Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 262020
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
320 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT, RATHER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET AGAIN.  TODAYS MIXING
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS DROPPED THE DEWPOINTS A BIT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AS THE TEMPS APPROACH 35
DEGREES OR LESS IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER IN THE WEST THAN THE EAST WHERE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL EXISTS.  SO...THE HIGHER RH AIRMASS IS COLOCATED WITH
WIND THAT WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...AS LONG
AS THE WINDS HOLD OUT.  NO FOG MENTION FOR NOW...PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK PRODUCING A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY.

PATCHY MORNING FROST WILL START THE DAY FROM THE I-74 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD MONDAY MORNING...THEN POTENTIALLY AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM
FORMING.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT MOVING A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WHILE KEEPING PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL/SE
ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA...WHILE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES
BY WELL TO THE NORTH. MAIN IMPACT FOR CENTRAL IL SHOULD BE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS.

AS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS PAST CENTRAL IL OVER THE
WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOIST SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTERACTS
WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
VFR AND BREEZY NNE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF
CIGS AND DIURNAL MIXING TODAY ALREADY PLUMMETING THE DWPTS
CONSIDERABLY. WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE XOVER VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON, AS RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS TONIGHT
EFFICIENTLY. SO FAR, NOT LOOKING LIKE A GOOD FOG SET UP, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...HJS



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