Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 171344 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 944 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPPER TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH HAS LED TO SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA...BUT LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THEY ARE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED WITH TIME. INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH WILL BECOME LESS NOTICEABLE LATER TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER WITH PEAK HEATING SCATTERED CUMULUS MAY REPLACE THE MID CLOUDS FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...LEANING CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE. RADL COOLING TNGT SHUD BE NEARLY IDEAL...AS HIPRES NEARLY OVHD. WNDS WL BE LGT AND CLDS SHUD BE LESS THAN THE CURRENT TIME. WENT ON THE LOW END OF MOS GDNC...WHICH ONCE AGN OFFERS LOWS IN THE 50S W OF I-95...AND 40S IN THE APLCNS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... SFC HIPRES MVS OFFSHR FRI...AS SRN STREAM ENERGY EJECTS EWD. THE DAY STARTS OUT MOSUN AND DRY...AND IN THE BALT-WASH METRO AREA IT SHUD CLOSE OUT THE DAY THE SAME WAY. NOT SO SURE THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR THE CENTRAL SHEN VLY/CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...AND THE SRN PART OF THE PTMC HIGHLANDS. THE VORT/WAA WL BE PROVIDING DECENT UPGLIDE...W/ THE TRRN PROVIDING A LTL LIFT OF ITS OWN. WHILE CAPE/LI MEAGER...MID LVL LAPSE RATES RESPECTABLE. CERTAINLY CLDS WL BUILD THRU THE DAY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...AND THINK THERE CUD BE A FEW LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA S OF LUA AND W OF CHO. AS THE THEN NEG-TILTED TROF NEARS AREA FRI NGT...LIFT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...AND RISK OF SHRA/TSRA SPREADS EWD TO HGR-JYO-EZF BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING LOST. GIVEN AMPLE CLDCVR AND MSTR ADVCTN...MIN-T SHUD BE QUITE A BIT HIER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPR TROUGH AND NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DATE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING AN ONSHORE FLOW EAST...BUT SLY FLOW OUT WEST. THIS ADDED STABILITY EAST LOOKS TO GENERALLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND EAST. SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A LITTLE EAST...THOUGH MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP REMAINS OVER THE WEST...LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDER WERE KEPT IN THE WESTERN ZONES. PATTERN THEN BECOMES RATHER BLOCKED...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE COLLISION OF TWO SYSTEMS LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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STILL HAVE FEW-SCT MID CLOUDS AT 13Z...LIKELY BECOMING SCT CU-SCU FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH BASES AROUND 5K FT. CLDS DSPTG AFDK. VFR FRI...ALTHO CLDS MAY OVERSPREAD CHO AND PERHAPS MRB. SCT SHRA /OR TSRA?/ LATE DAY-ELY EVNG THESE TERMINALS...PERHAPS LEADING TO BRIEF MVFR VSBY. MORE LKLY STILL JUST VFR. HIER CONFIDENCE IN VFR ACRS METROS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY. ASSOCIATED STORMS LOOK TO BE WEST OF THE TERMINALS. EAST TO SOUTH LIGHT WINDS.
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&& .MARINE...
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NW FLOW CONTINUES TODAY...LIKELY 10 KT OR LESS AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIPRES CRESTS TNGT... PROVIDING LGT WNDS. FLOW GRDLY VEERS ELY FRI AFTN-EVE...WHILE REMAINING UNDER 10 KT. NELY FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD HAVE 10 TO 15 KT GUSTS...WITH MOST SUSTAINED WIND 10 KT OR BELOW. ELY ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HTS NEAR TERM...BPP/HTS SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...BAJ AVIATION...BPP/BAJ/HTS MARINE...BPP/BAJ/HTS

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