Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 151541
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1141 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the region today, then weak high
pressure builds in tonight and Saturday. The next cold front
crosses our area Sunday. Yet another cold front may pass
through Monday before high pressure returns for the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1140 AM, surface low pressure was centered near the Lower
Hudson Valley. This will pull a cold front across our area
through the afternoon into early this evening. A wind shift from
the northwest is occurring with the front with also an uptick
in the winds. The wind is also increasing ahead of the front as
boundary layer mixing is deepening. Forcing for ascent is weak
overall and instability is rather weak. The shower activity has
really dissipated with the exception of a weakening band in far
northwestern New Jersey back into the southern Poconos. Made
some adjustments to the PoPs to better reflect the radar trends.
The mid level cloud canopy has thinned allowing for more
filtered sunshine, however some thicker clouds are approaching
from the west and southwest.

Otherwise, we will see some better forcing arrive late
afternoon into the early evening as the front makes its way
across extreme southern New Jersey and the southern Delmarva.
This may result in some uptick in showers in far southern New
Jersey and Delmarva. While a rumble of thunder across these
areas cannot be ruled out later this afternoon, the instability
is very limited and therefore opted to not carry a thunder
mention in the forecast. High temperatures will still be warm,
in the 60s and 70s, but with the 70s limited to areas where the
front hasn`t come through in the afternoon, mainly along and
south and east of the I-95 corridor.

As the front clears the region this evening, the sky will start
to clear from the northwest and cooler temperatures will arrive
as high pressure builds in for the overnight period. Expect
temperatures to cool into the upper 30s and low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A relatively quiet weekend is ahead. Weak high pressure slides by
just to the south and will be in control through Saturday.
Temperatures will climb into the upper 50s/low 60s. High pressure
moves offshore on Saturday Night with a cold front approaching as an
area of low pressure skates by to the north. This front will not
have much moisture to work with, and only have a 15-20% chance of
showers north of I-78 for Sunday morning as the front moves through.
Not expecting much of an impact overall and for most of the region,
this will be a dry frontal passage.

The cold air will accompany the secondary front passing on Monday,
with temperatures on Sunday expected to be mild yet again. Looking
at another day in the upper 50s/low 60s with some mid 60s within the
Delmarva peninsula. Cooler, more seasonable air begins to filter in
on Sunday night with lows mainly in the 30s with upper 20s in the
Poconos and lower 40s in southern Delmarva.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Relatively benign in the long term overall with below normal
temperatures for most of next week with a few weak systems
potentially moving through.

A stretch of below-normal temperatures looks to begin on Monday.
Long-range guidance continues to suggest a reinforcing cold front
arriving on Monday, with a few showers possible ahead of the front
on Monday, mainly across the Poconos, northern Lehigh Valley, and
far northern New Jersey. Can`t fully rule out the chance for some
flurries or snow showers during the day Monday either, most likely
in the southern Poconos. As a result of the front, a period of below
normal temperatures is expected Monday through Wednesday, with
highs for the most part in the 40s with southern areas getting
into the low 50s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s/low
30s. Tuesday looks to be the coldest day overall as 850 mb
temperatures are -10C, translating to surface temperatures in
the low to mid 40s.

Brisk northwest flow in the wake of the secondary front could result
in some breezy days through the middle of the week, with some of the
guidance showing gusts in the 20-30 MPH range during the day. The
upper level trough is slow to pull away with a few shortwaves likely
moving through within the northwest flow. This could result in some
rain/snow showers at times for the Poconos/northwest NJ, but nothing
impactful overall.

Temperatures return to more seasonal levels towards the end of next
week as more zonal flow takes over.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of today...VFR overall with a few showers around as a cold
front moves through. If any restrictions with the showers were
to occur they will be brief and limited. Southwest to west
winds 10-15 knots with some gusts to 20-25 knots, becoming
northwest. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR ceilings overall, which will start to clear some from
the northwest overnight. Some showers possible this evening
mainly south and east of ILG. North-northwest winds diminishing
to 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday through Saturday Night...VFR. West/northwest winds in the
morning will become south/southwesterly for the afternoon and
overnight hours. Wind speeds around 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Sunday through Sunday Night...Primarily VFR. Slight chance (15%) of
showers near KABE, but otherwise dry for most. West/northwest winds
around 10-15 kt, gusting 20-25 during the day decreasing to 5-10 kt
at night. Low confidence.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR. West/northwest winds 10-15 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines expected through Friday night.

SW winds this morning around 15 kts with gusts up to around 20 kts
through the afternoon before a cold front pushes through, turning
winds to the NW around 10-15 kts by Friday night. Seas 2-4 feet.

Outlook...

Saturday through Saturday Night...No marine headlines anticipated.
Winds will become southwesterly around 10-20 kt by the late morning.
Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Sunday...No marine headlines anticipated. West/southwest winds 10-15
kt gusting up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Sunday Night...No marine headlines anticipated.  North/northwest
winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Monday through Tuesday...SCA conditions likely (70%) as
west/northwest winds will increase to around 20 kt, with gusts 25-30
kt possible. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich/Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...Gorse/MJL
SHORT TERM...Hoeflich
LONG TERM...Hoeflich
AVIATION...Gorse/Hoeflich/MJL
MARINE...Hoeflich/MJL


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