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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KLWX 191336
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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REINFORCING FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TODAY.
MUCH OF THE CWA ALREADY HAS NORTH WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS
STILL LINGER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
PRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY AND PERHAPS EVEN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD ALSO BE DRY...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR PUSHING SOUTH. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CWA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AS WELL TO POP ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION AS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RUNS OF THE WRF-ARW.

ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION WOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AND THE FINAL MOMENTS OF SPRING LOOK TO END ON A FINE NOTE IN THE
MID ATLC AS WELL... HIGH PRES OVR THE NERN U.S. TNGT THRU THU NGT.
DWPTS CONT ON THE DRY SIDE. LOWS IN THE 50S BOTH NGTS W OF
I-95...60S IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY. HIGH TEMPS THU IN THE
L80S.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BUILDS EWD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON FRI AND REMAINS OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND INTO
ERY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SFC...REGION WILL BE SITUATED ON WRN PERIPHERY
OF AN ATLANTIC HIGH. TEMPS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER EACH DAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RETURN FLOW BUT OPPRESSIVE HEAT NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THIS PATTERN.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE RAIN FREE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION CAPPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ISO POP UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS EACH
DAY.

SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS ERY NEXT WEEK AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES.
FOR RIGHT NOW...HAVE CONFINED CHANCE POPS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITHOUT ORGANIZED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION TOO FAR EAST OF THE
MTS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PUSHED SOUTH OF THE HUBS...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. STILL HAVE SOME CLOUDS HOWEVER. SCT-BKN
MVFR MAY LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR THRU ERY NEXT WEEK. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG MAY REDUCE
VSBYS DURING THE ERY MRNG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FOG PRONE
TERMINALS SUCH AS MRB/CHO.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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N/NE WINDS WERE GUSTING AOA 20 KT THROUGH THE MID PORTION OF THE
BAY AND HAVE EXPANDED SCA. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRES OVR THE GRT LKS WL TRACK E TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TDA/TNGT.
ALTHO THE PRES GRAD IS NOT GRT...SUSPECT THAT THE WARM/CHANNELING
DOWN THE CHES BAY COULD BRING GUSTS TO SCA LVLS...WITH THE WATERS
S OF DRUM PT BEING THE MOST LKLY LOCATION. AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED
THERE FOR THE AFTN HRS.

NO PROBS XPCTD ON THE WATERS TNGT THRU THU NGT.

LGT SLY WINDS THRU THE WEEKEND WITH HIPRES IN CONTROL.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ531>534-538-543.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
BPP/WOODY!/JRK