Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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382 FXUS62 KILM 080758 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 258 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will bring a dry and seasonable day today. A cold front will move through later on Thursday, ushering in the coldest temperatures of the season for the first part of the weekend. A warming trend will follow Sunday into Monday ahead of the next cold front. Expect seasonable and dry weather Tuesday as high pressure builds in behind front. Another frontal system will affect the area during the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 945 PM Wednesday...A deck of low to mid clouds is moving in from the SW and that will put a damper on the rather steep downward plunge in temperatures that occurred this evening. Other than that see no changes to the forecast for the overnight period. Previous discussion from this afternoon follows: A break-through sparkling afternoon after several days of slate overcast. Plenty clouds lurk W through SW of the forecast area, and this is the direction from which winds in the boundary layer to 850 MB will be trending overnight into early Thursday. Consequently, we expect an intrusion/increase in clouds into NE SC and SE NC tonight. The backing wind regime is being spurred by the approach of a cold front, behind which brings a cold rush of air after the `near term` time period. All factors considered it appears our minimums will dip into the low and middle 40s in the pre-dawn hours, potentially leveling off into daybreak as clouds impact long-wave radiation escape. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Overwhelming headline for the THU/FRI period is `Old Man Winter Dips His Toes into the Carolinas`, as the leading edge of a bubble of Arctic born air infiltrates late on Thursday. Widespread sub-freezing 20s will greet SE NC and NE SC daybreak Saturday as this high settles nearly overhead. Even with cold air advection breezes Thursday night, temps well inland may fall below freezing. A brief deepening of column moisture Thursday into the afternoon could provoke or motivate a few showers to form just ahead or along the cold front late THU with support from low-level convergence and diffluence aloft. Dewpoints and moisture remain limited and no thunder or appreciable rainfall is anticipated. Since the front arrives later in the day, and a downsloping W wind will precede this surface boundary, look for mild temperatures well in the 60s Thursday, before the northern door swings open wide and brings a talked-about chill to the area. Wind chill values will bottom out very early Saturday in the upper teens to lower 20s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 3 AM Thursday...Boundary and surface temperatures progged to recover some 10-12 degrees F on Sunday as the wedge weakens beneath strong low level warm advection. Increased cloud cover resulting from the upglide will temper the warmth slightly but Monday will benefit from a much warmer start and should actually turn out warmer than climatology. Rain chances associated with coastal trough Sunday into Sunday night will continued to be carried but capped low as they are likely a case of over aggressive moistening by guidance, a seemingly common error. Rain chances should max out Monday as a cold front moves through, though the lack of deep layer veering should keep QPF prospects minimized as it prevents the mid levels from moistening. After a dry and fairly seasonable Tuesday we may be looking at another Arctic cold front on Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 06z...A weak frontal wave is approaching from the northwest. Ahead of this system a fairly solid deck of MVFR ceilings have developed. This moisture was very poorly initialized by model guidance, lowering the forecast confidence regarding its tenacity. Normally the best course is to keep lowered conditions as-is until daybreak especially this time of year. There is some wind above the surface layer so any VSBY restrictions likely fairly transient and only MVFR. VFR after sunrise with just a windshift to the NNW spreading south across the terminals this evening as the Arctic front pushes through. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 945 PM Wednesday...Latest obs show seas remain benign in the 2 ft range with very light and variable winds. Forecast remains on track with no changes. Previous discussion from this afternoon follows: A window of manageable marine conditions on tap this evening as weak high pressure settles in, offering N winds 10 KT or less tonight tending to W 5-10 KT early Thursday. Seas of 2-4 feet overnight...highest offshore, will be comprised of S waves 2-3 feet every 7 seconds, and E-SE waves 1-2 feet every 8-10 seconds. No TSTMS or restrictions to VSBY overnight. SHORT TERM /Thursday THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Deteriorating marine conditions the main headline this period as a powerful blast of cold air late on Thursday through Friday brings gusty N winds of 20-25 KT and choppy steep waves. Gusts to 30 KT will be common across the outer and slightly milder offshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed for this Arctic High in wake of a cold frontal passage late in the day Thursday. Offshore navigation is discouraged for small craft Thursday night and Friday, and with the season comes the potential for hypothermia in the event of an overboard situation. The Advisory will be likely be issued overnight, but will allow another model run as to glean more accurate timing of the event. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As OF 3 AM Thursday...Winds initially out of the SE on Sunday with a weak coastal trough in place. Late in the day into Sunday night this feature washes out and a SSW flow gets established and strengthens some. A few 5 ft seas may materialize well away from shore but the coast-parallel fetch may preclude headlines since most of the area sees smaller waves. Monday`s forecast rather uncertain as models are in poor agreement in timing the next front. The slower and slightly favored solutions would allow for a moderately strong prefrontal SW flow that would likely require an advisory.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MBB

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