Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 300950
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
350 AM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016

...Scattered Thunderstorms to Continue...

Another round of storms will develop over southern Colorado today.
There are subtle differences in the pattern compared to yesterday.
Today`s storms will tend to develop over the mountains during the
early afternoon and then try to spread east across the plains
through the late afternoon and evening hours.  Over the past couple
of days, storms have been tied to distinct disturbances and
boundaries moving southeast through the plains.  Today, the upper
ridge will expand eastward a bit, keeping any southeastward moving
disturbances farther at bay to the north and east of the area.  With
the eastward expansion of the upper ridge, monsoonal moisture will
lean in over the mountains, increasing the activity in those areas
compared to previous days.  Later in the day through the evening,
some of that activity will attempt to make it`s way eastward across
the I-25 corridor and eastern plains. The surface winds on the
plains will have more of a downslope component than in previous days
so convection across the plains may not thrive as well as in
previous days.  The downslope component may tend to dry out the
lower levels a bit as afternoon mixing gets underway, thus lowering
CAPES.  Also with the expanding ridge will come less environmental
wind shear today.  So, the overall potential for strong to severe
convection will be lower than in previous days.  However, as the
atmosphere dries, this will increase the convective wind gust
potential, so strong winds may become more of a concern. In any
event, still a chance for storms today.  The Storm Prediction Center
has the marginal and severe risk areas well north of southern
Colorado today, up where the better shear is.  So, maybe, just
maybe, a down day with regard to the severe weather threat.  Still
have to watch for the severe or near-severe wind gust threat though.
Also, need to keep an eye out for monsoonal convection producing
excessive amounts of rain over burn scars and other flash flood
prone areas in the mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016

No big changes in on going forecast as models continue to indicate
generally weak westerly flow aloft across the region for Sunday and
Monday, as upper level high pressure across the Desert SW and
southern Great Basin slowly builds east across the Southern Rockies.
Models continue to indicate mid and upper level moisture increasing
under the building ridge. This supports better chances of afternoon
and evening storms over and near the higher terrain each day, with
lesser chances of storms across the eastern plains with subsidence
and warm air aloft under the building ridge. Weak flow aloft will
support slow movement of storms and increasing potential for
localized flash flooding into early next week. With the increased
convective activity, temperatures look to be around seasonal
averages, though will likely spike to above seasonal readings across
the plains Sunday and Monday as the high moves across the region.

Tuesday-Friday...Flow aloft becomes more southwest through the
middle to end of next week with the upper high pushed south and east
of the Colorado, as a Pac NW trough translates east across the
Northern Tier. Models continue to indicate abundant monsoonal
moisture translating across the area within the weak southwest flow
aloft supporting good chances of daily showers and storms over and
near the higher terrain. In addition, short waves associated with
the passing upper trough progged to send occasional fronts across
the eastern plains, bringing in better low level moisture and
supporting better chances of storms across the plains. With that
said, will have to watch for the potential of heavy rainfall and
flash flooding across all of south central and southeast Colorado
through the end of next week. Temperatures at to slightly above
seasonal levels early in the period look to trend to around and
slightly cooler than average through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Some MVFR CIGS, patchy morning fog and spotty showers or storms
possible over parts of the plains early this morning. Otherwise,
generally VFR over the flight area through about 18Z.  Upper ridge
of high pressure will expand eastward over the flight area today,
decreasing the overall storm coverage and intensity across the
plains. However, as the upper ridge expands eastward, it will allow
monsoon moisture to lean in over the mountains, likely increasing
storm coverage in those areas. Primary storm threats today will be
lightning, wind gusts to around 50 mph, small hail and spotty heavy
rain.

For the TAF sites...some MVFR CIGS and patchy fog possible at or
near the KCOS and KPUB terminals early this morning, until around 15
or 16Z.  Both sites may possibly see thunderstorms in the vicinity
during the mid to late afternoon hours so VCTS for those sites after
about 20 and 21Z, respectively.  For KALS, generally VFR into the
afternoon with the possibility of VCTS at that site as well after
about 20Z.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW


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