Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 301420
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
920 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...CONVECTION IS ALREADY POPPING UP ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE THAT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. ALSO POTENTIALLY ADDING TO THE INCREASE IN STORMS IS A
BOUNDARY THAT MAY DRIFT INTO THE NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM CONVECTION NEAR VICKSBURG. POPS WERE NUDGED UP
SOMEWHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COAST AND MAY HANG TOGETHER ENOUGH TO REACH KBPT THROUGH 30/14Z.
WILL START KBPT WITH VCSH TO HANDLE THIS. OTHERWISE...SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 30/13Z AT KLCH AND
KAEX. AMPLE GULF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO
COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL PLACE VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES
AFTER 30/16Z TO COVER THIS. AWAY FROM THE STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...OR ROUGHLY 01/02Z.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GULF FROM THE EAST
WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR TYPICAL AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MID-MORNING.

SHORT TERM...HEAT INDEX VALUES SEASONABLY HIGH BUT UNDER ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TODAY. WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON TEMPS TODAY FROM THE
GUIDANCE AS TEMPS AT H85 WILL BE ABOUT A DEGREE C HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SWLY FLOW WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WENT ABOVE THE GFS YET BLO THE EURO ON
PRECIP CHANCES...CLOSER TO THE NAM SOLUTION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
ARE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...UNDER 1.8 INCHES.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA,
IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
INTO MONDAY. WENT A BIT LOWER ON POPS IN RESPONSE...MINIMAL TO
SEASONAL.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  74  92  75 /  40  20  30  10
LCH  91  77  91  78 /  40  20  30  10
LFT  92  76  91  77 /  40  20  30  10
BPT  92  77  92  77 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05



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