Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 210240
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
940 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Wx map continues to show high pressure at the surface over the S
and SE U.S. with high pressure aloft dominating most of the middle
of the country. Locally, limited afternoon SHRA/TSRA has
dissipated, with precip chances 10% or less for the remainder of
the evening. After midnight, 20% across the coastal waters and
coastal parishes/counties will continue from nocturnal development
offshore.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 703 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/

AVIATION...Mostly vfr conditions are expected through the period,
however isolated showers will be possible for the next few hours
followed by isolated to scattered storms tomorrow afternoon. A
brief period of mvfr or ifr conditions will be possible with any
shower or storm. Winds will become light and vrb overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...Lower moisture availability across the forecast area
has limited shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Morning LCH sounding had precipitable water at 1.72 inches, down
from 2.17 inches 24 hours prior. Radar showing just a few showers
along struggling sea breeze over coastal southwest Louisiana and
southeast Texas. Do see a few showers trying to develop over east-
central Louisiana, with more robust convection advancing
southwest out of west Mississippi. This latter activity associated
with disturbances rotating about the periphery of south plains
anticyclone.

Extent of drier air aloft suggested by models to overlay the
region through the remainder of the week appears to be
diminishing. Will be maintaining a daily chance of mainly
afternoon and showers and thunderstorms as seabreeze again becomes
active, along with the occasional ripple coming through the east
to northeast flow aloft. Temperatures will continue to trend
several degrees above the norm, but looks as if heat advisory
criteria will not be met.

MARINE...Light east to southeast winds will prevail over the near
coastal waters. This as high pressure remains ridging across the
southeast CONUS and adjacent gulf waters. A daily chance of
showers and thunderstorms will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  96  77  95 /  10  20  10  30
LCH  78  93  78  93 /  10  30  10  20
LFT  77  94  76  93 /  10  40  10  30
BPT  77  94  78  93 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08


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