Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 190602 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 102 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure today will move offshore tonight. Low pressure and its associated front will impact the area late tonight and on Friday. A strong area of low pressure will move across the deep south and bring significant rainfall to the Carolinas during the weekend. Strong thunderstorms are possible late Sunday into early Monday. Dry conditions will return Tuesday and Wednesday as mild high pressure builds in from the west.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1015 PM Wednesday...Will continue with a N to NE wind 5 mph or less away from the immediate coast...and 5 to 10 mph along the immediate coast. With the influx of drier air and little or no pcpn associated with the CFP earlier, will continue the theme of no fog development even across locations that may temporarily go calm at times as the center of High pressure upstream moves closer. No tweaking applied for tonights lows which will run in the low to mid 40s, with a few upper 40s across the southernmost portions of the FA. Latest IR sat imagery trends and various model rh time height displays, both indicate mainly thin Cirrus advecting overhead overnight with mostly clear phraseology for sky conditions. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Wednesday... Upper ridging and weak surface pattern to bring a sunny start to Thursday. Late in the day a few clouds will move in from the SW ahead of the next system and the ridging aloft moves off the coast. Highs in the low 60s while cooler than today are still almost 10 degrees above normal. A more precipitous increase in moisture is slated for Thursday night. Models have been slowing with the arrival of rain chances Thursday night. It now appears that most of the rain is slated for Friday with a weak warm front and mid level shortwave. QPF prospects appear marginalized by the deepest mositure being shunted well to our north.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Wednesday...Weak mid level ridge axis will move offshore Sat, tapping GOMEX moisture for the start of next week. Strong southwest flow, 300 mb jet exceeds 100kt at times, ahead of deepening southern stream system will spread deep moisture over the southeast. Precipitable water values will exceed 1.5 inches at times but there will also be some wrap around dry air to contend with. Strong low level jet, especially later Sun and Sun night does still pose a severe weather threat, but both the GFS and ECMWF have trended slightly faster with the system. Strong, veering winds ahead of the front, which is now progged to pass Mon morning, will lead to an abundance of shear but instability will be lacking. 850mb jet Sun night is likely to exceed 50 kt, which if mixed to the surface would likely result in at least a few severe storms. However, mixing will be the problem, especially given the nocturnal timing. So while severe weather cannot be ruled out it is more likely to be an isolated occurrence as opposed to a widespread event. Stacked low passes over the area Mon into Mon night. Diurnal convection is likely, mainly in the form of isolated showers and thunderstorms, as the cool core of the low moves into the area during peak heating. Trough may become negatively tilted as it exits the region Mon night but it is not likely to have an impact on the forecast area. Mid level ridging and weak high pressure will follow the exiting system and linger over the southeast through mid week. The surface high has origins in the southwest with little to no cold air present. Temperatures through the period will remain above to well above climo.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 06Z...VFR conditions throughout the taf period. Surface high pressure will build in from the northwest early this morning and from the north this afternoon. The center of this high will slide off the Outer Banks this evening. Thin to opaque cirrus will move overhead today becoming thicker with possible altocu clouds this evening as the mid-level ridge axis moves overhead. Looking at N to NE winds less than 10 kt except becoming E to ESE in direction this evening. Extended Outlook...IFR ceilings and vsbys are possible, especially across the inland terminals Fri night into Sat morning as a warm front and rainfall event develops. IFR conditions possible late Sun into Mon as a strong low pressure system impacts the area.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1015 PM Wednesday...Could see a few leftover 20 kt wind gusts from the N to NE fading surge otherwise the pre-dawn Thu hours will see a more stable N to NE wind at 10 to occasionally 15 kt. Significant seas will run in the 2 to 3 foot range, with 4 footers across the ILM NC Waters early. Wind driven waves at 4 to 5 second periods will dominate the seas. The easterly ground swell affecting the local waters for more than a week now, has finally degraded to the point where it is no longer identifiable by the local and offshore buoys. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Pretty minimal wind and seas Thursday as a weak high builds in from the north. This will initially bring a light NE wind but as the high moves off the coast they will veer in direction. A light SE flow Thursday night could allow the daytime 2 ft waves to shrink even further. A warm front will turn the wind to SW by Friday with no significant increase in wind speed so waves won`t change much. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Surface and mid level ridging will shift off the coast Sat, leaving light southerly flow over the waters. Speeds will remain 10 kt or less into Sun before starting to increase ahead of approaching storm system. Well developed storm will move across the southern states Sun and Mon, increasing low level southerly flow to a solid 20 kt Sun night and Mon. Front associated with the low will move across the waters late Mon with winds veering from south- southeast to southwest late Mon and Mon night. Cold air is lacking but gradient will keep winds 15 to 20 kt through the end of the period. Seas 2 to 3 ft Sat into Sun start to build in response to the increasing southerly flow. SCA headlines will likely be needed Sun night and could continue through the end of the period with seas approaching 10 ft at their highest.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...DCH/RJD

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