000
FXUS65 KPUB 012121
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
321 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

CONVECTION A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
SLIGHTLY INCREASED INSTABILITY AIDING IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE...USUAL CROP OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH SOME TSRA ALSO
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS IN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
RATON MESA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE...WITH MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING SANGRES/WETS AND I-25
CORRIDOR FROM PUEBLO SOUTHWARD HAVING THE GREATEST COVERAGE. STORM
INTENSITY SO FAR HAS BEEN FAIRLY WEAK WITH ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY...THOUGH A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL STILL LOOK
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY BETTER ACROSS
LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. STORM CHANCES FARTHER NORTH ACROSS EL PASO/
TELLER COUNTIES AND ON THE PLAINS ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
LOOK LOWER...AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WAS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE PALMER DIVIDE WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S AT KMNH AND
KLIC. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END BY MIDNIGHT MOST
LOCATIONS...LINGERING LONGEST NEAR THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE IS
SLIGHTLY MORE PLENTIFUL.

ON SUN...AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SUSPECT
WE`LL SEE LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION EAST OF I-25...WHILE MOUNTAINS SEE
STORMS BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND HIGH BASED AS LOW LEVELS DRY OUT.
BEST COVERAGE OF TSRA WILL BE NEAR THE NM BORDER AS DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE CLOSE BY OVER NRN NM. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW
UPWARD CLIMB...AND WITH MORE SUN OVER THE PLAINS READINGS WILL RISE
WELL INTO THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE WRAPPING NORTH ACROSS
COLORADO. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING THAT THIS PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WEST...HOWEVER THERE IS PRETTY HIGH ENSEMBLE
SPREAD AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FACTOR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCE TRACK APPEARS TO BE WEST...ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO
UTAH. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION...SATURDAY EVENING...AND SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS. CELL MOTIONS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON AREA BURN SCARS.
NOT MUCH MOVEMENT EAST OFF THE MOUNTAINS IS ANTICIPATED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LOWER TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE
SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND WILL HELP FLATTEN AND SHIFT THE
UPPER RIDGE EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP USHER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND FORCE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING DAILY ROUNDS OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO HELP THESE STORMS TO SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR
FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WHAT AREAS AND HOW STRONG STORMS BECOME WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT ROTATE NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH 80S ACROSS THE REGION. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL KEEP VCTS IN ALL TAFS UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
BET CHANCE FOR STORMS THROUGH 00Z WILL BE NEAR KPUB...WITH STORMS
LINGERING UNTIL 03Z-04Z AT KALS WHERE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE DEEPER.
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/BRIEF IFR UNDER SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AFTER 06Z AS TSRA AND DEEPER MOISTURE
SINK SOUTH INTO NM. FOR SAT...LESS THREAT OF TSRA AT TAF SITES AS
MOST ACTIVITY WILL STAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN