000
FXUS64 KLCH 282324
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
624 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...

A GREAT PLAINS COLD FRONT WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES...REACHING THE COASTLINE BY EARLY MORNING
TUESDAY...BEFORE COMING TO A HALT.

THE TRAVELING FRONT WILL USHER IN A MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

JT
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CDFNT STRETCHING FROM E-W ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SERVING AS A TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SLOW TREK TOWARD
THE SOUTH...AND SHOULD REACH NEAR A WOODVILLE TO VILLE PLATTE LINE
BY MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO NEAR THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH MDLS POINTING TWD A
LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT NEARS THE COAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE CONTINUE TO LOOK
GOOD. SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE FRONT IS FCST TO HANG UP NEAR THE COAST OR PERHAPS A BIT
OFFSHORE...BUT OTHERWISE WAFFLE AROUND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

GLBL MDLS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING THROUGH
THE NW FLOW ALOFT TRANSLATING THROUGH THE REGION THU-FRI...POSSIBLY
INDUCING ONE OR MORE FRONTAL WAVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND/OR
RESULTING IN A COASTAL/INVERTED TROF OVER THE NW GULF. IN EITHER
EVENT...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY...AND MSTR/LIFT PROGS
SUPPORT INCREASING POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

13

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND STALL...BRINGING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE BEING DRIVEN FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS...BUT WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION PENDING
THE POSITION OF THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  93  76  93  73  91 /  30  40  30  10  20
KBPT  94  75  93  75  91 /  20  40  30  10  20
KAEX  93  71  91  68  89 /  30  20  10  10  20
KLFT  93  76  92  71  90 /  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$