Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271457 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1055 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A progressive weather pattern will bring a few opportunities for rainfall in the form of showers and thunderstorms through next Monday. The potential for more substantial and widespread rainfall appears to bookend the weekend at this point, Friday and again next Monday. Otherwise, temperatures will be near or above normal with many places reaching into the 80s the first half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1055 AM Monday...Although our temperature curve is a little behind (warming up faster than fcst) the forecast itself looks good. No changes are anticipated at this time. As of 600 AM Monday...A warm and moist southerly return flow will continue around high pressure off shore. Some mid cloud will move across the area this morning, as morning showers pass by mainly to our N. Cumulus will develop with the heating of the day. The high will orient itself more SW to NE off the southeast coast allowing for winds to veer from SE to S-SW on Mon. The column will moisten up as the ridge up the southeast coast shifts off shore on Mon as a shortwave moves eastward reaching the Ohio Valley by Mon night. Therefore the potential for showers and possibly thunderstorms will increase through late day and into tonight with mainly elevated instability as we lose our heating. Therefore, have included slight chc of shwrs associated with convergence along sea breeze as it pushes inland but there will be a better chc of shwrs/iso tstms tonight as a shortwave rides by. Lows will be in the mid 50s for most locations. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs well into the 70s to around 80 inland. Temps tonight will be in the mid 50s most places again.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...Weak low pressure across the Ohio Valley will move quickly offshore of the Mid-Atlantic states Tue night, dragging a cold front across the area and offshore Wed morning. A strong area of high pressure will begin to build across the area from the N Wed afternoon and night. Moisture return ahead of mid-week system looks rather feeble given high pressure will be situated across the Gulf of Mexico and across the Atlantic, to our S. The column does briefly moisten sufficiently to warrant isolated to scattered showers and perhaps thunderstorms Tue with the activity ending Tue night. High pressure and dry weather will then gradually build in from the N later Wed and Wed night. Temps will be well above normal this period, lower 80s inland and lower to mid 70s at the coast due to marine influences. Tue should be the warmer of the two days. Lows will be in the upper 50s to around 60 Tue night, dropping to the lower to mid 50s Wed night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...Strong high pressure centered across Quebec Province Thu morning will ridge south across the eastern Carolinas. The ridge will drift offshore during the day Thu and Thu night. Strong low pressure across the Midwest Thu night will move to the northeast and gradually weaken. Its attendant cold front will move across the area Fri night. Deep moisture will be tapped ahead of this system, but the best upper level support will pass by to our N. Still expect a likelihood of showers and thunderstorms Fri and Fri night. Drier air will gradually build into the area on Sat as high pressure slowly builds from the NW, but with cool air aloft, can not rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Upper ridge late in weekend will move offshore during Mon and this will allow a very potent southern stream system to bring a heightened risk of showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Carolinas as it lifts NE from the Gulf Coast states into the southern Great Lakes region and brings a surge of deep Gulf of Mexico moisture northward. High temps will be above normal through the period, lower to mid 70s. Lows will be mainly in the 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 12Z...VFR conditions will dominate this period, with perhaps a brief period of MVFR in BR at KCRE 12-13z and the potential for MVFR BR late tonight throughout. Convection through the valid TAF period will be isolated and mainly inland. At this time, did not include a shower or thunderstorm and resulting visibility restrictions in the TAF. However, later forecasts may opt to include mention if timing resolution improves. Did initialize with VCSH at KLBT as showers are passing mainly to the N of the terminal this morning. Did also include VCSH at KFLO from 18-00z as this terminal has the highest risk for a shower or thunderstorm, but still the coverage will be isolated. Extended outlook...Restrictions to ceiling and visibility possible in scattered afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms Tue. Numerous showers and thunderstorms Fri/Fri night will increase the risk for reduced ceilings and visibility. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1055 AM Monday...The ongoing forecast is in good shape. No changes are planned at this time. As of 300 AM Monday...A southerly return flow will continue around Atlantic high pressure through tonight. The high will orient itself more SW to NE off the southeast coast allowing for winds to veer from SE to S-SW on Mon. The gradient will tighten slightly as low pressure moves from the central Mississippi Valley farther east to the Ohio Valley, but overall expect winds around 10 kts through most of the period. Could see up to 15 kt near shore in aftn sea breeze on Mon. Seas will basically remain 2 to 4 ft thru Mon with a slight rise through Mon night but the greater SW off shore component will leave the slightly higher seas off the coast. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...Weak low pressure across the Ohio Valley will move quickly offshore of the Mid-Atlantic states Tue night, dragging a cold front across the waters and offshore Wed morning. A strong area of high pressure will begin to build across the waters from the N Wed afternoon and night. The wind direction will be SW tue and Tue night, shifting to the NW and N Wed morning and then veering around to the NE later Wed and Wed night. Wind speeds will be 10 to 15 kt Tue and Tue night. A developing NE surge Wed night will bring wind speeds up to 15 to 20 kt. Seas will be 3 to 5 ft through much of the period. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...A Small Craft Advisory may be required for all waters Fri and Fri night. Strong high pressure centered across Quebec Province Thu morning will ridge south across the waters. The ridge will drift offshore during the day Thu and Thu night. Strong low pressure across the Midwest Thu night will move to the northeast and gradually weaken. Its attendant cold front will move across the waters Fri night. High pressure will gradually build across the waters from the NW during Sat. The wind direction will be from the NE Thu morning, veering to the E Thu afternoon and SE Thu night. S winds Fri will veer to SW Fri night and then shift to W toward Sat morning. Wind speeds will be 15 to 20 kt Thu and Thu night and may increase to 20 to 25 kt Fri/Fri night. Wind speeds on Sat will be 10 to 15 kt. Seas will be 3 to 5 ft Thu and Thu night, building to 4 to 7 ft Fri/Fri night before subsiding to 3 to 4 ft Sat afternoon.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...MBB/RJD LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...RJD

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