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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KLWX 190114
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
914 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY....REMAINING OFF
THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC SHORE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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CDFNT ON NWRN DOORSTEP. AREA CLRD OUT NICELY BHD AFTN SHRA/TSRA...
BUT A FEW TSRA HV SURVIVED...MAKING ITS WAY INTO NRN MD/ERN WVA.
WRF-ARW4 HAS BEEN CAPTURING EVOLUTION WELL THUS FAR...AND WL BE
BASING UPDT ON IT. RDR TRENDS HV BEEN DOWNWARD IN TERMS OF
STRENGTH...BUT DO FEEL WE/LL BE ABLE TO HOLD ONTO AT LEAST ISOL
ACTIVITY FOR AT LEAST SVRL MORE HRS. POPS HV BEEN RETOOLED TO BE
MORE CDFNT-CENTRIC.

WHILE THERE MAY BE A DECENT SURGE OF DRIER AIR COMING BHD THE
FNT...AM WONDERING IF IT/LL MAKE IT INTO CWFA TIL MIXING RETURNS
AFTR DAYBREAK. THEREFORE...HV MAINTAINED FLOW BCMG NLY BUT HV
RESISTED SOME MDL GDNC SUGGESTING THAT WNDS WL PICK UP OVNGT. THAT
MAKES PATCHY FOG MORE PSBL...BUT CONDENSATION WL BE FIGHTING
DROPPING DEWPTS.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC...PUSHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES SOUTH. LIGHT N FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F. DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN RETURN FLOW MIDWEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ISOL/SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE TERRAIN WEST FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EACH DAY. LOW PRES WL BE EXITING THE CST WED MRNG W/
HIGH PRES BLDG IN FM THE UPR MIDWEST. VERY PLSNT DAYS/NGTS XPCTD
WED AND THU W/ HIGHS IN THE L80S..LOWS RANGING FM THE M50S IN THE
HIGHLANDS TO THE M60S IN THE CITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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CDFNT WL BE DROPPING ACRS AREA OVNGT. SCT SHRA/TSRA APPCHG FM THE
N. THESE SEEM TO BE MISSING MRB ON ALL SIDES. ONLY OTR SITE AT
RISK MAY BE IAD...BUT THEY SHUD BE DECAYING BY THAT POINT. ITS
STILL QSTNBL WHETHER WHATEVER IS LEFT WLL MISS TERMINAL TO THE W.
OTRW...CHCS OF ANY SHRA/TSRA OVNGT VERY LOW. IF AN AIRPORT IS
AFFECTED...IT/LL BE A BRIEF PD OF MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR VSBY
RESTRICTION.

AREAS MVFR FOG PSBL OVNGT...CONTINGENT ON HOW QUICKLY DRIER AIR
MVS SWD AND WHETHER WNDS DCPL OR NOT. THAT PLACES HIEST RISK AT
CHO. ANY RESTRICTION SHUD ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

VFR CONDS AND LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL MORNING FOG
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&&

.MARINE...
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N WNDS WL OCCUR BHD A WEAK CDFNT OVNGT. SOME GDNC SUGGESTING VALUES
MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE SURGE OF DRIER AIR. AM
SKEPTICAL OF THAT ATTM...AND HV KEPT WNDS 10-15 KT. HWVR...MAY
EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE ONCE DAYTIME MIXING RESUMES.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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&&

$$