Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 172230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 610 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW...BUT
LACK OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NO RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 610 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

HAD TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND 20Z RAPID
REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LATEST IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER
OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
KANSAS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT. CANNOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME AFTER A DAY OF DRY
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT/S LOWS ARE PROGGED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. MODELS ARE
HANDLING THE BENIGN PATTERN WELL...SO WENT WITH A BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE ADVANCEMENT OF COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL NOT START FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN
AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY POPS INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND
EASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BUMP
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 80S AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR. MODELS WERE IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO WITH A
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY COOL WEATHER.

MODEL CONSENSUS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A SURFACE WAVE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE NOW A BIT FASTER WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS IN
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING BUT IF FASTER TRENDS HOLD...MOST
IF NOT ALL PRECIP MAY BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY
EVENING.

AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A WESTERN RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WILL KEEP HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH
CHILLY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE AT SOME OUTLIER SITES
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL KEEP MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT ANY SHRA SHOULD BE OUT OF THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN
SITES BY VALID TIME.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THUS
EXPECT FOG ONCE AGAIN AT MOST SITES...BUT WITH SOME DRYING DURING
THE DAY DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS AS BAD AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

NORTHEAST WIND OFF OF THE CITY SHOULD KEEP KIND VFR / OR PERHAPS
HIGH END MVFR/. OTHERWISE MVFR OR WORSE EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE
VISIBILITY DUE TO GROUND FOG AT OTHER SITES.

FOG BURNS OFF EARLY LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD/MK
NEAR TERM...TDUD/MK
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...50

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