Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 221029 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 633 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure and an associated cold front will move offshore this morning. An area of low pressure aloft will bring a slight chance of showers this afternoon and again on Monday. Typical Summertime temperatures and mainly dry weather will develop by the middle of the week with above normal temperatures into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Sunday...The last of the thunderstorms are moving off the Pender County coast now. The surface cold front is lagging the storms by a few hours due to a weak wave of low pressure that has developed in the Wilmington area. This front should still be off the coast before daybreak. Northerly winds will develop today with cooler and slightly drier air building in. Typically behind a cold front we don`t expect significant precipitation chances outside of a cool-season overrunning situation. However an upper level low centered over western New York state will be forced southward later today and will actually end up in northeastern North Carolina late tonight. 500 mb temperatures currently around -12C will fall to near -16C this afternoon, then to -20C tonight. When coupled with strong May sunshine and residual low- level moisture we anticipate convective instability of 500-1000 J/kg to develop with no capping. (Contingent of course on highs reaching the mid to upper 70s) Showers and a few thunderstorms should be the result with the highest coverage following the coldest mid-level temperatures across North Carolina. Forecast PoPs range from 20 percent from Florence to Georgetown...up to 50 percent in the Burgaw/Topsail Island vicinity. Freezing levels should fall to around 9000 feet by late afternoon. While this may increase the potential for small hail slightly, this is not expected to be a repeat of the May 5th event that produced widespread small hail across the Carolinas. With the loss of heating showers should dissipate this evening with only scattered clouds remaining overnight. Lows in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Sunday...Cold mid-level temperatures associated with upper level low pressure near Virginia Beach Monday should spark more scattered showers Monday afternoon. Coverage should be a bit less than on Sunday due to drier low-level conditions yielding less instability. Temperatures should remain well below normal with highs only reaching the lower 70s for coastal SE North Carolina, mid 70s from Lumberton to Myrtle Beach, and maybe some upper 70s from Darlington to Florence. (Normal highs are in the lower to middle 80s this time of year!) Surface high pressure building eastward from the Plains states will reach the Carolinas Monday night providing light winds and mainly clear skies. Radiational cooling should drop lows into the mid 50s for most locations away from the beaches. On Tuesday light winds and plenty of sunshine coupled with warm advection as the upper low and surface high both move offshore should allow temperatures to soar into the 80s away from the beaches. Mainly clear skies will continue Tuesday night with lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 AM Sunday...Middle to later half of the week will be marked by surface high moving off the coast and weak ridging aloft. Surface high just off the coast Wed migrates to the a more typical Bermuda High location Thu through Sat. As the high offshore drifts east a 5h ridge will build over region, leading to warming and drying conditions during the period. Latest GFS and ECMWF depicting a much stronger 5h ridge than just 24 hours ago. The mid level ridge remains a "dirty ridge" with moisture aloft emerging from the southwest and topping the ridge. While chances will be very low this will at least mean isolated afternoon convection will be possible late in the week. Will carry silent afternoon/evening pop Thu through Sat but confidence is low. temperatures will run above climo through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 12Z...3.9 satellite shows stratus pressing southward along with a cold front. IFR conditions will be intermittent at FLO, while predominate at the other terminals for the first two to three hours of taf time. The cold front will continue to drift southward, with a cold pool aloft moving southward as well. This cold pool may kick off some convection this afternoon, particularly if we get some sun. Light winds tonight with mainly scattered skies. Extended Outlook...Possible MVFR conditions on Monday, otherwise VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Sunday...A cold front is in the process of moving off the Carolina coastline in the next couple of hours. Northerly winds 10-15 kt will develop behind the front due to low pressure off the East Coast and high pressure over the Plains states. Typically behind a cold front we see precipitation chances diminish sharply, however in this case unstable air aloft associated with an upper level low pressure should help develop scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. These should be most numerous north of Cape Fear, however there is a slight chance even the Grand Strand waters could see a shower or storm later today. Northerly winds will continue through tonight, with shower chances ending during the evening. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Sunday...Low pressure will develop Monday morning along this morning`s cold front which should be located a couple hundred miles offshore. The low will move northward and away from the area, but will help to keep northerly winds blowing around 10 knots with some 15 kt winds possible Monday morning north of Cape Fear. Scattered afternoon showers may again develop Monday due to the cold and unstable conditions aloft. For Monday night through Tuesday night the focus will shift to high pressure building in from the west. This high should bring delightful weather with light winds and no appreciable rain chances. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 AM Sunday...Surface high centered just east of the waters Wed morning will drift farther east Wed night, setting up in the typical Bermuda High location Thu. Southwest flow is expected across the waters through Thu night with speeds on the low end of the 10 to 15 kt range. Sea breeze is likely to develop each afternoon, resulting in onshore flow close to 15 kt near the coast. Seas 2 ft or less Wed and Thu. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...III AVIATION...43

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