Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 222007 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 307 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN A COOL SURFACE AIR MASS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY LEADING TO PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. THIS AIR MASS LIFTS OUT ON TUESDAY CLEARING THE PATH FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND EVEN MORE MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT MAY ADD SOME THUNDER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FOR CHRISTMAS AND THE DAYS THAT FOLLOW. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE COASTAL FRONT IS STILL LOCK IN ITS LOCATION OFF THE COAST AND EXPECT IT TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OF THE 2 U.S. DETERMINISTIC MODELS THE NAM APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS FEATURE THE BEST BY KEEPING OFF THE COAST LONGER. THE GFS CONTINUES WITH IT INSTANCE TO BRING THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. WITH PAST HISTORY OF MODELS AND IT POOR HANDLING OF COASTAL FRONTS WILL SIDE WITH THE SLOWER NAM MODEL. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL...16 UTC...IS DEPICTING TWO WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06 UTC. ONE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND A SECOND BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURE TO BUDGE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND A LIGHT NORTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 42 AND 45 DEGREES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SHORT TERM WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE WITH A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE EASTERN CONUS. PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST AND FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE. AS IS TYPICAL THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO MOVE THE FRONT ONSHORE EARLY TUE...BUT THIS PROBABLY WONT HAPPEN SAVE FOR THE COAST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY TUE OR EVEN TUE EVENING. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUATION OF LIGHT PATCHY RAIN ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE FRONT AND ITS LOCATION ON TUE WILL DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT. ALONG THE COAST MID TO UPPER 60S IS POSSIBLE WHILE WEST OF I-95 HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50. COASTAL FRONT PUSHES NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JETTING IN THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 45 KT DEVELOPING BY WED MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO. INLAND AREAS MAY END UP WITH TUE HIGHS AND TUE NIGHT LOWS BEING THE SAME OR WITHIN A DEGREE OF EACH OTHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ABOVE 900MB ALONG WITH PVA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES EJECTED NORTHEAST FROM THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH. ALTHOUGH HARD TO PIN DOWN A FAVORED LOCATION/TIME TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY ACTIVE AND WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CATEGORICAL POP. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND IMPRESSIVE JETTING DO NOT THINK DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE STABLE SO WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DUE TO THE ENHANCED GRADIENT DO NOT FORESEE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT. IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES WED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S IN A LOT OF AREAS DESPITE CLOUD COVER. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE STRONG LOW LEVEL JETTING AND AN ABUNDANCE OF SHEAR BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS PEAK MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 200 J/KG WED AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MARGINAL AT BEST. CONTINUE TO EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 35 KT AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER BUT IT SEEMS LIKE A LONG SHOT AT THIS POINT...HENCE SPC HAVING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3. DO THINK RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND 2 INCHES. WORTH NOTING 2 INCHES WOULD BE RIGHT AROUND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR LATE DEC. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP. LATE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF FRONT WILL NECESSITATE KEEPING HIGH POP IN THE WED NIGHT PERIOD THOUGH BASED ON LATEST TIMING THINK PRECIP WILL BE OVER IN MOST AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE NC COAST WHERE PRECIP MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA INTO THU KEEPING WHAT COLD AIR IS PRESENT WELL TO THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE REGION BUT MOISTURE ALOFT WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WED NIGHT LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SUNSHINE WILL MAKE A REAPPEARANCE FINALLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH JUST ENTERING THE CAROLINAS THURS MORNING WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH THE DAY LEAVING A DEEP W-NW FLOW OF DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP THROUGH THE DAY WITH A 20 PLUS DEGREE DROP FROM PREVIOUS DAY. PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY NOON AS COLUMN DRIES OUT. OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING THROUGH THE MORNING WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...GUSTY WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS CLOSER TO 60. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF COAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURS INTO FRI. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ON THURS WILL LIGHTEN UP BECOMING NEAR CALM THURS NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS DOWN IN THE 30S THURS NIGHT. A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH FRI AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT REACHING INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SAT NIGHT. BEST CHC OF PCP WILL COME SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY BUT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SW AS RIDGE HOLDS ON TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE WILL END UP WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS UP IN THE 60S ON SATURDAY WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE 50S MOST PLACES SUN AND MON ESPECIALLY IF LOW CLOUDS HANG AROUND.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...CIGS REMAIN AOB 600-700 FEET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VSBYS ARE VFR...BUT MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING IN AREAS OF RAIN/BR AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS MOVING NE MAINLY BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. KFLO/KLBT STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF HAVING 700-900 FT CIGS/VFR VSBYS...BUT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY DROP VSBYS AT TIMES TO MVFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AT THOSE TERMINALS. EXPECT WORST CIGS/VSBYS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS EVENING BUT A SATURATED LOW LEVEL AND LOWERING LOW-LEVEL INVERSION SUGGEST CIGS/VSBYS APPROACHING 200 / 1/2 AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. KFLO/KLBT SHOULD HAVE THE BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS BUT STILL AOB 600/2. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AT KCRE/KMYR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES...BUT THE REMAINING TERMINALS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF REMAINING AOB 600/2. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LIFR/IFR CIGS TUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS LATER IN THE DAY. WED EXPECT SHOWERS/MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTY WEST WINDS AND VFR THU BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR FRI/SAT. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE COASTAL FRONT REMAINS EAST OF FRYING PAN SHOALS AND THE BEST NUMERICAL MODEL KEEPS THIS FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS SHOULD RUN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT. AS LONG AS THE COASTAL FRONT STAYS TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS THERE SHOULD BOT BE A THREAT OF SEA FOG. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...COASTAL FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS TUE WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING THE FRONT...AND THE RESULTING STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT. GUIDANCE IS USUALLY TOO FAST TO MOVE THE FRONT INTO THE COLDER AIR AND TUE APPEARS TO BE NO DIFFERENT. THUS CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE TREND FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT DELAYED UNTIL TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOMORROW BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TUE NIGHT. SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED WILL BE INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE AT TIMES...BUILDING SEAS ACROSS ALL WATERS OVER 6 FT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED PROBABLY STARTING CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH WED AND WED NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. COLD ADVECTION IS LACKING BUT GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE ON THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE GULF COAST. GUSTY W-SW WINDS EARLY THURS WILL VEER AROUND BECOMING WEST THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS UP AROUND 5 TO 7 FT SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY THURS AFTN WITH HIGHEST SEAS GETTING PUSHED FARTHER OFF SHORE IN STRONGER W-NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER TO THE NW AND LIGHTEN UP LATE THURS INTO FRI AS CENTER OF HIGH SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. SEAS WILL BE DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THURS NIGHT AND DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH MORE VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW UNDER 15 KTS SETTING UP. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS BACK UP CLOSER TO 3 TO 4 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MRR

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