Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 171039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
539 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 240 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

Surface high pressure will move east over the southern states late
this week. Gulf inflow around the high will allow for the cold
temperatures to climb to well above normal this weekend and into
next week. The southerly flow will also combine with lift from an
advancing frontal system and result in a rainy late weekend and
early next week.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 240 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

Main focus for today will be on clouds and temperatures as an upper
trough moves into the Smokies and surface high pressure slides into
northeastern Texas. Arkansas and northern Louisiana.

Model low level rh progs and rh time sections indicate the low
clouds will exit our southern counties by mid morning. Also, lake
plume should shift more into our northeastern counties before
existing this afternoon as boundary layer winds shift to westerly.
After that, should see some mid and high clouds during the afternoon
in the northwest flow aloft. All this points to a general partly
cloudy sky with temperatures still cold, but more than 10 degrees
higher than yesterday.

Temperatures will start off around 1 to 5 degrees at daybreak and
top out near 20 degrees. Meanwhile, wind chills will start off 2 to
10 degrees below and max out at 10 to 15 degrees above.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday night/...
Issued at 240 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

Good confidence as high pressure moves to the southeastern states,
southwest low level flow will allow for dry weather with an upswing
in temperatures. In addition, model layered rh progs and rh time
sections suggest clearing from west to east tonight and little cloud
cover the rest of the period.

Model thermals and limited cloud cover suggest a near 10 degree jump
in temperatures each day through Friday and temperatures at or above
the blend. Highs on Friday will become near normal to slightly
above, at least in the middle and upper 30s. Would not rule out 40
degrees at some locales.


.LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Wed Jan 17 2018

Ensembles in good agreement during this period. An upper trough is
expected to move through the area around Sunday or Monday. An
associated surface low pressure system is progged to pass through
the Great Lakes.

Will keep PoPs in the forecast from Saturday through Monday to cover
the passage of this feature. The dominate precipitation type during
this event looks to be rain, with a small potential for light mixed
precipitation at the tail end of the event Monday. Accumulations
appear unlikely at this point.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 171200Z TAFS/...
Issued at 539 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

Lingering ceiling around 010 currently dropping south through the
area should be south of the KBMG terminal by issuance time.

Otherwise, residual moisture off of Lake Michigan may result in
some cloud cover around 040, especially this morning at the more
eastern terminals.

Surface winds 260-290 degrees at 4-7 kts early this morning will
become 250-270 degrees at 8-11 kts this afternoon.




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