Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 261530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1130 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Drier air will spread across the region today, as high pressure
builds south and east through early Monday. Rainfall chances will
increase across the area Tuesday through Wednesday, as a cold
front approaches and stalls offshore. Temperatures will remain
seasonable throughout the upcoming week.


As of 1130 AM Sunday...Pleasant conditions on tap this afternoon
with less mugginess in the air. The only place we are carrying
mentionable pop values will be along the SC sea breeze front
in the middle and late afternoon from around Conway SSW to
Andrews. Otherwise partly cloudy skies with patches of afternoon
cumulus and variable strato-cumulus. Minimums 68-73 overnight from
N to S and middle 70s closer to the beaches and ICW.


As of 3 AM Sunday...Longwave Pattern makes some changes this
period. The mid-upper level ridging from the central Gulf Coast
States extending to the Mid-Atlantic States on Monday gives way to
the transition to mid-upper level troffing basically affecting the
U.S east of the Mississippi River Valley to the East Coast, roughly
the eastern 1/3rd to 1/2 of the U.S. The upper trof axis will remain
west of the ILM CWA. This transition means an active pcpn pattern
for the ILM CWA commencing late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night. The
sfc High pumping the ne-e winds across the FA will push offshore and
gradually lose its grip across the FA by Monday Night. Still tough,
Monday still looks like a mostly dry day with possible convection
along the afternoon/evening sea breeze/resultant wind boundary.

For late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night, a sfc cold front displaced
well away from its associated low, will track slowly to the east-
southeast reaching the FA during Tuesday and likely to stall across
the FA as it orients itself parallel to the flow aloft, ie. no
longer a push from aloft. Pcpn ahead of the front will push into the
nw portions of the ILM CWA during the pre-dawn Tuesday hrs. This
pcpn will overspread the FA during daytime Tue and persist thru
Tuesday Night. Sfc forcing from the cold front and mid-level s/w
trofs or vorts will both supply the dynamics for convection to
occur. For now have indicated POPs increasing to Good Chance late
Tue thru Tue Night. As for temps, will basically be about normal for
this time of the year on Monday, and possibly slightly below normal
especially for Max temps on Tuesday due to clouds and pcpn.


As of 3 AM Sunday...Cold front moving into the area at the start of
the period will linger in the region through Thu. Amplification of
shortwave trough over the TN Valley along with westward expansion of
Bermuda High will push the front west and north of the area Fri. The
front will remain stalled just beyond the edges of the forecast area
through the end of the week. Modest amplification of weak 5h trough
west of the area midweek will spread some moisture over the area,
but an abundance of deep moisture is not anticipated. Precipitable
water values will fluctuate between 1.3 and 1.6 inches during the
period which is near to slightly below climatological values. The
lack of any significant surface or mid level features, other than
the aforementioned weakening front, will keep diurnal instability
and convergence along lingering convective boundaries as the main
initiators of convection. Will maintain inherited chance pop
through Sat. Temperatures will be near climo with potential for
highs slightly below climo on any given day in areas with the
heaviest convection.


AS OF 12Z...Mid-level cigs are occurring with isolated light showers
from KFLO to KMYR and offshore. At the surface high pressure is
continuing to pull drier low level air in on N-NE winds. IFR/MVFR
cigs are showing a dissipating trend but will be possible the hour
or so at KCRE/KMYR.

Mid-level cigs will gradually shift S and showers decrease this
morning as a mid-level trough weakens and shifts S. This
afternoon as winds become more onshore, weak convergence at the
surface coupled with some lingering mid-level moisture near
KCRE/KMYR could allow for isolated showers to re-develop despite
increasing subsidence aloft. Do not think coverage will be
sufficient to warrant VCSH. This evening winds will become light
NE as drier air in the mid-levels builds in. Light winds and
clearing skies overnight will allow for potentially dense ground
fog to develop. Best potential for IFR or less will be at inland
terminals, and fog prone KCRE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.


As of 1130 AM Sunday...High pressure ridging from the NE states
will be the primary driver for winds and resultant seas across the
local waters during this period. An initial ne-ene surge this
morning with NE 15 to occasionally 20 kt will diminish to 10-15 kt
this aftn and night. Significant seas will initially run 3 to
around 4 ft for the outer ILM NC and SC Waters ie. Surf City to
Cape Fear and Murrells Inlet to South Santee River. The inside
waters will run 2 to 3 ft with occasional 4 footers noted. The
seas will all subside by a foot by daybreak Monday. Wind driven
waves at 4 to 5 second periods will dominate.

As of 400 AM Sunday...With the sfc high moving off the east coast
Monday. Winds will start off easterly Monday and veer to the se-s
Monday Night, and further veer to the sw for Tuesday thru Tuesday
Night. The sfc pressure pattern associated with the approaching cold
front will produce the SW wind directions. The sfc pg will become
relaxed later Monday thru Tuesday and possible tighten a bit Tue
Night. Overall, wind speeds will run 10 to occasionally 15 kt.
Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft and mainly be dominated by a
small 1 to possibly 2 foot ese ground swell at 9 second periods.

As of 3 AM Sunday...Bermuda High extending over the waters Wed
will be supplanted by weak cold front dropping southeast across
the waters Wed night into Thu. Surface high weakly builds in
behind the front with northeast flow developing Wed night and
lingering into Thu morning. Bermuda High expands back west with
southerly flow developing across the waters during Thu afternoon.
Weak gradient and proximity of waters to the frontal zone will
keep speeds 10 kt or less through the end of the period. Seas will
run 2 ft or less through the period.





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