000
FXUS64 KLCH 261756
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1156 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS INDICATE THAT OUR PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
DECK CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS POST-FRONTAL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL AFTER SUNSET WHEN RESIDUAL LINGERING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER EVENING INVERSION AND
MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOP. OTHER MAIN STORY LOOKS TO BE BRISK NRLY
WINDS WITH SPEEDS RUNNING 10 KNOTS OR MORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...REINFORCING COLD FRONT AROUND THE ARKLATEX WILL MOVE
THROUGH ALL BUT LOW4ER ACADIANA BY AROUND NOON AND SHOULD FILTER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNSET.
ADJUSTED AFTERNOON TEMPS LOWER DUE TO CONTINUING CLOUD COVER AND
COLD ADVECTION.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WIDESPREAD
STRATOCU WITHIN HIGH-END IFR TO LOW-END MVFR WILL START THE TAF
PACKAGE AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS COMING AS MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED
BETWEEN A STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTAL INVERSION. SOME RAISING OF
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. A FEW MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING BREAKING OUT OF MVFR CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND
GENERALLY TRENDED TAFS IN THIS DIRECTION....BUT WILL SEE
REDEVELOPMENT POST-SUNSET.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NATION AS BITTER COLD IS
GRIPPING THE UPPER PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING. A CANADIAN AIR
MASS HAS MOVED INTO THE DAKOTAS AND WISCONSIN... TEMPERATURES ARE
RANGING FROM -10 BELOW TO -31 DEGREES BELOW AT CRANE LAKE IN UPPER
WISCONSIN. SOUTH FLORIDA IS CURRENTLY A BALMY 75 DEGREES. CLOUDS
OVER OUR REGION HAVE MANAGED TO HANG IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND THIS HAS HELD TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS A FAST MOVING DRY COLD FRONT THAT HAS
MOVED THROUGH THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL
MAKE SHREVEPORT AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LATEST FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO
ALEXANDRIA BEFORE NOON AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF BEFORE SUNSET.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH CLOUDS THIS MORNING
WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TODAY. TONIGHT
WILL SEE TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN AS THE WINDS SETTLE.
FRIDAY WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS TODAY BUT WE WILL BEGIN A WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY.

LOOKING FOR RAINS LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RIDE
BACK OVER THE FRONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPS DOWN. RAINS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AGAIN. BUT THE GOOD NEWS DURING THIS
PERIOD....AFTN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  33  50  34  59 /   0  10  10  10  20
KBPT  51  35  50  35  58 /   0  10  10  10  20
KAEX  44  28  41  29  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  48  32  49  35  60 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
     CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

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&&

$$