Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 291630
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1230 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will stay in the area through Tuesday until the tropical
system makes its slow departure. Moisture will hang around for
most of the week so while sunshine should return in part there
will still be a scattering of storms each day. A cold front will
approach next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1220 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Bonnie is nearly
stationary near Charleston SC this afternoon. Latest guidance
keeps it more or less in this location through the overnight hours
while it continues to spin waves of showers, with a very few
embedded thunderstorms, ashore. Wind is still not considered a
threat and area obs continue to show surface speeds in the 10 to
15 kt range with gusts up around 25 mph. Heavy rain and the
attendant risk for localized flooding or ponding of roadways is
still considered the primary threat for the remainder of today
and tonight. Latest Hurricane Center advisory has Bonnie making a
slow drift northwards into interior eastern SC through tomorrow
morning before making a turn to the east and then NE towards the
Cape Fear region. Although SPC does not have us in any enhanced
risk category for tornados, a quick spin-up is not out of the
question, so we will be keeping a close eye out for any suspicious
circulations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Bonnie may be a tropical depression before the
start of the period. The system or its remnants will be in the area
through the period as it moves slowly up along the Carolina coast.
The current forecast track has it lifting north of the Cape Fear
area Tue night. This will keep the weather unsettled, but drier air
and subsidence will eventually reach the area. Thus, would expect a
greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms throughout Mon with
coverage perhaps shrinking inland on Tue, but still high along the
coast. We are still forecasting total rainfall amounts in the 2 to 3
inch range although higher amounts will be possible.

Thick cloud cover Mon will be shrinking from W to E Tue and Tue
night and this will result in slightly warmer temps inland on Tue.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...The moisture directly associated with
Bonnie should be out of the picture by Wednesday. Sufficient
moisture will remain for scattered showers and storms however
especially if some upper troughiness remains behind. Rain chances
should arguably wind up just a bit higher over northern zones. No
more mid level trough on Thursday but a poorly defined surface
pressure pattern will remain. The sea breeze and outflow
boundaries should still manage to produce appreciable coverage of
mainly diurnal storms. The former should make good progress
inland. Rain chances then rise a bit Friday and maybe moreso
Saturday as the next upper trough and surface cold front approach
from the north and west.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 18Z...A meandering tropical depression will give lots of
opportunities for intermittent showers through the forecast period.
Gusty southeast winds this afternoon along the coast, a bit more
northeasterly inland and not as strong. Ceilings will bounce around
a lot, but will remain predominately near IFR.  The NAM is
portraying convection continuing through the overnight hours,
possibly with the best coverage toward morning. Monday, more of the
same as the low remains nearly stationary.

Extended Outlook...Unsettled weather through Thursday with possible
SHRA/isolated TSRA and TEMPO MVFR/IFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1220 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Bonnie is nearly
stationary near Charleston SC this afternoon. Latest guidance
keeps it more or less in this location through the overnight
hours. Small Craft advisories continue for all waters into the
evening hours. Latest obs show 5 to 7 ft seas for much of our
area. Expect we will be able to drop the advisories sometime
tonight.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Bonnie may be a tropical depression by the
start of the period. The depression or its remnants will slowly
lift north along the upper South Carolina coast and the southeast
North Carolina coast...perhaps lifting north of the Cape Fear
waters Tue night. This will keep showers and thunderstorms across
the waters for much of the period. South winds will hold across
the waters Mon and Mon night. As what is left of Bonnie lifts
slowly away from the area Tue and Tue night...winds should come
around to a more NW or N direction. Seas will be 4 to 5 ft Mon,
subsiding to 3 to 4 ft by Tue and then 2 to 3 ft Tue night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Decreasing wind and seas through the period
as tropical system moves off to the north and east. Wednesday`s
wind direction forecast may need some refining as there is still
guidance that stalls the system very near the area until then. Not
so by Thursday at which time the system`s exit will bring a west
wind that will then back to southerly as west Atlantic high
pressure takes hold.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/RJD
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43 MARINE...REK/RJD/MBB


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