Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 300549
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
149 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will enter the area and stall through Tuesday night.
Another front will push in from the northwest on Wednesday and
just barely clear the region Thursday. It may return northward
as a warm front Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 145 AM Tuesday...strong convection has moved offshore but
scattered showers with iso tstms continue to redevelop to the
west. This will persist into daybreak before drying occurs.
Previous discussion below:

As of 300 PM Monday...

For Tuesday, similar progression as today with a stable NVA scenario
in the morning hours. Guidance shows a more diffuse pattern of
convection for the afternoon hours and we are still advertising
pops, although the better chances appear to be shaping up for
tonight.

Thermal profiles appear to be unchanged from today for Tuesday, at
least on the 12 UTC guidance and Tuesday may actually be just as
warm as today as we may fall just short of the lower 90s expected
today. Overnight lows, stuffy once again mostly in the 70s with
maybe an upper 60 or two once again assisted by thunderstorm cooled
air.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Frontal boundary stalled right along the coast
Tuesday night. So even as some weak vorticity energy passes overhead
the area should be too stable for anything other than very isolated
showers. And although heading into Wednesday a piedmont trough/weak
front does form west of here most guidance keeps the deep layer
moisture off the coast. This should once again keep minimized the rain
chances over land, the sea breeze being the most likely culprit in
bringing an isolated thunderstorm. Temperatures through the period
will average about 3 degrees above seasonable norms.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...An active weather pattern expected during this
period...mainly after Thursday. Looking at the longwave pattern
aloft...the FA will remain basically under the influence of an upper
trof at the start of this period(Thursday). Models develop split
upper flow across the area by the weekend with west to nw flow from
Canada associated with the longwave trof...and at the same time,
flow from the lower latitudes with some Pacific and Gulf of Mexico
influences. With the mean trof axis remaining just west of the FA,
mid- level s/w trofs from 2 different origins will be able to track
across the FA or in close proximity. Avbl moisture will not be a
problem.

At the sfc, short-lived dry high pressure from the NW will affect
the FA on Thu. There-after, the high anchored well off the SE U.S.
Coast will ridge back to the U.S. with it`s axis extending inland
vcnty of GA-FL, well south of the FA. A sfc cold front will drop to
the FA late Fri and likely stalling across a portion of the ILM CWA
during the upcoming weekend and into next week. POPs will be at
their lowest during Thu then ramping up slowly Fri and peaking
during the weekend into next week. Any mid-level s/w trofs ie. upper
disturbances, that affect the FA will likely be the factor that
determines whether severe thunderstorms will occur. I might be
overly optimistic in pushing the stalled front south of the FA by
Mon, given the time of year. Max temperatures will run at or
slightly hier than normal depending on cloud cover and pcpn
occurrence. Min temps will run likely 5+ degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 06Z...Scattered showers and tstms will persist through
daybreak, but will feature a weakening and dissipating trend during
this time. All terminals have the potential to see activity through
daybreak, so have carried VCTS at each one. Since the coverage is
expected to be scattered, will handle specific restrictions due to
TS with AMDs as necessary, as any MVFR/IFR will be short lived.

Convection will end by daybreak and other than mid-level debris
cloudiness which could be extensive, drier low levels in the column
will prevent much shower or tstm activity through the day so VFR is
expected with light W/SW winds AOB 10 kts. A cold front will
approach from the NW late in the period with increasing shower
potential, but widespread or strong tstms are not forecast.
Confidence is too low in coverage and location attm for a TAF
mention, and have just shown mid-level cigs at the end of the period.

Extended Outlook...A slowly approaching cold front will bring
chances for tstms Wednesday and Thursday. VFR Friday. Summertime
diurnal tstms possible Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 955 PM Monday...Expect mostly southwest winds 10-15 knot
range through the period. The speeds will peak once again this
evening but generally be a little lighter than Sunday evening. A
weak surface through will follow expected convection early
Tuesday morning but it appears it doesn`t have the push the one
had earlier today to allow a few hours of westerly flow.
Significant seas should stay close to two feet through the
period. Strong storms may approach the near shore waters in the
late evening or just after midnight. The storms will be capable
of pushing wind gusts to 50 KT. Mariners should keep a watch on
radar overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...
Very light SW flow expected Tuesday night as a frontal
boundary stalls along the coastline. This flow regime and minimal
seas will persist into Wednesday and only gradually increase by
about 5 kt heading into later Wednesday and Wednesday night in
response to a piedmont trough developing further inland.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As of 300 PM Monday...A frontal boundary at the start of Thu will
waver east and south of the local waters before dissipating
altogether. High pressure having dropped in from the NW will
temporarily prevail during Thu with offshore winds backing to the SW
by the end of the day. For Fri thru Sat, the high centered well
offshore from the SE U.S. coast will be the primary driver for winds
across the local waters. With the sfc ridge axis extending west and
inland near the GA-FL coasts, wind directions will primarily be from
the SW. The sfc pg does tighten during Fri into the upcoming weekend
and could see SCEC thresholds being met if this trend continues.
Initially, significant seas will be driven by both a weak NE 8+
second period ground swell and locally produced wind waves. But by
the weekend, 3 to 6 second period wind driven waves will dominate
the seas spectrum per latest Wavewatch3 and Swan model data.
Could see 5 footers during the weekend, with SCEC type conditions.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC/JDW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...JDW
MARINE...


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