Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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316 FXUS61 KLWX 100839 CCA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 404 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will remain across the area through Friday. Weak high pressure will build over the area Saturday, then another front may drop southward toward the area Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A weak surface front/pressure trough extends northeast to southwest across the area. Aloft, a trough axis extends southward from the Great Lakes along the western Appalachians. Moisture and lift in deep southwest flow ahead of trough has resulted in some scattered showers developing through the night, although the coverage has started to diminish over the last hour or so. Low clouds are becoming more common across the area and may take some time to scatter/lift today. Some patchy fog is also developing, but thick mid and high levels should prevent it from becoming too widespread. There is some uncertainty with coverage of showers through the morning, as a few models show fairly extensive coverage of light rain developing, while a larger number just have a few scattered showers, mainly south and east of DC. This could have some effect on heating, although with moist southwest flow remaining in place, few breaks in the clouds will likely occur until afternoon, generally progressing from southwest to northeast. With the cloud cover and temperatures only rising into the lower to mid 80s, instability will be much less than previous days. The fact that the trough axis will be moving overhead in the moist environment likely mean that at least some scattered showers and storms will develop, but severe weather looks unlikely. The greatest coverage will likely be along the southern and western periphery of the CWA where there will be more sun. Precipitable water values will be around 1.5-1.8 inches west of the Blue Ridge and closer to 2 inches to the east, so there is still some threat of heavy rain due to slower storm motions. However, due to the lower coverage and lower instability in place, the flooding threat should be more isolated today. If there is one area to key in on, it would be Nelson and Albemarle, where greater storm potential intersects saturated ground. Will continue to monitor the need to coordinate a watch in this area. With the trough axis and deeper moisture progressing to the east tonight, rain chances should quickly decrease and there may be some clearing. There`s a signal in guidance for fog to develop, and some could be locally dense. Lows will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Subtle ridging will begin to build Friday, and the surface front/trough will become increasingly diffuse. More sunshine will allow temperatures to bump upward into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Without a strong trigger, convective development will likely be tied to the terrain, though scattered activity could form elsewhere, especially closer to the river/bay breezes. Low shear will limit the severe threat, though moderate instability and some drying aloft may support a few pulse downbursts. Precipitable water values will also trend down, but slow storm motions on saturated soils could result in an isolated instance of flooding. However, the pulsey nature of storms will likely limit their residence time. Fog may develop again Friday night. Ridging aloft builds further Saturday. The surface pattern remains ill defined in the weak gradients, but weak surface high could be implied. There will also be a weak backdoor boundary which may attempt to approach between high pressure over New England and a low off the coast. With all that said, the forecast is not that much different than Friday without a notable feature to focus storm development. Generally scattered coverage is expected with an isolated flood threat remaining possible for any slow moving storms over saturated grounds. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A typical summertime pattern will persist across the area through the middle of next week, with seasonable heat and humidity, as well as chances for thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. On the synoptic scale, the pattern is expected to change very little over the course of the long term period, with the stronger belt of westerlies staying well to our north, and no strong frontal passages to speak of. While there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, the greatest coverage of storms will likely occur on Monday as a shortwave disturbance aloft moves through, providing a bit more large scale forcing for ascent. Ample sunshine is expected through the morning hours each day. High temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 80s to around 90 each day, with overnight low temperatures in the mid-upper 60s to the west of the Blue Ridge, and then lower to middle 70s further east. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Cloud decks remain patchy and variable, but guidance suggests they fill in toward sunrise, with IFR conditions expected for most areas (LIFR at CHO). While visibility may be reduced, ceilings should prevail over fog this morning. These ceilings will gradually lift through the morning and early afternoon. Some scattered showers will also be possible but should not carry additional impact. The longer residence time of the clouds may hamper thunderstorm development today. Included a PROB30 group for DCA/IAD/MRB for the late afternoon, but it`s definitely at the lower end of the probability spectrum. BWI/MTN may just see some lingering showers. There is a greater chance of storms at CHO, however. This threat rapidly diminishes during the evening, with a pretty strong signal for fog the second half of the night as skies start to clear. Some locally dense fog can`t be ruled out. Friday and Saturday will be similar that afternoon/evening convection will be more scattered in nature and should be brief in nature. Patchy fog, or possibly lower ceilings could develop during the overnights/early mornings. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on both Sunday and Monday, but showers and thunderstorms may lead to brief restrictions either afternoon or evening. Winds will be light out of the south on both Sunday and Monday. && .MARINE... Some brief marginal advisory level gusts occurred on the wider waters earlier but appear to be diminishing. Otherwise, light background winds are expected today through Saturday. Prevailing direction will start southwesterly but become southeasterly over the next few days. With the light flow, local variations will occur. The main threat will come from gusty thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, but overall that threat should be more scattered in nature compared to Tuesday and Wednesday. Sub-SCA conditions are expected over the waters on both Sunday and Monday, with light southerly winds both days. Thunderstorms may be possible during the afternoon and evening hours, potentially leading to the issuance of SMWs. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADS NEAR TERM...ADS SHORT TERM...ADS LONG TERM...KJP AVIATION...ADS/KJP MARINE...ADS/KJP