Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
FXUS61 KLWX 141342
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
942 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016
High pressure will move into the region through Saturday before
moving south of the area Sunday. A cold front is expected to
remain north of the region during the first half of next week
leading to above average temperatures.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure over New York State this morning, with the ridge
axis extending south to the Mid-Atlantic. Strong subsidence
clearly evident on 12z LWX RAOB, which likely is a factor in
preventing the few patches of fog in the Shenandoah Valley and
Potomac Highland valleys from burning away. Am still hopeful that
the fog will at least lift by 10am. Further, the first few visible
sattelite pictures of the day reveal what a small area is actually
affected. Have no plans on a Dense Fog Advisory.
The high center will drift east to southern New England through
tonight. The pressure gradient slackens around midday with gusts
ending and flow becoming light. Forecast generally on track: Sunny
with high temps in the mid 60s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Clear and calm tonight under high pressure with frost possible in
interior sections mainly near the Mason-Dixon line.
The surface high settles south to the central Mid-Atlantic coast
through Sunday with sunshine (at least on Saturday) and a warming
trend. A cold front moves along the St. Lawrence valley Sunday.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The big story next week will be the warmer-than-normal
temperatures that can be expected as high pressure migrates to the
south of the forecast area. Normally in mid October highs will be
in the upper 60s but we expect to see highs in the 75-80 degree
range Monday through Wednesday. Precipitation chances will be very
Both Euro and GFS are implying that an upper level trough could
swing into the Mississippi Valley towards the end of next week.
This would likely be our next chance for rain.
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail for the TAF sites through this weekend.
Any northerly gusts end by late morning. High pressure settles
over the area this weekend with tranquil/sunny weather.
Aside from the potential for overnight fog no other weather
problems are foreseen Monday-Tuesday.
Northerly/northwesterly flow through today with gusts around 20
knots tapering off from north to south through the midday. Small
Craft Advisory headlines updated accordingly. High pressure
settles over the area this weekend with tranquil/sunny conditions
Winds are expected to be below SCA values Monday-Tuesday.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ534-