Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 241851 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 251 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving front will slide south away from the region tonight. High pressure will dominate over the weekend. A cold front will approach the area Monday before crossing the area Tuesday. High pressure will return for mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 2PM...a weak stationary front remained draped across the area. The wind shift line is hard to determine, and the pressure trough stretches west-to-east across the CWA..but the drop in dew points remains near the Pennsylvania border. Thus we remain in a moist and unstable air mass with dew points not far from 70 in much of the area. Combined with afternoon sunshine and an approaching short wave...and we should see continued scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening. Profiles remain decent for sporadic severe...but plenty of dry air aloft is helping keep storms from getting too tall. This may change for a time late today...especially in central Virginia and southern Maryland...so the risk of isolated severe weather remains. Main risk is hail and gusty winds...with a secondary threat of locally heavy rain given that the storms so far are not moving much. Tonight...the trough will pass the area this evening and convection will wane from NE to SW. The high to the north will nudge southward and easterly flow will take over. Guidance is suggesting a low cloud deck will develop...and the rains which much of the area has had suggest some patchy fog may try to form as well. Lows will be in the 60s. Low clouds and patchy fog early Saturday should break for sun over most of the area and highs will return to the low-mid 80s. However, with drier air pushing in from the north, it should be more comfortable. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridge builds across the area aloft on Sunday then gets pushed east of the area by a shortwave on Monday. At the surface...high pressure will shift east of the area on Sunday but a tongue will extend southwest across the region. By Monday the next cold front will be approaching from the west. The high will promote possible patchy fog early Sunday...otherwise sunshine will dominate and it will be slightly warmer than Saturday. By Monday clouds will increase and showers and thunderstorms will spread into the area by afternoon. Will need to watch any severe threat. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Seasonably warm and humid conditions are expected Monday in southerly flow. A cold front will move in from the west during the day and may trigger showers and thunderstorms. Shear looks like it won`t be as impressive as with recent events, but still decent veering (southerly at the surface to westerly at 500 MB). The front may get hung up over eastern parts of the area Monday night into Tuesday before weakening. High pressure will bring a return to dry weather briefly Tuesday night into Wednesday before another system approaches late in the week. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main concern this afternoon into early this evening is scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any storm may bring hail and gusty winds but coverage should be hit-or-miss. Cigs and vis may also be reduced significantly as any storm passes. Overnight into early Saturday, low clouds and fog are possible which may bring cigs and vis down to at least MVFR if not IFR. Improvement by Saturday afternoon with high pressure followed by perhaps some more patchy fog Saturday night into Sunday morning. VFR Sunday aft to Monday morning, then sub-VFR possible in Monday afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Stalled front in the area combined with an approaching upper level disturbance is promoting shower and thunderstorm development. Storms may produce gusty winds this afternoon into early this evening. Otherwise, winds should be below 18 knots through Monday morning as high pressure noses in from the north and northeast through the weekend. Cold front approaching Monday may bring SCA gusts via southerly channelling. A brief period of SCA level gusts is possible again Tuesday in westerly flow as high pressure builds in behind the front. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCM NEAR TERM...RCM SHORT TERM...RCM LONG TERM...DFH AVIATION...RCM/DFH MARINE...RCM/DFH

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