Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 091725 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1225 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A CHILLY AIR MASS IN THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE PASSAGE OF A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK COULD BE THE COLDEST OF THE YEAR. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MORE CLOUD COVER POISED TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME OF THEM ARE LOOKING A LITTLE CONVECTIVE. GLOBAL AND HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. HOWEVER WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON RADAR LOOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING COUPLED. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 5H CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE LONGWAVE 5H TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN HEIGHTS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE CLUTCHES OF THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. HIGHS WED AND THU STRUGGLE TO REACH 40...WITH LOW LEVEL PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. PERIOD WILL BE DRY BUT PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE 5H TROUGH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER WED AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER THU. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE A CONCERN WED THROUGH THU GIVEN TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND THE ANTICIPATED BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH VALUES APPROACHING SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES WED NIGHT. WINDS DO START TO EASE UP LATE THU AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE A FIXTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY THE AMPLITUDE VARYING. SURFACE HIGH IN THE AREA FRI IS PUSHED SOUTH BY PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SAT MORNING...DRIVEN SOUTH BY CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. FRONT PASSES DRY BUT IS TRAILED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR. LATEST GFS/ECMWF HAVE 850 TEMPS DROPPING BY ALMOST 15C IN A 24 HOUR SPAN FRI NIGHT TO SAT NIGHT. THE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE EASING ON SUN AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GUIDANCE IS POINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...STARTING LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY MON. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT WILL ALSO OPEN UP THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH COULD PRODUCE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THIS WINTER. SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING MON WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAINFALL BUT CURRENT SOLUTIONS SHOW LIMITED DYNAMICS. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF DURATION OF DEEP MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. SO EVEN IF SOME PRECIP DOES DEVELOP IT WOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. AS THIS EVENT IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT NOT READY TO GO WITH A HIGH POP BUT WILL INTRODUCE A SILENT 20 FOR MON. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON MON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL END UP WELL BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE SLOW RATE AT WHICH ARCTIC AIR MASSES MODIFY AND THE EXPECTED COLD START MON MORNING. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...BLUSTERY W WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT THROUGH 01Z. SLIGHT EASING OF WINDS TONIGHT. CIGS BKN045 AND BKN100. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF CYCLE. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED. SLIGHT EASING OF WINDS AFT 01Z TO A 27010KT-26007KT RANGE. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PREVENT FOG FORMATION...WHILE THE WESTERLY COMPONENT AND DRYISH LOW LEVELS PREVENTS LOW-BASED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30+ KT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDIITONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DO INCREASE A LITTLE BY 00 UTC BUT SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER GALE CRITERIA. CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF GALE GUSTS. NO SURPRISE WITH SEAS...6-9 FEET ACROSS OUTER WATERS WITH LOWER VALUES AS YOU MOVE TO THE COAST. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WED WILL KEEP WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 25 KT THROUGH WED NIGHT. ADVECTION STARTS TO WEAKEN ON THU WHICH ALLOWS FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY DECREASE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING TO NORTHEAST AND DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT ON WED WILL GRADUALLY START DECREASING LATE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE FALLING THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA FRI IS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH LATE FRI NIGHT BY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS SAT MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI WILL INCREASE A LITTLE DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER SAT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY SAT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW EXCEEDING 20 KT SAT AND 25 KT SAT NIGHT. GUSTS LATE SAT NIGHT MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FRI INTO SAT START BUILDING ON SAT...PEAKING IN THE 3 TO 6 FT RANGE LATE SAT NIGHT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...GUIDANCE STILL CALLING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING AT DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH CONSIDERING THE PAST FEW CYCLES AND LEVELS. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ107. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MJC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK

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