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000
FXUS64 KLZK 200548
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1248 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

.AVIATION...20/06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONT ACRS THE FA THRU THE PD. HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WL CONT TO INCRS DURG THE OVERNIGHT HRS. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SHRA/TSRA DURG THE AFTN HRS...BUT OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY
ATTM. LGT WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG WL BCM S/SELY AT 5 TO 8 KTS BY
AFTN. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE ANY CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AN ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WARMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO NE TO EAST CENTRAL AR
AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXPAND MUCH...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT NORTH
TO WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY IS. CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY...THEN FADE AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS EARLY EVENING OVER THESE PARTS OF AR
DUE TO WEAK LIFT AND OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS
THE STALLED FRONT OVER NORTHERN LA...WITH ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY
NEAR THE AR AND MO TN STATE LINES. A BIT LOWER DEW POINT TEMPS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OVER MUCH OF AR...DEW POINT TEMPS WERE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. STILL EXPECT OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE TO BE LOW. THE UPPER NW FLOW HAS ALSO BROUGHT A BIT OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO NORTHERN AR THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE EARLY EVENING
PERIOD FOR N TO N CENTRAL AR...ENDING AFTER SUNSET. DID ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEY AREAS OF WEST TO NORTH WEST AR PER TRENDS
THIS MORNING AND EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY OVER WEST TO NORTH
AR AS MODELS SHOW SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY AFTERNOON. ALSO MAY SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION EAST OK TO NE TX TO NW LA WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY
LIFTING A BIT NORTH ON THURSDAY. AGAIN OVERALL COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OVER THE EASTERN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE A
CAP TO CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT...AND A MOSTLY DRY AND HOT DAY IS
EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST HAS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
AND WILL KEEP THIS. TEMPS WARM TO THE LOWER AND SOME MID 90S. NO
CHANGE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MOSTLY DRY AND HOT WEATHER. AGAIN
OVERALL CONVECTION CHANCES REMAIN LOW...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING POTENTIAL IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
TEMPS ALSO COME UP A DEGREE OR TWO. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO
REMAIN UP AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
90S...AND A FEW SPOTS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDING STRONG. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE
GRIDS RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S. HEAT INDEX
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$