Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 260709 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SHARP COOLING WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S THIS WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY NEAR FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A WARM FRONT BACKING INLAND FROM THE COAST IS PRODUCING LOW STRATUS CLOUDS NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...WHILE JUST EAST OF THE FRONT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA. INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD BUT NET LINE MOTION SHOULD PICK UP A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION SHORTLY...STEERED BY THE 700-500 MB FLOW WHICH IS STRENGTHENING OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE NSSL WRF SHOW THIS ACTIVITY MERGING INTO A HEFTY LINE AS IT REACHES THE WILMINGTON METRO AREA AFTER DAYBREAK. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IMPRESSIVELY STEEP AND GIVEN THE TRAINING NATURE OF THE STORMS WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ONCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CLEARS THE COAST BY 10 AM OR SO...DOWNWARD MOTION THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND A LULL IN CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IN FACT THERE SHOULD BE SO MUCH SUNSHINE I AM FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ABOVE THE WARMEST MODEL OR MOS I COULD FIND...LOWER 80S INLAND WITH MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. THE BEACHES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH SOUTH WINDS ADVECTING IN CHILLY AIR OFF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY WELL INLAND BUT THIS MIGHT BE OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR ANTICIPATED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT AND ANOTHER SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE GULF...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE IN THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE LOW GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS. MY FORECAST LOWS ARE WELL ABOVE MOS AND CLOSE TO A RAW MODEL BLEND WITH LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHOW UP WEST OF I-95 SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND I PENCILED IN A NARROW ZONE OF COOLER FORECAST LOWS HERE EXPECTING COLD ADVECTION TO DEVELOP.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WARRANT LIKELY POPS TROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WEST TO EAST. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND CERTAINLY ENOUGH DYNAMICS AS THE POWERFUL VORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS WARRANTS HOLDING ON TO POPS AND DRIZZLE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MAINTAINED THE MIX OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SATURDAY BUT ANY APPEARANCE OF FLAKES WILL BE FLEETING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY MORNING LOWS AS MODELS AND GUIDANCE REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MEX NUMBERS ARE ALL BUT UNCHANGED WITH 30 IN WILMINGTON AND 28 IN LBT. THE CONSISTENCY OF THE HIGHS PLACEMENT OVER THE APPALACHIANS GIVES SOME POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REMAINING UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT A DESTRUCTIVE FREEZE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS. A SUBTLE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. THE LATEST GFS HAS THIS OCCURRING MUCH FASTER AND WETTER THAN THE ECMWF BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SLOWER AND DRIER SOLUTION FAVORED BY WPC. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE TO BRIEFLY PUT A HOLD ON THE WARMUP THAT WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS MONDAY MORNING DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE 60S AND 40S. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A NICE WARMUP WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S. NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...ANTICIPATE MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON DUE TO LOW CIGS...RADAR SHOWS EXPANDING SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE AND NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN SC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY SIDESTEP FLO TO THE EAST...AFFECTING MYR/CRE AND LBT THROUGH 10Z. AFTER 10Z IT WILL SHIFT TOWARD ILM WITH CONTINUED UPSCALE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. LOW STRATUS WEST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS FLO AND LBT BETWEEN 07-08Z...WITH LOWER CHANCES OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT MYR/CRE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. AFTER DAYBREAK...LOW CLOUDS MAINLY INLAND WILL LIFT IN THE 13-15Z TIMEFRAME. CONVECTION NEAR ILM SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY 15Z. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD PRODUCE A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12G20KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SHRA...BECOMING VFR LATER SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT REACH THE WATER UNTIL SEVERAL HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS MEANS SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE ARE TWO PERIODS OF PARTICULARLY STRONG WINDS TO DEAL WITH. THE FIRST IS ONGOING NOW AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS LOW IS HELPING CREATE A LINE OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT COULD ALLOW THESE SHOWERS TO STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST. ALTHOUGH WINDS AWAY FROM SHORE WILL GO INTO A LULL THIS AFTERNOON...A SEABREEZE NEARSHORE SHOULD HOLD WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS. TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. WITH ONSHORE WIND DIRECTIONS...LARGE SEAS ARE BEING DIRECTED FROM WELL OFFSHORE INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. RECENT REPORTS INCLUDE 5 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY...AND 4 FEET AT THE "HARBOR" BUOY SOUTH OF SOUTHPORT. THESE SEAS COULD BUILD ANOTHER FOOT THIS MORNING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON LULL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NC WATERS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 6 FOOT SEAS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORINNG SHIFTING THE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS DUE TO RESIDUAL HIGHER SEAS FROM THE PREFRONTAL FLOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS. THIS WILL PERSIST FOR SOME TIME AND ONLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER SEAS...3-5 FEET WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE OUTERMOST WATERS DURING THIS TIME. SEAS DROP TO 2-3 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE EVER WEAKENING WINDS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING OVERHEAD SUNDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS FIELDS ACROSS THE WATERS.EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS INITIALLY BACKING OFF TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS BY SUNSET. A RETURN FLOW OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 15- 20 KNOTS DEVELOPS MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...TRA/SGL

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