Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 211919
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
319 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Unseasonably hot and dry weather will continue through next
Wednesday as upper level ridging continues across the state.  A cold
front on Wednesday will bring a chance for rain followed by cooler
and more seasonable weather going into the weekend.


&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 316 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

The big question for the night will be the extent and severity of
fog.  The combination of clear skies, high pressure, and weak winds
should lead to another morning of patchy fog similar to Wednesday
and today.  Fog will likely begin developing by 8Z and burn off
shortly after sunrise with the best chances across eastern and
southern Indiana.  Lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.



&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...

Issued at 316 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Unseasonably hot weather will continue through the period with highs
in the upper 80s and lower 90s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.
Went a degree or two above model initialization based on recent low
bias in high temps.  There is high confidence for dry weather
through the period with strong upper level ridging in place.


&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

An upper ridge will continue its influence across the area through
the first half of the long term, then an upper trough will build
into the area.

The result will be the continuation of above normal (or even well
above normal) temperatures through Wednesday, then readings will
cool to near or below normal.

A cold front will bring the cold air to the area mid week next week,
but models differ a bit on timing. Thus confidence is lower on PoPs
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 211800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1249 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Brief restrictions possible in fog near daybreak Friday...
otherwise VFR conditions expected.

Strong ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will
maintain dry conditions through the forecast period with limited
cloud cover. Cu this afternoon is most pronounced southeast of the
terminals nearest to the back side of a low level thermal trough
centered over eastern Kentucky. Cannot entirely rule out a few cu
at all but KLAF through the afternoon but no impact is expected.

Rest of the period will see periodic cirrus drift through the
region. Could again see brief visibility restrictions in localized
fog at the outlying terminals in the predawn hours through
daybreak. Generally expect a light southerly flow through Friday
afternoon.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...White/Ryan
NEAR TERM...White/Ryan
SHORT TERM...White/Ryan
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...Ryan



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