000
FXUS65 KPUB 261014
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
414 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 414 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Currently...

Lots of low clouds were noted over the plains and extending westward
into the central Ark Rvr Valley to just east of Salida. Some very
light rain was noted in a couple of the obs close to the mtns. Over
the remainder of the region skies were clear. It was quite moist
over the plains as dwpts were in the 50s to around 60F. The higher
dwpts extended back west into the valleys as 40s and 50s were noted
in the SLV and Upper Ark Rvr Valley. Even Leadville had a 37F dwpt
at 3 am this morning.

Today...

Morning clouds over the plains will gradually decrease during the
mid to late morning time period. Clouds should gradually decrease
from NW to SE as the morning progresses.

Nearly the entire fcst area is under marginal risk for strong to
severe storms today. Given the progged CAPE and marginal shear this
is warranted, although believe storms will be less intense as they
were yesterday based on a variety of short range guidance products.
Conceptually, this looks realistic as I dont believe we will see the
boundary interactions that we say yesterday. Nearly all guidance
does not show convection firing until after 20 UTC (2 pm) today and
most of this convection is along the mtns/plains interface. Overall,
expect a late show with regards to convection over the region this
afternoon.

One concern we may have today is burn scar flooding. Convection will
initially be concentrated over the higher terrain today. Given the
good moisture in the mtns and relatively slow southeast storm
movement, locally heavy rains may fall on the burn scar regions
today.

Max temp today should be in the 80s across the plains and valleys.

Tonight...

Thunderstorms are expected to be more scattered across the plains
during the early evening time period, especially during the 00-04Z
time frame. Expect the best coverage along the I-25 corridor region
and Raton Mesa areas. Expect activity to end prior to midnight as
flow at 700 transitions to SW`erly and dries out. Based on this, do
not expect low clouds over the plains tonight. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 414 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Tuesday-Wednesday...A short wave embedded within the moderate
westerly flow aloft across the region progged to move across the
Northern Rockies through the day Tuesday, with dry westerly flow
continuing across the area on Wednesday. Passing wave will help to
initiate isolated to scattered showers and storms across the area
Tuesday afternoon, with a few strong to severe storms possible along
a developing dryline across the far southeast plains Tuesday
evening. Breezy westerly flow to help boost temps back to well above
seasonal levels Tuesday, along with possible fire weather concerns
across the higher terrain, though not confident enough to go with
any highlights attm. Passing wave sends a weak backdoor front across
the eastern plains early Wednesday. Models are indicating moisture
lagging behind the front, although can`t rule out a few showers or
storms along and north of the Palmer Dvd Wednesday afternoon. With
weak upslope flow developing, will see highs on Wednesday just a tad
cooler than Tuesday.

Thursday-Sunday...Another stronger embedded wave moves across the
Rockies Thursday with another round of isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and storms, and another backdoor front moving
across he area Friday, bringing cooler temperatures once again on
Friday. Upper level ridging across the Desert SW progged to build
into the Great Basin bringing weak northwesterly flow aloft across
the area into next weekend. This will keep daily chances of storms
across the area, with the best coverage over and near the higher
terrain. Temperatures look to be at or slightly above seasonal
levels into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 414 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Low cigs will continue over KCOS and KPUB into at least the mid
morning hours. KALS should remain clear.

Isold TSRA may occur at all 3 taf sites late this afternoon and
early evening. Brief pds of mvfr along with gusty winds will be
possible. VFR expected tonight as drier air moves into southeast
Colorado.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH