moisture plume will keep somewhat higher than normal
thunderstorm chances near the coast on Thursday before drier air
aloft and subsidence move in behind the secondary front on
Friday and result in more isolated coverage thereafter. This
secondary front will also stall just offshore and should keep
convective coverage isolated over land each day in light of
continued dry air and subsidence aloft, but the coastal areas
may see greater coverage of storms along the sea breeze if the
front wavers close enough to the coast. In addition, there is a
low chance for low pressure to form along the stalled front
which could acquire tropical characteristics. Little more can be
said at this point other than this will be monitored in the
coming days.

Temperatures will run near to slightly-above normal under this
pattern with highs in the low-mid 90s and lows in the low-mid
70s expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High confidence in mainly VFR through the 18Z TAF period. FEW to
SCT cumulus have popped up at 3000-4000 ft, while a couple of
isolated showers formed well to the northwest of KILM, moving
northward. Threw in PROB30 groups for TSRA at each terminal from
18-22Z to indicate the isolated nature of possible convection.
Whatever storms occur should die off after sunset, with SSW
winds continuing. Boundary layer winds stay elevated enough to
avoid fog tonight. Towards the end of the period, winds may
start to gust up to 20 kts.

Extended Outlook...Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening from scattered showers and storms.
The potential further increases mid to late week as a cold
front drops to the area and convection increases both coverage
and intensity.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Bermuda High will continue to dominate the
local waters this period. The sfc pg to tighten this aftn thru
tonight across the local waters which lie between the inland sfc
trof and the well offshore Bermuda high. Looking at SW winds
10-15 kt increasing to 15-20 kt later this aftn thru tonight.
Nearshore waters, the sea breeze will produce S winds 10-15 kt
g20 kt this aftn thru this evening. Models indicate a SW 25-30
kt LLJ will keep the waters and immediate coast rather breezy
thru the night. Convection limited near the coast later this
morning into early aftn. And again later tonight thru daybreak
Tue, with the Cape Fear area possibly observing brief onshore
movements. Seas have been dominated by a 9 second period SE
swell the past several days with aftn/evening sea breeze wind
chop on top. However, with the addition of a low level jet
tonight, look for seas to become more under the influence of the
3 to 6 second period wind driven chop.

Tuesday through Friday...
An approaching cold front will lead to a tightening pressure
gradient on Tuesday while Bermuda high pressure maintains south-
southwest flow over the waters. Sustained winds around 20 kts
with gusts around 25 kts may necessitate a Small Craft Advisory
on Tuesday into Tuesday night, although seas are expected to
remain below 6 ft. As the front draws nearer, it will weaken and
lead to decreasing winds through Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The front should move into the waters late Wednesday on
Wednesday night, bringing scattered to numerous showers and
storms with it. With the front stalling over the waters and
another front pushing into the waters on Friday, shower and
thunderstorm chances will continue through the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents
forecasted for the beaches of Brunswick county, as well as
beaches north of Myrtle Beach in Horry county, for Tuesday and
Wednesday as southerly 6 sec swell builds to 4-5 feet ahead of
approaching cold front. Breaking wave heights around 5 feet may
be possible on Tuesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...DCH/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...