Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 240248 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1048 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND IT TO WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPCORN TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE ILM CWA. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT KEPT CONVECTION GOING SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET ARE NO LONGER AVBL TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE DROPPED ALL POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH THINNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVERNITE. WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. PROGGED LOW LEVEL SSW-SW JET OVERNIGHT MAY KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST. CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST OF GENERALLY MID 70S REMAINS AOK...WITH ISOLATED LOWER 70S WELL INLAND...AND POSSIBLY UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY IS SETTING UP TO BE A HOT AND STORMY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MID 90S ESPECIALLY IN INLAND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE DEW POINT IN THE LOWER 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES VALUES IN THE 100 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE ESPECIALLY INLAND AREAS. FOR STORMS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING ACROSS A A WEAK MID LEVEL JET CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG WINDS WITH THE STORMS BUT THE HIGH PRECIPTABLE WATERS OF OVER 2 INCHES WILL ME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE FRONT IN THE REGION AND CLOUD COVER EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE CROSSES THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE PIEDMONT TROUGH/FRONTAL REMAINS SIT TO OUR WEST. TOUGH TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISO CONVECTION IN SUCH A SETUP BUT MID LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY MORE COVERAGE THAN THAT. MUCH THE SAME WILL APPLY ON SUNDAY...AND BOTH DAYS WILL LIKELY OFFER UP FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY START GETTING ACTIVE AS MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW...BOTH IN RESPONSE TO UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN BEHIND IT FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY LINGER FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 00Z...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE LARGELY BETWEEN THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING. VCTS COULD OCCUR AT KFLO/KLBT UNTIL CONVECTION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT AT KFLO/KLBT AND THE COASTAL TERMINALS UNTIL SUNRISE TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LACK OF LIFT AND INCREASED DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT FROM THE SW. THIS SHOULD WORK AGAINST ANY FOG FORMATION...BUT COULD STILL SEE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS/SCT STRATUS AT KFLO/KLBT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BY MID MORNING TO 10-20KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND AROUND 10KT AT KFLO/KLBT. EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE OF TEMPO TSRA/MVFR BY 18Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS WELL AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1045 PM WEDNESDAY...PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL YIELD SW WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT...OR POSSIBLY A SOLID 15 KT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC PG TIGHTENING-SOME BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY GET CONSUMED BY THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW DURING THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE THE COMBINATION OF 2 ENTITIES. 1. AN ESE TO SE 1-3 FOOT GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 7 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS. 2. LOCALLY PRODUCED 1-3 FOOT SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 3 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS. EITHER 1 OF THESE ENTITIES COULD DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT ANY 1 TIME. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS BUT STALLS JUST ON SHORE. WHEN THE FRONT STALL THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN JUST A BIT. A SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON THURSDAY AND THEN SETTLE BACK TO 2 TO 3 FEET RANGE ON FRIDAY. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BRING FAIRLY TYPICAL CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESULTING FROM WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND. A SHARPENING OF THE LATTER ON SUNDAY WILL TIGHTEN THE FLOW AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO ADVISORY LEVELS. THE APPROACH OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND AN ADVISORY APPEARS EVEN MORE LIKELY. BOTH DAYS ARE A TOUGHER CALL OVER SRN ZONES WHERE 6 FT SEAS MAY HAVE A HARDER TIME GETTING CLOSE ENOUGH TO SHORE TO BE IN THE 20NM FORECAST ZONES.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRH NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR

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