000
FXUS64 KLCH 191555
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1055 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Zones were updated earlier to Dense Fog Advisory
expiration/removal of headlines based on sfc observations at 14z.
Elsewhere POPs were nudged up over the wrn zones based on radar
trends/latest high-res guidance.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 624 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
12Z Taf issuance.

AVIATION...
Intermittent LIFR vis/ceilings (dense fog) for BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA through
13-14z, after which the fog expected to lift/burn off. For AEX IFR
vis/ceilings during same time period. South winds 8-10 kts with
VCSH for all sites expected by the afternoon hours, diminishing by
sunset.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery depicting some scattered cirrus
advancing east across the area on a zonal flow aloft. Surface
observations showing seasonably warm temperatures ongoing with
light fog common at most sites. Will again be monitoring for the
need of a dense fog advisory as the morning progresses.

Surface analysis showing weak high pressure holding across the
area. Flow remains southerly in the lower levels maintaining
steady influx of gulf moisture and feeding the ongoing fog
development. Aloft, flow transitioning to zonal as shortwave
energy advances across the upper midwest breaking down ridging
across the area. Pattern to remain similar through mid-week with
rain chances primarily limited to low end chances of afternoon
convection during max heating.

Shortwave will advance across the region Thursday with little
fanfare and phase with the aforementioned shortwave now over the
upper midwest. Features will evolve into an extended shear axis
from the central gulf waters extending northeast through the mid-
atlantic states. This will place the forecast area under a drier
northeast flow in the mid and upper levels, and should see at
least a minor lowering of surface dewpoints and temperatures as
the surface flow trends more easterly. Will continue to carry
chance pops through this time-frame as sufficient low level
moisture will remain in place.

MARINE...Weak high pressure will continue to hold over the
northwest gulf yielding light winds and low seas. Flow will
remain onshore through mid-week, trending more easterly going into
the weekend. Any shower or thunderstorm activity will remain
limited.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  72  90  71 /  20  10  30  10
LCH  89  76  88  74 /  20  20  20  10
LFT  90  74  90  73 /  30  10  20  10
BPT  88  76  87  75 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04