Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
FXUS61 KLWX 171414 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1014 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017
A cold front has moved into central Virginia. High pressure
builds over the area tonight through early Wednesday. The next
cold front will cross the area Thursday night. High pressure
builds over New England for the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cdfnt has pushed south of the CWA into cntrl VA. Showers
continue behind the front across ncntrl MD, ern WV and nrn VA.
Expect shra activity to shift south of the District by 18Z and
south of Charlottesville after 21Z. A quarter inch of rain is
possible with the heavier showers. Threat of thunder looks very
minimal and have lowered risk to slight chance mainly Nelson
county in the vicinity of front.
The cold front shifts south of the area tonight with Canadian high
pressure spilling south along the Mid-Atlantic. Cool with min temps
in the 40s inland and mid 50s near the water (water temps are upper
50s to low 60s.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A surface high pressure ridge shifts east across the area Tuesday.
An onshore flow limits temperatures, so mid to upper 60s east of I-
95 and low 70s in interior locales.
Low pressure weakens as it shifts east from the northern Great Lakes
Wednesday enhancing southerly flow over the Mid-Atlantic. Little in
the way of forcing, so will lower PoPs Wednesday from likelies over
most of the area to chance.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure is expected to track across PA Thursday. This will
place the Mid Atlantic on the warm side of the fronts. This in
turn will allow temperatures to climb to around 80. This will be
the more unstable side of the front as well, and showers and
thunderstorms will be possible. At this time coverage seems like
it will be scattered at best. Severe threat looks low as well.
The low is expected to push off the NJ coast Friday morning and
an associated cold front will sink into the Mid Atlantic.
Showers will be possible overnight into early Friday morning,
then diminishing by afternoon. Lows Thursday night in the upper
50s, highs Friday 70-75.
High pressure over New England will nose down into the region
Friday night. After seeing high minimum temperatures records
broken on Sunday Friday night will feel downright chilly with
lows in the 40s, possibly upper 30 in some spots.
The upcoming weekend looks on the cool side as the high to the
north and low pressure moving into the Ohio Valley create a cold
air damming situation for the forecast area. Convective chances
will be nil. Sunday looks to have chances for rain though -
cloudy and cool with periods of light rain summarizes how things
look six days out.
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers through 18Z at all terminals except at KCHO where
showers could persist through about 21Z. No flying restrictions
expected although OVC040-050 cigs expected.
High pressure/vfr tonight and Tuesday. Southerly flow then through
Thursday and Friday look primarily to be VFR. The will be a
possibility for showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday but
it is too far out/confidence too low to say there would be any
prolongued period of sub-VFR conditions.
NWly flow 10 to 15 knot behind the cold front, no SCA as of
this time. Flow shifts southerly tonight as high pressure shifts
east. Southerly flow prevails then through Wednesday with low
pressure persisting over the northern Mid- Atlantic.
SCA possible Thursday.