Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 050746
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
346 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SWING SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING THE RISK FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...MINUS 26 DEG C...WILL WORK INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER LOW...CUT-OFF FROM THE PREVAILING
FLOW...SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING N ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAS ALLOWING MID CLOUDS TO BACK ONTO THE
COAST. AS THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE N...THE CLOUDS
WILL ERODE FROM S TO N.

AS HEATING GETS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING AND COLDER AIR UPSTAIRS MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN. THIS WILL
ALLOW INSTABILITY CLOUDS TO FILL IN. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT THIS
SHOULD NOT PREVENT SHALLOW CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. THERE IS A
RISK FOR SMALL HAIL WITH LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS THROUGH THE
DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED INVERTED-V PROFILE UPTHROUGH5
KFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 18-20 KFT. THIS SIGNALS THE RISK FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY OF THE MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS.
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WIND RISK IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. WILL TREND POPS LOWER FROM S TO N
AFTER DARK...HANGING ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AREA AND GRAND
STRAND WHERE THE DRY AIR LOOKS MOST FORMIDABLE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS...UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOL...UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
ON FRI. ALTHOUGH THE AIR ALOFT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS COLD ON
FRI...AS THE MAIN LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED.
THUS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE WHEN
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST.

THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OFFSHORE DURING SAT AS RIDGING
TO OUR W BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN FEWER CLOUDS. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY
INCREASE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WE COULD SEE A WEAK PERTURBATION IN
NW FLOW KICK OFF A SHOWER. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WILL OPT FOR A
MORE OPTIMISTIC VIEWPOINT...KEEPING SHOWERS OFFSHORE.

TEMPS WILL WARM FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON FRI TO THE MID OR
UPPER 70S BY SAT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FRI NIGHT WILL BE
NEAR 60 SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
WILL PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS BOUNDARY
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE IT STALLS AND DISSIPATES INTO MONDAY.
WHILE COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON SUNDAY AS
ONE OF THE MODELS IS DEPICTING...OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES TO
BUILD AND EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE. RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW RETURNS BY MID-WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL SEE THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTION RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...JUST ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING. VFR EXPECTED WITH VCSH BY
AFTERNOON AS COLD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE IS A RISK FOR ISOLATED SMALL
HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AT
THIS JUNCTURE...BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY INCLUDE TEMPO
THUNDERSTORMS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT
IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WATERS AS COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE W. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MIXING TO THE SEA SURFACE. ALSO...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG OFFSHORE FRONT MOVES TO OUR N THIS MORNING...IT WILL
STRENGTHEN AND THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE W THIS PERIOD...UP TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 5 FT.
ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS...STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
YIELD LOWER SEAS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...W WINDS FRI WILL BRIEFLY VEER TO NW FRI
NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION SAT AND SAT
NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KT MOST OF THE TIME. THE
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD DRIVE SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 3
FT FRI...4 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING TO PREVAIL WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF
THE WATERS. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN WIND
DIRECTION TO WESTERLY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DROPPING TO AOB 10 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...AOB 10 KTS. EXPECT SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON SUNDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL 4 FTERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS. ON
MONDAY...SEAS BECOME STEADY AROUND 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...RJD/DRH



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