Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 260054 AAA AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 854 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE. RAISED MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE METRO AREAS AND REMOVED POPS ALONG THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S CAN BE EXPECTED EXCEPT 50S IN THE METRO AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...USHERING IN A DRIER AIRMASS. DEWPTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE VA HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAKING FOR A DRY DAY. NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. ANY CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE EAST COAST. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WERE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE MID-WEST. MOISTURE IS LAGGING WITH ONLY LIGHT WAA ALOFT. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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STRONG SHORTWAVE/PVA CROSSING GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN 500MB LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AFFECT THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN THE TROUGH AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF STATES BEFORE STALLING AT WEEKS END. COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO CWA FRIDAY WHILE A LOW DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. PATTERN INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT THE CWA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SW WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. W-NW WINDS 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SUNSET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
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&& .MARINE...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT LATE TONIGHT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA AND EXPANDS FOR ALL THE WATERS SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 28KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT. W-NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. DEWPTS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES AROUND 25-35% BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW FUEL MOISTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE REGION OF VA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH AND LOW FUEL MOISTURES WILL LEAD TO THE ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRES SUNDAY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>533-539>541. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535- 536-538-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HAS NEAR TERM...KRW SHORT TERM...HAS LONG TERM...CEM AVIATION...HAS/KRW MARINE...HAS/KRW FIRE WEATHER...HAS/KRW

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