Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 050300 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE SE U.S. COAST...AND THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS... WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND LIKELY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR SEASONAL TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYS HEATING...THE CLUSTER OF EARLIER CONVECTION APPROACHING THE ILM CWA FROM THE SW HAS WEAKENED TO THE POINT WHERE KLTX 88D RADAR RETURNS INDICATE VIRGA OR LEFTOVER DECAYING STRATIFORM LIGHT RAINS ACROSS GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE BEST AND MOST FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE BI-STATE REGION. THEREFORE...WILL INDICATE AN OVERALL LOWERING POP TO ISOLATED CHANCE EARLY ON DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUN HRS. BY DAYBREAK SUN...WILL BEGIN TO RAMP POPS BACK UP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF BOTH ILM NC AND ILM SC CWAS. LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS AND WHATS LEFT OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL S/W TROF TO RE-FIRE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA...MAINLY AGAIN CLOSER TO THE ILM NC-SC COASTS. MIN TEMPS REMAIN UNTOUCHED FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...WITH A 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY...THE CAROLINAS WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WHILE THE COASTAL CAROLINAS REMAIN SITUATED ON THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ILLUSTRATE A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. AS IT EXITS NORTHEASTWARD...A SHORTWAVE LAGS BEHIND ACROSS THE TN/KY BORDER WHICH FORMS INTO A CUT OFF LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND TREKS NORTHWARD. S/W ENERGY FROM THE FEATURE NEARS THE CAROLINAS BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE IT TO MAKE IT TO OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH ITS INFLUENCE ON THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AS WELL AS THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...OTHER LINGERING BOUNDARIES...AND A MOISTURE- RICH ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WITH CLOUD COVER/CLOUD DEBRIS LINGERING EACH DAY...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TREMENDOUS RIDGING AND RECORD HEAT IN THE WESTERN CONUS...A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE CALIFORNIA...CAUSING DOWNSTREAM FLATTENING OF THE FLOW WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING SLOWLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST. AS THE RIDGING INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK...SHORTWAVE FORCING WILL BE MOSTLY DISPLACED NORTH OF THE AREA SO POP WILL REMAIN BELOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CHANCES...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ELEVATED TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EACH DAY. GUIDANCE TRIES TO PUSH A DYING COLD FRONT/TROUGH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS DIVING INTO THE RIDGE SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT WILL SHOW A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY WITH AT LEAST WESTERLY WINDS EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF ON SATURDAY. THE APPROACH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD...SO WHILE TUE/WED AND SAT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY OTHER THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE TYPICAL BOUNDARIES...SLIGHTLY MORE IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE THU/FRI. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 00Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NE ALONG THE COAST HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND VARIABLE WIND GUSTS AT KMYR/KCRE 02-03Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS STORMS SHOULD DECREASE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ENE TOWARDS KFLO/KLBT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING EXPECT MAINLY VCSH FOR THOSE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SW OVERNIGHT THUS NO FOG IS EXPECTED. TOWARDS THE PRE-DAWN HOURS COULD SEE A RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. AFTER SUNRISE SW-WSW WINDS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS DECREASING. BY AFTERNOON THE BEST CHANCE OF VCSH/VCTS WILL BE AT KFLO/KLBT AS WINDS WILL BECOME S-SSW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...TIGHTENED SYNOPTIC SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...AND AN ACTIVE MESOSCALE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS NEAR SHORE AND SW ELSEWHERE...BECOMING SW ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS TO RUN 10-20 KT THRUOUT. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE GUSTS A RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET...AT SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 KT JUST OFF THE DECK. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL MAINLY RANGE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN AT 6 SECONDS...INDICATIVE OF THE SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES OUTPACING THE SMALL 1 TO 2 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL. THE COMBINATION OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FLAG ACROSS ALL WATERS THRU DAYBREAK SUN. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WITH THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NEAR THE AREA COULD CREATE A BRIEFLY TIGHTENED GRADIENT. AS FOR SEAS...WILL SEE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP WITH SW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS WILL BE COMMON WITH LITTLE DIURNAL FLUCTUATION OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR- SHORE SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE W/SW AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES...BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL INLAND FROM THE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-4 FT EACH DAY...WITH A WEAK SE 9 SEC SWELL COMBINING WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT 5 SEC SW WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP THE SPECTRUM.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...SGL LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR

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