637
FXUS66 KLOX 091735
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1035 AM PDT Thu May 9 2024

Updated Aviation Section

.SYNOPSIS...09/900 AM.

A quiet weather pattern is expected through early next week with
near normal temperatures and no rain. Increasing night and morning
low clouds are expected across coast and valleys as onshore flow
increases. Mostly minor day to day changes in temperatures are
expected through Sunday, then cooling possible Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...09/906 AM.

***UPDATE***

Stratus coverage was less than expected last night and this
morning, especially north of Pt Conception. However, north/south
gradients are weakening today and low clouds are starting to
round the point and move north, so expecting better coverage
tonight with possibly some dense fog. Otherwise, today will feel a
lot like yesterday with stratus eventually clearing and temps in
the high 60s to mid 70s, except around 80 in the warmest valleys
and interior areas.

***From Previous Discussion***

The eddy will continue to spin tonight and its likely that the
low clouds will arrive sooner. Rising hgts will smoosh the marine
layer and there will be more fog. Stronger onshore flow and a
stronger inversion will add a few more hours to the clearing time
with some beaches remaining cloudy into the afternoon. Look for 2
to 4 degrees of cooling across the coasts and vlys, but sunny
skies will bring an additional 3 to 5 degrees of warming to the
interior. While the csts/vlys will be 2 to 4 degrees blo normal
the mtns and interior will be 2 to 4 degrees above normal.

The eddy is much weaker Fri night and Sat morning. The onshore
flow will be a little weaker as well. The low clouds will affect
most of the coasts south of Pt Conception but the vlys will remain
clear. The low clouds will burn off quicker as well. At the upper
levels the retrograding low will finally begin to push to the east
and hgts will rise. Max temps will respond and warm 2 to 4 degrees
across the entire area.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...09/1216 AM.

Weak ridging will persist on Sunday. Followed by a weak and dry
cut off low moving in over the area Mon through Wed. Onshore flow
increases through the period and by mid weak may be near +9 to the
east and +6 to the N.

Look for the marine layer to increase each day with later and
later burn offs as the onshore flow increases. Gusty afternoon
winds from the west will also develop esp on Tue and Wed with the
strongest gusts across the LA mtns and the Antelope Vly.

Look for warmer temps on Sunday with 70s across the coasts and 80s
in the vlys. Most areas will cool all three days Mon to Wed with
the csts/vlys cooling the most due to the increased marine layer
and onshore flow. The AV may be the exception as the west winds
will create some downslope warming. From a climate point of view
the csts/vlys will fall to several degrees blo normal while the
inland areas will remain noticeably above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...09/1735Z.

At 17Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2800 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3700 feet with a temperature of 14 C.

Moderate confidence in generally similar conditions over the next
24 hours as the previous. There is a chance for IFR/LIFR cats
tonight into Friday at KSMX (70% chance) and KSBP (30% chance).
Otherwise, high confidence in MVFR being common.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in current ceiling clearing by 18-20Z.
High confidence in MVFR ceilings returning as early as 03Z and as
late as 09Z. Southeast winds possible 08-16Z Friday, but high
confidence in winds staying under 08 knots.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in current ceiling clearing by 18-19Z.
High confidence in ceilings returning as early as 05Z and as late
as 10Z. There is a 40 percent chance of ceilings initially IFR
for a few hours but MVFR should be most common. Southeast winds
will be more prevalent and longer lasting than usual.

&&

.MARINE...09/759 AM.

Southeast winds will be dominant this morning. Localized gusts to
around 20 kt are possible between the islands and through the
passages. The rather large west to northwest swell from the past
few days is slower to subside than expected, but still on track to
lower through the day and through Friday.

There is a 60 percent chance for Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds
for the offshore waters Saturday night through Sunday, and a 30
percent chance for the nearshore waters of the Central Coast.
Otherwise high confidence in winds staying under SCA through the
weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Kittell
MARINE...RK
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox