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000
FXUS63 KIND 251817
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
217 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM...HUMID AND
STORMY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY BY LATE
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHERN
STATES AND ALLOWING FOR MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS EXPANDING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPS
WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S AT 14Z.

CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT. CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE
PROTECTION OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE...WITH
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING PWATS STILL BELOW 1 INCH AND AN ABUNDANCE OF
DRY AIR BELOW 15KFT. AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES AND THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WABASH VALLEY.
HOWEVER...CURRENT HRRR LOOKS FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE IN SPREADING
PRECIP INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE AMBIENT AIRMASS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY IMPACT...LIMITING SUNSHINE AND TEMP RISES A BIT MORE
THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. ANY PRECIP IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF IN FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
UNTIL EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE SHORT TERM WILL PROVIDE MANY CHALLENGES TO THE
FORECAST..NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY PM...ILLUSTRATED BY THE DAY2 SPC OUTLOOK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL FORCE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AND RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET SETTLES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA RESULTING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
2 INCHES THERE. IN ADDITION...UPPER JET WILL STRETCH OUT ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH EMBEDDED JET MAXIMA AIDING IN RAINFALL
EFFICIENCY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. SO...WITH ABUNDANT
FORCING...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...POTENTIAL SEVERE MCS ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS. IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER ENOUGH FROM
THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT STORMS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SIDED CLOSER TO THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THE
00Z GFS AND JUL 24 00Z ECM LOOK TOO WARM BY SATURDAY CONSIDERING
CLOUD COVER AND EFFECT OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT DRY AND COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING BUT STILL NOT GETTING BACK UP TO
NORMAL. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN COULD BRING IN SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH A WIDE SPREAD
IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THAT TIME WILL LEAVE THE ALLBLEND SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS ALONE.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CURRENTLY LOOKING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI
HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND CONTINUING TO HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. BASED
ON CURRENT MOTIONS AND LACK OF MOISTURE OVER INDIANA THINK THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE...BUT COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT
KHUF SOMETIME AROUND 20Z OR SO. DON/T THINK THIS WILL IMPACT
FLIGHT CATEGORY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER BUT WITH
VFR CEILINGS. AT KLAF MODELS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND KEPT THESE AS A VCTS FROM
8-14Z WITH STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT LOCATION
AND TIMING. EXPECT TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS OVER THE SITES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT AT THIS POINT THAT/S OUTSIDE OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 5-10 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
THINK THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

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