Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
FXUS64 KMRX 250653
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
253 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
A quiet morning across the eastern Tennessee Valley and Southern
Appalachian region...with a mostly clear sky and some patchy light
fog in the sheltered valleys and along lakes. The fog will quickly
dissipate after sunrise...resulting in a mostly clear sky for the
remainder of the day in most spots as a surface high builds in. The
one interesting feature in play for this afternoon and evening will
be a weak stationary front draped across Middle TN...Northern
AL...and back up into the far Southern Plateau and Valley of East TN
and North GA. Think this boundary will sink further SW...taking with
it any mentionable precipitation chances with it for isolated to
scattered diurnal convection. Thus...though a couple of rogue storms
are not out of the question...did not have enough confidence to
mention in the forecast at this time. Given the high thickness
values and abundant sunshine...highs will warm into the low to mid
90s over Central/Southern Valley...and the upper 80s across
Southwest Virginia and far Northeast TN. For tonight...clear...mild
and calm conditions will continue...with a few areas of patchy
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For Sunday...surface ridging moves east allowing moisture to
gradually return...mainly across the Plateau and southern half of
the area. Model soundings show PWs increasing to 1.7 inches at CHA
with TRI remaining less than 1.25inchs...so a marked difference.
Will bring mainly orographic storms in for the Plateau and south
during the afternoon and evening.
Upper ridge breaks down for Monday as upper troughing builds over the
Great Lakes. A frontal boundary will move into the area for Monday
afternoon and evening. Airmass will once again be moist and
unstable...so good coverage of storms anticipated. High PWs and CAPE
(MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/Kg) will produce some strong to possibly
severe storms. Damaging winds and heavy rains will be the main
concern. WBZ will be pretty high which will limit hail potential.
A short-wave within Great Lakes/Northeast upper trough will swing
across the area for Tuesday afternoon and evening keeping chances of
thunderstorms going...especially northeast.
Frontal boundary will pull south of the area for Wednesday through
Friday. Model soundings show airmass quite a bit drier.
However...best moist and instability over west North Caroline to
keep slight PoPs near the TN/NC stateline.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 73 94 74 / 10 10 40 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 70 91 71 / 10 10 30 30
Oak Ridge, TN 93 70 92 71 / 10 10 30 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 66 90 67 / 10 10 10 30