Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 201046
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
546 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.AVIATION...PATCHY THIN FOG IS OCCURRING AROUND AND AT SOME
TERMINALS THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AROUND AN
HOUR AFTER SUNRISE AS MIXING OCCURS. BY MID DAY ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED, HOWEVER MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10. VCSH OR VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DIMINISH. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS WILL BECOME SW AT NEAR 10KTS DURING
THE MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH NEAREST CONVECTION A
SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING AREA OF TSTMS NEAR THE RED RIVER OF NE
TX. FLAT AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING RESIDES OVERHEAD...WITH A LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING WWD FROM THE WRN ATLANTIC INTO THE N
CENTRAL GULF CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

TWO POSSIBILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ARE EVIDENT IN LATEST
GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...WITH THE FIRST BEING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...DRIVEN
PRIMARILY BY DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND THE SEA BREEZE. THE SECOND
IS DEPICTED IN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WHICH EITHER BRING THE
CONVECTION OVER NE TX SOUTH INTO THE AREA...OR GENERATE NEW
CONVECTION ALONG RESULTING SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOWS.
GIVEN THE RECENT SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT NOTED IN RADAR IMAGERY...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO DISCOUNT THIS LATTER SCENARIO. THUS...HIGHEST POPS
TODAY WERE CARRIED OVER THE EAST TEXAS LAKES...TAPERING DOWN TO
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST.

A WEAK CDFNT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TOMORROW...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD OR SO OF
THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT TO THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROF ENTERS THE WRN CONUS. THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING WILL BE AT ITS PEAK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...GIVING WAY TO THE APPROACHING TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
REGION FALLS UNDER INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

ASIDE FROM THE BRIEF COOLDOWN NOTED ABOVE THU INTO FRI...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  87  71  81  64 /  30  20  40  20
LCH  86  72  86  69 /  20  20  50  40
LFT  87  72  86  69 /  20  10  50  40
BPT  87  71  86  70 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05


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