Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 291751
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
151 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016
High pressure will continue to bring oppressive heat and humidity
to the region through Saturday. The high will begin to break down
over the weekend leading to increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms beginning Sunday and continuing through the middle
of next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11 AM Friday...Latest heat indices remaining between 95 and
100 degrees late this morning, about 4 to 5 degrees below
yesterday at this time. Drier moderate to strong westerly
downslope winds have allowed dewpoint temps to drop in places
while 850 temps were running below 19c keeping overall temps a
couple of degrees less than yesterday. Therefore, although it is
hot, heat indices should remain below 105 and a heat advisory
should not be needed this afternoon.
Overall high pressure ridge remains to the southeast and a
Piedmont trough continues to the west. Cu field was developing
mainly I-95 corridor and west and along sea breeze boundary.
Convective indices point to best chc of convection inland along
piedmont trough or even farther west toward the mountains.
Otherwise could see isolated shwrs/tstms pulse up along sea breeze
boundary mainly from Cape fear northward. The westerly steering
flow will guide a any shwrs/tstms east but expect them to
dissipate as upper level ridging and drier air remain to the east.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Friday...The bad news is on Saturday and Sunday the 850
temperatures creep up to 20 degrees Celsius so expect to see heat
advisories reposted for the forecast area for Saturday and Sunday.
The good news is that the Piedmont trough is forecast to shift
closer to the coast and chance for convection increases with some
needed rain and may temper some of the heat. By Sunday night the
models stall a frontal boundary over north central North Carolina
late sunday night.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 AM Friday...The extended period will feature a decent mid level
trough that moves across the east coast by Wednesday. The associated
cold front will make it to the area and basically dissipate. Overall
the best combination of higher PW and synoptic forcing occurs Monday
and Tuesday. Have continued to carry high chance to likely pops for
these days. Much drier air at the mid levels sinks into the area
Wednesday but low levels are mostly unchanged, therefore continued
with much lower pops but there could still be some coverage. WPC
days 4-5 QPF shows decent amounts for Monday and Tuesday.
Temperature forecast cools slowly through the period from well above
seasonal normals Monday to near average by Thursday.
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 18Z...VFR through the valid taf cycle. SCT040 in CU/TCU but
upper ridge may suppress VCTS development. Any formation of TSTMS
will be very isolated in scope. Winds W-SW 7-12 KT gusts to 19 KT
between 18z-22z. WSW winds overnight 4-9 KT, increasing aft 15Z
Sat to W-WSW 7g16 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon convection
Sunday and onward through the forecast will create fleeting and
localized MVFR/IFR. Otherwise expect VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11 AM Friday...Southwest winds will continue as the Bermuda
High remains suppressed to the south of the coastal waters. The
nocturnal low- level jet will weaken during the day and the winds
of 15 to 20 knots over the waters before sunrise today. This will
result in the surface winds falling to 10 to 15 knots during the
day. Seas will continue to run 2 to 3 ft with 4 ft seas especially
10 miles off the coast.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Friday...The synoptic pressure pattern has changed
little through this period. The only slight change is the Piedmont
trough shifts a little closer to the coast and winds will be around
10 to 15 knots as pressure gradient weakens a tad. Late on Sunday
a cold front will move into the central sections of North Carolina
and a low-level jet develops overnight and winds will increase to 15
to 20 knots. Seas will fluctuate between 2 to 4 feet through the
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Friday...Southwest winds of 10-15 knots will continue
across the waters Monday and Tuesday. A front will be crawling
toward the area late Tuesday but indications are the brief wind
shift will be just after this valid time period. Significant seas
will be 1-3 feet.