Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 291751
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
151 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the area from offshore through
Sunday. Near record high temperatures today in a few places and
still warm and humid on Sunday. A cold front will bring a
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms late Monday into early
Tuesday. High pressure will follow for the mid-week period. A
Low pressure system will impact the region Thursday into Friday
amd may bring widespread showers and thunderstorms and heavy
rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 AM Saturday...Near record high temps today, lower 90s
inland and upper 80s to near 90 closer to the coast. Only the
beaches will hold in the lower to mid 80s.

Location            Predicted High      Record High
Wilmington          87                  92 set in 1975
North Myrtle Beach  81                  90 set in 2002
Florence            91                  91 set in 1981
Lumberton           91                  no established record

A very humid air mass will continue to maintain dewpoints near
70 to the lower and mid 70s this afternoon. A strong seabreeze
will push slowly inland and this will kick winds up to 15 to 20
mph with higher gusts along and on the marine side of the
boundary.

A shallow layer of moisture will allow cumulus clouds to
develop, but with dry air aloft, the clouds should lack vertical
depth and are not expected to grow sufficiently to support any
showers, even along the sharp seabreeze this afternoon and eve.

Tonight, winds above the boundary layer should be sufficiently
strong to preclude widespread fog development. However, soundings
and moisture profiles show low stratus redeveloping on a fairly
widespread basis. It will be a warm and muggy night with lows
near 70 to the lower and mid 70s, warmest at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Chances for convection increase through
the period as a cold front moves east across the coastal
Carolinas, with a deep upper trough descending upon central
CONUS. High pressure over the western Atlantic will retreat east
as the cold front approaches, with Sunday being generally dry
other than some spotty afternoon sea-breeze related convection.
POPs increase on Monday, maxing out in the likely category
Monday night as the front moves across the forecast area. Steady
SW flow in advance of the front will maintain above-normal
temperatures for both days, with highs in the mid 80s (lower at
the coast) and lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...A cold front will move off the coast Tue
morning and high pressure along the Gulf Coast will slide east
and then offshore to our S during Wed. This should bring a dry
period. Deep low pressure will move out of the mid south and
Gulf coast states Wed, lifting slowly to the NE. Its associated
cold front will move into the Southeast states Thu-Thu night,
bringing the risk for robust thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 18Z Saturday...High confidence in VFR conditions into this
eve. Then expect widespread IFR ceilings in stratus to develop
across the terminals after 03-05z. The stratus should burn off
similarly to this past morning, around 13-14z. Unclear whether
the stratus will work its way down to the surface to produce
visibility restrictions due to fog overnight. The wind profile
does show winds subsiding overnight, but the moisture profile is
more conducive for stratus than fog.

S to SSW winds will remain gusty at the coastal terminals
through about 00-01z due to the seabreeze circulation, gusts up
to 20 to 22 kt.

Extended outlook...Periods of IFR/MVFR conditions are possible
in showers and thunderstorms late Monday into early Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 AM Saturday...Southerly return flow around offshore
high pressure will keep winds from the S through tonight. Wind
speeds will be sustained at 10 to 15 kt, however, across the
near shore waters, a stout seabreeze circulation will bring
wind gusts up to 20 kt or so this afternoon and early eve.
Seas will be around 3 ft throughout.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Increasing SW flow in advance of the
next cold front will make it likely that a Small Craft Advisory
will need to be issued on Monday for winds gusting up to around
30 kt. By Monday night seas will have built to 4 to 7 ft
although winds may slacken in the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday as
the front makes its close approach. Sunday looks to be the
better day for boating, with seas of right around 3 ft and winds
of 10 to 15 kt.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...In the wake of the cold frontal passage
early Tuesday, offshore winds will slowly diminish. The offshore
trajectories will knock seas down and should drop below Small
Craft Advisory levels by Tuesday afternoon. There are no
concerns for Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...RJD


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