Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 171141
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
641 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER PRODUCED ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT SHALLOW GROUND FOG
FORMATION AT THIS TIME. ALL THE TERMINALS ARE MANAGING PREDOMINANT
VFR WITH SOME IFR AND LIFR PATCHES OF FOG. THESE PATCHES SHOULD
MIX OUT BY 13Z AFTER SUNRISE.

A SIMILAR SET UP FOR LATER TNITE WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SO WILL GO FOR A BIT EARLIER ONSET OF VFR MIFG AND
TEMPOS FOR IFR PATCHES AT LFT AND ARA. LCH COULD SEE MVFR FOG
AROUND MIDNIGHT LOWERING TO IFR WITH TEMPO VLIFR AT TIMES.

SWEENEY


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THIS CYCLE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF HAD ALLOWED FOR A MODEST
INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE ON THURSDAY. THIS ALSO RESULTED IN
TEMPERATURES BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY.  A WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  NO
PRECIPITATION IS FORECASTED AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY
A FEW DEGREES LOWER FOR SUNDAY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES OFFSHORE. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL
STATES BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...CURRENT FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH GENERALLY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW GIVING WAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON SATURDAY.  ONLY
A MODEST INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND BOUNDARY ON
SUNDAY.  MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT INCREASES ARE FORECASTED FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SURGE OF N/NE WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. SCEC TO PERHAPS LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OFFSHORE.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  86  63  85  60  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
KBPT  85  64  84  62  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
KAEX  86  60  84  54  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
KLFT  86  63  86  59  82 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$







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