Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 151042
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
442 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of dense fog are again ongoing acrs the southern half of
the area although vsbys have been fluctuating somewhat. Further
north, fog has not yet materialized, but there is still some
potential for development prior to sunrise. Because of this, have
opted to let the Dense Fog Advisory remain in effect although it
may be need to be cancelled for at least the northern zones over
the next few hours.

Otherwise, the area remains in a warm and humid pattern with sfc
high pres to the east of the region. Southerly winds have kept
temperatures quite warm overnight, with nearly all obs sites in
the middle to upper 60s. For the sake of comparison, normal
climatological high temperatures this time of year are in the
lower 60s.

24

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Areas of dense fog early this morning are expected to linger
through late morning for locations mainly along and south of I-10.
Ridging aloft will limit shower development today, with
temperatures expected to remain well abv normal. Aftn highs will
climb into the upper 70s, although a few locations could see highs
around 80. Record highs at our official climate sites for today
are in the lower 80s, and temperatures could approach these values
at least at Alexandria (record max 81) and possibly Beaumont and
New Iberia (record max 82). Overnight lows tonight will again only
fall into the 60s, with areas of dense marine fog expected to
spread back north acrs the southern zones.

The abnormally warm and humid conditions will persist into
Friday, with a low end chc for showers returning. From Friday
into Saturday, a series of shortwaves will cross the central
plains into the midwest, weakening the ridge over the Gulf and
allowing a cool front to slide into the area. The forward progress
of the front will slow over the weekend as it becomes oriented
parallel with the flow aloft. On Saturday, a weak wave of low pres
is fcst to develop along the boundary, helping to enhance the chc
for showers. The low will lift northeast allowing the front to
drift back south and settle near the coast Saturday night into
Sunday. The front could bring some slightly cooler air southward
into the region during the weekend.

The front will dissipate fairly quickly on Sunday, with southerly
low level flow redeveloping. Abv normal temperatures will return
for early next week, with lows in the 60s and highs back into the
middle to upper 70s. By Monday, a trough over the western CONUS
will deepen, with the upper ridge over the Gulf shifting east.
This will place the region under southwesterly flow aloft, with
embedded disturbances in the flow helping to maintain a daily chc
for showers. Shower and tstm chcs will increase by midweek as the
next cold front is progged to move into the area.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Areas of dense fog persist early this morning over the nearshore
waters and coastal lakes and bays as warm and moist gulf air
overrides the relatively cooler shelf waters. With a light to
moderate onshore flow expected to continue the next few days, the
potential for areas of dense sea fog will persist.

A cold front is still expected to move into the area this weekend.
However, the front is now expected to weaken and stall before
reaching the coastal waters. Thus, an onshore flow is expected to
prevail through the weekend and into early next week. The front
will bring a small chc for showers from Friday into the weekend.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  62  73  51 /  10  10  40  30
LCH  77  62  73  57 /  10  10  30  30
LFT  79  63  77  58 /  10  10  30  20
BPT  77  63  75  59 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ052>055-
     073-074.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ027>033-
     041>045.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ215.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ180-201-
     216-259>262.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ470-472-475.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ430-432-
     435-450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...24



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