Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 222026
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
226 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday: Latest rap and satellite analysis showed
the upper trough moving into the Mississippi Valley from the Plains.
The cold front was tracking across our eastern counties with the
rain east of the forecast area. Readings across the region were in
the 60s.

For the period expect quiet conditions as the upper trough axis
exits to the east as we get into a zonal flow pattern on Tuesday.
Surface high pressure will build in from the Southern Plains.

As far as temperatures are concerned in the wake of the front
under clear skies we will dip back down into the 30s for tonight
with highs in the 50s on Tuesday./17/

Tuesday night through Sunday:
Zonal mid level flow pattern through much of the week will give
way to ridging from the west by Thursday. This should keep
temperatures relatively cool through a good portion of the week
with a gradual warming trend ensuing by late week. Meanwhile,
another storm system will begin strengthening over the
Intermountain West.

The models differ from this point forward. While the GFS/Canadian
have backed off on the strength of this sytem as it pulls into the
Plains Friday, the ECMWF still maintains better amplification and
thus better forcing as its attendant cold front moves into the area
Saturday. At the moment will lean toward the more consistent
amplified ECMWF. Despite the differences in the models, a strong
signal still exists in all model solutions in that a large
convective area will develop along the LA/MS Gulf Coast. This
continues to manifest itself further north in our forecast area with
run to run lessening with overall QPF. This is understandable in the
less amplified GFS/Canadian, but the better forced ECMWF is also
showing this. Will have to watch this trend in later cycles and
possibly back off on POPs/QPF if the trend continues./26/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Late this morning MVFR and VFR ceilings were clearing from the
west to east as the last of the showers were moving toward
Alabama. Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Winds will
be out of the south initially, switching to the southwest and then
west. Speeds will be around 10kts with some gusts to near 20kts
possible. For tonight into Tuesday morning winds will be from the
west at 5 to 10 knots./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       39  56  33  56 /   3   0   2   2
Meridian      40  56  31  57 /   7   0   2   2
Vicksburg     37  57  32  56 /   2   0   2   2
Hattiesburg   40  60  35  58 /   4   0   2   1
Natchez       39  58  32  56 /   2   0   2   2
Greenville    36  54  32  53 /   2   0   2   1
Greenwood     37  53  30  53 /   3   0   2   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$



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