Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 161923
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
223 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build into the region tonight
through Friday. A strong cold front will cross the area late
Saturday night. High pressure will build to the south of the
region late Sunday into the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...Except for two mesonets one at
Hagerstown and another at Tucker county WV, wind gusts have
failed to reach 40 kt this afternoon over the mtns, so we`ll
probably be cancelling the wind advzy earlier. High pressure
will build over the area tonight into Fri with winds gradually
diminishing. Clear and seasonably chilly with lows in the mid
30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Clear and cool Fri under high pressure. High clouds begin to
increase late Fri night in warm air advection pattern. Showers
will develop Sat afternoon as moisture deepens in strong
southerly flow. Strong cold front will blast through the area
late Sat night with precip ending by Sun morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Interaction between a departing strong cold front to the east and a
building area of high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will yield
some gusty west-northwest to northwest winds. Upslope snow showers
in the higher Appalachians in the west could result in a quick inch
or two of snow. Temperatures will be chilly.

High pressure will build into the region Sunday night through Monday
night. Dry conditions expected with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees
below average each period.

The high pressure will move offshore Tuesday to allow for a strong
cold front to plunge southeastward into the region Tuesday night.
The front should be a dry front with the lack of moisture present.
However, we can`t rule out a couple of upslope snow showers Tuesday
night.

High pressure will build into the region Wednesday through Thursday.
Temperatures will remain chilly for this time in November with dry
conditions and some sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Winds up to 25 kt through sunset then diminishing to 10 kt or
less. P6SM Skc tonight and Fri. Winds increase again Saturday
afternoon and night with rain showers expected ahead of a strong
cold front.

VFR conditions possible Sunday through Monday night. Winds west-
northwest around 15 knots with gusts 25 to 30 knots Sunday. Winds
west-northwest around 10 knots gusts 15 to 20 knots Sunday night.
Winds becoming west around 10 knots gusts 15 knots Monday. Winds
becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will strengthen over the waters rest of today and into
this evening as gradient tightens and CAA increases. Strongest
winds will occur around midnight and begin to gradually weaken
late tonight and Fri. Winds becoming light and variable Fri
afternoon and evening and begin to strengthen again late Fri
night and Sat. Gale conditions possible Sat afternoon and night.
Solid SCA conditions expected on Sunday.

Small craft advisories possible Sunday night. Winds west-
northwest 10 to 15 knots gusts up to 20 knots. Small craft
advisories possible Monday. Winds west 10 to 15 knots gusts up
to 20 knots. No marine hazards Monday night. Winds becoming
southwest around 10 knots.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Minor coastal flooding occurred at Straits Point earlier and is
expected to occur at Annapolis shortly. Water levels will begin
to subside this evening as NW winds strengthen.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Friday
for ANZ530>532-535- 536-538>540. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM
EST Friday for ANZ533-534-537- 541>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...LFR/KLW
MARINE...LFR/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR



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