Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 261832 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 232 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry cold front will move through the area this evening. High pressure will build tonight through early Sunday. Another cold front will move through the area middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...Ridge of high pressure surface and aloft will build over the area through early Sun largely suppressing convective development. Fair wx cumulus expected to dissipate overnight with clear skies expected Sat as vertically stacked high pressure center results in strong subsidence over the area. Could be some patchy light fog at Charlottesville and the Shenandoah valley. Continued hot with temps in the low 90s, but with lower humidity. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...Latest GFS suggests some increase in moisture with some light showers over the mtns Sun as winds turn more easterly. Think this is largely overdone given vertically stacked high pressure center over the area resulting in strong subsidence. Will downplay precip potential. Hot again with temps in the low 90s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Ridge of high pressure will begin to weaken Mon with a dissipating front to the north and west. The weakening ridge and increasing warmth and instability may result in isolated showers and t-storms over the mtns. Heights will fall more sharply Tue and Wed as a pair of nrn stream disturbances move across. The stronger of these will help push a cdfnt through the area Wed night bringing better precip potential to the area Wed afternoon. Trough pushes east Thu with high pressure building again Thu through the Labor Day weekend. Hotter and more humid Mon through Wed with temps in the mid 90s and heat indices above 100F. Much cooler Thu and Fri behind front with temps in the mid 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MVFR fog at KCHO and KMRB new few nights, otherwise VFR conditions with no wx through Mon. Precip chances increase Tue and Wed with showers/t-storms possible especially Wed. && .MARINE...Winds increase somewhat Sat and Sun afternoons, but will likely remain below SCA criteria. T-storms possible Wed afternoon with a frontal passage. && .CLIMATE...Record high still possible only at IAD today. So far, 93. Ranking of summer 2016 in terms of average temperature (JUN 1 - AUG 25) Site RankAverage Temperature DC 3 (tie with 2012)80.4 Balt 19 (tie with 2 other years) 77.2 IAD 3 77.2 && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...LFR AVIATION...LFR MARINE...LFR CLIMATE...RCM/ABW

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