Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 211720 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1120 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Frontal boundary will move through the state this afternoon, with
winds switching around to the northwest behind it, then north or
northeast by late this evening. Over central and southern portions
ahead of the front, broken mvfr stratocu will be possible, but
this should scatter out by late this afternoon as the front
passes. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 420 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017)
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday Night

A veil of high clouds was noted over the large part of AR through
the overnight hrs. This helped keep early mrng temps mainly in the
40s and lower 50s. The exception was acrs far Ern/Srn AR where less
cloud cover allowed the mercury to fall into the 30s.

NW flow aloft wl being another CDFNT acrs AR later today and tngt.
Models are consistent with timing of the fnt thru the FA, entering
NW early this aftn, into cntrl AR arnd 22/00Z, and finally out of SE
AR arnd midnight tngt.

Sly winds ahead of the fnt wl help highs today to top out in the
lower and mid 60s. There wl be some incrs in low lvl RH, primarily
ovr the S half of the FA. However, still not looking for any
organized rain along the fnt.

Another round of much cooler/drier air wl move into the region for
Wed/Wed night.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday

On Thanksgiving SDay...Shortwave ridging aloft and high pressure
at the surface should keep mostly clear conditions in place across
Arkansas. The day is expected to start off cold, with most
locations starting the day below freezing. Highs are expected to
climb up to seasonal normals though with plenty of sunshine and
light winds across the state. Highs are expected to top out in the
upper 50s to near 60 degrees on Thursday.

Temperatures are expected to warm up on Friday and Saturday as
warmer air aloft builds over the state in advance of another cold
front. The cold front is expected to move across the state on
Saturday...but the cold air behind the front is not expected to
arrive until late Saturday afternoon. Highs Friday and Saturday are
expected to climb into the mid to upper 60s. Rain chances along the
front remain low for now as there does not appear to be enough time
for moisture to arrive out ahead of the front to allow showers to
develop as lift moves across the state.

High pressure will build in behind the cold front on Saturday and
remain in place across the state for Sunday and Monday. The forecast
remains dry through Monday as a result. A strong upper level trough
is expected to approach the state by mid-week next week...and this
system will send another front across Arkansas as it moves across
the area. This system may have enough upper level support with it to
allow for some rain chances across the state on Tuesday or
Wednesday. Model to model and model run to model run consistency
regarding this system remain only have a 20 POP in the
forecast for Tuesday afternoon at this time. Will watch this system
closely as we move through the holiday weekend as it may offer some
much needed rain for the state next week.

Fire Weather...

Look for south winds at 5 to 10 mph today, with a few higher gusts
ovr NRN AR ahead of cold front. Min RH values this aftn wl be in the
40 to 50 percent range as low level moisture wl be on the increase.
Much drier/cooler air wl return for Wed. Sfc winds wl be highest
during the mrng hrs on Wed, then subside as high pressure center
apchs AR from the NW. Min RH values on Wed aftn wl in the 25 to 35
percent range.

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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