Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 222350

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
650 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Updated for 00Z aviation discussion


00Z TAF discussion:
A mix of VFR to IFR ceilings are occurring this evening as a large
swath of rain is ongoing over many TAF sites. This will continue
to reduce vis and ceilings through the rest of the evening. Some
heavier showers or storms could occur through the night. Overall,
not good flying conditions through daybreak. Conditions should
improve after 17Z Tuesday. /28/


.DISCUSSION...Tonight and Tuesday: Rain has been slow to advance
east today, but saturated lower levels now are ensuring much more
reaching the ground. Surface low over southeast TX remains
responsible for the widespread isentropic ascent and should
continue tonight as the low moves along the baroclinic zone along
the coast. Have some concern that the low may shift a bit to the
north as better baroclinicity actually exits from west central LA
into southwest MS. If this occurs, heavier rainfall could develop
further north than expected right now. As of now, expect around 2
inches in the far south with locally higher amounts.

Most of the heavy rainfall will depart into AL by 12Z Tuesday, but
digging mid level trough and at least a few breaks in the cloud
cover should be sufficient for scattered thunderstorms in the
afternoon. The best lapse rates will occur in the east during the
afternoon and with around 40 knots of deep layer shear, would not be
surprised to see some isolated severe storms here./26/

Tuesday night through Sunday...our winds aloft will remain out of
the southwest as a closed low drops south from the Upper to Mid-
Mississippi River Valley by Wednesday morning. A shortwave rounding
the base of the closed low will swing east across our CWA and help
support a weak cold front and another good chance of showers and
storms Tuesday night into Wednesday. Cooler and drier air will
filter into the CWA in the wake of the cold front but the closed low
will continue to drop southeast across northeast Mississippi and
maintain light rain chances over the northeast half of our CWA
during the day Wednesday. By Wednesday evening, dry weather is
expected and the skies will clear from the southwest. With mostly
clear skies and a drier airmass over the area, the coolest morning
lows of the forecast period are expected Thursday. Most sites will
bottom out in the lower 50s. Thursday and Friday will be dry with a
warming trend. Low amplitude ridging aloft will move over our CWA
while a surface high strengthens over the northwest Gulf and
ridges back to the west across the Gulf coast states. The
resulting southerly flow will slowly increase moisture back across
our area. Saturday mid level ridging will strengthen over the
Gulf and may limit convection across our southern zones but
elsewhere deep enough moisture will be back across our CWA to
combine with daytime heating to result in isolated to scattered
afternoon and early evening storms. Models differ on timing but
another closed low near the upper Plains and Canadian border will
deepen a trough over the central CONUS Sunday into Monday. This
will lead to increasing rain chances Sunday into Monday. /22/


Jackson       64  79  58  73 /  98  48  60  17
Meridian      64  80  60  74 /  98  64  58  32
Vicksburg     60  80  58  75 /  93  37  62  13
Hattiesburg   66  82  63  77 /  96  68  57  22
Natchez       63  79  58  74 /  90  34  62  10
Greenville    58  78  57  73 /  87  34  61  18
Greenwood     61  78  57  71 /  98  42  61  25


MS...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MSZ052-054>066-

LA...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ024-026.




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