Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
FXUS61 KILN 311422
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1022 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
A weak upper level disturbance will move across the region today
bringing a slight chance of rain towards the northern part of the
area. A low pressure system will begin to approach the area
Wednesday afternoon with a cold front moving through the area Thursday
into Thursday night.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Another warm day is expected this afternoon with dewpoints/
humidity values staying about where they were yesterday. Some high
res models are showing weak development of showers along a
boundary that is across our northern zones with a weak upper level
disturbance helping to kick them off. Think this is a bit overdone
as a large wedge of mid level dry air remains across the area.
Slight chance PoPs more than cover this. Only minor changes to
forecast at this time.
Mid and high clouds will continue to overspread the area today. A
weak upper level disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers
to the northern portions of the region this afternoon and evening.
Went on the cool side of guidance for today. With weak upper level
disturbance and additional cloud cover believe temperatures will
be around or a little cooler than guidance.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions are expected for the overnight hours and into the
daytime morning hours on Wednesday. A low pressure system will
begin to approach the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night. There is not a lot of support Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night and therefore limited precipitation chances to a
slight chance or chance. Better chances for showers and
thunderstorms will occur during the day on Thursday as the area of
low pressure and associated frontal boundary begin to work into
the region. Precipitation chances will linger into Thursday
With most of the precipitation holding off Wednesday afternoon
temperatures are expected to soar into the upper 80s. Temperatures
will be a little cooler on Thursday with additional cloud cover
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For the upcoming weekend and into early next week, the upper
level pattern will transition to a broad long wave trough over the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure on Saturday
will give way to a weak disturbance Saturday night into Sunday.
Have kept a low chance of showers and storms with this system. In
a northwest flow pattern aloft, we may be between systems on
Monday. It should be noted that models tend to not handle the
timing of northwest moving systems. In either case, have kept
Monday dry for now.
Cooler readings with highs mostly in the 70s are expected Friday
into early next week.
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Few to
scattered high based cumulus will occur through the day with
extensive cirrus. Winds will eventually become northeast at less
than 10 kt. High clouds will persist through the end of the TAF
period with light winds veering to the east.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday Night into