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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KLWX 261608
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1108 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED HEADLINES...HAVE CANCELED ALL EXCEPT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MD WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERS. HOWEVER IMPACTS ARE PROBABLY
MINIMAL AND THE REST CAN EXPIRE ON TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE VA/NC SHORE THIS MORNING. MDT/HEAVIER
BANDS OF SNOW ARE NOW RAPIDLY EXITING SOUTHERN MD WITH SOME
LIGHTER SNOW LAGGING BEHIND. THIS WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING SOME LIGHT SHALLOW SNOW...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NONE. SOME SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COMMA HEAD OF THE LOW WILL SCRAPE ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE
AS WELL.

A FEW BREAKS/THINNING OF THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PLENTIFUL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT AT
LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES SNOW SHOWERS
WITH COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS
BY LATE AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST TEMPERATURE TRENDS...HIGHS MAY
NEED TO BE RAISED A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NRN STREAM TROF AXIS WL APPROACH AREA TNGT...BUT WL BE SHEARING OUT.
HWVR...THE COMBO OF PVA/UPR JET/MSTR PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE
SHSN OR FLURRIES CUD FALL AT JUST ABT ANY TIME. DONT BELIEVE IT
WILL...BUT STILL NEED TO MENTION POTL IN FCST. USING CHC POPS TO DO
SO FOR TNGT...AND SCHC FOR TMRW. THE WRN UPSLP AREAS WL BENEFIT THE
MOST BY THIS PTTN...BUT THAT SETUP WL BE MITIGATED BY A NEARLY FRZN
OVER LK ERIE. THEREFORE...MSTR WL BE IN SHORT SUPPLY. ONLY HV LIFT
FM UPSLP FOR PCPN POTL...WHICH WL CUT BACK TTLS.

OVERALL...ENVIRONMENT FOR PCPN WL BECOME LESS FVRBL BY FRI AS SFC
HIPRES BEGINS TO BUILD FM THE GRTLKS. STILL NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMP FCSTS. MIN-T TEENS AND LWR 20S...MAXT MID 20S-MID 30S. IMPACT
OF CAA MOST NOTABLE IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY. FCST MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY ARE IN
THE UPPER 20S. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY AND
RETURN FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO MOVE EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW 30S BY MONDAY MORNING SO A
PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LITTLE RELIEF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE NEXT LARGE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MAY BECOME WEDGED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE MID-WESTERN
STATES AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL ALLOW WARM MOIST AIR TO
OVERRUN THE COLDER SURFACE. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN WINTRY MIX TO CHANGE TO RAIN.&&

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN AT THE TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING WITH
IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF VFR POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A LOT OF LLVL MSTR WL BE LEFT BHD...ENHANCED
BY AN APPROACHING TROF AXIS. THEREFORE...MADE LATER STAGES OF THE
FCST MORE PESSIMISTIC...BY KEEPING MVFR CIGS. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT
VFR CONDS WL RETURN IN FULL TIL SOMETIME ON FRI.

REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON THE
WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

WNDS WL BE RATHER LIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TNGT...BUT MAY PICK
UP AGAIN IN NW FLOW AS TROF AXIS ARRIVES TMRW. WL KEEP WINDS BLO SCA
LVLS ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT TO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND RETURN FLOW
WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ013-014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/HTS
MARINE...ADS/HAS/HTS