000
FXUS65 KPUB 142122
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
322 PM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014

OLD UPPER LOW OVER AZ SPREADING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NM AND SOUTHERN
CO THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO RANGE IN NRN NM. ELSEWHERE JUST A FEW CLOUDS ALONG
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPS. EXPECT A FEW
-SHSN/-SHRA TO LINGER OVER THE SAN JUANS/SRN SANGRES/SRN SAN LUIS
VALLEY INTO THE EVENING...THOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AS BETTER DYNAMIC LIFT STAYS SOUTH ACROSS NM. EXPECT SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TO END BY MIDNIGHT...THEN ATTENTION TURNS
NORTHWARD AS NEXT UPPER WAVE IS ALREADY DIVING QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHSN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY EARLY SAT MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES...AND A
FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES MAY REACH THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AROUND
SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY REASONABLY MILD MOST AREAS AS
WINDS AND CLOUDS KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH
COLORADO...ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOST LOCATIONS. BEST DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WHERE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE PRECIP ELSEWHERE WILL BE LIGHTER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHERE MAINLY SPRINKLES/BRIEF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE STRONG NORTH WINDS...AS
LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS COME INTO ALIGNMENT OVER THE PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROMOTE MIXING. 700 MB
FLOW INCREASES INTO THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE BY 21Z WITH A FEW 50 KNOT
FLAGS IN THE 00Z-03Z PERIOD. THUS EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO GUST ABOVE
30 KNOTS ALONG AND EAST OF I-25...A FEW 40-45 KNOT GUSTS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SHALLOW CONVECTION DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT WE`LL BE DEALING WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
OVER THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY FROM CROWLEY/OTERO COUNTIES
EASTWARD...AND WILL INSERT A MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY BOOST MAXES ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE 50S...THOUGH TEMPS MAY TOP OUT EARLY AND THEN
SLOWLY FALL BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014

AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD...SATURDAY EVENING...MOST OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE STATE AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTH
AWAY FROM THE REGION. BEST CHANCE OF ANY REMAINING POPS WILL BE OVER
THE CO/NM BORDER AND ACROSS THE C MTN REGION. IT WILL STILL BE WINDY
OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
WINDS WILL KEEP UP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. I EXPECT WE WILL
STILL BE SEEING WINDS IN THE G35-40 MPH RANGE AROUND SUNSET OVER
THE FAR E PLAINS.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE QUITE NICE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY WIND IS
ANTICIPATED AND IT WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...WITH
MAX TEMPS AOA 55-60F PLAINS....50S VALLEYS.

MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE A FIRE WX DAY. NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL BE
DROPPING IN AND THIS WILL TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT ALOFT. LAPSE RATES
OF 7-8F AND INCREASING 700 MB WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE I-25
CORRIDOR LIKELY SEEING VERY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. SPC
DOES NOT HAVE THE REGION OUTLOOKED YET BUT I EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. OTHERWISE...MONDAY WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 80F...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER ARK
RVR VALLEY.

FOR MON/NITE TUES...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMING
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME
PRECIP TO THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE EC IS THE MOST
PROMISING OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS OPTIMISTIC. FOR
NOW PAINTED SCTD POPS OVER THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE C MTNS...AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THIS TROUGH
IS FCST TO SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION SO SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MAY LINGER
INTO WED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AT THE END OF THE WEEK...FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY ZONAL AND DRY WITH
TEMPS MODERATING INTO THE 60S. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KALS...KCOS AND KPUB THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT KCOS THIS
AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS AT KPUB AND KALS. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL 06Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND THE
SOUTHERN SANGRES. ON SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
MORNING AT KPUB AND KCOS...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS 15-16Z. WINDS WILL
BECOME EVEN STRONGER AFTER 18Z...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS 18Z-02Z.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS 15Z-
00Z...THOUGH ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND SHORT-LIVED. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME BLOWING DUST AT KPUB AFTER 18Z. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY
OBSCURED BY -SHSN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SAT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN