457
FXUS64 KLCH 221545
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1045 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Based on short term guidance this morning, did increase pops a tad
along I-10 for this afternoon. Moisture is surging back north and
should aid in the development of thunderstorms this afternoon.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 635 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/

AVIATION...A few showers and storms will be possible today across
mainly the I-10 corridor terminals, however mostly vfr conditions
are still expected through the period. Winds will be generally
southeast and less than 10kts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Weak area of low pressure and associated trof nearing the TX coast
early this morning, helping generate isolated showers over the
coastal waters and adjacent coastal counties/parishes. While the
region remains underneath the eastern flank of an upper level
ridge, flow in the low levels is gaining an increasingly
southeast/onshore component as the low to mid level ridge axis
shifts eastward.  The resulting influx of Gulf moisture combined
with diurnal instability and the sea breeze should result in at
least isolated afternoon convection. Temperatures this afternoon
are expected to be a couple of degrees cooler, generally in the
lower 90s. Lows tonight will go in the opposite direction, falling
only into the lower/mid 70s.

Rain chances creep up a bit each day into the weekend as the ridge
aloft shifts east and then weakens with the approach of a
significant WRN CONUS upper trof. Global models continue to show
poor run to run continuity or much in the way of agreement with
each other regarding the eventual evolution of this trof and the
subsequent sensible weather for our area next week. 00Z
operational runs have generally backed away from the idea of a
cool and dry mid week following a wet start, but this is vastly
different from previous operational runs. Latest temperature ensemble
spread within the GFS and ECMWF remains on the order of 10 to 20
degrees, though the means are not too far apart. Latest SuperBlend
is a bit on the cool side, but still within the ensemble envelope.
Given the uncertainty/low confidence, its solution is not
unreasonable and therefore did not make any manual adjustments.
Hopefully greater clarity will emerge over the next day or so.

13

MARINE...
A light to modest onshore flow can be expected through the
weekend as high pressure shifts east of the area. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase over the weekend and into early
next week as an upper level trof of low pressure approaches slowly
from the west.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  72  92  71 /  10   0  20  10
LCH  91  76  90  76 /  30  10  20  10
LFT  92  75  92  76 /  20  10  20  10
BPT  91  76  91  76 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27