Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 241527
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1027 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MCS OVER E TX WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LAKES REGION OF TYLER...
JASPER...AND NEWTON COUNTIES THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND ACROSS C LA
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR TSTM CONTINUES...WITH
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY WX THREAT. FOR THIS...HAD TO
ADJUST MORNING POPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA...WITH THE TROF
EXPECTED TO MOVE SE LATER THIS EVENING AND SAT MORNING...THUS
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER THE REMAINDER OF SE TX/S LA.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
24/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY BR ACRS THE
AREA. CIGS VARY AND ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD MVFR BY MIDDAY.
CONVECTION ACRS SRN TX HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES NE
ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT BPT AND POSSIBLY
EVEN LCH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA HAS
DEVELOPED WEST OF HOUSTON AND IS FCST TO MOVE NE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBO OF THIS ACTIVITY AND ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES WITH
DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCTD STORMS BY AFTN.
BEST CHCS REMAIN OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THUS KEPT TEMPO
GROUP AT AEX FOR THE 19-23Z PERIOD. HOWEVER AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AFTN CONVECTION HAS BEEN OVERDONE BY
MODEL GUIDANCE SO CONFIDENCE NOT EXACTLY GREAT IN WHEN WHERE OR
EVEN HOW MUCH SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP...THUS HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
JUST VC MENTION IN AT SRN SITES WHICH CAN BE AMENDED AS THE
SITUATION EVOLVES. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG RETURNING OVERNIGHT.
24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST
AREA...WITH ONLY MUGGY CONDITIONS AND PATCHY FOG TO MENTION...AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HOLDS.

THIS MID LEVEL RIDGE IS MAKING FOR ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST AS IT
COMES TO RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY. REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGES SHOW A FEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
TEXAS. DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW THE DISTURBANCES PRODUCING
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA...AND WHEN MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE.

FIRST COMPLEX DOWN THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS COAST WILL RIDE ALONG THE
COAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
MORNING. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DECAY...AND
WOULD ONLY EXPECT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO REMAIN WITH THIS FEATURE
AT BEST AS IT REACHES LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...IT MAY LEAVE BEHIND A BOUNDARY THAT COULD BE
USED AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE OTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE HOLDING TOGETHER
BETTER...AND IS PROJECTED TO REACH MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 16Z OR 11AM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF MAINTAINING ITSELF AS LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS DUE TO A
BIT OF A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING OVER EASTERN TEXAS.
THEREFORE...WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
AGAIN...DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG
WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.
THEREFORE...IF STORMS CAN GET GOING...STILL AN IF...THEN SOME
STRONG TO BORDERLINE SEVERE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST. PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS FEATURE TO TAP INTO...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...AGAIN CLOSE TO TWICE THE
STANDARD DEVIATION. ALSO...FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ROBUST MID AND UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX.
THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE THAT NOCTURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...THEN INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWN POURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS SOME STRONG
STORMS DUE TO DECENT LOW SHEAR FROM LOW LEVEL JET MATCHING UP WITH
MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
STABLE AIR REPLACES IT.

SUNDAY IS STILL LOOKING THE BETTER OF THE TWO DAYS...AS DRIER AND
MORE STABLE MID LEVEL AIR HANGS AROUND...PRECLUDING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY...AND
APPARENT TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY...AS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WEST OF THE BAJA FINALLY KICKS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY WET SYSTEM...WITH
HIGH MOISTURE VALUES (PWAT AROUND 2 INCHES)...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND FAVORABLE JET
DYNAMICS.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY LATE
TUESDAY...A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AND UNSEASONAL COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WOULD BE A VERY NICE CHANGE
FOR THE FORECAST AREA IF THIS SCENARIO DOES VERIFY.

RUA

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR
15 KNOTS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH REMAINS
OFF TO THE EAST...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SOME AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL HELP BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
AGAIN INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LOW DEPARTS ON
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND...BRINGING MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  71  86  68 /  70  60  40  10
LCH  83  72  83  70 /  40  30  60  10
LFT  83  74  84  71 /  40  30  60  10
BPT  83  72  86  70 /  30  40  60  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08


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