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000
FXUS64 KLZK 021701 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1100 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL SHORT TERM FORECAST ON TRACK. CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY OVER MAINLY CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN AR. SHORTWAVE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPS TONIGHT REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THEREFORE ONLY RAIN IS
FORECAST. MOST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY
FORECAST WITH RAIN STARTING...THEN COLDER AIR FILTERS IN OVER AR
FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT...AND WINTER WEATHER WILL BE SEEN.
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE THE KEY...AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET ALL DEPEND ON THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. CURRENT WINTER
STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 1-3, 2-4, 4 TO 6 INCH
SNOW AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND ICING POTENTIAL WITH
LESS THAN A TENTH...A FEW TENTHS...TO SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY
REACHING A QUARTER OR HIGHER ICING AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...WILL UPDATE
FORECAST WITH IN LATE MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

.AVIATION...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VISBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING
BEFORE DETERIORATING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS
WILL BE PREVALENT. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND
8-10 KNOTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. TAFS ALREADY
OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WRF AND HRRR AGREE WITH PRECIP INCREASING IN AREA
THROUGH 18Z ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD BE
MINIMAL IF ANYTHING AT ALL. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIP DOES FALL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN. WENT WITH LOW POPS
AND NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH NO
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SMALL. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND BROUGHT A RETURN OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...POPS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE
AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. DID TREND MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ON TUESDAY...AS A RESULT IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANYWHERE IN
THE STATE WILL TOP 70 DEGREES.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW ARKANSAS BEFORE 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
WINTER WEATHER RETURNING TO THE FORECAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER WILL BE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED.

THE MAIN ISSUE WITH AND MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
THE INITIAL TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
MODELS STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR THERE WILL BE
ALOFT. ECMWF AND NAM HAVE A LARGER WARM NOSE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
GFS. FOR THIS FORECAST DID TREND THE FRONTAL TIMING...AND SFC
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH THE ECMWF...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN WHEN LOOKING AT
BOTH GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL TOTAL PLUMES. THE MEANS LINE UP
WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS DECENT GROUPING
WITH SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS THAT ARE WELL ABOVE THE MEAN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED IN
THE COMING FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD LARGELY BE CLEAR OF THE REGION BY
12Z THURSDAY. THERE MIGHT BE BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN FRIGHTENINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 30S...AND IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT AREAS WITH THE THICKEST SNOW
PACK WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN THE TEENS. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A FEW PLACES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT IS ALSO QUITE
LIKELY THAT FRIDAY MORNING...WE WILL BE STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF
DAILY RECORD LOWS IN A FEW PLACES.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WINDS
TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     40  34  55  35 /  20  30  70  70
CAMDEN AR         41  37  65  51 /  50  30  50  80
HARRISON AR       40  34  56  27 /  10  30  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    40  37  59  43 /  50  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  35  59  42 /  40  30  60  80
MONTICELLO AR     43  40  65  53 /  50  40  50  80
MOUNT IDA AR      39  37  58  41 /  50  30  70  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  33  55  30 /  10  30  60  50
NEWPORT AR        41  36  56  36 /  20  30  70  70
PINE BLUFF AR     39  37  62  46 /  50  30  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  35  56  39 /  30  30  70  60
SEARCY AR         38  35  57  39 /  30  30  70  80
STUTTGART AR      39  36  59  42 /  50  30  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57