Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 200726 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 326 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP USHER THAT HIGH OUT. ONE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA...PAST CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND DURING MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS...INCLUDING SOME LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND CATOCTINS WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE RIDGE THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS THE EAST FLOW WEAKENS AS THE HIGH SLIPS AWAY...EXPECT ANY MORNING OVERCAST TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY AND A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT SHOULD IN TURN FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY OR PERHAPS SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE EVENING.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE WEEK AHEAD SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOL...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIPRES BLDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. MAY BE A LTL BIT BRZY MON DUE TO CAA/H5 TROF AXIS DROPPING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AFTER THAT...UPR HGTS RISE BUT AREA WL REMAIN ON THE ERN THEN SRN SIDE OF THE SFC RDG. CONSEQUENCES WL BE CNDN FLOW TO BE REPLACED BY MARINE FLOW BY WED. CUD BE DEALING W/ A LTL MORE CLDCVR FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK... SPCLY E OF I-95. MAXT LWR-MID 70S THRUT THE PD. MIN-T 40S TO LWR/MID 50S...WITH OVNGT TEMPS MODERATING SLGTLY DUE TO WATER TEMPS...WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LWR 70S.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS DRAGGED OFF THE ATLANTIC BY EAST FLOW...ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DCA WILL BE BATTLING POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANY LOWERED VSBYS AND CIGS SHOULD BREAK THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. VFR MON-WED UNDER HIPRES.
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&& .MARINE...
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STRONGER WINDS LATE FRIDAY HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NW FLOW SHUD PROVIDE A GOOD MIXED PROFILE MON. MAY HV SOME SCA GUSTS AT THAT TIME. BYD THAT...HIPRES WL BE BLDG ATOP MARINE AREA RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING LIGHTER. FLOW SHUD BE VEERING ELY BY WED.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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HIGH LUNAR TIDES AND EAST WINDS ARE CREATING HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES. AT THIS POINT HIGHER ANAMOIES ARE IN THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY. AS WINDS BECOME MORE SE OVER THE WATERS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THE NEXT SEVERAL TIDES. MOST CONCERNING AT THE MOMENT IS DC WATERFRONT TIDE GAUGE WHICH COULD POSSIBLY HIT MINOR FLOODING WITH THIS MORNINGS TIDE. THE REST ARE FINE FOR NOW.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...CAS NEAR TERM...CAS SHORT TERM...CAS LONG TERM...HTS AVIATION...CAS/HTS MARINE...CAS/HTS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CAS

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