Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 210822 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 317 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST TODAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE COAST BUT STAYS WELL OFFSHORE. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED TUESDAY BUT GROW A BIT MORE SEASONABLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUNSHINE FINALLY RETURNS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WHILE IT TURNS COOLER. DRY AND FAIRLY SUNNY WEATHER SHOULD LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3:30 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...INCREASING FROM PRESENT 10 TO 15 KT RANGE TO 15 TO 20 KTS LATER THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAVERS BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE...WHICH HAS PROMPTED THE POSTING OF EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...CLOUDS HANG TOUGH MONDAY TO KEEP TEMPS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY ONCE AGAIN AS SURFACE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM POINTS NORTH. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND IT WILL HAVE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDGE UP ALONG OUR LATITUDE LATE IN THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT LEADS TO SOME LIGHT RAIN. WITH THIS FORCING VERY WEAK AND MOISTURE CONFINED TO RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS NON-MEASURABLE SPRINKLES SEEM JUST AS LIKELY AS MEASURABLE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY INLAND. THE WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY AND THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REALLY BE AMPLIFYING. THIS WILL CERTAINLY LEAD TO A MILDER AFTERNOON BUT THE INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE SKY CLOUDY. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY...MORESO FROM MOISTURE ADVECTION RATHER THAN FORCING LEADING TO ASCENT. IN FACT IN SUCH A SITUATION MODELS ARE OFTEN A BIT FAST ON ADVECTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND SO THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN-FREE HOURS EARLY TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY PROBABLY REPRESENTS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN AND POSSIBLY WILL SEE FOR QUITE SOME TIME. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE SUCH THAT IT WILL SCOOP UP PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM CHRISTMAS IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER BRISK AND COOLER BUT WILL AT LEAST FEATURE A RETURN OF SUNSHINE WHICH BY THEN WILL HAVE BEEN ABSENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS COOL HIGH THEN WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF THE COOL ADVECTION. SATURDAY MAY BE EITHER SEASONABLE OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT CIGS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR OVERNIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE 3-6KFT LAYER REMAINS SATURATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW PATCHES OF 800-1000 FT STRATUS OUT THERE TONIGHT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE PERSISTENT CIGS AT THESE LEVELS BASED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGS MORE -RA AND LOWERS THEM BACK DOWN TO MVFR AGAIN. PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 15Z AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND AFTER 18Z AT KILM/KLBT. NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER 00Z MON...CIGS WILL DROP FURTHER AS RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IFR CIGS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL SITES MVFR. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY MON WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS WED/THU BEFORE AND AFTER FROPA. THU WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3:30 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...INCREASING FROM PRESENT 10 TO 15 KT RANGE TO 15 TO 20 KTS LATER THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAVERS BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE...WHICH HAS PROMPTED THE POSTING OF EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NE WINDS ON MONDAY WILL VEER SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAND WEAKENS. MONDAY WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT 5KT OF HIGHER WIND SPEED AT TIMES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. TUESDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL VEER AGAIN MORE DECIDEDLY AS THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND DYNAMIC UPPER SYSTEM APPROACH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THOUGH COOL SSTS MAY TEMPER THE INCREASE IN WINDS SOMEWHAT AT THE SURFACE EARLY IN THE NIGHT. THIS EFFECT HOWEVER WILL BE OVERWHELMED TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD BY THE OVERALL INCREASE IN MOMENTUM OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONGLY FORCED COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY AND SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCED WINDS WILL BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE AND AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO HOW DEEP MOMENTUM TRANSFER OVER THE COOL SSTS WILL BE. SHOULD MIXING OVERWHELM THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF THE COOL WATERS THEN WINDS MAY BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, ALTHOUGH SURFACE GALES STILL SEEM RATHER UNLIKELY. SHARP VEER WED NIGHT WITH FROPA AND BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...BJR

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