Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 231951
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
251 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...SURFACE WARM FRONT REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE HAS BEEN SLOW
TO RELEASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. RAIN CHANCE REMAINS HIGH THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STRONG
SOUTHEAST H85 WINDS CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN WAVE
WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE NIGHT. STRENGTHENING SW-NE
UPPER JET TAKES SHAPE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THROUGH THE TN VALLEY.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A LATE DAY COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM... (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
NAM WANTS TO CONTINUE TO LINGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO KEEP THE ENERGY OF THE
SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
SOLUTION YOU BELIEVE LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAY`S AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NAM WANTS TO KEEP THE
FRONT DOWN SOUTH OF US ALONG WITH ANY CHANCE OF CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
FOR THE AREA. ON THE OTHER HAND OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF
WANT TO GIN UP A LOW THAT SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT AND BRINGS IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO OUR NORTH EAST. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION AND
BROUGHT IN LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE THE SNOW STAYING
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS AS THEY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
AND COOLER TEMPS TO SUPPORT SNOW, BUT AT THE MOMENT HAVE THOSE
LOCATIONS RECEIVING AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.

TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK UP THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK TILL HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND. NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
POTENTIAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE AREA. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP
CHANCES/TYPE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON
WHEN (OR IF) THIS MIGHT HAPPEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             53  65  36  54 /  70  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  51  64  36  52 /  90  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  62  36  52 /  80  20  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  65  36  48 /  90  20  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-JOHNSON-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON
     TN-WEST POLK.

VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

SON/ABM



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