Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 310744 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 344 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE TODAY. A TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REFOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY...AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SFC HIPRES REMAINS JUST OFF THE DELMARVA/CAROLINA COAST. SLY FLOW PTTN EXISTS THRU H5...AS EVIDENCED BY DRIFT OF EXTENSIVE CLDCVR. SPOTTY LGT RETURNS NOTED FM LWX 88D...BUT FM CIGS AOA 10K FT THESE ARE SPRINKLES AT BEST. ECHOES ENTERING SSIDE VA MAY BE A LTL BIT MORE THAN THAT. BRINGING CHC PCPN TO CENTRAL FOOTHILLS/SHEN VLY DURING THE MRNG COMMUTE. SCHC SHRA OR SCT SPRINKLES ELSW. FORCING FEATURES EXIST FOR PCPN DURING THE DAYTIME /LLVL CONFLUENCE ACRS NRN CWFA...PASSAGE OF H5 TROF AXIS TO THE NE...AND EJECTION OF PVA FM THE SW/...BUT ITS ALL SCT AND DISORGANIZED. FURTHER...ADVCTN OF LLVL MSTR STRUGGLES /ALL CLD SEEMS TO BE MID DECK PER RH PROFILE/ MAKING SUBSTANTIVE PCPN UNLKLY. HWVR...CLDCVR SHUD CONT TO BE FAIRLY SOLID INTO THE AFTN. MEAN LYR RH NOT THAT SATD...SO WUD ANTICIPATE SOME GLIMPSES OF SUN. THE UPR TROF WL CROSS MID-LT AFTN...ABANDONING A POCKET OF LWR HGTS IN THE OHVLY. THE RESULTANT FLOW PTTN SHUD PROMOTE THINNING OF THE CLD DECK. WL BRING CLRG SKIES INTO CWFA FM N TO S...AND CARRY A MOCLR NGT. AREA WL BE IN A LOCAL MIN WHERE INSTBY MAINLY ABSENT. THUS AM KEEP PCPN AS JUST SHRA /SPRINKLES ONCE AGN THE BETTER BET/ IN SCHC-CHC POPS. SIMLR TO THE OUTCOME ON SUN...CLDS WL INHIBIT WARMING. MAXT WL BE FAIRLY SIMLR...MID-UPR 80S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ALTHO THERE WL BE A CUTOFF LOW WANDERING ARND THE OHVLY /AND SOME GDNC SUGGESTING A CSTL SFC LOW MAY DVLP OFF THE CAROLINAS/...THE RE- EMERGENCE OF RDGG WL BE THE MAIN WX PLAYER LOCALLY. THEREFORE THE SUN AND WARMTH WL DOMINATE. SHUD BE ABLE TO GET CLOSER TO FULL SUN TEMPS...MARKING A 90 DEG DAY FOR MOST AREAS. SUBSEQUENTLY...HV A BETTER CHC AT REACHING CNVCTV TEMPS. WL NEED THE BOOST FROM TRRN CIRCULATIONS...AND HV RESTRICTED 20-30 POPS TO THE SWRN CWFA. TUE NGT MIN-T WL OFFER A HVY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE FM MON NGT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY RIDE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER WITH INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH BUT THERE IS CONSENSES THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OR CLOSE BY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS BY THURSDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEG ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS MAY RESULT IN DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE NE HALF OF THE REGION. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FLGT RESTRICTIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THE VALID TAF PD. SSWLY FLOW AOB 10 KT WL BRING PLENTY OF CLDCVR THO. CIGS MAINLY MID DECK. PCPN WIDELY SCTD AND LGT. IMPACT TOO LOW TO MENTION. SKIES WL CLR TNGT AS WIND DROP TO BLO 5 KT AND VEER WLY. SINCE RADL COOLING BETTER FOG BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN. ATTM BEST CHC CHO/MRB. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...VFR. && .MARINE... DROPPED SCA AS WNDS BLO THRESHOLD. SLY FLOW CONTS THIS MRNG...BUT WL BECOME MORE SWLY THIS AFTN-EVNG. CLDS AND WK PRES PTTN WL KEEP MOST SUSTAINED SPDS NEAR 10 KT. MUCH LESS OF A CHC AT CHANNELING LT TNGT THRU TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE WATERS WED-FRI. A SFC TROUGH MAY FORM CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT BUT THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HTS NEAR TERM...HTS SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...HAS AVIATION...HTS/HAS MARINE...HTS/HAS

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