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000
FXUS61 KLWX 161655 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1255 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT
WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH IN NEW ENGLAND. THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COORDINATED WITH SPC A SHORT TIME AGO. AREA FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND HAS DESTABILIZED WITH HIGH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS YIELDING AN INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILE. VISIBLE
SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD EXPANDING WITHIN THIS AREA.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL UPDATE THE HWO TO
REFLECT NEW TRENDS. HAVE UPDATED POP AND WX GRIDS AS WELL.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOWER COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND HIGHER TRENDS SOUTH INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.

ON FRIDAY HAVE FOCUSED POPS/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY WITH A DRY
FORECAST FURTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD THE DC-BALT METRO AREA.

HOWEVER OVER THE WEEKEND...EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
MODELS INDICATE SIGNS OF LIFT INCREASING TO THE NORTH LIKELY DUE TO
VORT MAXES/SHORTWAVES IN 500 MB FLOW IN TANDEM WITH LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. THEREFORE POPS EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO TREND MAXIMA DOWNWARD TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MINIMA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO TREND UPWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WITH A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER WILL BECOME FOCUSED FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA EAST ACROSS
LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HUBS LOOK TO STAY DRY ON FRIDAY...BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
RETURN NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ONLY A STEADY 10KT BREEZE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...HELPED BY THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BATCHES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTN...SOME OF WHICH
COULD CAUSE GUSTY WINDS TO MIX DOWN. TSTMS WILL SUBSIDE AND DRIFT
TOWARD THE ESE LATER TONIGHT AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS WINDS
BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WINDS MAY FLIRT WITH
MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE BAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/GMS
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/KRW
MARINE...BPP/KRW