Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 282101
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
401 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACHED INTO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND LAFAYETTE. A BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS OF LOWER ST MARTIN...IBERIA...AND ST MARY PARISHES.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS DIURNALLY HEAT DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

A WARM TONIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
RISE ON THE BACK OF SOUTHERLY RICH GULF MOISTURE. JUST LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES...SO WILL THE NIGHT GO HAND
IN HAND...ABNORMALLY WARM PERHAPS 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN USUAL
MORNING LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

WELL...LET US STAY FOCUSED ON THE BIGGER PICTURE...A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES IS ON THE MOVE AND
HEADED TO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PUMP UP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS
EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN MAY GET INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. QPF FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DO NOT SUPPORT FFA ACROSS OUR AREA
YET. THE DAYS 1 THROUGH 3 FORECAST QPF WILL NEED TO COME UP A
COUPLE OF MORE INCHES IN QPF TOTALS TO INITIATE THE FFA. FOR
NOW...WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT CREW GET A BETTER LOOK AT UPDATED QPF
TOTALS TO SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN MAY LAYUP. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY
GENERATE SQUALL LINE OF CONVECTION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER BY LISTENING TO YOUR LOCAL TV
NEWS ONLINE WEATHER...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR CELL PHONE WEATHER
APPS.

A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL INTO
THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY AND THEREFORE OVERRUNNING OF RAIN
MAKES FOR A UNSTABLE WET PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. WE FINALLY GET A
BREAK IN THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...BUSY WEEKEND OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER...THEN THE WET PATTERN LINGERS INTO TUESDAY
AFTER THE MONDAY COOL FRONT STALLS IN THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS
WITH  KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND DREARY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE COOL FRONT WILL STALL ALLOWING FOR OVERRUNNING OF RAIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE FIVE DAY FORECAST ENDING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  86  70  81 /  10  20  50  60
LCH  73  83  72  79 /  10  20  50  60
LFT  73  85  73  81 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  74  83  72  80 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH
     SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...06


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