Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 051424 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1024 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COLD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SWING SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING THE RISK FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE TIP OF CAPE FEAR THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT A SECONDARY WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FARTHER INLAND. THE PRIMARY SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS N OF THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRIER LOWER DEWPOINT AIR INLAND AND TO THE SW TO WORK ITS WAY TO THE NC COAST. DEWPOINT TEMPS OVER NORTHEAST SC WERE IN THE 40S MOST PLACES ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE RICHER DEWPOINT AIR WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST THROUGH TODAY...THE POTENT MID TO UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH. THIS EXTREME COLD POOL ALOFT...DROPPING TO -25 C...WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY AS HEATING OCCURS AT THE SFC...ALLOWING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH SUCH COOL AIR ALOFT AND WBZ HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 6500 FT...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL. ALSO THE INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...ABOVE 7K FT...WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. OVERALL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. THIS SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE CRITERIA. MAINTAINED POPS AS IS FOR NOW WITH A LOWERING TREND FROM S TO N AFTER DARK. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS CAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. 850 TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING DOWN AROUND 4C. THE LOWER DEWPOINT AIR WILL ALLOW ALREADY COOL TEMPS TO DROP OFF TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL NOT DROP OFF COMPLETELY AND THEREFORE EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. MOST PLACES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON FRI. ALTHOUGH THE AIR ALOFT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS COLD ON FRI...AS THE MAIN LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. THUS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST. THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OFFSHORE DURING SAT AS RIDGING TO OUR W BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FEWER CLOUDS. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WE COULD SEE A WEAK PERTURBATION IN NW FLOW KICK OFF A SHOWER. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WILL OPT FOR A MORE OPTIMISTIC VIEWPOINT...KEEPING SHOWERS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL WARM FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON FRI TO THE MID OR UPPER 70S BY SAT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FRI NIGHT WILL BE NEAR 60 SAT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE IT STALLS AND DISSIPATES INTO MONDAY. WHILE COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON SUNDAY AS ONE OF THE MODELS IS DEPICTING...OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD AND EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE. RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS BY MID-WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL SEE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 12Z...THE FOG/STRATUS AND NORTHERLY FLOW AT ILM WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY 13Z. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RESIDING OVER SOUTH CAROLINA BY THIS EVENING. THE UNUSUALLY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KICK OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MORE PREVALENT OVER NORTH CAROLINA AT FIRST. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS. TONIGHT...EXPECT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH INTERMITTENT LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY IN THE CONVECTION. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS AND SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WATERS AS POTENT UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH AND DEPOSITS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING TO THE SEA SURFACE. ALSO...LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CAPE FEAR COAST WILL LIFT N INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BE MORE WESTERLY IN THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR AND WILL VEER AROUND FORM THE N-NE TO THE NW TO W NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. STRONGER OFF SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSE TO THE COAST LOWER AND HIGHEST SEAS WELL OFF SHORE. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...W WINDS FRI WILL BRIEFLY VEER TO NW FRI NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KT MOST OF THE TIME. THE PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD DRIVE SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT FRI...4 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING TO PREVAIL WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TO WESTERLY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DROPPING TO AOB 10 KT. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...AOB 10 KT. EXPECT SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4 FTERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS. ON MONDAY...SEAS BECOME STEADY AROUND 3 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...RGZ/DRH SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SGL AVIATION...DL MARINE...

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