Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
570 FXUS64 KLCH 070450 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1150 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -An upper low aloft will support increased rain chances through Tuesday and Wednesday before diminishing. -This feature will be replaced by strong ridging out west and weak ridging to our east. -Gradually decreasing PoPs and increasing heat & humidity are expected later in the period. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Convection has already initiated late this morning along the sea breeze, particularly near the immediate coastline. Diurnal heating combined with this boundary will promote continued development of showers and isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon, especially across areas along and south of I-10 and the eastern third of the forecast area thanks to an approaching upper low. The aforementioned upper low is currently retrograding over the northern Gulf, and is forecast to meander near or over the CWA through much of the short term. This will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. The greatest coverage today is expected across Acadiana and the Atchafalaya Basin, where the proximity to the upper low maximizes lift and moisture convergence. As such, WPC has highlighted this area under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall capable of producing localized flash flooding. High temperatures will generally remain in the lower to mid 90s, tempered somewhat by cloud cover and precip. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s, with slightly higher values near the coast. Apparent temperatures are expected to remain below Heat Advisory criteria, though precautions should still be taken for those exposed to prolonged periods outdoors and heat sensitive populations. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 By midweek, the upper low is expected to weaken as ridging begins to build from both the Desert SW and the Atlantic / East Coast. The ridge to the west will be more pronounced, with our region sitting in between these two features. As heights increase, expect a warming and drying trend, particularly across western portions of the forecast area. Diurnally driven convection will persist through the week, but coverage will likely become more limited, favoring eastern areas where ridging influence is weaker. With reduced rain chances and cloud cover, temperatures will gradually climb, leading to higher afternoon heat indices. These may approach or exceed advisory thresholds late in the period. Even if official criteria are not met, heat related impacts remain a concern, and all are encouraged to continue practicing heat safety. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Light winds and high clouds will largely prevail through the forecast period. A bit of patchy fog will be possible at AEX as we approach sunrise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again develop through the midday and expand in coverage through the afternoon. These storms may occasionally pass over the terminals reducing VIS and bringing gusty winds. Away from convection VFR conditions continue. && .MARINE... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 The chance for scattered afternoon convection begins to increase slightly as an upper low moves overhead. Rain chances then decrease some through the midweek as the upper low weakens and dissipates, with typical summertime convection expected each day. Winds and seas will remain weak / low through the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Rain chances will increase today through Tuesday as an upper low moves overhead and stalls. Daily minimum RH values in the 45 to 65 percent range can be expected through the work week. With little forcing, winds will also remain fairly light and out of the south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 95 72 94 72 / 20 20 40 10 LCH 93 76 91 76 / 30 10 60 20 LFT 93 75 91 74 / 50 30 60 10 BPT 93 75 91 75 / 20 10 50 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...17