Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 200559
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
159 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance will move through the area,
offering a few showers and thunderstorms today. Drier
conditions are expected for the end of the week into the weekend
as upper level ridging builds into the Ohio Valley. Above
normal temperatures will continue into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are persisting this evening
across parts of the area. This is associated with an upper
level trough pivoting through the region along with some
embedded short wave energy. Think we will still see a weakening
trend as we progress into tonight and continue to lose the
instability. However, will linger some lower chance pops
through much of the night as the trough axis swings overhead.
With a fair amount of lingering low level moisture, areas of
fog will also likely develop later tonight, especially in areas
that are able to experience some better clearing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
During the day Wednesday have left a slight chance of showers
with isolated thunder across the eastern zones, but taking a
look at the position of the upper level shortwave it appears
that most of the precip will be confined to our far eastern
zones. It should be noted coverage should be sparse across our
area though as the Ohio valley remains in the weak subsidence
zone on the back size of the shortwave. Also on the backside of
the shortwave dry mid and upper level air begins to move in from
the east. During the day Wednesday 850 mb temperatures also
rise to around 17 degrees C and with partly sunny skies highs
will likely reach the mid 80s. Have gone ahead and raised high
temperatures a bit.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Tricky forecast at the beginning of the extended. Leftover moisture
associated with decaying frontal boundary is found over the region.
Even though an upper ridge is trying to dominate the region, there
appears that there will be enough sfc convergence that pop-up
convection can`t be ruled out. Added 20 PoPs for Thursday, but it
might need to be increased to chance PoPs as we get a little closer.

The H5 ridge then builds in and becomes the dominant feature
through the weekend and into early next week.  High temperatures
will be about 10 degrees above normal through the period as they
push into the mid and upper 80s. Morning lows will start out 60-65
degrees, then cool a few degrees to around 60 for the latter part of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak mid level s/w trof to pivot east of the area today with
ridging to begin building into the west this afternoon. A
few showers or perhaps a thunderstorm is possible over KCMH and
KLCK this aftn but expected coverage is too limited to mention
more than VCSH at this time.

Meanwhile, with good low level moisture present, light winds and
clearing skies, expect the development of some IFR vsbys in fog
early this morning, along with some possible MVFR to IFR cigs.
These conditions will likely linger through mid morning before
improving by afternoon.

Skies will clear tonight with patchy fog developing. Have
limited the mention to MVFR vsby restriction.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...AR



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