Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 241434 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1034 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN STATES DOWN THE COAST...REACHING THE DELMARVA TONIGHT...AND REMAINING THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST...CAUSING SOME SUNSHINE ALONG WITH DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIPRES WL BE DOMINATING WX FEATURE SFC AND ALOFT THRU MON NGT. THE SFC RDGG WL EMINATE FM THE NE. H7-5 RDGG WL COME FROM THE LARGE DOME TO OUR SW. THIS TAG TEAM SHUD MEAN MOCLR NGTS AND A SUNNY OR MOSUN DAY MON. THE DIURNAL FLOW WL STILL BE ELY...BUT XPCT DCPLG EACH NGT. MON MAXT MAYBE A CPL DEGF HIER THAN TDA. AS DEWPTS DROPPING BLO 60F...HV DONE LIKEWISE TO MIN-T OUTSIDE OF THE CITIES EACH NGT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT THE SURFACE LEADING TO DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WILL BE OFF THE FL COAST MOVING NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME. THE TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE NORTH AND THAN EAST STAYING AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS SHOULD HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE AND MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE WELL OFF THE OBX COAST THURSDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE NEAR LABRADOR MOVES EASTWARD. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME FORCING IS WEAK ALONG THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURS NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TIME TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MVFR VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM BR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TUE-WED...VFR. THU...MAINLY VFR THO MAY BE BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS INVOF TSRA.
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&& .MARINE...
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NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT TO SMITH POINT. ELY FLOW WL BE MAINTAINED THRU MON NGT...10-15 KT TDA AND AOB 10 KT TNGT THU MON NGT. WNDS BCMG SLY MIDWEEK...BUT SPDS REMAINING BLO 10 KT.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE FLOW PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF TIDE CYCLES...MEANING TIDAL ISSUES WILL LINGER. THE PM TIDE THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY...BUT WATER LEVELS WILL BE NEAR MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING SINCE THAT WILL BE THE HIGHER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICAL NORMS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR BOTH TIDE CYCLES THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY TO ST MARYS...AND FOR THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER NEAR WASHINGTON DC AND ALEXANDRIA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ANOMALIES FOR PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY AROUND NATIONAL HARBOR AND FOR BALTIMORE AND HARFORD COUNTIES...BUT WATER LEVELS MAY REMAIN BELOW THE HIGHER MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR THESE AREAS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WERE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS FOR TUE MORNING EITHER.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ017-018. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HTS NEAR TERM...BJL/HTS SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...HAS AVIATION...BJL/HTS MARINE...BJL/HTS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL

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