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000
FXUS63 KIND 090813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
413 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014

ANOTHER WARMUP IS IN STORE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ON TAP.

THEN...A PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO
CENTRAL INDIANA MIDWEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...MORE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014

MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON MORNING STRATOCU AND OR PATCHY FOG WITH
THE CONCENTRATION THIS AFTERNOON ON TEMPERATURES.

THE RUC13 925 MILLIBAR RH PROGS SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRATOCU DECK...CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS. IT SUGGESTS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS DECK WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...SO LEFT SOME SKY COVER IN THERE THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH LITTLE ELSEWHERE UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING THEIR DEW POINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THE STRATOCU AND OR FOG WILL HANG AROUND LONGER THAN THAT
WITH HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 925 MILLIBARS. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG ARE
GONE...THERE SHOULD BE SUNNY SKIES WITH MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOWING
A DRY COLUMN AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...PREFER THE WARMER 00Z GFS MOS WHICH IS CLOSE
TO 00Z CONSALL. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S WHICH IS JUST
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014

TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SHORT TERM SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO CONFIDENCE IS GOOD REGARDING A BLEND.

MODELS KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BUFKIT SUGGESTS MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
GULF CREATING A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A FRONT SHOULD THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE. WITH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN OVERRUNNING REALLY RAMPS UP AND ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS
FROM THE TOP DOWN AS THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
KENTUCKY.

MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND OBS ARE IMPLYING
QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS AND POSSIBLY AC WILL BE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM. THUS...PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF
WHICH HAS MORE SKY COVER THAN ANY BLEND. DESPITE THIS...PREFER
TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER 00Z GFS ONCE AGAIN AS IT HAS BEEN DOING
BETTER WITH THE RECENT WARMER DAYS. ESPECIALLY PREFER THE WARMER
GFS ON MONDAY WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WE SHOULD SEE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...THERE IS STILL A DECENT
DISCREPANCY IN HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN...WITH THE GFS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING IT IN. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE
GENERALLY TRIED TO GO WITH ONLY ONE PRECIP TYPE IF BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN AGREEMENT AND A MIX IF THEY DIDN/T. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES LOOK LIKE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE WILL ARRIVE BEFORE OR
CONCURRENT WITH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE SO NO EXPECTATION OF
ANYTHING BESIDES RAIN OR SNOW. THUS STARTED OUT ALL RAIN EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH AFTER 6Z...WITH
RAIN OR SNOW COMING SOUTH TO AROUND I-70...AND RAIN SOUTH OF THERE.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALL SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70 WITH A MIX
SOUTH AND ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ITS WAKE. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH. WITH THE GROUND RELATIVELY WARM BEFORE THIS
STARTS FROM HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THINK IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH AND REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 090900Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SAT MAR 8 2014

WITH THE UPDATE WILL BE ADDING AT LEAST SOME MVFR FOG CURRENTLY TO
KLAF AND TO KHUF WITHIN AN HOUR TO ADDRESS CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WITH THOSE SITES TRENDING THAT WAY WILL ALSO ADD SOME TO KBMG AND
KIND BUT A BIT A LATER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF
SITES...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF CEILINGS AROUND 030 IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS. TRAJECTORY OF CLOUD DECK AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA SUGGEST THESE CEILINGS MAY GRAZE THE KHUF TERMINAL AT
TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 091000Z.

SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DIMINISH. LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA...SO WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO 220-240 DEGREES AT 8-10
KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP

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