Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 302347
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A FRONT IS STALLED JUST
SOUTH OF ARKANSAS AND WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
SECTIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL END IN THE
AFTERNOON. VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT EAST OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. HOWEVER THIS
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW PRECIP CHANCES TO CONTINUE.

SPEAKING OF PRECIP CHANCES...ESSENTIALLY HAVE ONGOING 20-30
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST MOST EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. BETWEEN ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
CO-LOCATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUBTROPICAL JET
ENERGY...AND INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NUMEROUS PERIODS OF LIGHT
QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LIMITED POPS TO LOW-END CHANCE
LEVELS AND STUCK WITH AREA WORDING OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT
THERE WILL BE MANY PERIODS OF THE SHORT TERM WHERE SOME CONVECTION
WILL BE SEEN ON RADAR...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE ENOUGH TO
STICK WITH LOW POPS IN TERMS OF CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL BE A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NRN TIER STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
STRETCH FROM THE SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
MORNING...SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO OKLAHOMA. MODELS
AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT MAKES IT INTO ARKANSAS IS NOT
EXTREMELY HIGH BUT DO HAVE PRECIP CHANCES CREEPING INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH ON THU NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MODELS INDC THAT A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE UPR FLOW PATTERN WL EXIST
ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A LONG WV TROF AND ASSOCD CDFNT WL BE
WORKING ACRS AR DURG THE DAY ON FRI AND EARLY FRI NGT. DUE TO THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC LOW TO AR ON FRI...THERE WL STILL BE A
CHC FOR A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS ALONG THE FNT.

SFC HIGH PRES WL BLD INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRIER AND COOLER CONDS. THE RDG WL THEN SHIFT
QUICKLY EWD HEADING INTO SUN...ALLOWING S/SELY WINDS TO RETURN TO
THE FA. THE RESULTING LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN/INCRSG WAA PATTERN WL
RESULT IN CONTD SCTD PRECIP CHCS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  77  54  75 /  10  30  20  30
CAMDEN AR         60  77  59  79 /  20  30  20  30
HARRISON AR       51  76  53  75 /  10  20  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    57  76  58  77 /  20  40  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  76  58  77 /  20  40  20  30
MONTICELLO AR     58  76  59  78 /  20  30  20  40
MOUNT IDA AR      57  76  57  76 /  20  30  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  50  77  53  75 /  10  20  10  30
NEWPORT AR        51  76  54  75 /  10  30  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     56  76  58  78 /  20  40  20  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  78  56  76 /  20  30  20  30
SEARCY AR         51  76  55  76 /  20  30  20  30
STUTTGART AR      54  76  58  77 /  20  40  20  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




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