Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 020144
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
844 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ALL CONVECTION IS NORTH OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH ARKNASAS THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND MOST CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED
OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS
OVER THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...02/00Z TAF CYCLE

AFTN CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACRS THE FA ATTM...WITH SCTD CU
FIELD EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDS WL
PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THE EXCEPTION WL BE LATE TNGT WHEN
LOW CLOUDS WL DVLP AND ADVECT INTO MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN AR AND
PRODUCE MVFR CONDS. INCRSD MIXING DURG THE MRNG HRS WL ALLOW FOR
CONDS TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LVLS. SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE
THU AFTN ACRS NWRN AR WITH PROB30 GROUPS MENTIONED AND VCTS
INCLUDED ELSEWHERE. BETTER CHCS OF ORGANIZED STORMS WL OCCUR AFT
THIS FCST PD. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO
DIE OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AN ACTIVE TIME PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. CHANCE FOR MORE HIT AND MISS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON THURSDAY AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
REGION.

HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...
WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. GIVEN THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ELONGATED SURFACE FEATURE...EXPECT A MORE LINEAR
EVENT...WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SURFACE
WINDS WILL TURN SLIGHTLY BACK TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...
LEADING TO POTENTIAL OF SOME ROTATING CELLS AND HAIL DEVELOPMENT
AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH UP TO TWO INCHES
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AT BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING UP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...THE MIDSOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT DIPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INTERACT THIS FAR
SOUTH SO DID NOT BUMP POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT JUST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  86  60  73 /  20  50  90  10
CAMDEN AR         72  90  65  78 /  20  40  80  10
HARRISON AR       69  83  55  67 /  20  70  70  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  86  62  75 /  20  50  90  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  88  64  76 /  20  50  90  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  90  67  78 /  20  30  70  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  85  59  73 /  20  60  80  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  85  57  69 /  20  60  80  10
NEWPORT AR        69  87  62  74 /  20  40  90  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  90  65  77 /  20  40  80  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  86  60  74 /  20  60  80  10
SEARCY AR         70  86  63  76 /  20  40  90  10
STUTTGART AR      70  89  64  76 /  20  40  80  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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