Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 020604 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
104 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATE FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE OVERALL PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WITH
SOME BRIEF LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND ALSO ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH. HAVE VCSH MENTIONED UP NORTH AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOWER. BUT KEPT MENTION OF
PREVAILING -SHRA FOR A PERIOD AT CENTRAL SITES...AND MENTION OF
PREVAILING -TSRA IN THE SOUTH WHERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD RELATIVELY SPEAKING. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL COME TO
AN END BY 12Z UP NORTH...AND CLOSER TO MIDDAY FOR CENTRAL SITES.
WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY LINGERING IN NRN LOUISIANA...AT LEAST
VCSH/VCTS WILL BE NECESSARY FOR KLLQ THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

UPDATE...

A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...HOWEVER CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL END ACROSS THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST THROUGH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

FNTL BNDRY RMND NEARLY STATIONARY ACRS SERN AR THIS AFTN. SCTD
SHRA/FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE BNDRY THIS AFTN. SHORT RANGE
MODEL DATA INDCS THAT ACTIVITY WL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE NWRN HALF OF THE
STATE THIS AFTN...WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPR 40S
AND 50S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY WL RMN QUASI-STATIONARY TNGT INTO MON.
A SFC LOW IS FCST TO FORM ALONG THE FNT OVR TX...EVENTUALLY TRACKING
NEWD ALONG THE BNDRY THRU MON. THIS WL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN/SCTD TSRA FOR PARTS OF THE FA. THE NAM RMNS THE MODEL OUTLIER
AGAIN TODAY..INDCG A MUCH MORE AREAL COVERAGE/QPF WITH THIS SYS.
WHILE THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF...IS MUCH DRIER
REGARDING RAINFALL AMTS. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
FOR RAIN CHCS TNGT AND MON...WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT
FCST TRENDS.

DRIER CONDS WL RETURN STARTING MON NIGHT AND CONT ON TUE AS HIGH
PRES SETTLES INTO THE MID SOUTH.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES STRETCHING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER ARKANSAS
UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL NOT
MOVE EAST OF ARKANSAS UNTIL SUNDAY.

DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP RETURNS SATURDAY.

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

224

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$


&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64



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