Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 250831
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN PULL AWAY ON MONDAY.  MODELS
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDER...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW.  EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN
MOVING IN LATE TODAY...WITH BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING TONIGHT.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.  PRECIP TYPE
STILL PROBLEMATIC...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL STAY TOO WARM FOR MUCH SNOW IN MOST VALLEY AREAS.  HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD PICK UP SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND MAY END UP
BEING ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY LEVEL ON
AMOUNTS...WILL JUST ISSUE AN SPS TALKING ABOUT THE SNOW POTENTIAL
FOR NOW. WILL UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS A BIT MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...STAYED THE COURSE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS KEEPING SLIGHT THROUGH LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
VALLEY WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR HIGHER TERRAIN IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW SNOWFALL SCENARIO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHERE THE MOUNTAINS
COULD PICK UP ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE PEAKS ACROSS THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS. A DUSTING TO AS
MUCH AS ONE INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND MORRISTOWN
NORTHEAST INTO THE TRI-CITIES AREA...PERHAPS A SMIDGE MORE ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MUCH OF THE
WEEK WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE WINTER WITH THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN
STATES UPPER TROUGH IN NO HURRY TO MOVE AWAY...ALTHOUGH THE UPSLOPE
SNOW SITUATION SHOULD END BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ALLOWING THE RETURN OF
SOME SUNSHINE. IN THE ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH RAIN ON THE FRONT SIDE AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK
SIDE AS MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRAILING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS LATER WEEK FEATURE JUST ADDS MORE
COLD AIR TO THE MIX KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY. WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH A BIT OF
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE BACK IN THE
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             54  38  42  29 /  40  70  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  52  38  42  29 /  30  80  50  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  37  41  29 /  40  80  50  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              51  35  40  26 /  10  80  60  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$


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