Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 020154

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
954 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

High pressure will build into the Great Lakes, offering dry
weather Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will return Sunday
ahead of low pressure approaching from the the west.


Diurnal cumulus clouds have dissipated, leaving only a line of clouds
across northern Kentucky into southern Ohio. These clouds should
drop se while dissipating, leaving clear skies for the overnight.

With high pressure and drier air building in, temperatures are
expected to drop to the middle and upper 50s.


Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building southeast
across the Ohio Valley Saturday. Expect a good amount of sunshine
early with an increase in mainly high level clouds through the day.
In CAA pattern 8H temperatures to drop to readings between 10 deg C
and 12 deg C by 18Z. Highs will be around 5 degrees below normal
with highs ranging from the upper 70s north to the lower 80s south.

The flow backs westerly with the surface high shifting to our east
Saturday night. Weak isentropic lift develops into the southwest late
Saturday night ahead of s/w and associated sfc low. Will continue to
increase clouds with a chance of showers/thunderstorms into the
southwest toward sunrise Sunday. Lows to range from the upper 50s
north to the lower 60s south.


A warm front will be extending into the ILN area Sunday ahead of low
pressure centered to the west. In a very moist airmass containing
around 2.25 inches of precipitable water, and with sounding profiles
showing near saturation through much of the troposphere, rain will
develop in isentropic lift along the front. This will be a slow
moving system, with the east-west oriented warm front nearly
parallel to the mid level flow, producing a prolonged period of rain
that could last through Sunday night into Monday. These factors
point to heavy rainfall, with precipitation amounts perhaps around 2
inches. This scenario could lead to flooding, and will continue to
mention in HWO, possibly leading up to watches and warnings as the
event unfolds. With models showing little to no surface based CAPE,
widespread thunderstorms are not expected.

As the low weakens to the west and the front sags south of the area,
widespread showers will end by Tuesday. However, mainly afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible in a very warm and humid airmass that
will be in place Tuesday through Friday.

Temperatures will be exhibiting a warming trend. Readings may be
limited to the 70s Sunday under widespread clouds and precipitation.
After a slight boost to around 80 on Monday, highs will continue to
increase, reaching the 90s by Thursday and Friday.


Cu will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating, leaving clear
skies overnight. A cirrus ceiling will work into the tafs around
sunrise Sunday on the zonal H5 flow. Clouds will slowly lower and
thicken as the day progresses, but VFR condition are expected
through the taf period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible
Sunday night into Tuesday.




LONG TERM...Coniglio
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