Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251421
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1021 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

A strong low pressure system centered over western Ohio will move
on to the east.  Weak ridge of high pressure will move east across
Indiana late tonight and early Friday.  After a brief dry period
more active weather will return late Friday through Sunday as
low pressure system moves into the great lakes followed by a cold
front which will move our way by Sunday.

In the long term another weak cold front will move our way late
Monday night and early Tuesday and high pressure over the northern
plains will build southeast towards Indiana towards the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /This afternoon/...

Issued at 1000 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

Surface analysis showslowo pressure over eastern Ohio. Cyclonic
flow was in place across Central Indiana. Radar show some
scattered wrap around showers over the eastern 1/2 of the forecast
area...with the bulk of the rain across southern Ohio.
Aloft...ridging and drying was building across Illinois and the
Mississippi valley...building eastward. Water vapor imagery showed
dryer air working into western parts of central Indiana. GOESR
visible imagery shows extensive cloud across Indiana...associated
with the low to the east.

HRRR suggests that the low along with its wrap around showers
will slowly advect to the east today...slowly exiting the area.
Given the dry air arriving from the west have trended pops to dry
there and will trend pops lower as the day progresses across the
east as the low departs. Given the expected clouds and minimal
advection...trended highs slightly cooler than MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Friday through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

A ridge of high pressure over Indiana early Friday will move
on to the east.  An area of low pressure over the central plains
will move towards northern Indiana.  Models also move an upper
disturbance our way late Friday bringing a chance of showers
and thunderstorms to most areas by late Friday.  Some models
such as the NAM and Canadian only bring this precipitation
to our far west by late Friday.

Friday night looks wet as the upper disturbance moves our way
and a surface low moves towards northern Indiana.  Went with
high chance POPS most areas...but I would not be surprised to
see likely POPS in later forecast.

Models indicate a lull in rain chances Saturday followed by
high POPS Saturday night as another upper disturbance and an
area of low pressure moves our way.  Will go with likely POPS
most areas Saturday night.  Some areas could see an inch of
rain as airmass will be quite moist.

Stayed close to a MOS blend on high temperatures from 75 to 80
Friday and upper 70s to lower 80s Saturday.   Lows will be 60 to
65 Friday night and middle 60s Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday Night/...

Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

An active weather pattern will prevail throughout the extended
period. First, showers and thunderstorms will persist into Sunday
as the result of a surface frontal boundary. After a bit of a lull
in activity on Sunday night, showers and thunderstorms will
commence once again by Monday afternoon as waves of energy rotate
around a broad upper low situated over Ontario. This system and
its periodic waves will be the source of showers and thunderstorms
at times through mid-week.  Meanwhile, temperatures will start
out above normal on Sunday with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s,
but they will trend closer to normal through the remainder of the
forecast period.  Overnight lows will generally be in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 251500Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 1015 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

IFR ceilings with areas of IFR visibility restricitions in light
rain and drizzle still fairly widespread across the area. Short
term model guidance suggest these conditions will probably linger
in the KIND vicinity until about 251700Z, with ceilings lifting
above IFR after that time. Will also hold onto the wind gusts
around 22 kts for a little later into the afternoon hours as
well.

Previous discussion follows.

MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities will linger through this
morning until a low pressure system over western Ohio pushes
farther east. At that point, there will be a return to VFR
conditions by mid afternoon, and they will remain there through
the end of the TAF period. Meanwhile, winds will generally be
northwesterly at 10 to 13 kts, gusting up to 18 kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JAS


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