Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 271051 RRA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
651 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAKER COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO
MID- WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
RALEIGH TO SOUTHERN PINES...AND WADESBORO INTO UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THE MILD SUBTROPICAL
AIRMASS JUST LONG ENOUGH AFTER 12Z/8 AM EDT TO KEEP TODAY`S DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE INTO THE 50S BY 10 AM...NOT TO RECOVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVERWHELMS WHAT LITTLE HEAT
IS ABLE TO FILTER THROUGH THE CLOUDS. MOS GUIDANCE TYPICALLY
STRUGGLES IN THESE SITUATIONS AND MY FORECAST IS A LARGELY BLEND OF
THE RAW 00Z NAM...00Z WRF-NMM AND 07Z HRRR MODELS.

PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD COME IN THREE WAVES.
WAVE #1 IS EXITING THE CAPE FEAR AREA NOW AND SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. WAVE #2 COVERS THE WESTERN HALF
OF NC AND IS ON THE COLD FRONT ITSELF AND SHOULD BEGIN IN LUMBERTON
AND FLORENCE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...SPREADING DOWN
TOWARD THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OF THE PRECIP WAVES...WITH FORECAST POPS 80-100 PERCENT
AND QPF .10 TO .20 INCHES.

WAVE #3 OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES OVERHEAD AND ENCOUNTERS A LITTLE 800-700 MB
MOISTURE THAT SNEAKED SOUTH OF THE APPALACHIANS...AVOIDING THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW. ALTHOUGH I AM CAPPING POPS TONIGHT AT 20
PERCENT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECASTS EARLIER IN THE WEEK
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF SNOW TONIGHT...BUT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS
THE FREEZING LEVEL NEVER MAKES IT DOWN BELOW 2000-2500 FEET
AGL...TOO DEEP A "WARM" LAYER FOR SNOW TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.

GIVEN CLOUDS AND STEADY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT I AM FORECASTING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE MOS
NUMBERS...WHICH APPEAR TO BE TOO COOL GIVEN THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE RAW GFS/NAM MODELS LOOK MUCH MORE REASONABLE WITH UPPER
30S INLAND AND AROUND 40 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...CLEARING SKIES...BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MOISTURE PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 50S.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY MORNING LOWS. ALL GUIDANCE IS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING SANS A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE SREF GUIDANCE. THERE IS STILL SOME WIND
EXPECTED AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. MODEL FIELDS SHOW ONE FINAL DECENT VORT ROTATING
ACROSS SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. STILL ALL SIGNS POINT TO A
SIGNIFICANT FREEZE. BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RAISE THE FREEZE WATCH. I WOULD ANTICIPATE
ALL AREAS BEING IN THE WATCH. NOT A LOT OF WARMING FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL PROFILES ARE SLOW TO RECOVER. WINDS WILL
DROP OFF HOWEVER MAKING IT FEEL NICER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS AS A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
ALOFT. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN UNEVENTFUL
FASHION TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS OF FLEETING SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. BEYOND THIS THE PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES VERY DIFFUSE
AS THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS TO THE SOUTH THEN WASHES OUT WITH A RETURN
FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST
STARTS OUT ON THE COOL SIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH READINGS WARMING
TO EXCEED CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MAIN DIFFICULTY TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE PRECIP...AS WELL AS THE CEILINGS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING...REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEST TIMING WILL
BE BETWEEN 15-19Z TIME FRAME. THIS WINDOW COULD SEE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP WITH POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITIES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS
BUT COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS AT AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. POST
FRONTAL...LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH FAIRLY LOW CEILINGS
LINGERING POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WILL REACH THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS
COLD AIR BLASTS OFFSHORE. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO HIGH PRESSURE UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS LATE IN MARCH.

SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE DIED DOWN TO 10-15 KT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN WIND SPEED OR DIRECTION SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL THE ACTUAL
FRONT ARRIVES...PROBABLY IN THE 1-3 PM TIMEFRAME.

SEAS CURRENTLY 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND 4-6 FT ACROSS THE NC
WATERS WILL CHANGE LITTLE UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THE NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW SEA HEIGHTS NEARSHORE TO DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...HEALTHY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF
THE DAY SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY
ACROSS THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND TO THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE RETURN FLOW AND AN
APPROACHING BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY
AND OFFSHORE WITH A RANGE OF 3-5 FEET. HEIGHTS BACK OFF CONSIDERABLY
SUNDAY TO 1-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...A DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS LATE MONDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE
15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TUESDAY A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS AND
IS BRIEFLY STRONG WITH 15-20 KNOTS AS WELL. UNDER A QUICK MOVING
ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT THE HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LEAVING LIGHTER WIND FIELDS. SEAS DROP BACK
TUESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL


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