Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 190137
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
937 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL SLIP OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...OFFERING LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD  ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WITH APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER REMAINS BENIGN OVER THE ILN CWA...A FEW OF
THE DETAILS ARE NOT BEING HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE COMPUTER
MODELS. WINDS THIS EVENING WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS...AND MOST OF THE CWA HAS DROPPED OFF TO CALM CONDITIONS
AFTER SUNSET. THE NEW GRIDS ARE LIGHTER WITH THE WINDS UNTIL
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES BEGIN TO BECOME
TIGHTER AFTER 06Z. WITH THE CALMER WINDS (AT LEAST TO START THINGS
OFF)...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST.

HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...EVEN THOUGH THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT BY
NOW. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...THE CLOUDS ARE RELATIVELY
THICK...WITH IR TEMPERATURES OF -30 TO -40 CELSIUS. SKY GRIDS WERE
BUMPED UPWARDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THIS MAY NOT
HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE VERY
HIGH AND THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
SPLIT FLOW WITH NRN STREAM TROF PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER LOW STAYING WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE GULF STATES.
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT EVIDENT ON SATL BISECTING ILN/S FA. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TO OUR NORTH...MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO WEAKEN AS THE FRONT DROPS SE AND PASSES THRU
DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE DISSIPATING WEAK
FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID
40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM NEAR
60 NORTH TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTH. SFC HIGH TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN.
SATURDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
40S SOUTH.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE TO PROVIDE A NICE WARM UP.  EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE SUNDAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 70S SOUTH.

WARM ADVECTION MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT.
NAM IS QUICKER WITH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LATEST RUN
DEVELOPS LIGHT PRECIP INTO SW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN WAA PATTERN.
NAM IS ONLY RUN WITH PRECIP AND ALL OTHER MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY
SLOWER. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FCST SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD
SIDE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPR 40S NE
TO NEAR LOWER 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE BUILDING IN FOR LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE DRY AS WELL AS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. A RATHER
VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL LOCATION AND SUNSHINE
AMOUNT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR MONDAY
IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OF WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT. A RETURN TO THE 60S AND 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH-BASED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID-EVENING...LEAVING JUST SOME VERY THIN HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE
REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
TAFS WILL ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE THE OVERALL PREVAILING
DIRECTION...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS OF
10-15 KNOTS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS






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