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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 100819
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
319 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. UPSLOPE FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES EVEN MORE FAVORABLE WITH RESPECT TO WIND
DIRECTION DURING THE FIRST PERIOD. MODELS ALSO PROJECT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BRIEFLY ENHANCED FROM TRAJECTORY FROM WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION...MAINLY LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH GOOD
LIFT AND SOME LOW-LEVEL CAPE FAVOR CONTINUATION AND EVEN INCREASE IN
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE FLOW
LOCATIONS AND OVER OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE FIRST PERIOD. THUS WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER
PRODUCTS AS CURRENTLY CONFIGURED. WILL ALSO CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY
AS STRONG FLOW CONTINUES BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. SYSTEM LOSES ITS
EFFECTS ON REGION BY LATE IN THE SECOND PERIOD. FOR TEMPS...
GENERALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE FIRST PERIOD
WHILE GENERALLY FAVORED MAV GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE SECOND PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FORECAST GRIDS GENERALLY
ON TRACK FOR THESE PERIODS...LINED UP QUITE WELL WITH ECMWF AND
NEIGHBORING OFFICES GRIDS. NOT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR EXTREME NE AREAS ON THURSDAY...THEN LOOK
FOR A SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
POSSIBLY BRUSH SE TN AND SW NC. THIS IS ALL QUITE CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS GRIDS...SO LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE.

ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH ECMWF A BIT FASTER IN SWEEPING THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. TYPICALLY WOULD
EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF A SYSTEM
SUCH AS THIS...AND FORECAST GRIDS WERE ALREADY TRENDED THAT WAY FOR
MONDAY. HOWEVER...PER COORDINATION I DID BUMP POPS UP ON SUNDAY
DAYTIME TO CHANCE ACROSS NRN AREAS...AND WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO
LOOK INTO INCREASING POPS MORE IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
UNDERCUTTING MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THURSDAY LOOKED GOOD...SINCE WE
EXPECT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SW VA/NE TN/SMOKY MTNS. ALSO
...FAVORED TRENDING BELOW MOS FOR OTHER DAYS GIVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND 850 MB TEMPS. THUS...NOT MUCH HOPE OF GETTING NEAR SEASONAL
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             40  26  43  25  44 /  20   0   0  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  34  22  38  22  42 /  50  10   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       34  22  40  21  40 /  40  10  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              28  20  35  19  37 /  60  20  10   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHEROKEE...CLAY.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...JOHNSON...
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST
     GREENE...UNICOI.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
     JOHNSON...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...
     SOUTHEAST GREENE...UNICOI.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...BRADLEY...CAMPBELL...
     CLAIBORNE...EAST POLK...GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...
     HANCOCK...HAWKINS...JEFFERSON...KNOX...LOUDON...MARION...
     MCMINN...MEIGS...MORGAN...NW BLOUNT...NORTH SEVIER...
     NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST GREENE...
     NORTHWEST MONROE...RHEA...ROANE...SCOTT TN...SEQUATCHIE...
     SOUTHEAST MONROE...SULLIVAN...UNION...WASHINGTON TN...WEST
     POLK.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...HANCOCK...HAWKINS...
     MORGAN...NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST GREENE...SCOTT TN...
     SULLIVAN...WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE.


&&

$$

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