Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 271940 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 340 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY WITH WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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TORNADO WATCH FOR STAFFORD SOUTH AND SRN MD WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY SLOWLY MOVING EAST FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THE WARM FRONT IS ROUGHLY FROM S-CNTRL MD BACK DOWN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...THEN OVER TO WV. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH AND THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT WILL EXPAND NW WITH THE WARM FRONT. AS OF 19Z...LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING NE OVER OHIO AND THE WARM FRONT FROM SRN MD SAGGING SW TO CNTRL VA. LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT DRIFTS NE THROUGH THIS EVENING...STALLING TONIGHT OVER NERN OH AS THE STORM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. SBCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG LIFTING NORTH INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INCREASING ACROSS SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THIS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CNTRL MD AND N-CNTRL VA. CURRENT THOUGHT IS SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT WILL EXPAND NORTH TO CNTRL MD. FLASH FLOOD RISK. THE METRO AREAS ARE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE...SO THE DC METRO WAS INCLUDED FIRST IN A WARNING. SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS WILL BE BASED ON EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED TO COVER MANY AREAS. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING AND CROSSES MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S INLAND...AROUND 70F NEAR SHORE. WEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS UPR 70S TO LOW 80S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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ANY WRAP-AROUND/ UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WILL END EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE FOUND IN ITS WAKE...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S EXCEPT IN THE URBAN AREAS AND COASTAL PLAIN. DUE TO THE EXTENT OF THE P- GRAD...WL STILL HV A GOOD WIND FIELD INTO THE EVENING HRS BEFORE SUBSIDENCE AND DIURNAL TRENDS RESULT IN SLACKENING WINDS. MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. KEPT SKIES MOSUN DUE TO THE DRY AMS AND SUBSIDENCE. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO AT THE VERY LEAST INCREASING CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT...MADE NO CHGS TO POP FCST...WHICH HAS CONFINED POPS WEST OF I- 81 OVERNIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW MOVES OVER THE CWA TUES AND SLOWLY MOVES AWAY EARLY ON WED. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WED EVE AND PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH ON THURS AND LIFT ON FRI. SURFACE TROUGH MAY IMPACT THE REGION SAT. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON TSTMS ARE PSBL AS THESE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAYS WILL BE WED AND SAT. THURS PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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IFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM RAIN ACROSS THE DC METROS. TSTMS EXPECTED WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE AREA PARTICULARLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 06Z SUN AFTER A COLD FRONT SHIFTS WIND WEST. WEST WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT SUNDAY IN VFR CONDS. WINDS WILL LINGER INTO SUN EVE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SUB- VFR DUE TO PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY ON TUES.
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&& .MARINE...
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SELY FLOW CONTINUES TO GUST 25 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCA IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS. HEAVY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WATER SPOUT THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO WSW TONIGHT (WITH A BRIEF LULL)...THEN BECOME REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SUN. SCA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES BY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT...AND CHANNELING OVER THE BAY IS POSSIBLE. SCA CONDITIONS PSBL TUES DUE TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS. WED MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH SOME PSBL AFTERNOON TSTMS.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED TONIGHT ON THE PREFERRED HIGH TIDE. SELY FLOW 15 TO 25 KT HAS RAISED WATER DEPARTURES TO AROUND 1.5 FT ON THE BAY AND 2 FT IN THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE WILL SEE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE SITE OF DC/ALEXANDRIA AND ANNAPOLIS WHERE AN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT ON THE PREFERRED HIGH TIDE. CURRENT ADVISORY FOR WRN SHORE OF THE BAY AND DC/ALEXANDRIA FOR THE PREFERRED HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DCZ001. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DCZ001. MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ003>006-011-013- 014-016-501>508. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ017-018. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ011-508. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ014. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ025>031-036>040- 050>056-501>508. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ054. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055- 501>506. MARINE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-538. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534- 537>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-536. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ542. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ538. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ NEAR TERM...BAJ SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...ADS/IMR AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/IMR MARINE...BAJ/ADS/IMR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ

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