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000
FXUS61 KILN 312012
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
412 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DURING THE
LATTER PARTS OF THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CWA DO NOT WARRANT INCLUSION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CU FIELD IS WEAK AND NOT EXHIBITING
ANY SIGNS OF DEEPENING OR STRENGTHENING. AS THE SUN ANGLE SHIFTS
EVEN LOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE DAY...THESE SHOWERS AND CU
WILL BOTH DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS
EVENING AND LOWS WILL DROP TO SIMILAR VALUES AS LAST
NIGHT...AROUND 60 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A BIT MORE OF THE SAME IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE WEEKS END. A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A KINK IN THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS WILL PERMIT MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS AT A MINIMUM...SO SCATTERED GARDEN-VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 OR IN
THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY...RATHER NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER.
31.00Z AND 31.00Z GEFS/NAEFS ANOMALIES SUGGEST LOW/MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS AND TEMPS...AS WELL AS PWATS ALL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS IT IS NO SURPRISE TO SEE VERY LOW STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ON ECMWF/GEFS MOS DATA...AND DETERMINISTIC MOS
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SUMMERTIME NORMALS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THUS...VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...LOWER
80S IN CENTRAL/WESTCENTRAL OHIO TO MID AND UPPER 80S IN NORTHERN
KENTUCKY WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL SUMMERTIME WX FOR EARLY
AUGUST.

IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES...STILL UNCERTAINTY ON SUNDAY. RECENT
TRENDS IN DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF IS FOR SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSION/QUICKNESS IN THE SHARP MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...WITH WHATEVER WEAK
FORCING MORE FOCUSED EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL
MIDLEVEL TROUGHING IN A POSI-TILT FASHION FROM PA BACK INTO THE
OZARKS AS A PIECE OF ENERGY SEPARATES FROM THE FLOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. KEPT SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BUT
THERE IS NOT A GREAT DEAL TO FOCUS ON FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
WITH SUCH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...HAVE TO THINK THAT IF ANYTHING
OCCURS TO THE WEST /SOUTHWEST OHIO/SERN IND/FAR NRN KY IT IS GOING
TO BE AWFULLY LIGHT/ISOLATED.

SUN NIGHT/MON/MON NIGHT STILL LOOK DRY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND TROUGHING
IN THE MIDLEVELS BECOMES FLATTER AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF THE SUNDAY WAVE. TUESDAY I AM PROBABLY A
LITTLE AGGRESSIVE ON RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH...MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS STILL PRETTY NEGLIGIBLE BUT THERE IS SOME INFLUENCE/MINOR
LOWERING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAK RETURN FLOW THAT
MAY PROMOTE A FEW STORMS TO SAG FROM MI/IND INTO OUR NORTH TUES/TUES
NIGHT. NOT THRILLED ABOUT THE CHANCES AND I MAY PULL THIS CHANCE ON
NEXT ISSUANCE IF SIGNAL DOESN/T IMPROVE.

A LITTLE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE PUSH BY THURSDAY AS FLOW
INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WITH ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE. OUR BL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE
INCREASING BY THEN /MID UPPER 60S DWPTS/ VIA EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SO
THIS IS WORTH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS.

OVERALL...SUMMER WX FINALLY RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH 80S BY
DAY...60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...DIURNAL CUMULUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD OR AFTERNOON SUNSET. THERE COULD BE A POP
UP INSTABILITY SHOWER/STORM BUT PROBABILITY IS ABOUT 10 TO 15
PERCENT. OVERNIGHT...REGION SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
WINDS CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WE SHOULD AGAIN HAVE SOME
MIST/FOG AT THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS OF KILN...KLUK...AND
KLCK. KLUK WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS DUE TO THE RIVER VALLEY
INFLUENCES.

ON FRIDAY...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
AREA WHILE A DISTURBANCE EJECTS NORTHEAST NEAR OUR SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...WE SHOULD SEE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE MORNING WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...HICKMAN