Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 142002 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 302 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A disturbance will move offshore later this afternoon as a brief area of high pressure noses into the region. This high will be short-lived as a low pressure system over the northern Great Lakes swings a strong cold front southeastward Wednesday. This front will bring colder air and gusty winds Wednesday into Wednesday evening. A southern disturbance will bring a chance for rain across parts of southern Maryland Wednesday into Wednesday evening. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Clouds are breaking and dissipating from northwest to southeast across the region as a disturbance moves east and offshore later this afternoon. Temperatures have been struggling to climb into the middle 40s during this afternoon due to the cloud cover. Partial clearing skies tonight before clouds move back into the region with an approaching cold front. Temperatures will gradually fall into the middle 30s tonight. A chance for a little light rain or snow in the Appalachian Mountains and just to the east overnight, while some light rain will look to move into southern Maryland and eastern Virginia from the south as a series of upper level disturbances ride along the southern branch of the jet stream. The best chance will be before daybreak Wednesday throughout Wednesday morning. High temperatures will rise to about where they were today...in the middle 40s. Colder air and strong gusty northwest winds will follow the strong cold front Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As the main upper level trough of low pressure pivots to the east of our region Wednesday night, gusty northwest winds will usher in drier air to help alleviate us from any rain showers to the south and mix of rain and snow showers to the west. Some upslope snow showers will develop on the backside of the upper level trough due to a gusty west-northwest to northwest flow. Accumulations at this time are expected to be light in most locations. As for Thursday into Thursday night, northwest winds should gradually diminish, as well as the upslope snow showers. There could be a few locations across the Central Appalachian that receive a small accumulation. Dry conditions elsewhere to the east of the Appalachian Front with temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees colder Thursday and Thursday night than Wednesday and Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Quiet weather in the long term forecast starting Friday as high pressure is centered to our south. Northwesterly flow will become southwesterly as high pressure moves off the southeast coast Friday night into Saturday, increasing the weekend temperatures in the 50s and 60s. An upper level disturbance could increase PoPs for Saturday night into Sunday morning as it moves to our south... but seeing mainly dry conditions over our CWA, and little impact to temperatures. High pressure builds back after this disturbance returning the dry weather late Sunday into Tuesday with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Vfr conditions this afternoon through Thursday. Winds this afternoon southwest 5 to 10 knots. Winds becoming west-northwest 15 to 20 knots gusts 25 knots Wednesday night through Thursday. Dry conditions expected Friday into Saturday, with maybe some showers Saturday night into early Sunday as an upper level disturbance moves near by. Dry conditions return Sunday into Monday. VFR conditions expected during this period. && .MARINE... A marine weather statement is in effect through mid-afternoon for gusty south to southwest winds. No marine hazards expected late this afternoon and tonight. Small craft advisories are in effect Wednesday through Thursday for gusty northwest winds. A gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday night into Thursday. Dry conditions expected Friday into Saturday, with maybe some showers Saturday night into early Sunday as an upper level disturbance moves near by. Dry conditions return Sunday into Monday. Winds expected to remain below the small craft advisory threshold, so not anticipating an advisory during this period at this moment. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ530>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLW NEAR TERM...KLW SHORT TERM...KLW LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...IMR/KLW MARINE...IMR/KLW/BAJ

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