Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 250927
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
527 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID WEEK. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MOISTURE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO A POSITION ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE FUNNELING NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE HIGH
TO THE EAST AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASING CLOUDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN EMBEDDED
S/WV WHICH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MS VLY TO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A VORTICITY AXIS ALOFT WILL COMBINED WITH A
SUBTLE CONVERGENT AXIS IN THE LOW LEVELS TO BRING THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND
NCEP/ESRL HRRR RUNS...LIKELY POPS ARE PROBABLY NEEDED FOR THE FAR
WRN ZONES FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING
AND A MORE MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD TRANSITION THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE (AXIS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS) TO A SCATTERED
DISTRIBUTION AS IT HEADS EAST. ANOTHER WEATHER ELEMENT TO CONSIDER
TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MIXING OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH FAR
NORTHWEST WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS (AROUND 20 MPH) IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...MOST AREA SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE WEIGHTED THE FORECAST BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS AND
AVAILABLE HIGH RES/CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL WANE THIS EVENING AS
S/WV AND SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AXIS PIVOT NORTH AND EAST.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE CONFINED MORE TO OUR SRN ZONES.
BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH. SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

FOR TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV IN THE
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE
ECMWF...INDICATE ANOTHER POSSIBLE CONVERGENT AXIS. THE DEEP
MOISTURE (PWATS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80 INCHES) WILL INTERACT WITH
AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN LIKELY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT PART OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK. IT LOOKS LIKE
THAT IT MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO OBTAIN LOW END MODERATE SHEAR/LOW
END MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALSO..GIVEN TALL SKINNY CAPES PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE LOW. THE FLOW IS
MODEST IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...SO IF SOME STORMS CAN ORGANIZE
INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS...SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLE SEVERE
GUSTS...MAY OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW THREAT FOR SVR
IN THE HWO.

FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV
MOVES NORTHEAST FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER S/WV APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY S/WV WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE A DIURNAL MIN IN CONVECTION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER UPTICK DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE
60S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE PCPN CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF ANY EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES...WILL TRY TO SHOW SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE
PCPN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INITIALLY THIS
WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN CHANCES. A
BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL THEN RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
SLOWER ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SO
AM HESITANT TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE POPS AT
THIS POINT.

HIGHS WILL  REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SOME MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS MAY RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS SPREADING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WITH 925-850MB LAYER FLOW UP TO 50KTS AT TIMES AS THIS LOW
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM SHIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SCT-BKN MID CLOUD AND
CIRRUS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER OH/IN/KY...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN SPREADING STEADILY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER IN KY/IN
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

EXPECT THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UP INTO
SWRN OH BY ABOUT 08Z THOUGH EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
LIKELY JUST VIRGA/SPRINKLES. DID KEEP VCSH GOING FOR A TIME ACROSS
ALL BUT THE CNTL OHIO SITES THROUGH MID MORNING AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES THROUGH. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.

BIGGER STORY IS STRONGER FLOW WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE AROUND 12Z WITH GUSTS BECOMING COMMON.
EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUSTS THIS MORNING /BEFORE 17Z/ WITH ONSET OF
HEATING AND PRESENCE OF STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT...AND SOME GUSTS
TOWARD 30KTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THOUGH WILL KEEP TAFS IN
THE 25-27KT RANGE. DID NOT PLACE LLWS IN TERMINALS DUE TO GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SPEEDS/LACK OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2KFT.
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE SOME MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ESPECIALLY IN
THE 08Z-11Z TIMEFRAME BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO
DECREASE SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2KFT.

AFTER 18Z...COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE SHOWERS/STORMS IN SCT FASHION
INTO EARLY EVENING. WEAKLY/LOOSELY FORCED SO WILL KEEP VCSH
MENTION FOR NOW. EXPECT MID CLOUDS AND DECREASING/BACKING FLOW
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS WANE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...BINAU






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