Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 250143
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
943 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Maria is expected to remain offshore as it moves very
slowly north, with its center passing within 250 miles of the
Cape Fear coast through Wednesday. Hazardous beach and boating
conditions will continue for much of the week. A cold front is
expected to reach the area Friday, bringing cooler weather for
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 900 PM Sunday...Hurricane Maria will continue to bring
hazardous beach conditions with strong and frequent rip currents
through Mon and thus the National Weather Service continues the
High Rip Current Risk hazard. These strong rips will be
enhanced around the time of low tide, but there is no time when
it will be safe to be in the water for much of the week. Low
tide is at 5 am and 6 pm Mon.

The surf will be high and rough as well with powerful breaking
waves as high as 6 to 8 ft thus the National Weather Service
continues the High Surf Advisory. These breaking waves will
allow for at least minor beach erosion, especially during the
time of high tide. Also, water levels will be high and there is
a small risk for minor coastal flooding around the time of high
tide on Mon, especially from Cape Fear to Surf City. High tide
is at 11p tonight and noon on Mon.

The H85-H5 layer remains dry and the low-level trajectory will
keep any showers offshore until perhaps later Mon afternoon and
then primarily for the immediate Cape Fear coast. Otherwise
considerable high clouds will remain across the area through the
period. Cloud layers will lower and thicken along the coast
during Mon.

Breezy conditions are expected to continue, mainly along the
coast, where the northeasterly pressure gradient will increase
most significantly. NE to NNE winds will gust as high as 25 to
30 mph at the beaches with lesser wind gusts as you traverse
inland.

Lows will be mainly in the 60s tonight. Highs on Mon will be in
the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...This period will basically function off the
indirect and possible direct effects generated by Hurricane Maria as
she tracks northward during this week over the open waters of the
Atlantic remaining well offshore from the U.S. mainland which
includes the local FA. The exception is the Outer Banks of NC which
will see Maria`s closest approach.

Once the generally troffiness associated with Jose off the Mid-
atlantic and New England coasts dissipates, modest to strong upper
level ridging will take it`s place. This will slow Maria`s forward
northward movement with models indicating her well offshore from
Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras latitude by Wed morning. With this
track, enough of it`s expansive pressure field and moisture will
result in breezy NNE-NNW winds across the local area during this
period with the hiest winds along the immediate coast, especially
from Cape Fear northward.

As for pcpn chances associated with Maria, locations across coastal
southeast NC will be under a slight RW- chance beginning late Mon
night thru Tue. The ILM SC CWA will remain pcpn free this period.
With the mid-levels remaining quite dry thruout this period, the
cirrus shield associated with Maria will encompass all of the ILM
CWA. The lower levels will see a moisture increase across all
locations, with the deeper low level moist profile across areas from
Cape Fear northward. PCPN will be produced from the low level clouds
and remain below 0.10 inches total thruout this period. Temperatures
will continue to run at 1 to possibly 2 categories above the climo
norms. The thick cirrus shield and eventual low level clouds will
limit highs across the Cape Fear northward region, but still above
climo.

Beaches along the entire ILM CWA will be under a High Surf Advisory
and High Rip Current threat for the majority of this period. This a
result of 6 to 9 foot long period Maria swell affecting the local
waters for an extended period of time.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Maria, forecast to be well to the east-
northeast of the area at the onset of the period, will continue
moving north and east away from the area.  A cold front will
drop into the area Thursday night and move out to sea Friday,
ushering in cooler and drier air for the weekend.

Outside of a small chance of showers Wednesday, mainly over
northeast sections of the forecast area, the extended range
looks mainly dry.  High temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90
Wednesday and Thursday will cool to the mid 70s by Sunday.  Min
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s Wednesday night
will cool to the upper 50s to lower 60s by Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 00Z...Will maintain a VFR forecast at all the terminals
through the valid period. The center of Hurricane Maria will
continue to move N and at its closest approach, it should pass
within 250 miles of the Cape Fear coast Tue-Wed.

The wind direction will be NNE to NE through the period. Expect
wind gusts to about 20 kt at the coastal terminals for much of
Mon. High level ceilings are expected to lower to 4-6 kft at the
coastal terminals by late morning or early afternoon on Mon.
Will introduce some stratus at KILM, but will keep the layer SCT
near 1 kft with this forecast package.

Extended Outlook...MVFR ceilings may develop at the coastal
terminals as stratus advects onshore Mon night and Tue. Wind
speeds at the coastal terminals will gust as high as 15 to 25 kt
Mon through Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 900 PM Sunday...Hazardous seas continue across the waters
with powerful swell energy generated by Hurricane Maria
dominating the wave spectrum. Wind energy continues to increase
atop this swell with wave heights as high as 7 to 11 ft this
eve. Seas are expected to grow another foot or two through Mon.

The wind direction this eve was from the NE and will slowly back
to the NNE on Mon. Wind speeds will be up to 20 to 25 kt with
gusts up to around 30 kt, highest across the outer waters.

Hurricane Maria is expected to continue a slow track to the N,
with its center expected to be within 250 miles of the Cape Fear
coast as it moves to our N through Wed.

Showers should gain proximity through Mon, perhaps increasing in
number Mon night.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...SCA conditions will continue across the
area waters thruout this period. With the local waters on the
westward side of Hurricane Maria as she tracks northward,
remaining well offshore from the local area, wind directions
will run from the NNE- N Mon night into Tue, and from the NNW-NW
there-after as Maria`s eye moves north of the local latitude.
The sfc pg associated with Maria, will be conducive to wind
speeds in the 15 to 25 kt range south of Little River Inlet and
20 to 30 kt north of this Inlet. Could see Gale Gusts from Cape
Fear northward thruout this period.

Significant seas this period will be dominated by the 13-16 second
period, ESE-SE Maria Swell. The short period locally produced NNE-
NNW wind waves will create choppy conditions on top of this swell.
This a result of a limited fetch. The area inlets to and from the
Atlantic as well as the mouths of Cape Fear River and Winyah Bay
will experience dangerous and hazardous navigating conditions.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Northwest winds of 15 to 25 KT Wednesday
morning will diminish to 10 to 15 KT by Thursday morning.  A
shift to the north then northeast will occur Friday and Friday
night.  Seas of 4 to 7 FT south and 7 to 9 FT north Wednesday
AM will gradually subside through the period, falling to
2 to 3 FT by Friday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for SCZ054-056.
     High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ054-056.
NC...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for NCZ106-108-
     110.
     High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ106-108-110.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/SRP
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...RJD



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