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000
FXUS63 KIND 271909
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
309 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

A surface low pressure trough and cold front near the I-70
corridor this afternoon will be settling south to the Ohio River
early Friday as high pressure builds southeast into the Great
Lakes. This will result in the precipitation shifting south of our
area by mid day Friday.

A combination of surface and upper ridging of high pressure will
then control the weather for our area with mostly clear skies
starting Friday night, and remaining dry until at least next
Thursday.

Model blend temperatures appear reasonable and were used showing a
trend to below normal temperatures starting Friday, slowly
moderating back to normal middle 80 highs by mid week next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Some breaks in the clouds this afternoon have helped to develop
some narrow bands of showers and a few thunderstorms. These will
show slight further development as they track east southeast this
evening. Will continue at least a low chance for showers/thunder
through the night as the surface boundary settles slowly south.

A gradual fill-in of the cloud deck should occur tonight as
cooler temperatures on north winds overtake the area. With
humidity remaining high and winds becoming light, patchy fog can
be expected in some areas as well. Minimum temperatures a few
degrees either side of 70 appear reasonable, possibly reaching mid
60s near Kokomo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...

Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

A fairly sharp upper trough will drop southeast across the Great
Lakes Friday and with it, a low threat for showers or thunder
continuing in our far east and southeast counties at least through
the morning hours Friday. Thereafter, subsidence begins to take
over and solid cloud cover begins to scatter then clear by late
Friday.

Continued drying as the high pressure builds further southeast
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will result in clear skies
Friday night into Sunday. Dewpoints will be falling from mid 60s
Friday afternoon well down into the 50s for the weekend.

Temperature guidance from the models was fairly similar and was
followed, with weekend lows dipping into the 50s along with
daytime highs from the upper 70s Saturday to around 80 Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...

Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Models are in good agreement on the upper pattern through much of
the long term. Have high confidence in dry weather Sunday night
through Wednesday before the pattern changes enough to allow the
next frontal system to approach. Medium confidence that high
pressure slides off to the east and allows a cold front to
approach and bring a return to at least small chances for
thunderstorms to end the week, but low confidence that this
happens before Friday. Stuck with the blended initialization low
pops for Thursday at this time. Temperatures appear to be near
normal through the period with highs in the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 271800z TAFs/...

Issued at 1253 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Occasional MVFR ceilings and visibility during scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms into early evening. With residual
atmospheric moisture, wet ground and light wind, widespread MVFR
conditions will develop around 280600z with areas of IFR ceilings.
Ceilings will lift after 281400z to VFR as drier air moves in.

Low pressure trough aligned east-west across central Indiana and
Illinois this afternoon will slowly settle south tonight and into
the Ohio Valley early Friday.

winds WSW south of the trough will veer to NNE after trough
passage but generally remain at or below 10 knots.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Tucek
NEAR TERM...Tucek
SHORT TERM...Tucek
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...Tucek