Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 091934
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
234 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WINTER WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD ON CENTRAL INDIANA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF ARCTIC BLASTS WILL
PROVIDE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS A COUPLE OF
TIMES DURING THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AROUND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 952 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 20S AND ARE
STILL PROGGED TO TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHERN INDIANA THAT SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE OTHER AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN ILLINOIS LOOK TO SLIDE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL GO LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING FAR NORTHEAST AND HIGH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING.
IN ADDITION...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROUGH
LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH. THIS TOO WILL HELP INCREASE SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.

SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATES GREATEST THREAT FOR INTENSE SQUALLS
WILL LIE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
SHOW THAT ODDS OF VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR LESS IS LOW.

QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AS WELL. EXPECTING...ON AVERAGE...AN INCH
OR LESS 12Z-24Z. THUS WITH THE LOW COVERAGE OF SQUALLS EXPECTED AND
THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS...HAVE DECIDED AGAINST GOING WITH AN ADVISORY
TODAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND VISIBILITY DOWN
TO AROUND 2 MILES THOUGH. IT IS FEBRUARY IN INDIANA AFTER ALL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE THREATS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW AROUND FEEL THAT MOS IS TOO HIGH WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. TRIMMED THEM A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOCUS REMAINS ON SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO USE A BLEND.

ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS INCREASE TONIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THUS RAISED
MODEL POPS AND WENT LIKELY FAR NORTHEAST...TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...TO LOW CHANCE FAR WEST.
CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO EXIT.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH AGAIN THE THREAT
OF SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE LOWERING OF POPS
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. HOWEVER KEPT CHANCE POPS
ALL DAY FAR NORTHEAST DUE TO THE LAKE SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH EARLY WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT
FEEL THAT ANY SNOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THEN.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO MID
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 231 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD STARTS WITH STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRY AND COLD PERIOD FOR CENTRAL INDIANA BUT MODERATION ALREADY
BEGINS SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE THE LAST FLIRT WITH NEAR ZERO
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WINTER AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE
NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A BIT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN HOW A TROUGH IN THE WEST TAKES SHAPE AND HEADS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE LOW AS LATEST EURO DEVELOPS
SEPARATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEMS WHILE GFS FEEDS MORE OF
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE INTO INDIANA. THUS GFS SUGGESTS SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE EURO KEEPS MORE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSENSUS SOLUTION WILL BE USED FOR NOW AND SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY
TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. ON THE HEELS OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WE
SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW THOUGH
GFS WARMS THINGS ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE AS SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAWING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND A CONSENSUS OF VALUES WILL BE USED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 091800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1156 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE WHILE VISIBILITY VARIES FROM 6+ MILES
IN FLURRIES DOWN TO 2 MILES DURING HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

STRONG CONFIDENCE THAT COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MVFR CLOUD DECKW YIELDING FAIRLY STEADY SNOW SHOWERS.
DIURNAL INFLUENCES WILL STRENGTHEN LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN SOME
SCATTERED AND HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET. FINAL MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING THAT WILL BRING
AN END TO MOST SNOW SHOWERS OR AT WORST LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING
FLURRIES. LOW CLOUD DECKS SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA AFTER
101500Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE EXITING TROUGH THE GUSTINESS OF THE WIND WILL END DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK


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