Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 280002
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
702 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING SET UP FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS UNDERCUTTING PACIFIC MOISTURE
WHERE AC CIGS ABV 10K FEET ARE THE RULE...FAIRLY SOLID ABOVE. RAIN
CHANCES AFTER MID-DAY SUNDAY FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS WITH MVFR
AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF OUT IN
THE GULF MOVING WEST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A WARM (OR GULF) FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH PENSACOLA TO MARINE POINT
26N 94W...DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE FRONTAL SURFACE SLOPES GENTLY
WESTWARD WITH HEIGHT.

THE DECELERATING GULF FRONT WILL SLOW TO A HALT...REACHING A
GULFPORT-MARINE POINT 26N 95W LINE AROUND NOON SUNDAY.

FURTHER-UP...AN EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD
..MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA-FLORIDA  PANHANDLE ON MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVES CONTINUE ROTATING AROUND THE OUTER SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE TEXAS TROUGH...UPSWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO LOUISIANA. THE COMBINATION OF PVA LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPSWINGING SHORTWAVES...AND ADVECTING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS (FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO)...ARE MAINTAINING
CIRRUS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...
WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH ACADIANA
AND INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND LOWEST ACROSS THE LAKES REGION
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...
THE NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER...WHILE THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT NORMAL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE GULF FRONT.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...
A WAVE LOW WILL FORM ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
ITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR...NUDGING THE
AFOREMENTIONED GULFPORT-OFFSHORE BROWNSVILLE FRONTAL SYSTEM FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. THE SLUGGISH FRONT EVENTUALLY COMES TO A HALT NEAR A
GAINSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI LINE BY TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD WESTWARD THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ITS CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION WILL WASH OUT ZONAL GULF FRONT AS IT MOVES POLEWARD.

A GREAT PLAINS COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS (AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) ARE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  84  69  85  69 /  20  20  20  20  10
KBPT  70  83  69  84  70 /  20  20  20  10  10
KAEX  67  83  66  83  65 /  20  20  20  20  10
KLFT  70  82  69  84  68 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$







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