Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 200801
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
401 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak front is positioned offshore. High pressure will build
over the region through Thursday. A cold front will move through
the area Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

As of 3am, 1010mb surface low pressure over Cape Lookout, NC with a
surface ridge around 1020mb stretching from southern New England to
the Midwest. Cyclonic flow over the region with light Nly/NEly flow
over LWX. Cloud shield is along the Mid-Atlantic seaboard stretching
west to the Alleghenies. Breaks in these clouds west of I-95 has
allowed fog/low clouds to develop across the Shenandoah Valley and
portions of the Piedmont. Will continue to monitor for more than
patchy dense fog which is currently covered by a Short Term Forecast.

Temperature pattern dependent on cloud cover with mid to upper 70s
maxima for cloudy southern MD where scattered light showers are
expected and low to mid 80s for the rest of the area.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Similar cloud pattern tonight though shunted south a little from
high pressure to the north. Valley fog likely again with minima
generally mid 60s inland (around 60F NW where it will be
clearer) and very low PoPs for St. Marys county.

Onshore NEly flow Wednesday and Thursday with above normal
temperatures under mostly sunny skies. Cloud shield looks to be
along southern periphery of the CWA. Low PoPs limited to far SWrn
zones.



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

The extended part of the forecast should be fairly quiet. The big
story should be the cold frontal passage during the second half of
Saturday. Friday should be an above-average-temperature day with
highs in the mid to upper 80s. Given the trajectory of the front -
from the north...the air ahead of it will not be moisture rich...
hence chances and amounts of rain will be scant.

Autumn begins on the 22nd...and the second half of the weekend
will give us some taste of what is to come. Cooler air will push
into the Mid Atlantic...taking the highs back into the 70s. What
should really feel autumnal is Sunday night - expect to see lows
east of the mountains drop into the 50s except for the warmer
cities and along the Bay.

Monday looks to be a pleasant day ahead of the next cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

IFR conds expected develop through the mid-morning in onshore flow
from low along NC coast. Low cigs likely east including DC metros
with low vsbys west. Conds improve through the midday hours. Patchy
fog tonight.

VFR conds prevail Wednesday and Thursday high pressure persists.

VFR conditions expected Friday and Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...

NEly flow 10-15kt through Thursday as low pressure lingers along the
Carolina coast.

Winds expected to remain below SCA values Friday. A cold front is
expected to push through the waters Saturday afternoon. This could
produce showers and gusty winds.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

No coastal flood headlines as of now. Northeast winds continue on
the waters through Thursday as low pressure remains along the
Carolina coast. However, anomalies will stay elevated and near
action stages into Wednesday. Water levels will continue to be
closely monitored with possible minor coastal flooding on the
preferred high tide of Wednesday evening.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!



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