Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 180522

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1022 PM MST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM MST Sun Dec 17 2017

Upper low along the AZ/Mexico border this afternoon with weakening
trough lifting newrd through the srn plains. Post frontal stratus
has finally dissipated across the region, though persistent
mid/upper level cloud deck along and east of the mountains was
helping hold max temps across the region. Overnight, weak nrn stream
upper trough drags across the region, but will have little impact
other than to stir up the wind slightly over the mountains as it
passes. Overnight mins will end up rather cold at many locations as
drier air and clearing skies help maximize radiational cooling. On
Monday, westerly flow deepens across the region while upper level
low pressure remains well south across NM. Should see much warmer
maxes all areas as mid levels warm and downslope flow develops.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM MST Sun Dec 17 2017

Models and ensembles continue to remain consistent from run to run
with higher confidence in winter finally showing up in southern
Colorado. Much colder temperatures are on the way, along with
increased chances for snow across the region.

Monday night through Wednesday...flat high pressure will move east
across Colorado through the period before the next upper storm
system arrives late Wednesday. Expect dry conditions through this
period across southern Colorado. The exception will be the Central
Mountains late Wednesday afternoon as energy starts to move into
the western part of the state. Temperatures will warm with 50s on
Tuesday, and 60s on Wednesday. There may be near critical fire
weather conditions near the Kansas border Wednesday afternoon due
to low humidity values and gusty winds.

Wednesday night through Thursday upper level storm
system is forecast to drop out of the Pacific Northwest, across
Utah and into Central Texas through this period. An initial cold
front will arrive Wednesday night with a northerly wind shift
across the Plains. A second, stronger front will drop south across
the Plains Thursday morning. Strong north winds, gusting in excess
of 30 mph are expected Thursday afternoon across the Plains.
Temperatures are expected to remain fairly steady with 30s to
lower 40s for highs. As for precipitation, mountain areas will see
snow beginning Wednesday night, clearing by Friday morning.
Locations along the Continental Divide, and especially the Central
Mountains will see the best snowfall, with around 6 to 10 inches
possible. Over the Plains, expect a quick moving band to drop
south behind the cold front late Thursday afternoon and evening.
Accumulating snow will likely remain confined to the Eastern
Mountains, Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa areas, generally above
6500 feet. Even so, only a couple of inches are possible.

Friday through Sunday...the upper system will move off to the east
on Friday with a lull in activity expected. There may be light
snow from time to time over the Central Mountains through the day.
Highs will top out in the lower to mid 30s on Friday.

Models in good agreement with a trough dropping south across the
Great Basin and high pressure dropping south out of central
Canada. This will bring in much colder air for the weekend. In
addition, expect easterly upslope flow to develop across the
Plains that will persist through the weekend. This has the
potential to be a set up across the Plains for prolonged, light,
fluffy snowfall due to the upslope low level flow, weak energy
moving across Colorado and very cold air over the region. Highs
over the weekend will likely be in the teens, with maybe a few
lower 20s.  This will have to be watched closely due to the busy
travel period just before the holiday. Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1021 PM MST Sun Dec 17 2017

VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, kpub, kals and kcos. Winds will be quite light and
diurnally driven.




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