Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251759 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 159 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS WERE SHOWING A SMALL BIT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE 06 UTC RUN BUT THIS HAS BEEN DIMINISHED IN THE 12 UTC NAM AND GFS RUNS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WITH WINDS INCREASING ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH THE SPEED MAX BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOWER DEW-POINTS FOG IS NOT AN ISSUE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD. MID- LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING SUNDAY...THEN EVOLVE TO A LONG-WAVE RIDGE MONDAY WITH THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER MOVING TO JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY DRYING...AND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD TO CREATE DRY AND PRETTY MUCH CLOUDLESS CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...AS THICKNESSES RISE AND HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OFFSHORE...HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS 80 BOTH DAYS...WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY COLUMN AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT HOWEVER...SO LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AROUND 50...WITH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THANKS TO DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND SUNNY THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED...BUT A BIG AIR MASS CHANGE WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN. 500MB RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC FLORIDA COAST WILL EXTEND NORTH THROUGH THE FULL LATITUDE OF THE CONUS...PRODUCING SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DRIVING HIGH THICKNESSES INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WELL...AS A COLD FRONT DISPLACES IT FROM THE WEST. TUE/WED WILL BOTH BE QUITE WARM...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE LOW 80S BOTH AFTNS...AND LOWS FALLING ONLY TO THE MID 50S/NEAR 60. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE/WED...MID-LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP. STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY...AND MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY THANKS TO AN AMPLIFYING LONG-WAVE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE MS VLY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS ITS INTENSITY...BUT LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY DOES APPEAR TO SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND WILL RAISE POP TO LOW-CHC AS FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE SATURATED...MATCHING THE EXTENDED MOS P-NUMBERS. AS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...IT WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO STALL...OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY...SUCH THAT IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE IF THE DRY AIR CAN WORK BACK IN BEFORE HALLOWEEN EVENING FESTIVITIES. ATTM IT LOOKS GOOD FOR HALLOWEEN...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED SINCE THE TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK TO THE WEST COULD KEEP THE FRONT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE FRONT IS ON FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER...LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED FOR THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS...SW-NW AT TIMES...EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE S-SW WINDS DUE TO A WEAK SEA BREEZE AT KCRE/KMYR. SCT CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THIS EVENING SOME SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED AND A WIND-SHIFT TO THE W-NW. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT 14-15Z WITH CLEAR SKIES. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...THE VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WEST AFTER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE ABATES AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SEAS OF 1 FOOT WILL INCREASE TO 2 FEET JUST OFFSHORE WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS EARLY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE PRIMARILY LIGHT SPEEDS WITH DIRECTIONS VARYING THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS. W/NW WINDS THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY WILL REACH 15 KTS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT MOVING AWAY FROM THE WATERS...BUT THEREAFTER THE GRADIENT WILL EASE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS SPEEDS DROP TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...AND THE DIRECTION WILL VEER FROM NW SUNDAY AFTN...TO NE BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN FINALLY SW BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST WAVE AMPLITUDES OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...BUT WILL STILL BE ONLY 2-3 FT THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND. SUNDAY EVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT 1-2 FT SEAS...WITH SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH KEEPS WINDS FROM THE SW TUE AND WED...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT DRIVING WINDS ONLY TO AROUND 10 KTS. VERY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE MAY OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT FROM THE SW...THE LIGHT SPEEDS WILL KEEP SEAS AT 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS EVEN AS A SE GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR

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