Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 271712
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1212 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

No significant changes this morning in ongoing forecast.

Cold front on schedule moving into Illinois late this morning.
Substantially lower dew points should filter into the region in
its wake. However, current forecast in the lower 90s ahead of the
boundary still looks reasonable given 12z KILX sounding and latest
LAMP and NAM guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Any remaining chance of showers or thunderstorms should push south
of the central/SE Illinois forecast area by daybreak as a weak cold
front continues to push southward. Drier air behind the front is
resulting in mostly mid 60s dewpoints north of I-72 and this should
filter throughout the forecast area by afternoon. Early this
morning, however a few areas of fog are developing where
precipitation was prevalent and cloud cover is dissipating. These
include Schuyler county to around Springfield southward, as well as
from northern Moultrie county through Champaign and Danville. Have
added patchy fog to the forecast for this morning in these areas,
however don`t expect any dense fog to become prevalent as the
evening sounding shows a rather unfavorable moisture profile with
mixing ratio decreasing with height. Today`s high should range from
the upper 80s to around 90 along the I-74 corridor, to the low
90s to the south as the air mass hasn`t changed too dramatically
since yesterday, and more sunshine will take place. The more
noticeable difference will be less humidity resulting in heat
index peaking around the upper 80s to low 90s compared with
yesterday`s 95 to 100 degree values.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Secondary cold front will push through the forecast area this
evening, marking the start of an extended period of less humid
conditions which will last into the holiday weekend. As a broad
upper troughing pattern persists over the Midwest, periodic surges
of cooler air will drop southward out of Manitoba and Ontario. Low
temperatures by Wednesday morning are expected to be as cool as the
lower 50s over the northeast CWA, and while highs return to the
lower 80s by late week, humidity levels will be fairly comfortable
for this time of year.

High pressure will keep the region for a good part of the next
several days. The main period of concern will be from Thursday night
into the weekend. A strong shortwave will swing through the Great
Lakes, bringing a frontal boundary into the forecast area by early
Friday. The GFS is somewhat wetter with its solution, while the
ECMWF keeps most of the precipitation threat closer to the Great
Lakes. Currently thinking that shower/storms should be more
scattered and will limit PoP`s to about 35-40% at best. More of a
discrepancy sets up into the weekend, as the frontal boundary south
of us becomes parallel to the upper flow. Both extended models show
some fairly widespread showers Saturday and Saturday night along the
front, extending as far north as central Illinois. However, by this
point, high pressure over the Great Lakes will result in a fairly
persistent east/northeast flow of drier air, so will keep
measurable PoP`s south of I-70 for now, with slight chances north
to about I-72.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Cold front now over northern Illinois will push through the
terminals this afternoon and evening. some scattered cumulus may
occur along and near the front. A second cold front currently over
the Upper Mississippi Valley will be accompanied by a
reinforcement of low-level moisture off lake Michigan as north
winds gain an easterly component in its wake. may bring some MVFR
clouds to KCMI late tonight. Light winds associated with the
frontal passages should mix boundary-layer sufficiently to keep
vsbys from dropping tonight.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barker
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barker



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