Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KLWX 261906
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
306 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain over the area through the end of the
week. Low pressure may affect the region Memorial Day through
Tuesday. Weak high pressure builds for the middle of next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms til about 01Z tonight in warm moist environment as a
shortwave-trough over the OH valley and associated lee-side trof
move across the area late today. Patchy light fog or mist
overnight. Muggy with lows in the mid 60s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...Additional
height rises and building sfc high pressure Fri and Sat will tend
to limit t-storm coverage Fri and Sat, but heat and instability
will build each day with still a risk of pop-up showers and
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Precipitation chances will increase
Sunday heading into next week as the rain pushes north from a
developing low pressure system impacting the southeast US coast.
Leeward trough sets up Monday and as the upper level energy
associated with the system to the south nudges north, should
expect to see enhancement in the rain across the Mid-Atlantic
Monday and Tuesday. Exact placement of the heavier banding of rain
still uncertain as the GFS tracks further west than the ECWMF.
With the clouds and rain, temperatures will be cooler than this
week`s temps, though still upper 70s to lower 80s.
Models continue to diverge on the solution heading into the middle
of the week concerning the placement of the aforementioned low
pressure system. General consensus does indicate a slow approaching
cold front from the northwest during this time, with ridging
building in aloft holding the front to the north of the area. How
strong the ridge is and thus how far the front makes it will be
questions to be watching over the next few days. Will continue to
mention the chance for showers and thunderstorms each day with on
going moisture advection south of the frontal boundary. The extent
of the precipitation will also impact temps, holding highs in the
70s for now and lows in the 60s.
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Sct showers/t-storms
til about 01Z tonight. Patchy light fog overnight. Hit and miss
showers and storms Fri and Sat.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day Sunday
through Wednesday, with the highest confidence attm of Sunday
night into Monday. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible during that
time and depending on the intensity of the rain, possible IFR
conditions. Winds generally on the lighter side less than 10
.MARINE...Sub SCA conditions through Sat, but winds and waves
higher near thunderstorms.
Latest forecast showing sub-SCA conditions on all waters Sunday-
Wednesday. Depending on the track of low impacting the southeast US
early next week, could see increased winds on the waters. Also, the
potential of thunderstorms each day during the time brings the
chance for increased winds.