052
FXUS64 KMAF 101957
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
257 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

WV imagery shows the upper trough has retreated to southern Nevada
over the past 24 hours, maintaining southwest flow aloft over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Closer to home, a good swath of
stratus is backed up against the higher terrain, keeping a lid on
afternoon highs.

Tonight, the dryline is forecast to be west of KELP, w/surface
dewpoints in the 50s most locations.  Convection is expected to be
ongoing over the lower Trans Pecos as surface winds veer to upslope
easterly.  Meanwhile, the upper trough is forecast to finally begin
ejecting eastward, to the Four Corners by 00Z Sunday.  Models depict
shortwaves calving off the base of the trough over the next 24
hours, and these will combine w/large scale ascent to develop
convection out west, building east overnight.  Saturday, widespread
convection is expected, especially as the old frontal boundary is
forecast to cross the river back into the CWA.  Models continue to
depict deep-layer shear 40-60kts, w/mid-level laps rates steepening
the farther west one goes, so a few severe cells cannot be ruled
out.  Model soundings continue to forecast PWATs increasing to over
1.25" at KMAF, around 2.5 std devs above the average of 0.72".
Unfortunately, better QPFs don`t favor the higher terrain where it`s
needed most, but beggars can`t be choosers, and we`ll take whatever
we can get.  Highs across the lower terrain confined to stratus will
be pathetic, over 15F below normal, but highs over the mountains and
along the border should be much more respectable.

Saturday night, the upper trough is forecast to move only to central
Colorado by 12Z Sunday, so convection will be slow to taper off, but
should weaken overnight.  Cloud cover and return flow will keep
overnight lows above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

By 12z Sunday, we`ll be on the tail-end of our precipitation chances
as the upper low slides eastward throughout the day. Rainfall
chances taper from west to east through the morning and early
afternoon with clearing skies building in from the west as the back-
side of the trough brings subsidence and drier air. Temperatures
rebound nicely back to near average with the return on sunshine on
Sunday, with a gradual warming trend through Tuesday with an upper
ridge passing overhead. This ridge also keeps our weather relatively
quiet with the dryline backed up against the higher terrain/Pecos
River until the next system approaches on Wednesday. With the
dryline this far west and the approaching upper trough, afternoon
thunderstorm development is possible. As for severe chances,
currently, the ensemble clusters have a 50-70% chance for CAPE >
1000J/kg and bulk shear > 20kts so it is something to keep an eye on
over the next few days. A cold front is set to accompany this trough
Wednesday into Thursday, serving as an additional lifting mechanism
for storms but also sending temperatures back down below average for
the latter half of the week.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Messy TAFs are on tap for the next 24 hours, as post-frontal
stratus lingers. Surface winds will slowly veer over the next 24
hours, picking up a little Saturday as return flow resumes. Cigs
will come down overnight, w/NBM suggesting a few hours of LIFR
KCNM, IFR KFST, and MVFR other terminals. All terminals should be
MVFR by the end of the forecast period. Convection will be
possible, but this is all back-loaded to the end of the forecast
period, and too far out for a mention attm. We`ll start trying to
pinpoint this next issuance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               63  70  61  82 /  20  80  50  60
Carlsbad                 61  72  59  86 /  40  50  40   0
Dryden                   68  81  68  92 /  20  40  50  20
Fort Stockton            64  78  65  91 /  20  60  40  20
Guadalupe Pass           58  70  57  78 /  40  50  30   0
Hobbs                    59  66  57  84 /  30  70  50  10
Marfa                    56  85  53  84 /  30  60  30  10
Midland Intl Airport     62  67  61  84 /  20  70  40  30
Odessa                   64  68  63  85 /  20  70  40  20
Wink                     61  74  61  89 /  30  70  40  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44