000
FXUS64 KLCH 081105
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
505 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN ISSUE FOR THIS MORNINGS TERMINALS WILL BE OCCASIONAL BKN
MVFR CEILINGS ~1500-2500FT FOR BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA...WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR CEILINGS AT AEX THRU 15-16Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECTING INCREASED
SE WINDS 8-12 KTS WITH SCT/BKN DECK ~3500-5000FT. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LOWER AGAIN...ALONG WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHRA.
FOR THIS...PLACED VCSH IN ALL TERMINALS AFTER 00Z...WITH A PROB30
GROUP FOR THE BETTER CHANCES AFTER 06Z.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NERN GULF OF MEXICO...PROVIDING A LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ATTM. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN GREATLY IN
RESPONSE TO THIS SRLY FLOW WITH READINGS SOME 10-15 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER IN THE FORM OF A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF IS NOTED CROSSING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
ATTM. LOCAL 88DS SHOW SOME LIGHT RETURNS CROSSING THE REGION
ALTHOUGH SFC OBS FAIL TO DEPICT ANY PRECIP...LOOKS LIKE DRIZZLE AT
MOST UNDER A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK.

EXPECTING ONE MORE MAINLY DRY DAY BEFORE AN EXTENDED RETURN OF
POPS TO THE FORECAST. THE SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
EWD...ALLOWING ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP AND MOISTURE THROUGH
THE COLUMN TO INCREASE (MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1.25 INCHES OR ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY 00Z
SUNDAY). WEAK ENERGY IS PROGGED TO PUSH OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TODAY...POSSIBLY CREATING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE WRN 1/4 OF THE FORECAST ARE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO THE GOOD
CHANCE NEIGHBORHOOD FOR THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP POPS SOMEWHAT IN CHECK DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES COME DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE NEW WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. A PIECE
OF ENERGY FROM THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CUT OFF AND
STRENGTHEN INTO A LOW OVER OLD MEXICO...THEN GRADUALLY PUSH EWD
INTO THE NRN GULF. THIS IN TURN WILL HELP FORM A SFC LOW ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT. COMBO OF THESE FEATURES WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE SRN
ZONES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM PUSHES TOWARD THE SERN CONUS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ARE PROGGED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN...LEADING TO A DRIER
AND COOLER END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW CROSSING
THE NRN GULF DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH CAUTION
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED ON
THE COASTAL WATERS FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  67  55  67  52  67 /  10  50  40  30  30
KBPT  68  55  65  52  67 /  10  50  40  30  30
KAEX  68  53  67  49  69 /  10  40  40  30  20
KLFT  67  55  69  53  70 /  10  40  40  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$