Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 250126 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 926 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north of the area tonight. A cold front will approach from the northwest late Monday. This front may stall across the region during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Showers/thunderstorms have developed this evening ahead of an approaching remnant MCS/shortwave from earlier today. The bulk of the activity so far has been west of the DC Metro back into western MD/VA and eastern WV. Much of the current activity at 9PM, some strong to locally severe, is across northern VA, along the unstable side of a tight CAPE gradient. Across northern VA there exists between 1000-3000 J/KG of MLCAPE, while only 500-1000 J/KG is analyzed closer to the Chesapeake Bay. Bulk shear values are low, about 25 knots or less, but given the high amount of instability in WV/VA, some pulse severe storms remain possible. Showers/thunderstorms will push eastward into DC/Maryland over the next several hours, however given much less instability, severe threat will diminish. Coverage will wane overnight, but until shortwave clears the region, 06-09z, chances remain for showers/storms. Otherwise warm and muggy conditions are expected as dew points rise on return flow. Lows generally in the 70s. Some patchy fog also possible, especially in areas that see rain.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The primary issue for Monday will be the heat, and have issued a Heat Advisory for areas east of the Blue Ridge in addition to the Winchester-Hagerstown corridor. WSW flow will advect warm and moist air into the area, and any lingering mid clouds should clear by midday. Widespread mid to upper 90s are expected with possibly a few 100s. Model consensus for dew points is the low 70s, but there is some spread. If everything came together just right, heat indices could near 110 east of I-95, but it`s likely the temperatures and dew points will balance themselves via mixing to fall short of that mark. Thunderstorms will provide little relief for most of the day east of the mountains, as any forcing remains well to the NW, so most of the storms will be terrain-based. Some of these may gradually propagate to the SE by evening as a cold front approaches from the NW. The better shear will be north of the region, but with moderately high CAPE expected, there could be some stronger storms, especially to the NW. Still have POPs in the chance range as the front gets strung out parallel to the upper flow. However, have lingered storm chances well into the night as the boundary sinks southward. The front will remain stalled across the area on Tuesday. The highest chances of storms will be south of the front, which at this time looks to be south of I-66. Due to weak flow, the storms could be heavy rain producers. Temperatures will back off slightly, but the heat index will still approach 100 across much of the area. Perturbations interacting with the front will keep a threat of storms across southern areas into Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Quasi-stationary front remains near the area Wednesday into next weekend, with temperatures remaining above normal, and at least isolated shower/storm chances possible nearly each day. Some guidance is hinting that ridging will retreat to the south just enough Wednesday and Thursday for H85 temps (and thus sfc temps) to fall a few degrees from the early week highs in the M/U90s. Though...temps in L/M90s are still above normal. The gradual "cooling" trend continues Friday into next weekend, with afternoon highs generally in the U80s/L90s as broad troughing develops and heights lower further. Shortwave moving through the flow could concentrate thunderstorm coverage late in the week...though spatiotemporal placement is uncertain at this forecast range. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Primarily VFR conditions should prevail through the night. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed and will push eastward across the region. Have introduced mention of VCTS at all TAF sites except CHO which should remain south of the convective activity. May also see some brief reductions in visibility with any heavier showers/storms. Some patchy fog also possible, especially if rain occurs. VFR through most of Monday with storm chances increasing (but still scattered) during the late afternoon through evening. Some storms may persist into the night as the front drifts south. This front will stall on Tuesday, with the highest chance of storms near CHO. Frontal boundary remains near the area through the end of the week, with at least afternoon thunderstorms possible. && .MARINE...
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Southerly winds up to about 15 knots this evening will turn southwest on Monday. At this time, winds expected to remain less than 15 kt, although flow may increase some Monday evening. A bigger hazard will be thunderstorms, although the best chance may await until Monday evening, and renew on Tuesday, especially for southern waters. A frontal boundary remains near the waters through the end of the week, with gusty winds possible in any thunderstorms.
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&& .CLIMATE... Here are the record highs and warm lows for the next three days. Monday`s numbers appear to be the most vulnerable. Sunday... DCA...101 in 2010...84 in 2011 BWI...101 in 2010...82 in 2010 IAD... 99 in 2010...78 in 2010 Monday... DCA...100 in 1930...79 in 1965 BWI...100 in 2010...77 in 1887 IAD... 98 in 2010...76 in 1965 Tuesday... DCA...103 in 1930...79 in 1987 BWI...101 in 1940...80 in 1940 IAD....98 in 2012...76 in 2005 && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for DCZ001. MD...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for MDZ003>006-011- 013-014-016>018-503>508. VA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for VAZ028-030-031- 036>040-050>057-501-502-505-506. WV...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for WVZ052-053. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADS NEAR TERM...ADS/MM SHORT TERM...ADS LONG TERM...MSE AVIATION...ADS/MM/MSE MARINE...ADS/MM/MSE CLIMATE...WFO LWX

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