Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 271952
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
252 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday

As expected...convective coverage today is a little greater than
the past couple of days thanks to the presence of a weak upper
low over the southeastern half of the state. This feature will
continue to meander about the eastern half of Arkansas through the
evening hours before getting picked up by shortwave energy moving
southeast through Missouri. This will kick the low east of
Arkansas...but another shortwave moving southeast in developing
northwest upper flow across Missouri will kick off more showers
and thunderstorms across Arkansas on Thursday. The best chances
will remain in the central and southeastern parts of the
state...coincident with the best PWAT values and instability.

For Thursday night and into Friday...will hold onto at least
chance PoPs through that time as disturbances in the northwest
flow will mean that MCS activity will be possible through the end
of the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday

With the area remaining in northwest flow aloft, we should have a
shot at an MCS or two on Friday night and Saturday night, primarily
over the northeastern half of Arkansas. During the daytime hours,
remnant mesoscale boundaries interacting with daytime heating should
provide a focus for additional development, primarily during the
heating of the day.

By Monday, our not-so-friendly upper level ridge will try to re-
establish itself over the region, which should hamper large-scale
convection, save for diurnally-driven isolated showers/storms.
Temperatures will increase next week. Humidity will remain
unpleasant, and afternoon heat index values will approach the 100-105
degree range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  90  73  90 /  50  50  50  50
Camden AR         74  85  72  90 /  50  60  30  50
Harrison AR       71  90  70  87 /  30  40  40  40
Hot Springs AR    74  88  73  89 /  50  50  30  50
Little Rock   AR  75  89  74  90 /  50  60  30  50
Monticello AR     74  84  73  89 /  60  60  30  50
Mount Ida AR      72  88  73  88 /  40  40  30  50
Mountain Home AR  72  90  71  88 /  40  40  40  40
Newport AR        74  89  73  89 /  60  60  50  50
Pine Bluff AR     74  84  72  89 /  60  60  30  50
Russellville AR   74  91  74  90 /  40  40  40  40
Searcy AR         74  88  73  89 /  60  50  40  50
Stuttgart AR      74  87  73  90 /  60  60  40  50
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...64 / Long Term...57



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