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000
FXUS64 KLZK 261756
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1156 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...

BENIGN WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD
WITH THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY AROUND 10 KTS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. LOW CLOUDS ARE THINNING AND MOVING EAST
THIS MORNING...BRINGING ALL SUNNY SKIES TO AR. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
REGION HAS ALSO BROUGHT DRY AND MUCH LESS WIND CONDITIONS WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES...WHILE 12Z
KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER OF 0.33 INCHES WITH THE NW FLOW.
PRECIP WATER VALUE WILL BE LOWER AS MORNING SOUNDING HAD THE STRATUS
DECK AROUND 3200 FEET THIS AM. RH VALUES WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TAKE RH VALUES INTO THE 30S PERCENT RANGE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL WARM TO THE 50S WITH SOME 60 DEGREE READINGS IN THE WEST. WILL
FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION...
LOWER CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR IN ALL AREAS. TAFS ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SOME CLOUDS REMAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE STATE ON SUN...AS
WELL AS THE BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE BREEZY NW WINDS HAVE RELAXED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE SUN AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH
OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S TO LOW
60S. THE CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT...BUT ONLY A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT...AND NW WINDS OF ONLY 5 TO
10 WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NRLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR
TUE AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO WARM INTO THE MID
50S TO UPPER 60 DUE TO AMPLE SUNSHINE. SRLY FLOW WILL RETURN AGAIN
FOR WED...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SRLY FLOW EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE LOW 60S TO MAYBE SOME LOW 70S
ACROSS THE WEST WED AFTERNOON. A FEW MORE CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN
HOWEVER...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WED.

A NEW...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE ON
THU...WITH BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO END THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AS MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
LIMITED. HOWEVER...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD MAY GENERATE
ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST
CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA...SO KEEP SILENT
POPS AT THIS TIME. MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF
MOISTURE LEVELS BECOME HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON FRIDAY...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE GULF...
SENDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO...IT GOES WITHOUT
SAYING...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
THE FORECAST AS SUCH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...
GIVEN MODEL PERFORMANCE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE AS OF LATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     53  39  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         58  41  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       56  37  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    58  42  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  56  41  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     55  42  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      59  42  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  55  37  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        52  36  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     55  40  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  37  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         53  38  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      54  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65