000
FXUS65 KPUB 131731
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1031 AM MST FRI DEC 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST FRI DEC 13 2013

AN UPR LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVR AZ...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN
OPEN WAVE TODAY AND THE UPR TROF WL MOVE EASTWARD ACRS SRN CO AND
NM.  THE MAIN ENERGY AND MSTR WITH THIS SYSTEM WL BE OVR NM AND SO
THE WEATHER OVR THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.  COOLER
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE UPR TROF BRINGS COOLING ALOFT...AND
A SFC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  FOR
MOST AREAS GO WITH HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE.  GUIDANCE
TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE MUCH TOO WARM FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE THE
COLD AIR WL REMAIN TRAPPED.

TONIGHT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVR THE FORECAST
AREA AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL
MTS...AND MAYBE EVEN TO ERN MTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST FRI DEC 13 2013

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEHIND A PASSING SHORT WAVE BECOMES
MORE NORTHWEST AND SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND AN COOL AIRMASS BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE WILL
KEEP SATURDAY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. MORNING CLOUDS LOOKS TO SLOWLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WHERE CAA AND
THE NORTHERLY FLOW COULD KEEP LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ONGOING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS. WARMING ALOFT
PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...OWNING
TO HIGHS WARMING BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR SUNDAY. THE
FLOW ALOFT KEEPS LEE TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR
WITH BREEZY WESTERLY GAP FLOWS KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS UP OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE CORRIDOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ENOUGH MIXING TO
SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR TRAPPED IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW COAST ON WEDNESDAY IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
AND ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...OPENING UP THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE MERIDIONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LATEST MODELS ARE KEEPING THE COLD AIR NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT PLUNGING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHERE
THE AXIS OF COLDEST AIR WILL BE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR (H7 TEMPS -24C TO -32C) ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WHEREAS THE LATEST EC IS FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIR. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST FRI DEC 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS NEXT 24H. A
WEAK COOL FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND WINDS
AT KCOS AND KPUB WILL BE NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL BE A BIT GUSTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH