Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 030221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES. ISOLATED CONVECTION
DIMINISHED SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS EXPECTED WITH STABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT. DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S.
CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE EAST INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN GO DRY THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT PER
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM
AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MORE OF THE SAME IS THE NAME OF THE GAME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CANNOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 20 OR 30
POP IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNFICANT UPPER SUPPORT AND ANY SORT OF
SURFACE REFLECTION.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE
PERSISTENCE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR HIGHS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE A BIT
TOO COOL BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION AND WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
MINS APPEARED A BIT TOO WARM AND WERE PERHAPS A RESULT OF MODELS
ANTICIPATING MORE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP OVERNIGHTS THAN WHAT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE INTIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE ACCEPTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS SHARPLY LATER.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM ALL MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUPPORT THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT A ZONAL FLOW REPLACES RIDGING ALOFT AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY TRIES TO MOVE IN.

AT THAT POINT SURFACE PRESSURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
SHOW A MAXIMUM OVER INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CANT AGREE WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE WITH
RESPECT TO INDIANA. UNTIL WE ARE SURE OF THAT WE CANT BE SURE OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PPREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE REMAINING DIURNAL CU BURNS OFF AFTER SUNSET. AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER WISCONSIN WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR VICINITY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO KLAF NEARING THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND A SIMILAR AIR MASS AS THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES AS EARLY AS
08Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF FOG.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MMB/MK


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