Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 211859
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
259 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Sunday)..The high pressure at the
surface and aloft over the region will be shifting east during the
period, with moisture starting to increase ahead of the next system.
Still mainly just varying amounts of high clouds except later in the
period when some more significant clouds will start moving into
south/southwest areas.  Will include some patchy fog again late
tonight mainly near bodies of water as has been the case these past
few nights.  Will make minor tweaks to MAV temps, mainly to lower
most min temps for tonight.  .

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)...At the start of the
period the deep trough axis will be located generally over Missouri
and Arkansas with the associated cold front approaching Middle
Tennessee. The motion of the front will be slowly eastward as will
the precipitation along the boundary. The southeasterly flow off the
Appalachians will likely produce a rain shadow across much of
northeast TN Sunday night whereas the southern TN Valley will have
the best chance of measurable precipitation before sunrise Monday
morning. However, shortly after sunrise expect showers to overspread
the entire forecast area Monday.

Model solutions today seem rather progressive in moving the
precipitation out of the region fairly quickly (by late Monday
night). The kicker system replaces this shortwave by Tuesday
afternoon and will bring some much cooler air into the forecast
area. If you thought it was warm for this time of year, you may miss
those warmer days by Wednesday where the high temperatures will only
be in the 40s and 50s! Any precipitation associated with this
stronger trough could produce some snowflakes in the highest
elevations while most lower elevations will experience liquid
droplets Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

Dry conditions prevail with gradual warming through the remainder of
the week as the next storm system ramps up back to the west. Another
frontal boundary will produce increasing chances for rain as early
as Friday night through Sunday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             55  80  65  69 /   0  10  60  90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  52  77  60  70 /   0   0  20  90
Oak Ridge, TN                       52  79  61  68 /   0   0  20  90
Tri Cities Airport, TN              46  77  56  67 /   0   0  10  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

LW/AC



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