Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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083 FXUS61 KLWX 270038 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 838 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area through the end of the week. Low pressure may affect the region Memorial Day through Tuesday. Weak high pressure builds for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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It`s a warm evening tonight with temps slowly dropping into the upper 70s/low 80s. Scattered showers are moving across the Blue Ridge region and will slowly dissapate as they move eastward. An isolated shower is still possible across the Baltimore/Washington metro. Clearing and patchy fog are expected overnight. Low temperatures will drop into the mid 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Additional height rises and building sfc high pressure Fri and Sat will tend to limit t-storm coverage Fri and Sat, but heat and instability will build each day with still a risk of pop-up showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Precipitation chances will increase Sunday heading into next week as the rain pushes north from a developing low pressure system impacting the southeast US coast. Leeward trough sets up Monday and as the upper level energy associated with the system to the south nudges north, should expect to see enhancement in the rain across the Mid-Atlantic Monday and Tuesday. Exact placement of the heavier banding of rain still uncertain as the GFS tracks further west than the ECWMF. With the clouds and rain, temperatures will be cooler than this week`s temps, though still upper 70s to lower 80s. Models continue to diverge on the solution heading into the middle of the week concerning the placement of the aforementioned low pressure system. General consensus does indicate a slow approaching cold front from the northwest during this time, with ridging building in aloft holding the front to the north of the area. How strong the ridge is and thus how far the front makes it will be questions to be watching over the next few days. Will continue to mention the chance for showers and thunderstorms each day with on going moisture advection south of the frontal boundary. The extent of the precipitation will also impact temps, holding highs in the 70s for now and lows in the 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Prevailing VFR conditions expected tonight however patchy light fog is expected overnight. Some reduction in vsby is possible mainly at mrb/cho/iad into Friday morning. Prevailing VFR conditions expected Friday into Saturday. -SHRA/VCTS expected Friday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day Sunday through Wednesday, with the highest confidence attm of Sunday night into Monday. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible during that time and depending on the intensity of the rain, possible IFR conditions. Winds generally on the lighter side less than 10 knots.
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&& .MARINE...
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Southerly channeling expected tonight. Gusts up to 20 kts expected on the lower Tidal Potomac and Chesapeake Bay south of drum point tonight. Winds should subside after 2am tonight. Sub SCA conditions through Sat, but winds and waves higher near thunderstorms. Latest forecast showing sub-SCA conditions on all waters Sunday- Wednesday. Depending on the track of low impacting the southeast US early next week, could see increased winds on the waters. Also, the potential of thunderstorms each day during the time brings the chance for increased winds.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ534-537-543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...HAS/LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...ADS AVIATION...ADS/HAS/LFR MARINE...ADS/HAS/LFR

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