Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 210004
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
704 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.Aviation...

Scattered cumulus continue to dissipate this evening. With high
pressure over the area, expect clear skies over the area
overnight. Patchy fog is expected in the morning...and winds will
increase in the afternoon. VFR and MVFR conditions are
anticipated.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 211 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday

Warm and humid conditions remain the primary story across the LZK
CWA this afternoon...with above normal temps expected through the
short term period. A weak upper disturbance has moved over the state
this afternoon...providing some increased cloud cover but has yet to
trigger any precip. Do think an isolated SHRA/TSRA may form...but
will keep POPs low this afternoon. Should see a bit less cloud cover
on Thu and Fri...with similar precip potential continuing through the
short term period.  Again...temps will continue above normal for the
next several days into the long term period.

LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday

Much of the extended period will continue to be characterized by
above normal temperatures, dry conditions and southerly winds. But,
changes are on the horizon near the end of the long term period as a
cold front is expected to move through the area. In the wake of this
front will be cooler temperatures, much closer to or a bit below
normal.

At the start of the long term period continued troughing in the mid
levels will be seen across western portions of the US with ridging
firmly in place across the central and eastern parts of the country.
At the surface, high pressure will be centered just off the east
coast, providing south to southeasterly winds to AR for much of the
period.

But, as previously mentioned, the mid level pattern will undergo
some changes by the middle of next week. The ridge to the east will
break down and more of a zonal flow can be in place across the
state, helping to usher in a front set to make its way across AR.
Unfortunately, rain chances don`t appear great with this frontal
passage, and higher POPs are confined to mostly western areas in the
current forecast.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...99



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