Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 031022 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 622 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OCCURRING TODAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA. TWEAKED FORECAST TO MAKE SURE 100 POPS WERE IN PLACE EVERYWHERE TODAY...ALTHOUGH AS THE FORECAST WAS ALREADY FOR CATEGORICAL POPS THIS DOES NOT MAKE FOR MUCH OF A CHANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION IS A CERTAINTY AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WHILE A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE COLUMN NEARLY SATURATED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WITH P/W VALUES IN THE 1.75 INCH RANGE TODAY AND CLOSER TO 1.50 INCHES AFTER MIDNIGHT. COOL AIR ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THE MOIST COLUMN FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MULTIPLE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR TRAINING STORMS GIVEN ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION...SO HAVE RETAINED HEAVY RAIN WORDING FOR TODAY. EXPECTING QPF TOTALS OVER THE NEAR TERM IN THE ONE INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS LIKELY. SPC KEEPS US IN A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING FROM LOCALLY-STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL. SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL HELP KEEP A LID ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY OF RIGHT AROUND 80 MOST PLACES WITH OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS IN THE MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FEATURE THRERFORE POPS WILL BE HIGHEST THURSDAY IN THE LIKELY RANGE. SCALED BACK TO GOOD CHANCE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY WITH CHANCE INLAND. I DID ADJUST TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FRIDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES IS WELL TO THE NORTH DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A ZONAL PATTERN BEYOND THIS. THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF POPS...PRIMARILY ON A DIURNAL BASIS EACH DAY. SURFACE FEATURES ARE WEAK AS WELL WITH HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY THEN A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BRIEF TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY AROUND CLIMATOLOGY WARMING A FEW DEGREES LATER IN THE PERIOD AS A SLIGHT WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS ADDED TO THE WINDS. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BRING AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY AREAS OF FOGS AND LOW CIGS...POTENTIALLY CREATING MVFR/IFR. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS. THIS ALONG WITH PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS COULD CREATE PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR WITH VARYING LOW TO HIGH CLOUD HEIGHTS AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: LIGHT WINDS OF RIGHT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A VERY SLOW- MOVING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MAY MOVE ALONG THE COAST OR OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL STAY IN THEIR CURRENT 2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE EXTENSIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEFINE THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT THE SEA BREEZE AND CONVECTION WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISMS. SYNOPTICALLY A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN WILL WARRANT NORTHEAST WINDS OUTSIDE OF THESE FEATURES. SEAS REMAIN CAPPED AT 1-3 FEET. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOK A LITTLE STRONGER FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE DIRECTION INTACT A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. STILL THE FLOW WILL REMAIN AT THE MERCY OF THE SEABREEZE AND AT LEAST THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION. SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 1-3 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...REK/SGL MARINE...REK/SHK

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