Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 242200
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PST Fri Feb 24 2017

...Marine discussion updated...

.SYNOPSIS...

A couple of lows will bring more clouds...cooler temperatures and
precipitation from Saturday night to Monday Night...with highest
rain amounts on Sunday morning. A warming trend will start by
midweek with temperatures to go above normal by the weekend in
offshore flow and high pressure.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-MON)

Overall a nice couple days on tap today and Saturday with temps
still a few degrees below normal. There will be a noticeable
increase in high clouds over the area Saturday afternoon and then
filling in at lower levels through the evening but precip not
expected until later that night across the Central Coast and early
Sunday morning in southern areas. This is a tricky, though
ultimately very low impact rain event with any amounts expected to
be under a quarter inch, and in some areas barely measuring. Pwats
are barely a half inch so it`s not a particularly moist air mass
to begin with.

The 18z NAM has wobbled the track of the upper low a bit farther
inland, just enough to dry out what little precip it was
previously forecasting for our area. In fact, it keeps the Central
Coast dry now too. I`m going to stick with the more consistent
GFS/ECMWF solutions which while still very light brings at least a
hundredth or two to most areas, qualifying this event for the
dubious "high pop/low qpf" title. And by "high pop" we`re talking
50-60%. Even the ECMWF has dropped back it`s already light
amounts. So a lot of talk for very little excitement. Probably
some sprinkles/light showers during the morning, then some
clearing in the afternoon except for southeastern LA County which
may see a slight increase in shower activity in the late
afternoon/early evening with some upslope enhancement near the San
Gabriel foothills which the NAM maintains through the overnight
hours.

Monday looks dry except for possibly some lingering light precip
in southeastern LA County and in the mountains and interior SLO
County. Temperatures still on the cool side with highs mostly in
the mid 50s to low 60s for coast/valleys.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

Another weak long wave trough will swing through the West Coast
Tuesday but little to no impacts locally. Heights will start
rising through the end of the week as high pressure aloft develops
over the eastern Pacific. There`s also a hint of some light to
possibly moderate offshore flow late next week that will bring
some additional warming to the area. If the trends revert back to
a somewhat stronger offshore event like the GFS showed a couple
days ago we could be looking at some 80s returning to the area,
but right now it looks like a solid stretch of 70s starting
Wednesday and lasting into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z.

At 17Z at KLAX... There was no notable inversion.

Overall... High confidence in the current TAFs. VFR conditions
will prevail throughout the forecast period across the region.
Periodic LLWS and moderate UDDF through 23Z at terminals south of
Point Conception.

KLAX... High confidence in the current TAF. VFR conditions will
prevail throughout the forecast period across the region.
Periodic LLWS and moderate UDDF through 23Z. East winds are
expected 25/09z through 25/22z but will remain below 7 kts.

KBUR... High confidence in the current TAF. VFR conditions will
prevail throughout the forecast period across the region.
Periodic LLWS and moderate UDDF through 23Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/200 PM.

Winds across the central and southern outer waters have diminished
to below advisory levels and the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has
been cancelled. However there will be locally gusty winds to 25
kts in the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel through
midnight. The winds in that region may become locally gusty
Saturday afternoon and evening as well and there is a twenty
percent chance that the winds could become strong enough for a SCA
to be issued.

Otherwise and elsewhere no hazards are expected across the coastal
waters through the weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(MON-FRI)
No significant hazards expected.

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Kj
MARINE...Kj
SYNOPSIS...STu

weather.gov/losangeles


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