Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 252338 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 638 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Near record high temperatures today will fall abruptly behind a cold front this evening. Much cooler temperatures expected Sunday as high pressure builds into the Carolinas. These cool temperatures will be short lived as a warm front lifts north early Tuesday. Near record high temperatures expected again by the middle of next week before a cold front crosses the area on Thursday. A return to winter like temperatures is possible by next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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As of 600 PM Saturday...A strong cold front was moving across the Forecast Area. On the much drier side of the front, dewpoints have fallen into the 30s across portions of the area. Dramatically lower dewpoints across the Pee Dee will move across the remainder of the I-95 corridor and across the coast through 8-9 pm. Deep westerly flow has precluded any convection this far south. Where better dynamics were positioned, there were some showers and storms across VA and NE North Carolina this eve. These storms will continue to move away from the area. Breezy SW winds will shift to W and NW with the passage of the front and then to N overnight with the reinforcing push of colder and drier air. Sustained wind speeds will be as high as 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts. Wind speeds will decrease overnight. Dewpoints across the upstate of South Carolina and western North Carolina were in the teens and 20s and these dewpoints will make a run for the area. Temperatures upstream were in the 30s and 40s. Overnight, lows across the eastern Carolinas will finally resemble more normal levels, upper 30s to lower 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...The flow aloft will de-amplify this period with nearly zonal flow aloft. At the sfc, Sunday will see the effects from Cool Canadian high pressure affecting the area with temps basically at or slightly below the norm thru Sun night. With fast flow aloft, the center of this sfc high is progged to push across the coastal areas Sunday night and to well offshore and east of NC during Monday. Return flow around the departing high will result in WAA under SE to S flow during Monday with max temps rebounding back to around 70 away from the immediate coast. There is a weak mid-level s/w trof that passes just north of the FA during Mon night. Enough moisture accompany`s this s/w as well a SE influx of limited moisture at the low levels off the Atlantic. Have indicated POPs increasing to low chance Mon evening and modest chance later Mon night. QPF will be on the light side, under one quarter of an inch. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...A warm front will be lifting north of the area Tuesday morning, with very warm conditions expected through mid- week. Temperatures Tuesday will be well into the 70s, and by Wednesday with strong WAA and better coverage of sunshine, record highs may be approached (low 80s for March 1st). While it will likely be very warm both Tue/Wed, an early-spring unstable environment will likely permit aftn showers and isolated tstms across the area, more widespread on Tuesday than Wednesday. A strong cold front will then cross the Carolinas Thursday with a good chance for showers and tstms during the morning into the early aftn, before much cooler and drier weather advects into the region. Thursday will likely again be warm, with potentially an atypical diurnal curve through the aftn behind the FROPA, before a trough digs down the eastern seaboard behind the front. After several days well above normal, it appears winter will make a return for the first wknd in March with highs and lows below climo Fri and Sat. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 00Z...VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. W to SW winds of 10 to 15 KT with gusts over 20 KT attm will become W at all terminals by 03Z and NW at all terminals by 06Z and gusty character will diminish overnight. N winds invof 10 KT are expected after sunrise. Extended Outlook...VFR. VSBY and ceilings lowered to MVFR/IFR with pcp Mon night into Tues and again with SHWRs on Wed.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 600 PM Saturday...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters through 6 am Sunday. A strong cold front will sweep across the waters this eve, bringing colder and dramatically drier air across the waters on a developing northerly surge. SW winds early will shift to W and NW with the passage of the front 8-9 pm and then to N late eve and overnight. Wind speeds will be on the order of 20 to 25 kt. Seas will be 4 to 7 ft. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Saturday...Sfc high pressure centered just west of the spine of the Appalachians at Sunday Daybreak. A tightened sfc pg and diminishing CAA will keep winds frisky for the 1st half of Sunday. Progressive flow aloft and translating this to the sfc will result in the high`s center moving to the Eastern Carolinas early by Sun evening and to well offshore and east of the NC mainland by daybreak Mon. Winds will diminish to around 10 kt late Sun thru Sun night. Return E to SE flow on the back-side of the departing high will increase across the local waters during Monday...further veering to the S and SW and slightly increasing to around 15 kt Mon night. Significant seas will drop to 1 to 3 ft by Sun night into Mon followed by a building trend Mon night, remaining just below any Advisory or Cautionary thresholds. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Gusty SW winds ahead of a cold front will plague the waters Tue and Wed, with 10-15 kt winds Tuesday rising to 15-20 kts on Wednesday. FROPA is expected early Thursday accompanied by showers and a wind shift to the W/NW with continued speeds of 15-20 kts through late Thursday. Highest seas will occur late Wednesday into Thursday just ahead of the cold front, with 4-7 ft waves are expected and an SCA may be required. Otherwise, seas will be 2-4 ft during Tuesday on the light winds, and then Thursday thanks to the offshore component.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RAN

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