000
FXUS64 KLCH 060955
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
355 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS/88D IMAGERY SHOWS THE FRONT RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KBTR
THROUGH KLFT AND KIYA TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON.
LOCAL 88DS SHOW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG
THE FRONT AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN
ZONES. FURTHER NORTH...REGIONAL 88DS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN...SPREADING ACROSS NRN TX
INTO THE ARKLATEX.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS
MORNING. 00Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE PRECIP SHIELD TO OUR NW WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY...MOST AFFECTING THE NRN
ZONES WHERE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY DISPLAYED. MEANWHILE
ADDITIONAL OVERRUNNING-TYPE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY GETS A
SHOVE FROM FROM THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE TX BIG BEND REGION
AND FINALLY DEPARTS THE SERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING. AS COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BASICALLY HOLD
IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES.

STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY WEATHER LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHALLOW SUBFREEZING LAYER NEAR THE
SFC. STILL NOT SEEING THE NEED TO EXPAND THIS AREA OF FREEZING
PRECIP SWD THOUGH AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS
STAYING ABOVE 32F FOR NOW.

A FAIRLY MESSY WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
OVERRUNNING PATTERN LINGERS AND GETS AIDED BY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE WRN GULF. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE
CNTL CONUS AND DRY AIR TAKES OVER THROUGH THE COLUMN. THE CANADIAN
AIRMASS PROGGED TO SLIP SWD ACROSS THE WRN/CNTL CONUS WILL
MAINTAIN COOL TEMPS THROUGH MID-WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN VERY
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
REGION AND WORKS IN CONCERT WITH PROGGED COASTAL TROF DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR VERMILION BAY/NEAR SHORE
WATERS EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO 15Z AS VERY LOW VISIBILITIES
WILL REMAIN A THREAT UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THIS AREA. ALSO ADDED
CAUTION HEADLINES TO SABINE/CALCASIEU LAKES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS
NRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE.
OTHERWISE SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE COASTAL WATERS AS STRONG OFFSHORE
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  36  43  35  49 /  60  30  50  40  50
KBPT  48  36  44  35  46 /  60  30  50  40  50
KAEX  44  32  41  34  43 /  70  30  50  50  60
KLFT  60  36  44  38  54 /  70  30  50  40  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU
     LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION
     BAY.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

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