Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KLWX 301313 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 913 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO COASTAL CAROLINA SATURDAY BEFORE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING MIDWEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F. FAIRLY LOW SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT... RANGING FROM MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S IN THE METROS/BY THE BAY. FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALMOST DUE SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DOES NOT ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP...SO EXPECT SIMILAR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST...WHICH MAY ALSO HINDER TEMPERATURES. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS...SOME SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE WV/MD MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE WKND FCST WL REVOLVE ARND S/WV ENERGY PLUNGING INTO THE SERN CONUS FRI NGT-SAT MRNG...CARVING OUT A DEEP UPR TROF/CUTOFF LOW... INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS LT SAT...WHICH WL HEAD OUT INTO THE ATLC SAT NGT-SUN. WHILE MDL GDNC CONTS TO DIFFER ON SPECIFICS...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PTTN DESCRIBED ABV SEEMS TO BE NARROWING IN ON A SOLN... ALBEIT AN ANOMOLOUS ONE. WL FOLLOW A SCENARIO WHERE MOST OF THE ENERGY WL BE DIPPING W OF THE CWFA FRI NGT...WHICH WL KEEP POPS HIGH W OF THE BLURDG...BUT LOW IN THE E. GFS QPF VERBATIM ACTUALLY PAINTS THE I-95 CRRDR DRY ATTM. AM NOT FEELING THAT CONFIDENT IN ABSOLUTES...AND HV OPTED TO KEEP CHC POPS IN THE E...BUT EMPHASIZED AFTR MIDNGT TIMING. THIS ENERGY WLL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SAT...TO THE S OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN...THIS WL KEEP THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE AREA...THIS TIME TO THE SOUTH. HV LKLY POPS OKV-METRO DC-DMH SWD. THEN TAPER POPS OFF AS LOW PULLS AWAY. DUE TO THE DEPTH OF THE LOW/EXTENT OF HGT FALLS...PTYPE BECOMES AN ISSUE. WL PRESERVE PRVS FCSTS...WHICH CONFINES ANY MIX/SNW TO THE APLCNS...SPCLY THE WRN SLOPES. IT WUD TAKE AN EXTREME EVENT TO BRING ANYTHING OTHER THAN RA E OF THE MTNS IN ERLY NOV. "BLUSTERY" LOOKS TO BE A GOOD WX WORD SAT AFTN THRU SUN STILL LOOKING AT WINDY CONDS SAT AFTN-NGT AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY. GDNC SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WNDS ARND 20 MPH...AND GUSTS CUD EASLIY REACH 30-35 MPH. OF COURSE...THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WL DETERMINE THOSE DETAILS. TOOK MIN-T UP A CPL DEGF FRI NGT DUE TO POOR RADL COOLING CONDS. SAT NGT WILL BE PRELY BASED ON CAA. CHGS MINIMAL. IT MAY SPELL THE END OF THE GROWING SEASON FOR MANY AREAS W OF THE BLURDG. MAXT SAT WL BE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY. MOS HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON IT...LWR 50S E OF THE BLURDG AND MID-UPR 40S W.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION SO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GIVE WAY TO WAA FROM SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMUP IN THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS THEN LIKELY TO PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HAVE INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. WENT WARMER ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE WAA AND 925 MB TEMPS APPROACHING 9C...GETTING THE REGION INTO THE 60S. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 4-5KFT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW AT LESS THAN 10KT BEFORE DECOUPLING THIS EVENING. FLGT RESTRICTIONS XPCTD THIS WKND AS UPR LVL ENERGY PASSES S OF THE AREA...INITIATING LOPRES WHICH PASSES NE. MVFR SHUD GNLY PREVAIL... BUT WUDNT RULE OUT LCL IFR FRI NGT-SAT. IN ADDITION... WL HV WINDY CONDS /NW 20-30 KT/ SAT AFTN INTO SUN WHICH CUD AFFECT OPS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. N TO NW WINDS WILL PEAK AT 10-15KT. A STORM SYSTEM WL AFFECT THE MARINE AREA THIS WKND. SCA CONDS LKLY BY SAT...AND GLW PROBABLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BY SAT AFTN INTO SUN. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FOLLOWED BY BLOWOUT CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE..WOODY! PRVS...HTS/ADS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.