Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 270206
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1005 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

High pressure will build into the area for tonight into Tuesday.
An upper level low may affect the area later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Cloud cover should continue to thin out during the rest of the
afternoon as drier air moves into the area, leaving skies mainly
clear by tonight as surface ridging noses into the Ohio Valley.

Low level thicknesses generally support the GFS MOS guidance lows
tonight, so any adjustments will be minor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Model data suggest upper low currently north of Lake Superior
will drift south into the local area by Wednesday, and eventually
into the Appalachian Mountain region by Thursday.

Appears the core of the mid level cold pocket will be passing
over the local area on Wednesday, with mid level temperatures
moderating a bit after that as the upper low drifts east. At this
point, the highest precipitation potential looks to be on
Wednesday as the upper level cold pocket drifts overhead, with
precipitation chances diminishing after that.

Will go with chance PoPs for showers most areas on Wednesday, and
a bit lower PoPs Wednesday night into Thursday. The Pops
Wednesday night and Thursday will be more focused on the eastern
zones, which will be closest to mid level cold pocket.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for
Wednesday may be on the cool side. Will nudge the guidance
numbers up a category in that period. Remainder of the periods
look OK for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...

Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Light Showery weather will be possible on thursday night through Saturday
night as the ECMWF continues to suggest an upper low lingering
across the Ohio valley during early in the period. Confidence is
grown for light precip as the GFS appears to have come around also
to this solution.

ECMWF suggests a weak ridge will poke the low to the north-
northeast on Sunday and Monday...which should allow us to drop any
precip chances then. Otherwise...temps are expected to be at or
below normal as long as the low and pesky light showers may be
hanging around late this work week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 270300z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1005 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Updated current conditions only. Previous discussion follows...

Very dry air over all the sites will keep VFR conditions in place
through the period. Should see some wind gusts Tuesday afternoon
around 20-25 kts out of the southwest, starting around 17-18z and
ending around 23z.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...CP


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