Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 280409
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1109 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 28/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE NORTH.
MEANWHILE...AN OVERALL DRY AIR MASS WILL HANG AROUND.
THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRES CNTRD OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO RIDGE SW
ACRS THE MS VALLEY TOWARD TX. THIS IS MAINTAINING DRY AND RATHER
PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH LT NLY WINDS IN PLACE. STLT
IMAGES EARLIER INDICATED A SWATH OF CIRRUS STREAMING SOUTH OVER
TX/WRN LA WITH A DIMINISHING TREND NOTED THE PAST FEW HOURS. WENT
AHEAD AND ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS BUT THIS DID
NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SKY CONDITION WORDING IN
ZONES. ELSEWHERE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS TO REFLECT RECENT SFC OBS. CURRENT
ZONE PKG REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED THIS
EVENING. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...RADAR REMAINS CLEAR OF ANY PRECIP WHILE SATELLITE
SHOWING NO MORE THAN A FEW CU ABOUT THE REGION. ANOTHER VERY
PLEASANT DAY ONGOING WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH AN EXTREMELY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE. MORNING LCH SOUNDING SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER AT A MEAGER
0.81 INCHES. LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN
ABSENT OF ANY CONVECTION AS THE AREA REMAINS WITHIN THIS DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW WITHIN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BETWEEN SOUTHWEST
CONUS HIGH AND EAST COAST TROFFING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS ASSOCIATED RIDGING OVER THE AREA SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. HENCE DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE NEW WEEK AS SOUTHWEST CONUS HIGH
RETROGRADES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND PHASES WITH ONGOING EASTERN TROFFING. MODELS SUGGESTING RESULT
WILL BE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROF FROM THE NORTHEAST
CONUS...THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN EXTENDING INTO
THE WESTERN GULF. THIS AS ERIKA ADVANCES NORTHWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SEABOARD. THUS SEEING MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE...CLOUDS
AND RAIN CHANCE RETURNING AND HUMIDITY LEVELS EDGING BACK INTO THE
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE. MODELS FURTHER TRANSITION AFOREMENTIONED TROF
INTO AN ANTICYCLONE BY MID WEEK OVER EAST TEXAS. SHOULD SOLUTION
OCCUR...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK MIGHT VERY WELL BE A WET ONE.
AT THIS TIME NOT PLAYING UP THE POP NUMBERS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
ERIKAS STRENGTH AND TRACK WILL IMPACT UPCOMING MODEL FORECASTS.

MARINE...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  61  93  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  65  92  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  65  92  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  67  92  70  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07



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