Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 191103 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 703 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure will continue to extend back westward across the eastern Carolinas from the Atlantic, helping to maintain fair and very warm conditions. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase early next week ahead of a cold front from the west. Next week will become a bit more unsettled as a series of low pressure systems cross the Eastern Seaboard. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Friday...Fairly similar day on Friday as previous couple of days with continued warm southerly return flow around Bermuda high. Should see some patchy fog right around daybreak as winds become near calm. The mid to upper ridge will continue to slip a little farther south and east, but should maintain enough dry air and subsidence to keep showers out of the forecast through Fri. Moisture profiles and sounding data do show a slight increase in moisture between h85 and h70. Therefore may see a bit more of CU to low AC present and will continue to see areas of cirrus streaming over the area in W-SW around upper ridge. Gradient remains fairly slack, but the southerly flow combined with sea breeze development in the afternoon will kick winds up with some gusts up to 15 to 20 mph. Temps will rise to the lower end of 80s closer to the coast and upper 80s to near 90 well inland in the vicinity of the I-95 corridor and west. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Friday...Upper ridging to hold its ground across the SE States Saturday into Sunday. There-after, it breaks down as successive mid-level s/w trofs carve out a rather modest amplitude upper trof across the Central U.S. by Monday. The upper ridge axis by Monday morning will be well offshore from the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast States. Saturday will be the better day of the 2 this weekend for any outside activities with a relatively low chance POPs, mainly along the northern periphery of the ILM CWA which is closest to a stalled frontal boundary oriented west to east just north of the FA. For Sunday, looking at an increasing chance for POPS from west to east during the aftn and night. This a result of a much stronger frontal system pushing east, although it lies well away from it`s parent low, the flow aloft will aid it`s push eastward toward the ILM CWA by late this period. Max temps will in general be higher Sat over Sun due to a higher dose of insolation. The additional clouds Sun, along with POPs, will keep max temps in check. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 PM Thursday...A period of unsettled weather and cooler temperatures develops as broad troughing sets up across the eastern CONUS. This will initially setup behind a cold front which will cross offshore Monday night. Strong warm and moist advection ahead of this feature combined with mid- level PVA and possible weak cyclogenesis suggests shower and tstm chances will be good much of Monday before drying behind the front into Tuesday morning. Temps Mon/Tue will fall back to seasonable norms, but even this will be warmer than what is expected by mid-week. Even cooler temps Wed/Thu are likely as an anomalously deep trough develops across the upper Great Lakes and digs into the Mid-Atlantic. Impulses rotating around this feature will create periods of showers and tstms, best chance on Wednesday, and as 850mb temps drop potentially back into the single digits, temps will likely fall below climo at the end of the long term. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 12Z Friday...VFR condtions expect throughout the 12z Taf Issuance Period. The only exception will be during the pre-dawn Sat hrs when ground fog may become an issue. For now will keep out of the fcst but if models continue trend with diminishing winds, then fog will have to be fcst given enough low level moisture availability. Sfc high centered well offshore from the Carolinas, will ridge back to the west onshore between Cape Fear and Romain respectively. S to SW synoptic winds will prevail at 5 to 10 kt except this aftn thru the evening when the mesoscale sea breeze phenomenon will develop and push inland. This will result in SSE-SSW 10 to 20 kt winds across the coastal terminals. Diurnally driven cu will develop today and mainly stay in the scattered coverage at 2500-4500 ft level. Too much dry air and subsidence aloft will prevent any vertical development to the Cu and thus have kept pcpn out of the fcst. Extended Outlook...Flight categories may lower to IFR or lower during the pre-dawn hours of Sat. Reduced flight categories will be possible in any showers and thunderstorms that develop on Monday into Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Friday...Southerly return flow will continue around Bermuda High reaching up to 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts near shore in afternoon sea breeze. Seas will remain less than 3 ft but will experience some chop in afternoon sea breeze mainly near shore. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Friday...Bermuda high pressure ridging westward and onshore and inland between Cape Fear and Cape Romain thru Sun. Looking at benign winds and sea conditions thru daylight Sun. For Sunday night, the sfc pg will begin to tighten ahead of an approaching cold front. The ridging sfc and aloft affecting the local waters for much of this past work week, will break down per latest models. Look for increasing SE to S winds Sun night ahead of the approaching front. Significant seas will remain docile, in the 1 to 3 foot range thru daylight Sun. Will likely observe a building trend Sun night to atleast 4 ft for the time being due to increasing SE to S winds. Will see convection affecting the local waters, also by the end of the short term period. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 PM Thursday...S to SW winds will increase in speed to 15-20 kts during Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will cross offshore early Tuesday with a wind shift to the NW and a reduction in speed as high pressure builds briefly into the area. A return to S/SW winds will occur late in the period ahead of another cold front. Wave heights will build to 3-4 ft Monday during the period of strongest winds ahead of the cold front. Seas will subside to 1 to 3 ft on Tuesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH

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