Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 280225
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1023 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A secondary but dry cold front will move across Indiana tonight and
cooler air will finally arrive by Tuesday.  It will be quite cool
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough digs into the great lakes
and St. Lawrence valley.  Dry weather will be the rule through
Thursday as high pressure over the upper midwest builds into the great
lakes.

A weak cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms by Friday into
the first half of next weekend.  Then dry and slightly warmer weather
will occur early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 956 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Isolated convection formed along an approaching cold front in
northeast Indiana earlier this evening. This convection just missed
the forecast area and is now in western Ohio. Doesn`t look like any
additional convection is developing with the front at the moment, and
the loss of heating will help stop anything from developing later.
Thus will continue with a dry forecast tonight.

Otherwise just tweaked sky grids to reflect the clouds from the
isolated convection and some high clouds south. Remainder of
forecast looks good.

Previous discussion follows...

Clear skies were the rule over northern and central sections this
afternoon...while a few clouds were occurring over far southern Indiana.
A secondary but dry cold front over the southern great lakes will move
south across our region tonight.

Tonight will be clear and cooler with some clouds spreading into northern
sections towards morning.  Went close to a MOS blend on temperatures with
lows in the lower 60s over northwest sections and the middle or upper 60s
central and south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Main focus will be temperatures as cool high pressure over the
upper midwest builds into the great lakes.  Models indicate 850 MB
temperatures will range from +9 over northern sections to about
+15 degrees south Tuesday. This is about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than what
they are today.

In addition models indicate partly cloudy conditions over north and
central sections as clouds behind the cold front moves in and an
upper trough digs into the eastern great lakes.  This will result in
highs Tuesday ranging from the middle 70s over northern sections to
lower and middle 70s south.  Clearing skies and good radiational cooling
will occur Tuesday night with lows in the 50s.

Models indicate mostly clear skies Wednesday as high pressure dominates
our weather followed by increasing clouds Thursday.  The NAM brings
precipitation chances to our far northwest late Thursday.  But this seems
too quick based on other models which keeps all precipitation father
northwest until late Thursday night.

850 MB temperatures will be around +10 celsius Wednesday...warming
to +13 to +15 celsius Thursday.  Raised highs a degree or two with lots of
sunshine Wednesday and some warm advection Thursday.   Anyways went with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday and lower 80s Thursday.
Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle to upper 50s which is near
a MOS blend.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Monday)...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The initialization from Region will be used with very high
confidence through Saturday, and slightly reduced confidence
thereafter.

Agreement between the GFS and the European model is good with a well
defined pattern that should be easy to forecast. This boosts
confidence, especially early on.

A front nears the area late in the weekend. So far in the future,
this inevitably makes the forecast more difficult and cuts
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 280300Z KIND TAF Update)...
Issued at 1023 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. Previous
discussion follows.

Appears crossover temperatures will get close to being reached during
the pre dawn hours of Tuesday, so areas of MVFR visibility restrictions
in light fog are possible after about 280900Z.

Otherwise, no significant cloud expected tonight. Surface wind 290-320
degrees at 6-9 kts early this evening will become light after dark.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JAS



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