Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 192047
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
347 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm air will continue to funnel northward into
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through Tuesday. An unsettled
weather pattern will then be in place through the upcoming
weekend, allowing for multiple rounds of rain across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A warm front will continue to lift north into the Great Lakes
tonight. Unseasonably warm air on southerly winds will be place.
Skies will range from mostly cloudy to partly cloudy. In a moist
southwest flow aloft, the deepest moisture plume/pwats will
shift to our north and west. However, it will still be skimming
near our western/northwestern periphery to keep a threat of
showers going there as weak embedded disturbances ripple through
the southwest flow aloft.

Lows will be very warm due to clouds and continued
southerly/gusty winds. They will range from the upper 50s to
the lower 60s. These temperatures are some 30-35 degrees above
normal. Record high minimums will be broken. Please see the
climate section of this AFD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Anomalous strong subtropical mid level ridge located off the
southeast U.S. coast will keep main plume of moisture at bay to
our west on Tuesday. Thus, much of the area will remain dry,
except the far northwest where a shower can not be ruled out. A
mix of cumulus clouds and cirrus clouds can be expected from mid
morning to mid afternoon. Diurnal heating and a decent pressure
gradient will result in gusty southerly winds in the upper 20s
to lower 30 knots. Given the unseasonably warm air in place,
along with filtered sunshine at times, highs will warm into the
lower 70s northwest to near 80 southeast. Record highs look to
be in jeopardy. Please see the climate section of this AFD.

For Tuesday night, strong subtropical mid level ridge will
become a little suppressed as mean 500 mb troughing pushes east
into the Great Lakes and Ohio. This will allow deep moisture
plume and associated cold front to slowly make in roads into our
forecast area. As a result showers will be on the increase
overnight from northwest to southeast. There may be enough
instability for a rumble of thunder. Lows will range from the
upper 40s northwest to the lower 60s east/south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term continues to be advertised as active with multiple
rounds of precipitation and temperatures above normal for this time
of year. The general idea for the long term will be a potent upper
level ridge anchoring off the east coast of the United States with
an upper level trough axis over the west coast. Between these two
systems (or over our area) multiple rounds of precipitation will be
possible.

Wednesday morning a surface cold front will be approaching our
northwestern zones with a line of showers and embedded thunder
approaching. MUCAPE values decrease as the front heads southeast and
forecast soundings on the GFS don`t look to great. Have kept the
mention of thunder in though thanks to the proximity of the RRQ.
During the day Wednesday the cold front will slowly sag southeast,
but the precipitation will continue as low level southwest flow
brings PVA across the area. At the same time the low level (850 MB)
front will stall across central Ohio. The best upper level support
from the RRQ will be located just off to our northwest, but still
should be sufficiently close. Also at this time, PWATs are forecast
to be around 1.3 to 1.4" (or near record values for this time of
year).

During the day Thursday, models continue to struggle on the
evolution of the cold front that pushed through the area on
Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF have the front stalled south of
the area Thursday, but the difference is in a low level shortwave
that is pushing northeast around the subtropical ridge. The latest
ECMWF has the wave moving across the forecast area while the GFS is
more progressive. Given the forecast strength of the subtropical
ridge (~595 DM) have leaned more towards the less progressive and
more wet ECMWF, NAM and CMC. During the day Friday the cold front
will wash out and head north as a warm front. As this happens PWATs
surge back up to near 1.50". At the same time a surface low will
surge northeast along the baroclinic zone. It should be noted that
the deterministic runs of the GFS continue to run high compared to
the ensemble mean. Still though heavy rain can be expected through
this period.

Late Friday into Saturday the pattern looks to finally change as the
impressive ridge off the east coast begins to break down. As this
happens the trough axis over the west coast will be free to progress
east. This will allow for one more round of precipitation during the
day Saturday. As the upper level low heads east it will open up with
surface cyclogenesis occurring. The surface low will then head east
and pass overhead. As of now it appears the ILN forecast area will
reside close to the triple point. Sunday afternoon the low will pull
east with surface high pressure and drier weather moving into the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A warm front will continue to lift north to the southern Great
Lakes this afternoon. Widespread showers associated with the
front should lift north of all terminals by mid to late
afternoon. MVFR conditions should improve to VFR by this
evening. Gusty winds from the south will diminish some by this
evening.

For tonight, warm, southerly flow will continue. There will be a
slight increase in winds to bring gusts back in by 06Z. In
addition, nocturnal low level jet over the top of the region
will enhance, bringing the threat of non-convective LLWS around
2000 feet. Models indicate that in the low level moist flow,
some MVFR ceilings may redevelop, especially for KDAY/KCMH/KLCK.

On Tuesday, significant warm air advection and diurnal mixing
will continue and increase southerly winds. Wind gusts by 17Z
should range from the upper 20s to the lower 30s knots.
Lingering MVFR ceilings at the northern terminals should lift to
VFR during the morning. Precipitation in the form of showers
will stay to the north and west of the terminals.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visbilities to return Tuesday
night into Wednesday night. MVFR conditions possible at times
Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Maximum Temperatures for February 20...
CVG...72 degrees...1891/2016
CMH...68 degrees...1891/2016
DAY...69 degrees...2016

Forecast Maximum Temperatures for February 20 2018...
CVG...77 degrees
CMH...75 degrees
DAY...74 degrees

Record High Minimum Temperatures for February 20...
CVG...52 degrees...1994
CMH...49 degrees...1930
DAY...49 degrees...1930

Forecast Minimum Temperatures for February 20 2018...
CVG...60 degrees
CMH...59 degrees
DAY...60 degrees

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Haines
AVIATION...Hickman
CLIMATE...Hickman



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