Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 152224
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
424 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MO AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH THE TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR A KMLU TO KJAS LINE. FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SE
TONIGHT...CLEARING THE FAR SE MARINE ZONE BY PRE-DAWN TUESDAY.
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N/W.

A CLEAR SKY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUE/TUE
NIGHT AS FLAT UPPER RIDING SLIDES OVERHEAD...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE WED AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY...AND A
LEAD IMPULSE EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER UPSTREAM WRN CONUS TROF. BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING
COASTAL TROF SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...INITIALLY OVER EAST TEXAS THEN EXPANDING FARTHER EAST
INTO LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THU AS THE COASTAL
TROF LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF A SFC LOW ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH THERE CONTINUE TO BE TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES.
CONTINUED WITH A BLENDED APPROACH...MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS THU
NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH RAIN ENDING FRI EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW EXIT TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY
ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

13

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A BRIEF BOUT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNING WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER AND NORTH WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  49  64  41  61 /  20  10   0  10
KBPT  49  65  42  61 /  10  10   0  10
KAEX  44  59  37  58 /  10  10   0  10
KLFT  50  64  40  62 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...04




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