Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 011739
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
139 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO WORK VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. WILL KEEP POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE LOW. FLOW ALOFT IS RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME HEADWAY AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS CHILLICOTHE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR CHANCE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MORESO DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. H5 RIDGING WILL TAKE ITS PLACE IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL
U.S. ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER
ON LOW TEMPERATURES WITH MINIMA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT
TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS INDIANA.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WORK TOWARD OUR FA AND WE DESTABILIZE A
BIT MORE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL COVER THIS THREAT
WITH A VCTS. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CU SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING AND START TO LOSE THE
DIURNAL HEATING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS...ALONG WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHER RES MODELS...ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
SHOWER/POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AT LEAST WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS THOUGH...WILL JUST ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
VFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH A VCSH AT THE WESTERN TAF SITES.
WILL NOT HIT THE BR/FG RESTRICTIONS QUITE AS HARD TONIGHT...BUT
THIS IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME
CLOUD COVER REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. IF THIS DOES NOT
OCCUR...WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR MVFR TO IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS/JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JGL


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