Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 031344 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 944 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...NW FLOW IS TAKING OVER WITH BLENDED TPW PRODUCT INDICATING DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. AS SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH WITH NOT MUCH LIFT AVAILABLE TODAY OTHER THAN A CONVERGENCE LINE SETTING UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ACCORDING TO MODELS. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE STILL LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK EWD BUT INSTABILITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN YDAY. NO SEVERE WX EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS ONLY ABOUT 70F TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... LOWEST POPS OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE AREA AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW. CLOUDY WITH LOWS AROUND 50F WEST TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS SE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE CAROLINA COAST. PLENTY OF LIFT IN THIS TIME FOR SHOWERS AND JUST ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT INTERMITTENT...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THIS SHOULD HELP RECOUP THE PRECIP DEFICIT ACROSS THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WHILE THE ROCKY MTNS WL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPR LVL RDG THU/FRI THE ERN U.S. WL BE XPRNCG A LARGE TROF. THIS WL BE MAKE MID ATLC WX CLDY COOL AND SHOWERY. HIGHS WL BE IN 60-65 RNG...LOWS A50. TROF WL LIFT TO THE NE SAT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEAK INDUCED RDG TO RETURN TO THE AREA...BRINGING SOME SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 70S. A WEAK CD FNT IS XPCTD TO PASS THRU THE MID ATLC SUNDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING A FEW RW TO THE AREA. HIGH PRES OVR THE RGN NEXT MON. HIGHS RMNG IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IFR CONDS THROUGH THE MORNING AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND SHIFTS EAST. NELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SW OF THE DC METROS IN MAINLY MVFR CONDS. RAIN TAPERS OFF IN BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS PERSIST...POSSIBLE IFR CONDS AGAIN. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AND CROSSEST THURSDAY WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. SUB-VFR CONDS LKLY THU/FRI IN LOWERED CIGS...THEN A RETURN TO VFR CONDS SAT. && .MARINE... NLY WIND TURNS NELY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE AREA. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS THU/FRI XCPT OVC SKIES/RW. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...BAJ LONG TERM...ABW AVIATION...LFR/ABW MARINE...LFR/ABW

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