Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 281052
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
652 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will move across northern Kentucky and
into West Virginia today. High pressure will build in behind
the departing low for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front has dropped down to around the Ohio River early
this morning. This has been the focus for showers/isolated
thunderstorms through the night, and the majority of computer
guidance suggests this will continue through sunrise with the
frontal boundary in place and a surface low across southern
Indiana. Therefore, have high chance, even some likely pops
across portions of northern Kentucky, tapering off to slight
chance pops not too far north of the Ohio River through sunrise.

Highest pops will likely continue to reside across northern
Kentucky to start the day, then as low pressure moves east-
northeast along the front, eventually into West Virginia, will
likely see the most concentrated area of convection focus across
the east/southeast portion of the CWA closer to the low. This
is supported by several computer models and latest SREFS.
Convection may be efficient rainfall producers and therefore
locally heavy rainfall is possible. A few storms may also
produce isolated strong gusty winds, particularly this
afternoon.

There may be some late day breaks in the clouds across the
northwest CWA, otherwise plenty of clouds will help hold
temperatures below normal today, with maxima only rising into
the upper 70s/around 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Any evening showers, mainly across the eastern CWA, will come
to an end as low pressure moves further away from the area
tonight. North/northwest flow will bring in drier air, and
support clearing skies from west to east tonight. This will pave
the way for a good deal of sunshine on Saturday, with lower
humidity and temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below average.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pattern of a ridge over the west/trough in the east looks to
continue for much of the long term, placing the Ohio Valley in a
northwest flow. At the surface, high pressure builds from the
Great Lakes Sunday into Monday before shifting east for the
middle of the week.

Dry conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday as
temperatures moderate back into the mid 80s for highs/mid 60s
for lows. A cold front will approach toward the end of the
week, but timing is still uncertain. With moisture/instability
increase, have a chance of thunderstorms on Thursday and if the
front is still in the vicinity then the chance of thunderstorms
may continue into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR cigs will persist for a few hours until some stronger winds
mix out the low level moisture in the region. Exceptions here
would include CVG and LUK as the rain and showers associated
with the developing surface circulation will last into the
morning hours. Remaining TAF sites should stay dry but will
continue to monitor upstream development and amend if the
scattered to isolated activity to the north approaches any of
them.

This surface low and battling airmasses will be a focus for
shower development, and possibly a thunderstorm. However, did
not include thunderstorms in the forecast today as heating of
the day should occur after the rain moves east and southeast
away from CVG/LUK. Would like to continue to see how, these
storms develop this morning and if they contain strong enough
updrafts for deeper convection.

Wind will pick up this late afternoon and see some sustained
15kt with gusts 20-25kt in the rush of cooler air. While this
will help scour out any surface moisture, some cloud cover below
1kft may be present, and could develop into a low stratus deck
given the strength of the cold air advection.

OUTLOOK...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...Franks



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