000
FXUS65 KPUB 300535
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1135 PM MDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Western CO convection rather slow to spread east so far today,
though a few showers have finally made it into the central mts as of
20z. Models suggest showers or weak thunderstorms will remain along
the continental divide overnight, with just a few spill-over lighter
showers over the mountains farther east. Fairly dense cirrus
overcast should cover much of the area after sunset, holding min
temps up slightly versus the past few nights. On Fri, swrn U.S.
upper wave lifts out across CO, which should increase upward motion
and lead to better coverage of tsra over the mountains by afternoon.
Valleys and I-25 corridor could see a couple cells drift off the
higher terrain by late in the day, so will keep isolated pops in
place most lower elevations. Far eastern plains will miss out on
precip during the day, and will keep tsra mention out of zones east
of the interstate. Max temps will likely drift downward a few degf
over the mountains and interior valleys with clouds/precip, while
readings across the plains remain similar to Thu maxes.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Models and ensembles continue to have trouble early next week with
the pattern evolution. The GFS is an outlier compared to the ECMWF
and Canadian solutions, while the ensemble solutions have high
spreads with track and strength.

Friday night through Sunday...high pressure will settle over the
central plains with an upper level storm system strengthening
along the Pacific Northwest. This will keep southern Colorado
under broad southwesterly flow with embedded energy moving across
the region. Expect showers and thunderstorms to be ongoing Friday
evening, initially over the mountains, spreading east into the
I-25 corridor through the overnight hours. Models vary on how far
east showers and thunderstorms will make it before they dissipate.

On Saturday, the next upper disturbance will eject across
Colorado. Continued showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the mountains, especially the Continental Divide. Models are in
agreement with activity spreading northeast, across Teller County
into the Palmer Divide Saturday evening before moving away from
the area. Expect a lull in activity on Sunday with generally dry
conditions forecast across the region.

Temperatures will remain warm with upper 70s to mid 80s across the
lower elevations, while overnight lows remain in the upper 40s to
mid 50s.

Monday into Thursday...there is still a lot of forecast
uncertainty with the track and strength of the upper level low
forecast to move across the Great Basin and into the area. There
will likely be fire weather concerns Monday into Tuesday, followed
by much cooler weather Wednesday into Thursday.

The GFS solution has a more southern storm track, taking the upper
level low out of the Great Basin, and across Colorado before
ejecting it to the northeast. This would bring strong winds to
southern Colorado along with mixing of drier air to the surface
across the plains leading to elevated fire weather concerns for
Monday and Tuesday. We will need to monitor these conditions. In
addition, the GFS develops more widespread showers and snowfall
over the mountains Monday into Tuesday. The ECMWF and Canadian
solutions are much further north with the storm track, lifting it
out of the Great Basin into the northern plains. Wind would still
be an issue Monday into Tuesday along with elevated fire weather
concerns. The main difference would be chances for precipitation.
The more northerly track would keep most of southern Colorado dry
with a few showers confined to the Central Mountains.

Colder air will help lower snow levels over the mountains. Snow
amounts will depend highly on the upper storm track, with the GFS
bringing several inches of accumulation to the continental divide.
The ECMWF solution would only bring light snow to the peaks of the
Central Mountains.

Temperatures will be cooler with model guidance suggesting 50s to
60s for highs by mid week, while overnight lows would fall into
the mid 30s for the plains. There may need to be the for frost
advisories for portions of the plains. At this time it does not
appear a freeze is expected, but if guidance comes in cooler,
Thursday morning may need freeze highlights.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

VFR conditions expected to prevail at COS, PUB and ALS over the
next 24 hours. Latest models continue to indicate moisture and a
minor disturbance embedded within the southwest flow aloft will
help to develop scattered showers and storms over and near the
higher terrain tomorrow afternoon and evening, with the best
coverage of storms across the central mts and into the Pikes Peak
region. With that said, can not rule out the potential for storms
to move across the terminals between 21z-03z, though the
probability remains too low to include anything more the VC at
this time.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW