Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 062048
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
248 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday

The main concern in the short term is the coincident arrival of
cold air and light precipitation, and the resulting possibility
of winter weather in the northern parts of the state late
Wednesday.

A cold front did move through the state today, as noted by a wind
shift across the board and increasingly dry air filtering into the
state. Lingering low clouds will likely not be completely pushed
out of the state this evening before they shift back northward
ahead of the next system that will bring some light precipitation
to Arkansas tomorrow. A developing jet streak, on the order of
+120kt, will setup across the southern plains and into the
southern half of Missouri over the next 24 hours, ahead of a
shortwave trough that will move through Kansas and Missouri. This
will coincide with the arrival of an arctic front in northern
Arkansas tomorrow evening, providing enough lift to generate some
light precip across a better part of the state. Forecast soundings
suggest that the onset of precipitation will be rain up north, but
a quick transition to at least a rain/snow mix, if not all snow, will
be in order.

Now, before you get too excited, forecast precipitation amounts
are low, precip rates are expected to be low, and to top it off
the ground is still quite warm. Thus accumulations should be light
at best. Included a tenth of an inch of accumulation in the
forecast after 00z tomorrow evening, but expect this will be
primarily in the grass and on surfaces like cars, decks, grills,
etc. Precipitation is expected to end shortly after midnight Wed
night. But significantly colder air will be filtering into the
state at that time. Thus it is possible that some slick spots may
show up on roadways late Wed night and into Thu morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday Night

No significant changes were made to the first part of the long term
with coldest air/apparent temps expected Friday morning as arctic
air continues to filter into the region. Pressure gradient will
relax heading into the weekend with surface winds turning back to
the south providing a warm up into the 40s/50s and an increase in
moisture. Next cold front and associated precip chances will sweep
through during the day on Sunday. As long as the timing doesn`t
change we are looking at all liquid. By the start of the work week,
temperatures will moderate back into seasonal normals in the 50s for
highs and 30s for lows.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     31  42  27  37 /   0  10  40   0
Camden AR         40  51  34  44 /  10  20  30  10
Harrison AR       26  39  20  33 /   0  20  40   0
Hot Springs AR    38  44  31  40 /  10  20  30   0
Little Rock   AR  37  45  32  41 /  10  20  30   0
Monticello AR     40  52  36  42 /  10  20  30  10
Mount Ida AR      37  44  29  39 /  10  20  30   0
Mountain Home AR  27  41  23  35 /   0  10  40   0
Newport AR        32  44  28  38 /   0  10  40   0
Pine Bluff AR     38  47  33  41 /  10  20  30  10
Russellville AR   35  44  30  40 /   0  20  40   0
Searcy AR         34  43  28  39 /   0  10  40   0
Stuttgart AR      37  46  33  40 /  10  10  30   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...64 / Long Term...61



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