Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 171526
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1126 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front is crossing the area today. A cold front will
approach from the west Friday before passing through Friday
night. Weak high pressure will build into the area for the
weekend before moving offshore early next week. A stronger cold
front will pass through the area during the middle portion of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Fog has dissipated and the warm front is slowly advancing north
back across the region, providing for a warm and humid day.
Partly sunny skies will continue for the time being, but will
likely give way to more clouds than sun this afternoon. Highs
today should reach the upper 80s to around 90F. This combined
with surface dew points in the low 70s will allow for the
development of 1000-1500 J/KG of MLCAPE, especially west of I-95
where warm front will clear first. While CAPE profiles are not
that conducive for widespread strong to severe convection with
tall/skinny CAPE depicted, 0-6KM shear of near 30 knots and the
presence of a warm frontal boundary and its directional shear
along it, may be enough for a few isolated strong to locally
severe thunderstorms. Convection-allowing models differ on
evolution and coverage, but highest threat area appears to be
west of the metros. In addition, precipitable water values
increase markedly as warm front lifts northward, with values
near or exceeding 2" by late in the day. This combined with
11-12K foot warm cloud depths, wet antecedent conditions, and
the potential for slow movement/repeated convection sets up the
possibility for an isolated flood risk as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight, warm and muggy conditions will persist. Convection
from this afternoon may continue to propagate eastward, with
additional scattered development also possible as low level jet
moves towards the region overnight. Potential for heavy rain
will exist with any showers/storms overnight as well. Lows
tonight low to mid 70s. Any breaks in the clouds will also
promote patchy fog development given the high humidity.

Area of low pressure will push into southern Canada on Friday,
with its trailing cold front entering the Mid-Atlantic states
during the day. This will serve as another focus for scattered
showers/thunderstorms during the day Friday. A severe threat
will exist again on Friday, with potentially greater
coverage/more intense storms than today. Temperatures and low
level moisture will surge out ahead of the front, leading to the
development of 1500- 3000 J/KG of MLCAPE, with 30-35 knots of
shear moving overhead. In addition to the severe threat, flash
flooding is also a concern as precipitable water values surge
over 2", possibly exceeding 2.25", and potential for training
convection exists. Highs reach around 90F to the low 90s. With
high dew points, there exists a potential for spotty heat
advisory criteria as well. Convection will push eastward and
gradually wane Friday night.

Model guidance has come into better agreement regarding
progression of the front for Saturday. It now appears more
likely that the front will clear most of the region before
stalling out along the Atlantic coastline and into southeastern
Virginia. This will provide for a drier day Saturday, although a
few isolated- scattered showers/storms are still possible,
mainly near the front, as well as in the higher terrain as an
upper trough moves across later in the day. Highs will still be
in the upper 80s, although dew points will drop back into the
60s behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will remain overhead Sunday...bringing dry
conditions for most areas along with warm conditions. A
downsloping low-level flow along with some sunshine will cause
max temps to range from the mid to upper 80s in northern
Maryland to the lower 90s in central Virginia.

High pressure will slowly move offshore Sunday night through
Monday. A return flow will develop and this will allow for
humidity to increase along with very warm conditions. The
increased humidity may trigger some showers and
thunderstorms. Coverage should be isolated to scattered since
there will not be a strong lifting mechanism. A southerly flow
will continue Tuesday with more warm and humid condtions along
with isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms.

A cold front will approach the area from the north Wednesday
before passing through Wednesday night. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible ahead of the boundary...especially
during the afternoon and evening hours. More warm and humid
conditions will persist ahead of the boundary...but noticeably
cooler and less humid conditions are expected behind the
boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low cigs linger near BWI/MTN, but generally they should break,
with scattered to broken clouds around 5k ft expected this aft.
Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms then develop this
afternoon, possibly lingering into tonight, and some may bring
heavy rain/gusty winds. Some patchy fog and low clouds are
possible again tonight.

Additional showers/thunderstorms are then likely Friday
afternoon/evening with potential additional reductions and gusty
winds. Conditions improve for Saturday.

High pressure will remain over the terminals Sunday. VFR
conditions are likely. The high will move offshore Sunday night
into Monday. Warm advection may bring an MVFR deck of lower
clouds later Sunday night into Monday. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible...but coverage should remain isolated
to scattered.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds will be on the increase later today, tonight, and
through Friday ahead of a frontal system. A Small Craft Advisory
is in effect for portions of the central Chesapeake and lower
Tidal Potomac from late this afternoon and through Friday
evening. Additionally, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible both today and Friday, mainly in the
afternoon/evening, and Special Marine Warnings may be necessary.

High pressure will remain just to the north and west Sunday
while a weak surface trough remains over the waters. Light winds
are expected. The high will move offshore Sunday night into
Monday and a return southerly flow will develop. The southerly
flow will continue through Tuesday. Increased moisture from the
southerly flow may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms...but
coverage should remain isolated to scattered.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated water levels continue this morning. However...the next
high tide will be the lower of the two so no minor flooding is
expected today.

The high tide cycle tonight into early Friday will be the higher
of the two. Also...southerly winds may increase a bit ahead of a
cold front over the Ohio Valley. This may cause minor flooding
for sensitive areas such as Annapolis...Straits Point and
possibly Washington DC. Coastal Flood Advisories may be needed.
The southerly flow will continue through Friday evening before
turning offshore behind the boundary. More minor flooding is
possible with the high tide cycle Friday night into early
Saturday for sensitive areas. Anomalies should decrease later
Saturday due to the offshore flow.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ533-534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...MM/RCM
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/MM/RCM
MARINE...BJL/MM/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/RCM



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