Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 262354

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
654 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

A weak upper level disturbance will cross east through the Ohio
Valley tonight and early Monday, initiating a period of rain
along and southeast of the I-71 corridor. A low pressure system
over the upper midwest on Tuesday will lift a warm front through
the Ohio Valley. As the low crosses into Canada from the Great
Lakes region, a cold front will drop southeast into the Gulf of
Mexico and see showers and thunderstorms develop along it
Tuesday night into Wednesday.


Increasing cloud cover will be the rule tonight over the Ohio
Valley. As this moisture streams in, some light rain will
develop, primarily southeast of Cincinnati towards daybreak. Min
temperatures tonight will be milder and above the freezing mark
in the middle to upper 30s.


Light rain will overspread the region Monday with the possible
exception of areas north and west of metro Dayton. The low level
jet riding northeast along the I-71 corridor and shortwave
moving east will see the chance for rain increase in this area
during the morning, then taper off early in the afternoon as
these forcing mechanisms exit the immediate area. Models were
trying to mix in some snow with this rain early on Monday but
the warmer processes occurring over above-freezing surface
temperatures has me remove this potential solution entirely.

Highs on Monday will range from 50-55 in most locations.

As the rain tapers off late in the day another stream of
moisture will necessitate an increased chance for showers
overnight, spreading from west to east. The warmer temperatures
moving in with this secondary system will have overnight
minimums in the 40s over the CWA.


Tuesday continues the active pattern with a surface low and
deepening trough over the northern plains approaches the area.
With increasing moisture and instability over the region, onset
of showers on Tuesday morning with a warm front lifting through
the area and increasing moisture. The uncertainty will be in
precipitation onset, and just how quickly the region will
saturate and coinciding with the cyclogenesis pushing into the
area. Some potential for strong storms with increasing
instability and bulk shear.

Tuesday night sets up a strong LLJ streak pushing into the Ohio
valley, bringing a setup for potentially heavy rain with most
solutions toward an along and south of the Ohio River solution for
the heaviest rainfall. Efficient moisture transport/Precipitable
Water values above the 90th percentile and a stalled boundary, and
with a setup blocking ridge off the SE coast. The main question is
in the details of exactly where the boundary will stall out before
finally kicking east of the area Wednesday night bringing a cold
front through the region bringing dry conditions through Thursday
morning before a clipper system pushes through the region late
Thursday into Friday. System begins as a rain/snow mix before all
snow showers Thursday night as the system pushes through the area.
Dry and seasonable conditions through the weekend.


Mid clouds will overspread the area early in the period and
predominate through much of the night. Showers will start to
spread into the Cincinnati area towards 12Z with a commensurate
lowering of the cloud bases. While precipitation is expected to
be light and not cause restrictions to visibility, the ceilings
will eventually lower to MVFR, possibly even below 2000 ft.
While it is a little less certain whether showers will impact
other terminals, the lowering of the ceilings will spread over
the other sites as well during the day. Expect MVFR ceilings to
start to improve very late in the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Tuesday into
Wednesday along with a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings
may linger into Wednesday night and be possible again Thursday
night. Wind gusts to 30 kts will be possible Wednesday afternoon
and evening.




NEAR TERM...Franks
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