Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 250827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS
AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VERY LIGHT ECHOES NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE ARE LIKELY
TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AND THUS WILL CARRY NO MENTION
OF THEM IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE SPRINKLES
MENTION ALREADY IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM SUCH WEAK ECHOES IS
VERY UNLIKELY BUT A FEW DROPS SHOULD FALL HERE AND THERE.

CLOUD COVER FROM THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...BUT CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST CONSENSUS BLEND
IS REASONABLE ON MAX TEMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN A FORECAST OF 70 TO
75 ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM...THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL HAVE TO CARRY AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST MOS BLEND OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IS BETTER ON MAX TEMPS WHILE AN OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS BETTER ON MINS. MAY SEE THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

0825Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE IN STRATUS
AND OR FOG OVERNIGHT AFTER 07Z AT LAF AND HUF AND 09Z AT IND AND
BMG. CIRRUS AND AC MAY KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING IFR OR WORSE.
WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
15Z IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD REACH DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM 12Z-18Z. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST
TO UP TO 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/KOCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.