Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 251351 AAB AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 951 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will build south of the region into the weekend. Low pressure may affect the region late in the weekend and into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Ridge of high pressure sfc and aloft will hold off for another 24 hrs keeping area warm and dry. Temperatures today will be warmer in the mid to upper 80s. Some remnant showers from KY convection could make into the Appalachian region tonight. POPs 20% or less.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure offshore Thursday will maintain light southerly flow and increasing moisture with dewpoints reaching the mid 60s. Diurnally driven thunderstorms expected first in terrain with chances near the Bay from breeze boundaries. It may take awhile for activity to develop on the Piedmont. Likely PoPs for the complex terrain with chances east given expected popup activity. The warming trend may level off Thursday with increased clouds and moisture despite the sly flow. Increasing moisture trend continues Friday with a Bermuda High. Expect 70F dewpoints and more scattered convective thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Summer is almost here..and it becomes more difficult to find noticeable features in the models as temperature/pressure gradients become weaker. Saturday looks warm as a sub-tropical ridge influences the Mid Atlantic: highs in the mid 80s are expected. Perhaps isolated thunderstorms could develop over the mountains in the afternoon/early evening. Upper level moisture from a developing disturbance off the SC coast could bring increased clouds into the region Sunday. Highs in the lower 80s. Again a chance of afternoon/evening showers/thuderstorms. The moisture flow is expected to continue during Memorial Day/Tuesday. Still - by no means is the holiday looking to be a washout. Scattered showers/storms will be possible with considerable cloud cover. Super Blend has high temps in the mid 70s while GFS keeps them in the low 80s. This will be somewhat dependent on cloud cover. The same is true for Tuesday. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected through tonight under high pressure today. Light sly flow and diurnal thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. ifr conds expected in heaviest activity. VFR conditions expected to continue Saturday. Main problem Sunday is the potential for afternoon showers/thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Light westerly flow becomes southerly this afternoon and persists through Friday as high pressure over the area this morning shifts east to Bermuda by Friday. No problems foreseen on the waters Saturday or Sunday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...BAJ LONG TERM...ABW AVIATION...LFR/ABW MARINE...LFR/ABW

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