Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 201136
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
636 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A
WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION HAS SPREAD WEAK ECHOES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THIS IS
LIKELY IN THE MID LEVELS. BUT THE COLUMN MAY SATURATE ENOUGH FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WHICH WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY
WITH LITTLE DIURNAL RISE. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER NAM MOS
NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE
RIDGING WILL OCCUR WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EVENTUALLY BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OFF WITH FLOW BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. APPEARS THAT STUBBORN LOW
CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN FOR TONIGHT BUT THEN SCATTER ON SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BRINGING A RETURN OF CLOUDS ALTHOUGH WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY. FORCING LOOKS
NEBULOUS AND HAVE ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.

FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE MOS TONIGHT BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
A MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY BLENDING IN COOLER RAW MODEL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG APPROACHING
SYSTEM. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE
ALTHOUGH THIS FAR OUT IN TIME THESE ARE NOT SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO
MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST OF SENSIBLE WEATHER.

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS FORCING GETS
CLOSER/STRONGER. EXPECT RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGEST LIFT MOVES
NORTHEAST. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING ALTHOUGH AT THAT TIME HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION STILL
OCCURRING IS IN QUESTION. SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY DURING THIS TIME.

RIDGING DEVELOPS RATHER QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AND MOVES EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
TAF SITES. HAVE THIS LIGHT SNOW BRIEFLY WORKING INTO KCVG AND
KLUK. KILN WILL BE MORE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW AND THEREFORE ONLY
HAVE A VCSH MENTION THERE. MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD ALLOWING FOR
MOST OF THE AREA TAF SITES TO RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION AND WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK





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