Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 121438 AAA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1038 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the area this evening and become stationary across the Carolinas early in the week. Weak high pressure builds over the area Sunday and holds through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Cdfnt currently extends from just west of BUF southwest to along the OH river. Complicated factor for severe potential today is widespread low clouds across northern MD which appear somewhat thick based on different GOES-16 RGBs. 0-6km shear is a little stronger than yesterday based on the 12Z IAD sounding. Air aloft is a little cooler too with -10C at h5. Best chance for t-storms appears to be in the 4-8PM time frame.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Cold front crosses the area tonight with PoPs ending by 2am. Cold front persists south of the area through the middle of the week. Near or below normal temperatures through Monday as high pressure builds to the north. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A short wave in the southern stream looks to be crossing southern VA Tuesday morning. Precipitation should be ending by midday. High pressure should move over the region for midweek. The next chance for rain should be Thursday night into Friday as another short wave moves onto the east coast in what is unusually fast zonal flow for mid August. Highs will be in the 80s, lows in the 60s - about normal for this time of the year. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Rain with embedded scattered thunderstorms again today as a cold front approaches the DC metros before crossing tonight. Tranquil/VFR behind the cold front Sunday and Monday. There will be a chance of rain/degraded ceilings Monday night/early Tuesday. && .MARINE... South flow generally 15 knots today ahead of a cold front that crosses tonight. High pressure builds north of the area Sunday and Monday. SCA conditions not expected Monday or Tuesday. Rain possible MOnday night. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Latest forecasts keeps water levels below minor flooding since the flow will be weakening a bit...but it will be close during the high tide cycle near Straits Point this evening. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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