Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 080558 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1258 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold and wet pattern will prevail across the forecast area tonight thru Friday and likely for most of Saturday. Skies will finally clear out but remain on the cold side Sunday through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 845 PM Thursday...Not much editing needed for tonight into Friday`s forecast. The 3 words to describe tonight`s forecast are cold, dank and dismal. Very little tweaking needed to this forecast other than some adjustments upwards to the QPF for tonight thru Friday. Which follows closely to the latest WPC Guidance. Previous.................................................... As of 300 PM Thursday...Cold and wet conditions will prevail through the Near Term. A cold front will remain stalled offshore as an over- running pattern combines with a deeply moist column to produce periods of stratiform rain tonight and Friday. A series of upper disturbances moving along the leading edge of the H/5 L/W trough will enhance precip at times, with the next substantial bout of rain moving in from the SW this evening. The remainder of this afternoon will see a lull of sorts, with just some patchy light rain or drizzle. Still do not see flooding as a problem as due to dry antecedent soil conditions and event total QPFs of only around 1.5 inches spread out over the next 24 hours. Temperatures will remain on the cold side, with lows in the upper 30s tonight and highs in the mid 40s on Friday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Two strong disturbances aloft approaching the area Friday night. The southern feature will be leading to flat cyclogenesis along the offshore frontal boundary and spreading rain across the area. The heaviest amounts will be near the coast, areas more proximal to the boundary. The northern feature will be driving a moisture-challenged cold front towards the region from the northwest. With regard to the rain event models continue to trend warmer with low level thermal profiles and p-type issues continue to seem very unlikely. Deep layer dry air will be offshore by midday Saturday and measurable rainfall likely shuts off. Saturday night the two systems aloft phase and surface low strengthens off New England coast, bolstering cold air advection locally. What remains questionable then is whether or not the upper system has any moisture left to wring out of the atmosphere Saturday night as it would take the form of (non-accumulating) snow showers. The GFS is the only operational model suggesting the possibility. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Extended forecast offers few changes this afternoon. A deep mid level trough will be in place across the eastern U.S. for the foreseeable future. This leads to a mostly dry and cold forecast. The only pops in the forecast have been with a potent shortwave diving down in the mid level flow late Tuesday into Wednesday. Guidance has backed off light dynamically induced precipitation which was a stretch to begin with as has the official forecast. As for temperatures, not a whole lot of change here either. Temperatures will be well below normal throughout, with the coldest mornings (widespread mid 20s) both on Monday and Thursday mornings. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 06Z...VFR the rule early this morning at all terminals despite periods of rain and widespread cloudiness. A cold front stalled west of the terminals will dissipate today as a bubble of high pressure expands locally. This will cause a lowering inversion, and with moisture streaming overhead and increasing near the surface, rainfall will become more widespread and cigs will begin to lower. Expect periods of MVFR vsbys tonight, with MVFR cigs developing early after sunrise. IFR is also likely during Friday, although timing is still uncertain. Once cigs lower to IFR, they are likely to remain there through the end of the valid period. A wave of low pressure developing along a stalled boundary offshore will cause increasing northerly winds reaching 10-15 kts this aftn and tonight. This cool wind will lower the inversion even further, and with rainfall becoming more widespread and heavy at times tonight, LIFR is possible as well. Extended Outlook...MVFR Sat/showers ending. VFR Sun through Tue.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 845 PM Thursday...SCA Has been raised for the area waters with a 6 hour lapse time between the ILM-SC Waters and the ILM NC Waters. Meaning it starts earlier across the SC waters ie. Midnight tonight, with NC waters starting at 6am Friday. and the same is true with the ending of the SCA during Sunday. Windspeeds will be at their lowest during this evening. The stalled front well offshore from the Carolinas will begin to back towards the Carolina Coasts tonight and Friday but continuing to remain offshore. Thus, overall wind directions thru Friday will run NNW thru NNE. The NNW will especially occur after the passage of these weak sfc lows that develop and move northeast along the semi-stalled offshore frontal boundary. The sfc pg will tighten as the stalled frontal boundary offshore retrogresses towards the Carolina Coasts, but still remaining offshore. The strength of these waves of low pressure will also promote hier windspeeds. Due to a lower fetch for significant seas to build upon from a mainly northern trajectory in the wind fields, significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft tonight. As wind speeds increase later tonight thru Friday, seas will respond and increase but not by much given the small fetch. The 10+ second period easterly ground swell has finally faded away leaving a 7 to 8 second period pseudo-ground swell in it`s place. Wind driven waves at 3 to 6 second periods, will become more dominate in the seas spectrum with time. Previous..................................................... As of 300 PM Thursday...Expect north winds through the period as a stalled cold front east of the waters brings periods of cold rain. WInds will generally range around 15 kts but can go higher at times as a series of disturbances move NE along the stalled front. Seas will range 3 to 5 ft well offshore, with 2 ft closer to shore. Have added Exercise Caution headlines for AMZ250 and AMZ256 starting at midnight for enhanced winds and seas. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Gradient pinched between strong high pressure and offshore frontal boundary through the period keeping conditions unsettled. The gradient and resulting winds appear to get increased just enough for marginal SCA Friday night as flat wave of low pressure ridges NE along the boundary. Behind this wave will be a shift from N or NE flow to NW flow that will remain for the duration whilst winds and seas remain near or just shy of SCEC criteria. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Sunday will see northwest winds of 15-20 knots. The cold air advection will ease late Sunday into early Tuesday with westerly winds of 10-15 knots. Another surge of cold air arrives later Tuesday with winds increasing once again to 15-20 knots. Seas should stay below flag criteria with the possible exception of late Tuesday when some six footers may develop across the outer waters.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Sunday for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...JDW MARINE...

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