Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 240758

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
258 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Warm air will prevail across the Carolinas through Saturday.
A cold front approaching from the west will move offshore late
Saturday. Cooler and drier air will build in Saturday night
through Monday. Shower chances will increase mid week as a warm
front moves across the area Tuesday followed by a cold front


As of 300 AM Friday...Barotropic low pressure located a couple
hundred miles off the Florida east coast will slowly move
northeastward today, reaching a position about 300 miles off the
North Carolina coast late tonight. With very little low-level
baroclinicity to work with, this low is essentially a reflection of
what was a strong upper level system over the past few days, now
weakening with time.

Easterly low-level flow north of the Atlantic low will continue
today with the coast running a good 5-10 degrees cooler than inland
locations. The overall airmass is unseasonably warm for this date
with 850 mb temps of +10C to +11C. This should yield highs around 80
inland with mid 70s for the coastal cities, and perhaps only 70 on
the beaches themselves.

Record highs for today...
wilmington       81 set in 1982
florence         82 set in 1962
n myrtle beach   78 set in 1996

The Carolinas will be located in a col for much of tonight between
the Atlantic low to the east and the pressure trough associated with
a cold front advancing eastward across Tennessee and Kentucky. Light
winds, good low-level moisture, and mainly clear skies may allow for
areas of fog to develop. Lows in the low to mid 50s.


As of 300 AM Friday...Low pressure moving northeastward through the
Great Lakes on Saturday will drag a cold front into the eastern
Carolinas Saturday evening. Ahead of this front the unseasonably
warm airmass will continue for one final day with highs anticipated
to reach the lower 80s inland with 70s along the immediate coast.

While moisture on Saturday will extend up through 850 mb, the 800 mb
layer and above is bone dry. A zone of upper divergence and deep
lift associated with the right entrance region of a jet max moving
through the Great Lakes affects Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic coast,
leaving us to the south capped. I am removing PoPs for Saturday with
the expectation that we`ll see some moderate cumulus develop during the
day capped off by a layer of warm and very dry air between 6000-10000
feet AGL.

The cold front itself will move offshore Saturday evening, with cold
advection overnight bringing is much cooler and drier air. Lows
should reach 40-45, with dewpoints Sunday morning in the 20s. Highs
on Sunday will barely reach 60 even with full sunshine. As the next
high moves overhead Sunday night look for lows to fall into the 30s
to lower 40s, with some potential that some normally colder inland
areas could see frost.


As of 300 AM Friday...A broad southwest flow aloft will prevail through
Wednesday of the extended period. After this a broad trough will
move across with a cold front at the surface early Thursday. For
Monday through Wednesday a complex scenario with warm
advection/front moving across. Guidance has seemingly become
slightly more bullish with pops from late Monday through early
Tuesday as the warm front is coupled with a shortwave aloft. The
forecast has trended in this direction. Somewhat of a lull in pops
later Tuesday into early Wednesday before activity ahead of the
previously mentioned cold front ramps up. With regards to
temperatures, the theme of unusually warm readings rolls on with
highs in the 70s sans Thursday along with very warm overnight


As of 06Z...HRRR keeps isolated showers away from the coastal
terminals this morning with weak coastal trough off the se coast.
concern will be for local IFR conditions in FG between 09-13z this
morning. Latest satellite loop showing mainly cirrus shield from low
to our se moving to the ne with the coastal sites on the fringe of
these high clouds. Inland terminals have cleared but could see some
stratus develop with FG. Otherwise VFR through the remainder of the
evening as well as soon after sunrise friday.

Extended Outlook...VFR.


As of 300 AM Friday...Low pressure about 200 miles east of Cape
Canaveral will move slowly northeastward today while weakening. The
pressure gradient between this low and high pressure out beyond
Bermuda will create a considerable easterly fetch extending from
Bermuda to just east of the Outer Banks. Large swells generated
within this zone will continue to move through the Carolina coastal
waters today and tonight with Small Craft Advisories continuing. At
last check combined seas at the Frying Pan Shoals buoy were 8.5 feet
every 9 seconds. Even 10-20 miles from shore seas could still reach
7 feet today. Conditions will slowly begin to improve tonight,
especially south of Cape Fear.

As of 300 AM Friday...Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes on
Saturday will drag a cold front into the coastal Carolinas Saturday
evening. Southwest winds ahead of the front should increase to 15-20
kt by late Saturday afternoon, then will shift northwesterly behind
the front Saturday night as colder air moves into the region.
Depending on how long the strong winds blow in the vicinity of the
front we could get another period of Small Craft Advisory conditions
out of this. High pressure centered over Tennessee Sunday morning
will move almost overhead Sunday night, bringing much lighter
veering winds.

As of 300 AM Friday...South to southeast winds will be in place most
of the period. Speeds will be a little sluggish Monday around ten
knots or so. By Tuesday speeds pick up somewhat to a 10-15 knot
range as a warm front moves across. Significant seas offer nothing
out of the ordinary with 1-3 feet.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ254-
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252.


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