Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 030905
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
505 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL INDIANA
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE
70S...AND LOW 80S BY SATURDAY. FURTHER OUT...A FRONT WILL MOVE
BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE RAIN
CHANCES AS DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.

A VERY BROAD WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS MORNING...BUT THEY
WILL BE LIGHT AT MOST. AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER TUE 18Z...COMPLETELY ENDING BY THIS EVENING.

TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER
SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WAS CAPTURED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...BUT
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
AFTER WED 06Z. SO POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. LIFT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS BETWEEN WED 12-18Z. AFTER
THAT...CHANCES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST. NONETHELESS...WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THU 00Z AS TRAILING UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO
ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S...GENERALLY STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGINS TO MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY TO BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  WILL
MENTION CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY ON...AS MODELS
DIG ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND THEN STALL IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING IT BACK NORTH AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
BUT THEY SEEMED A BIT TOO WARM OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS SUNDAY
AS THE EURO...GFS AND GEMNH HAVE TRENDED COOLER.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S FRIDAY...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 SATURDAY...70 TO 75 SUNDAY AND 70S
MONDAY. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALL 3 NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD REMAINS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AS A
LARGE...BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP
PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AS THE OVERALL PATTERN FAILS TO CHANGE. WITH COOLING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO FALL TO
LESS THAN 3F...IFR FOG AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SHORT
WAVE WILL ALLOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AND
PERHAPS EVEN VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AMID THE DIRTY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
BRING MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JP/JH



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