Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 070041 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 740 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON MONDAY AS A FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 700 PM FRIDAY...HIGHER CLOUDS HAVE STALLED ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVE...FINALLY COMPLETELY MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. AS THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH CRESTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT...EXPECT WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. THE AIR IN PLACE IS UNSEASONABLY DRY...DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR EARLY MARCH. BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE COLDEST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA MAY DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES WHILE THE BEACHES MAY NOT DROP BELOW THE UPPER 20S. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT FORECASTING RECORD LOWS. RECORD LOW VS FORECAST LOW FOR MARCH 7... ILM...20 SET IN 1960 VS 25 FLO...20 SET IN 1960 VS 24 CRE...22 SET IN 1954 VS 26
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...WITH FULL SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD MANAGE TO ATTAIN VALUES SOME 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY...ALBEIT STILL SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ELONGATED WEST-EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE LOCAL MID LEVEL FLOW IS OUT OF THE WEST. NOT MUCH CHANGES SATURDAY NIGHT SO WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS END UP BEING COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT ONLY BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. SOLAR MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS CONTINUES ON SUNDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE BOLSTERED BY SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND A FEW STREAKS OF CIRRUS CLOUDS. THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY DEEPEN DOWN INTO THE MID LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING SEASONABLY MILD LOW TEMPERATURES.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO CHANGE THIS PERIOD. LOOKING AT THE JET STREAM TO SPLIT INTO 2 DISTINCT ENTITIES...A NORTHERN STREAM AND A SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH...WITH THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE POLAR/ARCTIC AIR MASSES TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THIS UPCOMING TIME PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THEY WANT TO EXTEND THE RIDGING FROM 1 OR 2 OF THESE POLAR/ARCTIC HIGHS DOWN THE EAST COAST RESULTING IN WEAK WEDGING ON TUE...AND AGAIN ON FRI. THAT MEANS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BASICALLY CONTROL THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE U.S. WHICH INCLUDES THE ILM CWA. RIGHT OFF...THIS MEANS TEMPS ACROSS THE ILM CWA WILL RETURN TO ATLEAST THEIR CLIMO NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE FLOW ALOFT UNFORTUNATELY TAPS INTO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND STREAMS IT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...MAINLY DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THEY WANT TO EXTEND THE RIDGING FROM THESE ARCTIC HIGHS DOWN THE EAST COAST RESULTING IN A WEAK SFC WEDGE ON TUE...AND A BIT STRONGER ONE DURING FRI. THE POSITIONING AND MOVEMENT OF THE COASTAL FRONT OR TROF WILL BE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE ILM CWA. MEANING...IT WILL HAVE A PROFOUND AFFECT ON TEMPS AND THE CONCENTRATION AND AMOUNT OF PCPN. FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED OVERRUNNING TYPE OF CLOUDINESS THRUOUT MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION...A SLIGHT TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN. AS FOR TEMPS...THE CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL KEEP MAX/MIN TEMPS LIMITED AND WITHIN A LOW NOCTURNAL RANGE. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STRATOCU CIG AROUND 4-5KFT WILL CONTINUES TO LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SKC CONDITIONS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ON SATURDAY...VFR CONTINUES WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AOB 8 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR WITH PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 700 PM FRIDAY...ALL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS...BRINGING AN INCREASINGLY SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT. N WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL DROP TO NEAR 10 KT OR LESS TOWARD MORNING. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 FT OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS...4 FT OUT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. N TO NE WINDS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS ELONGATED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. AS THE DAY WEARS ON THIS HIGH WILL ELONGATE FURTHER EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS AND JUST ABOUT SHUT DOWN THE GRADIENT FOR A TIME BEFORE A LIGHT S TO SW FLOW TAKES OVER NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. ON SUNDAY THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST WHILE ANOTHER CENTER BECOMES DEFINED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS LEAVES A VERY WEAK GRADIENT LOCALLY FOR MINIMAL WIND AND SEAS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING MON THRU TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK WEDGE SCENARIO WITH A COASTAL TROF LYING JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. THE RIDGING...IE. WEDGE...TO BREAK DOWN RATHER QUICKLY BY LATE TUE AS THE SOURCE OF THE COOL AIR...THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH...MOVES WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL TROF...AND TRACK NE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL WATERS BY LATE TUE NIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND RATHER LOOSE AND BENIGN PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY PRODUCE WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BASICALLY RUN 3 FEET OR LESS...POSSIBLY UP TO A FOOT OR 2 HIER IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROF. A 7 TO 9 SECOND EASTERLY GROUND SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM AT TIMES.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...SGL

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