Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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681 FXUS62 KILM 151844 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 244 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will migrate well offshore overnight. A strong cold front will cross the coast Monday, accompanied by a few showers. Drier and much cooler air will build into the area behind the front Monday night and Tuesday, as Canadian high pressure drops in. Dry weather and seasonable conditions will prevail through the upcoming week, with a warming trend into next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 244 PM Sunday...High pressure will give way to a fast moving cold front and the 12 utc models are indicating it moving off the coast around 8 PM Monday. In the mean time, winds will remain weak overnight and with the low-level moisture expect to see stratus and fog develop again overnight. The tricky part is how long will it stay around. The models are indicating it will make it to sunrise as the models are slower with the fronts progression. The models are depicting an anafront structure thus will slow the onset of precipiation a few hours than previous forecast. Also, the nam precipiation structure is broken in a south and north coverage to our west, but with the influx of moisture the models increase the rain coverage as it makes it to the coast. Mainly showers expected with an isolated possible in the late afternoon. Lows over night will once again be in the mid 60s temperature overnight with highs on Monday ranging from around 70 in Marlboro County to the upper 70s along the Georgetown coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 244 PM Sunday...Forecast soundings show precipitable water values plummeting to 0.25" Monday night in a strong cold air advection regime following the daytime FROPA. It`ll be a breezy night with lows in the mid to upper 40s and a bit of a wind chill. The wind and cold advection both ease during the day Tuesday and mixing to about 3000ft should allow for highs close to 70. Thermal advection shuts off Wednesday night and there appears to be just enough wind to prevent radiational cooling. This should yield lows very close to those of Monday night...perhaps a few degrees cooler inland where lightest wind expected.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 244 PM Sunday...A broad upper trough of moderate amplitude at the beginning of the forecast period just upstream, will translate eastward through the period. This feature will exit the coast late in the week, while a short-wave upper ridge of high amplitude edges in from the west. This pattern in terms of sensible weather should bring a mainly pleasant Fall-like mid week period, transitioning to a warming trend late week and next weekend. The expansive surface high itself will budge only a bit east into next weekend, and should still have a pronounced foothold on the region. As a result, the radiational cooling potential could still allow seasonable, to slightly above normal minimums into late week. Tropospheric cross-sections through time, show arid air remains in place above 8000 feet, and thus a dry week upcoming. Return flow should re-introduce moisture into the area during next weekend, in the mild/warm sector, as long range models appear to be resolving a cold frontal passage next Monday day 8.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 18Z...Latest GOES-16 0.5 km visible satellite imagery showing the fog has burned off and only scattered decks of MVFR stratus remains at KLBT and KFLO. This stratus will be scattered or few shortly after 18 UTC. So expect VFR condition until midnight where a race will be underway. This race will be for BR/FG and stratus to form again ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The latest models indicated the IFR condition forming generally between 09 and 12 UTC before the flow ahead of the front can sweep out the low clouds and fog. The latest models are trending the precipiation forming a bit later and showers and an isolated thunderstorm is possible mainly after 15 utc with possible MVFR from the ceilings and showers. Extended Outlook...Isolated to scattered MVFR/IFR produced convection is possible on Monday ahead of a strong cold front. MVFR stratus possible near the coast TUE morning in blustery post-frontal NE wind.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 244 PM Sunday...Currently over the waters, light winds at less than 5 to 10 knots are being observed. The winds are expected to shift to the southwest tonight ahead of a cold front. The 12 UTC models are showing the frontal boundaries wind shifting by late afternoon Monday and are expected to increase to 20 to 25 knots late in the day. Significant wave height are 2 to 3 feet with a 9 sec, 2.5 to 3 ft swell from the east south-east this afternoon. Seas will increase in height as wind increase in response the approaching frontal boundary. Seas will increase to 3 to 5 feet by the end of the afternoon. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 244 PM Sunday...Rather unfriendly marine conditions in store for the period. Near term FROPA to be followed by cold surge/tight gradient that will keep wind and seas both solidly in Advisory criteria. Low level jetting present Monday night into early Tuesday at which time a few gale force gusts possible but these winds should taper by midday Tuesday even as the surface winds remain fairly unchanged. Wind and/or seas may start to drop below Advisory thresholds towards the very end of the period. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 244 PM Sunday...This appears to be a period of improvement across all marine locations, as gusty NE winds begin to abate, allowing wave-heights to also drop. This should allow for what could be a `Small Craft Advisory` still effective early on Wednesday, to be dropped as the day progresses. The sea recovery period will be a gradual one, as the high builds very slowly to the SE. Seas of 4-7 feet early Wednesday, will subside to 3-4 feet by early Friday, with a light to moderate NE-E chop in the mix then. The period is dry and no TSTMS are expected at this time over the 0-20 NM waters.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...DL/DRH

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