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289
FXUS64 KLZK 191946
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
246 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday Night

Warm and humid conditions remain the primary story across the LZK
CWA this afternoon...with above normal temps expected through the
short term period. Upper level ridging will restrengthen across the
state starting today...keeping temps in the 80s to mid 90s for
highs...and lows in the 60s and 70s. Precip chances will remain
limited...though still some potential each afternoon for diurnally
driven isolated convection. The overall threat for seeing SVR WX
will also remain very limited...but if storms were to form...an
isolated strong storm may be seen given the warm and humid
conditions. Expect this overall trend to continue into the long term
period.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

A fairly quiet weather pattern for the LZK CWA will continue
throughout the long term period. Models are in very good agreement
with the longwave pattern. Deep troughing over the western CONUS
will persist with significant downstream ridging. With the surface
high located to the east/northeast, the best of convection will be
along the southern and, eventually, western periphery of the CWA.
PWATS across the region will be at or above normal, with values
ranging from 1.3 to 2+ inches over the entire period.

A weak upper low will retrograde from the Carolinas and move over
the northern Gulf Coast. Given high PWATS and diurnal heating, even
the slight DPVA/upper lift may be enough to generate convection. Due
to this, highest POPs in the grids will be across the south.

Per usual for the GFS this summer, the model advertises temperatures
much too warm(~3-6 degrees F) in the heavily-forested areas of the
state. Have followed a blend rather closely, which seems to mitigate
this issue fairly well this time around.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     71  91  71  90 /  10  20  10  10
Camden AR         72  91  72  91 /  10  20  10  20
Harrison AR       69  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  10
Hot Springs AR    72  91  71  91 /  10  20  10  10
Little Rock   AR  72  92  72  91 /  10  20  10  10
Monticello AR     72  91  72  90 /  10  20  10  20
Mount Ida AR      71  91  71  90 /  10  20  10  20
Mountain Home AR  69  90  70  90 /  10  10  10  10
Newport AR        70  90  70  91 /  10  20  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     71  91  72  91 /  10  20  10  20
Russellville AR   72  93  71  91 /  10  20  10  10
Searcy AR         69  91  70  90 /  10  20  10  10
Stuttgart AR      70  91  72  91 /  10  20  10  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...62 / Long Term...BROWN