Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 240040
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
840 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OUT NEARBY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND GRADUALLY SLACKENING SURFACE
WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY SUNRISE.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST IN FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 30S AND WINDS GO LIGHT
LATE...BUT COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY
FOG ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOO...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AS
DRYING CONDITIONS AND WIND FIELD SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD SUNDAY...BRINGING SUNSHINE
ALONG WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED...SO MIN TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
CHILLY...RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR MONDAY AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN NOTICEABLY WARMER CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH SOME SUNSHINE. A POPUP SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH NEW YORK INTO
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
IN WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...BUT AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT SINCE
MOST OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. A
RETURN FLOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING WARMTH AND
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.

A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FROM
THE NORTH SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TO THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS FROM 5-10 KNOTS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTH BY LATE SUNDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FRONT.
WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
TUESDAY...BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...AND FOR THE THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE BAY
AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL STALL OUT NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FUEL MOISTURE HAS RECOVERED A BIT DUE TO THE RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO
THIS MORNING. VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FOR SUN WITH RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. RH`S
RECOVER SOME MON BUT STILL CRITICAL AND WINDS STRENGTHEN LEADING
TO AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MID WEEK BUT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AREAWIDE AT THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-531-538-
     539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/MM
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BJL/MM/KLW
MARINE...BJL/MM/KLW
FIRE WEATHER...BJL



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