550
FXUS66 KLOX 130206
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
706 PM PDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...12/704 PM.

Night through morning low clouds and patchy fog will affect the
coasts and lower valleys into next week. Max temperatures will
warm slightly tomorrow but remain below normal through Monday
except for far interior valleys. Continued cooling will become
more noticeable across the entire area through middle of next
week where valley highs are only expected to be in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...12/704 PM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate stratus/fog is
beginning to make its return inland and should behave similar to
last night and this morning. As for winds, strong onshore pressure
gradient is driving gusty Southwesterly winds of 25 to 40 mph
across the Antelope Valley and adjacent foothills. With pressure
gradients expected to weaken slightly, the winds across the far
interior should reduce by an average of 5-10 mph. The temperature
forecast remains on track with coastal and valley locations
remaining below average, while the Antelope Valley, Lockwood
Valley, and Carrizo Plain should remain slightly above normal
through the weekend.

The current short-term forecast is on track. Thus, no significant
updates are planned.

***From Previous Discussion***

Very minimal day to day changes are expected in the short term. A
594 dam high will hang out over the region for the next few days,
though any warming affect that it typically would have will be
limited thanks to the moderate to strong onshore flow each day.
The LAX-DAG (easterly) gradient, will be around 9mb each
afternoon, while the LAX-BFL (northerly) gradient will be around
6 mb each afternoon.

Max temperatures each day through Monday will mostly be in the
60s-70s across the coasts, with 80s and lower 90s in the valleys.
These max temps are mostly 3 to 6 degrees below normal for this
time of year. The Antelope Valley, however, will continue near
100 degrees each day (5 degrees above normal), as it is mainly
free from the cooling marine influence. As for Tuesday, the high
pressure starts to break down, and a few degrees of cooling will
result across the region.

With how strong the onshore gradients are, coupled with a strong
inversion overtop, night through morning clouds each day will be
slow to burn off, and may not even clear from west facing beaches.
Otherwise, clouds will come flying back in during the late
afternoon/early evening timeframe.

Lastly the strong north push will bring gusty winds to the
interior each afternoon and evening, especially the western
Antelope Valley and foothills. Wind speeds will be close to
advisory levels but likely just under with a few of the typical
gusty locations seeing gusts to 45 mph.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...12/246 PM.

The strong onshore flow will continue through Thursday, and may
even become a mb stronger, before starting to weaken thursday
night through Friday. Conditions on Wednesday and Thursday will
be very similar, with temps not changing much from Tuesday. The
night through morning low clouds and fog will continue unabated
and the beaches will continue to struggle with clearing.

The strong onshore flow will continue to bring gusty (likely
advisory level) winds to some of the mountains as well as the
western portions of the Antelope Valley and foothills.
Additionally, the gusty winds across the mountains and interior
along with fairly warm temperatures and fairly low humidities
through Tuesday, will bring an uptick in fire weather danger.

Thursday evening, both the GFS and EC and show a significant
increase in moisture at 700 mb and above advecting in from the
SSE. Additionally, a portion of ensemble members from the GFS and
EC are showing PWATs of 0.8 to 1.1 at KPMD, starting Thursday
evening through Sunday. Skies may turn partly cloudy. As of now,
there is a 5 to 10 percent chance for high based monsoonal
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours Thursday
through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...13/0008Z.

At 2310Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3700 feet with a max temperature of 25 C.

High confidence in VFR conditions for KWJF and KPMD.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Time of the return of cigs
this evening for sites may be off by +/- 2 hours, and heights may
be off by 1 flight category at times. Dense fog with VSBY
1/4SM-1/2SM will be possible (20% chance) from 08Z-15Z at KSBP,
KSMX, and KSBA. At KPRB, there is a 15% chance for LIFR to IFR
conds from 12Z to 17Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Clearing and arrival times for
cigs may be off by +/- 2 hours, and heights may range from
400-2000 ft overnight. No significant east wind component
expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Clearing and arrival times for
cigs may be off by +/- 2 hours, and heights may range from
400-1200 ft overnight.

&&

.MARINE...12/647 PM.

Sunday afternoon and evening, localized Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) W to NW winds may impact the waters around Point Conception
south to the western Channel Islands, and nearshore from Point
Mugu to Pacific Palisades and through the San Pedro Channel.
Otherwise, relatively benign conditions will continue through at
least the middle of next week.

Night to morning patchy dense fog is possible through at least
Monday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lund/Black
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Lewis/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...Black

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox