Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 261916 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 316 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OHIO. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 18Z...STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER WITH A SWATH OF STRATOCU NORTH ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN SWRN VA WILL BUILD INSTABILITY REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THERE AND MOVE INTO OUR SWRN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS STORMS RIDE THIS FRONTAL ZONE. OPEN UPR TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER IN/KY THIS EVENING AND DRIFT NE ACROSS OH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...STALLING OVER ERIE PA SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED/OCCLUDED. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT LATE TONIGHT SOUTH OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. SELY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL TOPOGRAPHICALLY LIFT OVER THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...ENHANCING RAINFALL ON THE ERN SLOPES. THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY. SIMPLY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT ADDED TO THE MIX IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH. PLENTY OF DYNAMICS FROM THE LOW TO THE NW. SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 2 WAS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE CWA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT 2AM TONIGHT THROUGH 2AM SUNDAY MORNING. WORST HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. PARTICULAR THREAT WOULD BE IF THE FRONT WERE TO STALL...EVEN FOR JUST A FEW HOURS. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WITH ML CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR 40 KT OR MORE. ACTIVE DAY TO SAY THE LEAST. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY DEPEND ON WARM FRONT PROGRESSION. CLOUDS AND RAIN KEEP MID 70S NWRN HALF OF THE CWA AND UPR 70S LOW 80S SERN HALF. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WLY FLOW AND DRY SLOT CUTTING OFF PRECIP. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S INLAND... AROUND 70 URBAN/NEAR SHORE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... STEADY RAIN CLEARS AREA BY SUN MORNING...AS COLD FRONT PUSHES TO OUR SE AND SCOURS OUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. REST OF SUN LOOKS TO BE BREEZY WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND LOW DEWPOINTS (U50S). NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW WRAPAROUND SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST AND ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. HOWEVER...ANY ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION BEYOND WHAT IS RECEIVED SAT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MON LEADS TO ANOTHER FAIRLY BENIGN WX DAY WITH TEMPS INCHING CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMS AND LITTLE-TO-NO CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. RETURN FLOW RECOMMENCES DURING THE AFTN AS SFC LOW APPROACHES...THIS WILL ACT TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DEWPOINTS BY LATE DAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESS LEAVES THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES... BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIP THE REGION FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUES. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WED EVENING AND STALLS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRI. KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS THESE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION. LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY WILL BE WED. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S AND THE LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S INTO THE LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT DRIFTS NORTH FROM SRN VA. IFR AVIATION CONDS MOST IF NOT ALL DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS. HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AFTER THE FRONT UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SEVERE... TORNADO...AND FLOOD THREAT. WLY FLOW COULD BE GUSTY (20 TO 25 KT) IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY WITH DIMINISHING WIND. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON NIGHT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL TUES DUE TO PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS. && .MARINE... SELY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT WARRANTING AN SCA FOR MOST WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCA FOR ALL WATERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS/WATER SPOUTS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT OVERSPREADS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES. BREEZY ON SUN WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH MON AND BECOME VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS PSBL TUES DUE TO PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WATER LEVELS NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS SELY FLOW DEVELOPS AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDWEST. A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BEHIND IT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT SENSITIVE SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WIDESPREAD MINOR EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. && .CLIMATE... WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD AT BWI WITH 9.98 INCHES WITH FOUR FULL DAYS TO GO. PREVIOUS JUNE RECORD WAS FROM 1972 WHICH HAD 9.95. MOST OF THE RAIN IN JUNE 1972 WAS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE AGNES. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR DCZ001. MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016-501>508. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-050>056-501>508. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506. MARINE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ535-538. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ531>534-536>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-535. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ NEAR TERM...BAJ SHORT TERM...MSE LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...BAJ/IMR/MSE MARINE...BAJ/IMR/MSE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ CLIMATE...BAJ

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