Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 231411 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1011 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER APPROACHING WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. 14Z OBS INDICATING SFC TROF SPLITTING WV...WHICH WILL ACT AS A TRIGGERING POINT FOR AFTN CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK WAVE. HAVE CAPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC JUST FOR AREAS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW TO WARM THIS MORNING WITH BKN- OVC SKIES. BUT STILL EXPECTING A GOOD WARM UP INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... NO PROBS XPCTD TNGT EITHER. LOWS A DEG OR TWO WARMER GIVEN AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE...BASICALLY IN THE L60S XCPT WARMER IN THE CITIES/ALONG THE BAY. LGT FOG PSBL IN THE SHEN VLLY AFTR MDNGT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW. MONDAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW TO MID 80S WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S WEST...60S EAST. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ISO TSTMS THIS AFTN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF ALL TAF SITES. WINDS LIGHT AND VRB. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...MOSTLY ON THE LOWER BAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRW/WOODY! NEAR TERM...SEARS SHORT TERM...WOODY! LONG TERM...KRW AVIATION...SEARS/KRW MARINE...SEARS/KRW

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