Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 231524 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1124 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS LATE THIS MORNING. WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD IS PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF THE POTOMAC RIVER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE CLOUDS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THIS AREA FOR ISOLATED SHOWER POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-25 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH. NWRLY WINDS WL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN TDA. WARMEST AREA SHOULD BE THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FM THE M60S NEAR CHO TO THE U50S ALONG THE M-D LN AND IN THE HIGHLANDS. TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE - 5:50 TO 6;15 PM. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE COVERED IN THE SWRN SKY. CLDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURG THIS TIME. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TNGT. CLDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURG THE EVE. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE OVRNGT. TEMPS RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE U40S IN THE CITIES. MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP INTO THE LM40S. FRI SHOULD BE THE BEGINNING OF SVRL VERY NICE DAYS. HIGH PRES BLDG OVR THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO M SUNNY SKIES...LGTR NWRLY WINDS. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU60S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WHILE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE FRI...ANOTHER EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE DRY...ONLY BRINGING SOME SCATTERED BATCHES OF LOW-MID CLOUD DECKS OVER THE AREA. AN STRONG UPPER JET WILL THEN CARRY THE NEXT CLIPPER-FEATURE DOWN FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO ERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND FROM SAT INTO SUN. GUIDANCE MEMBERS IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS NEXT WAVE AND THE LACK OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AREA. ALL THE WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND COVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATED AND NEAR-AVG CONDITIONS FOR OUR REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST OVER THE MED RANGE WILL BE SUNDAY...W/ THE APPEARANCE OF THE BACK END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE A SUBSIDENCE SWIPE ACROSS THE REGION AND MIX-DOWN SOME OF GUSTY WINDS. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN W/ THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR WELL TO OUR NORTH AND/OR DISSIPATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL PA BEFORE REACHING THE MASON-DIXON LINE BOTH SAT AND SUN. POPS WERE KEPT OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE NEAR TERM AND NOT INTRODUCED AGAIN TIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD W/ AN EXPECTED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SOUTHEAST HIGH PRESSURE ZONE WILL ROLL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHED ALONG BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM MODEL DEPICTION OF THIS FEATURE`S PROGRESSION AND WHETHER IT WILL BREAK OFF INTO SEPARATE WAVES OF WEAKEN AND LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE MAKING MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE EAST COAST. LEANED TOWARD THE EURO W/ THE SRN STREAM PIECE SPLITTING OFF AND EVENTUALLY SLIDING A WEAKENING AND PRECIP-LIGHT COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PRIMARILY VFR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE OVER WASHINGTON DC LATE THIS MORNING...BUT PERSIST OVER BALTIMORE METRO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KMTN. WINDS WL CONT TO BE GUSTY FM THE NW. VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES TNGT AND FRI. A BREEZY AFTN ON SUN BUT NOT OVERLY SO...MAINLY A STEADY 15-25KT NW BREEZE DURING THE DAYTIME HRS - DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA`S WX QUIET OTHERWISE. THE NEXT WX-FEATURE EXPECTED TO BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE...
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GALE WARNING OVER PORTIONS OF CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 30KT THIS MORNING...EVEN UNDER BETTER LATE MORNING MIXING CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. GUSTS IN THE LOWER BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC MAY REACH 30 KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALSO POINTING TO A POTENTIAL BRIEF INCREASE IN GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING THIS EVE...BUT ONLY TO SCA LVLS. SCA SHOULD CONT FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BUILD OVER THE AREA AND KEEP A QUIET-WX INFLUENCE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALTHOUGH...A FAST-MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL CARRY GUSTY WINDS ON SUN AFTN/EVE...SCA CONDS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...BUT NO OTHER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531- 535-536-538>540-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530- 531-535-536-538>540-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537- 541-543.
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&& $$ MARINE UPDATE...KCS

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