Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 291856
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
256 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak upper level disturbances will lead to the
possibility of a few showers or thunderstorms through mid
week. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonable through the
week with daytime highs in the 70s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A line of some fairly healthy looking cu on satellite have
developed this afternoon along the I-71 corridor. We are
starting to see a few very weak returns on radar across central
Ohio. ML capes are still showing some weak cin across the area
though and the forecast soundings hang on to a bit of a mid
level cap through much of the afternoon. As a result, there is
some uncertainty as to how much more this will develop as we
progress through late afternoon. Nonetheless, will go ahead and
allow for a few showers associated with this through the rest
of the afternoon hours, especially across central Ohio.
Otherwise, a weak surface trough will drop down across the area
through tonight. Moisture and forcing is pretty limited so will
just allow for some slight chance pops to sag southeast across
our area through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak surface ridge will push quickly east across the mid Ohio
Valley through the day on Tuesday. This should help keep us
mainly dry through the daytime period and slightly cooler with
highs ranging from the lower 70s northwest to the upper 70s in
the far southeast.

Additional short wave energy rotating around an upper level low
over the northern Great Lakes will work across our area Tuesday
night. This will be accompanied by some weak isentropic lift.
However, moisture is still somewhat limited so will keep pops in
the lower chance category. Instability is also marginal and
with it being nighttime, will limit pcpn to just showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The chance for showers and thunderstorms will diminish Wednesday as
a cold front moves east. High pressure following on the northwest
upper flow will provide dry weather through early Thursday. Showers
and thunderstorms may return Thursday night along a developing
frontal boundary. The front is then forecast to become nearly
parallel to the flow aloft, resulting in slow movement. Persistent
moisture and convergence along the boundary will allow the threat for
showers and thunderstorms to continue Friday through Saturday and
Sunday, until a vigorous low pressure system disrupts the pattern.
After the low and cold front move east, high pressure should bring
drier conditions on Monday.

Temperatures are forecast to stay relatively close to normal, with
highs mainly in the 70s, and lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cu has filled in nicely across the area and this may lead to
some ocnl bkn VFR clouds through the afternoon hours. A weak
boundary will drop down from the northwest through this evening
and this could lead to an increase in some sct-bkn ac. Forcing
is weak, but a few light showers will also be possible tonight.
Some patchy fog will be possible later tonight, especially at
KLUK. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through the period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible on Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...JGL


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