Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 222301 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
601 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR FOG IN THE OUACHITA RIVER VALLEY IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL. ON THURSDAY A CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERS THE FORECAST WITH A
FRONTAL AND UPPER SYSTEM...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY. THEN A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD.

MORNING FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS...WAS AGAIN SEEN THIS MORNING AND
DISSIPATED BY NOON. WILL AGAIN HAVE SOME IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AM FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AR. IT HELD THE
LONGEST IN THE KMEZ AND KMWT AREA...AND IN RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
NORTH. THIS AFTERNOON SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS REACHING
THE 70S WEST TO CENTRAL...WHILE 60S EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
SEEN OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WAS A BIT
BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. PRECIP WATER VALUE AT KLZK WAS LOW AT
0.43 INCHES. SURFACE WINDS ARE NE TO E OVER AR FILTERING THE DRY
AND COOL AIR INTO THE STATE. THE MORNING WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WAS
OVER SW AR WAS WEAKENING.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND FRONT APPROACH AR FROM THE WEST. DID INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AM BASED ON LAST TWO NIGHTS BUT
SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH LIFT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE QUITE LIMITED
AND AT THIS TIME ONLY ISOLATED RAIN IS EXPECTED...AND MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AR. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
ON THURSDAY. MODELS DO STALL THE FRONT AND WASH IT OUT OVER
WESTERN AR...AND THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL DRY CONDITIONS OUT AND WARM TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NOT A LOT OF APPRECIABLE CHANGES CAN OR WILL BE MADE THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE VERSUS THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE ONLY THING WORTH NOTING IS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MAY BE A TOUCH STRONGER AND POPS WILL BE TWEAKED UPWARDS A TOUCH.
SOLUTION WILL CONTINUE TO USE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH UPPER RIDGE SITTING ALMOST ON TOP OF US
FLANKED BY UPPER TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COASTS. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GET
PUSHED TO THE EAST AS WEST COAST TROUGH ADVANCES EAST. SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. MODELS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP
AROUND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND
ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57




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