Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KLWX 261832
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
232 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A dry cold front will move through the area this
evening. High pressure will build tonight through early Sunday.
Another cold front will move through the area middle of next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...Ridge of high pressure surface and
aloft will build over the area through early Sun largely
suppressing convective development. Fair wx cumulus expected to
dissipate overnight with clear skies expected Sat as vertically
stacked high pressure center results in strong subsidence over
the area. Could be some patchy light fog at Charlottesville and
the Shenandoah valley. Continued hot with temps in the low 90s,
but with lower humidity.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...Latest GFS
suggests some increase in moisture with some light showers over
the mtns Sun as winds turn more easterly. Think this is largely
overdone given vertically stacked high pressure center over the
area resulting in strong subsidence. Will downplay precip potential.
Hot again with temps in the low 90s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Ridge of high pressure will
begin to weaken Mon with a dissipating front to the north and
west. The weakening ridge and increasing warmth and instability
may result in isolated showers and t-storms over the mtns. Heights
will fall more sharply Tue and Wed as a pair of nrn stream
disturbances move across. The stronger of these will help push a
cdfnt through the area Wed night bringing better precip potential
to the area Wed afternoon. Trough pushes east Thu with high
pressure building again Thu through the Labor Day weekend. Hotter
and more humid Mon through Wed with temps in the mid 90s and heat
indices above 100F. Much cooler Thu and Fri behind front with
temps in the mid 80s.
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MVFR fog at KCHO and
KMRB new few nights, otherwise VFR conditions with no wx through
Mon. Precip chances increase Tue and Wed with showers/t-storms
possible especially Wed.
.MARINE...Winds increase somewhat Sat and Sun afternoons, but
will likely remain below SCA criteria. T-storms possible Wed
afternoon with a frontal passage.
.CLIMATE...Record high still possible only at IAD today. So far,
Ranking of summer 2016 in terms of average temperature (JUN 1 - AUG 25)
Site RankAverage Temperature
DC 3 (tie with 2012)80.4
Balt 19 (tie with 2 other years) 77.2
IAD 3 77.2