Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 251620
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1120 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR WITH SCT LAYER ~4500-5000 EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA 20% MAY YIELD VCTS BY 21Z FOR
LFT/ARA...WITH HIGHER CHANCES 30% AT ARA WARRANTING A TEMPO GROUP
FROM 22-02Z. FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
WITH L&V WINDS.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET THIS MORNING AND
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
25/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SOME THIN CI HAS BEEN SPREADING SWD ACRS THE AREA...WHILE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED NEAR BPT AND MAY DEVELOP BRIEFLY
NEAR OTHER TERMINALS BEFORE 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LT WLY WINDS BECOMING
MORE SWLY DURING THE AFTN. SOME ISLTD CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTN...WITH AEX/LFT/ARA THE LIKELIEST SITES TO SEE ANY
SHRA/TSRA AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM CONVECTION FURTHER E/NE OF THE
AREA ENCOUNTER THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
SUPPRESSING EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...LEFT PRECIP MENTION OUT
OF TAFS AT THIS TIME. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEW POINTS NEAR THOSE READINGS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MAY BE SOME BRIEF
PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE...BUT SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO MENTION.

ISSUES FOR TODAY IS THE CONTINUING SUMMER HEAT AND ANY RELIEF WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING MID LEVEL
TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
SITUATED OVER TEXAS...SO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
REGION...WHICH MAY PUSH SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH TOO NOT REALLY
AFFECT TEMPERATURES. WITH THAT SAID...SOME MIXING HAS BEEN
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ENOUGH TO LOWER DEW
POINTS...AND THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE AGAIN FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM
105 TO 107 DEGREES AND BELOW CRITERIA. ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...APPARENT TEMPERATURE TOOL DOES HAVE SOME
ISOLATED SPOTS AROUND 109 DEGREES NEAR THE RIVER BASINS IN RAPIDES
AND AVOYELLES PARISHES. SO WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE ASOS AT
ESLER FIELD REACHES ABOVE 108F FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...BUT JUST NOT
ENOUGH OF THE AREA TO PUT OUT AN ADVISORY.

AGAIN ON SUNDAY IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL AS TO HEAT ADVISORY FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...PROXIMITY OF THE
SURFACE BONDARY AND MID LEVEL TROUGHING BRINGING IN AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES JUST IN CHECK.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND A CONTINUATION OF THE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS.

TOWARD MID WEEK TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A SHIFT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST...WILL HELP INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
CLOSER TO CLIMO...THAT WILL IN TURN BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO THE NORMAL RANGE ALSO.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOW SEAS. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST
OF CAMERON...AS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  99  76  97 /  20  20  10  20
LCH  77  97  78  95 /  10  20  20  20
LFT  78  96  78  95 /  20  30  20  20
BPT  76  96  76  95 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...08



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