Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 091745
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1145 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 09/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RESULT. ONLY ISSUE WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET AND
MIXING FROM DAYTIME HEATING ENDS...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BE
LIGHT FROM LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY ON TARGET. PRIMARY CHANGES WERE TO
ADJUST SFC DEWPOINTS AND WINDS TO TREND IN LINE WITH LATEST
OBS/GUIDANCE.

THE LOW WATER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH CURRENT TIDAL READINGS ALONG THE SE TX AND SW LA COAST
RANGING FROM -2.5 TO -3 FT MLLW. WE ARE CURRENTLY AT OR NEAR THE
TIME OF PREDICTED LOW TIDE ALONG THE COAST...BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THESE READINGS TO CLIMB ABOVE -1.0 FT MLLW. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A PREDICTED LOW TIDE FOR THE CALCASIEU RIVER
UPCOMING THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE CURRENT READINGS ARE ALREADY
LOWER THAN -1.0 FT MLLW. A FURTHER EXTENSION IN TIME OF THE
ADVISORY HERE IS POSSIBLE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
ONLY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS DURING THE DAY.  AREA 88D VWPS
ARE SHOWING NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.  WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG BUT BREEZY TO GUSTY NW WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. CONDITIONS IDEAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING AFTER SUNSET SO WILL DIMINISH WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY
AROUND 02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION IS PRODUCING DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS THE DEW
POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH THROUGH THE DAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE BRISK
WINDS BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WEATHER FACTORS WILL
ELEVATED THE FIRE THREAT AGAIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

BY TOMORROW MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE
REGION AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE GULF DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE BACK INTO THE 30S.

TOWARDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO JUMP INTO THE 40S THEN INTO THE 50S BY
FRIDAY. THE GOOD NEWS WITH SUNNY SKIES LOOKING FOR 70S ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  33  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  59  37  62  47 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  56  38  59  44 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  62  38  64  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-
     470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-470-472-475.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450.

&&

$$


AVIATION...07


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