Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 300525

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1125 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016

Issued at 1025 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Quick update to incorporate latest obs data, and to remove
thunderstorms from the forecast through 15z Tue. Kept isolated
showers along the KS/CO border. Moore


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Filling upper low continues to circulate across northern New
Mexico which has put eastern Colorado under deep easterly upslope
flow. Thunderstorms developed fairly early this afternoon across
El Paso County bringing widespread flash flooding to southern and
eastern portions of Colorado Springs. This activity is shifting
slowly southward as outflow boundaries push southeastward and cool
stabilized airmass remains banked up along the mountains.
Activity elsewhere has been more sparse...but suspect
thunderstorms will become more active all along the I-25 corridor
and within the deformation band region across western CO. This
will put burn scars and other soil susceptible areas in and near
the mountains under the risk for potential flash flooding through
at least the evening hours. Thunderstorms should diminish by
midnight for the mountain areas...but will maintain pops across
most of the southeast plains overnight where thunderstorms may
linger into the morning hours on Tuesday.

With filling upper low still lingering of Colorado on
Tuesday...expect another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Models are less widespread with QPF on Tuesday...but
with lingering moisture still over the region...risk for flash
flooding on burn scars and areas with saturated soils will remain
elevated. For now focus looks best for the southeast mountains
where weak upslope flow will remain in place. CAPE and shear look storm strengths may not be as great as past couple
days...but heavy rain potential will remain. Temperatures will
remain below climatological normals. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Old upper low fills and shears out to the east within the upper
ridge for Wednesday. Moisture plume and remnant deformation band
shifts slightly eastward as well...but even across the western
mountains...things don`t really dry out much. Dew points will
remain in the 40s Wednesday afternoon...with 50s across the
southeast plains. Deep layer shears remain weak...and CAPE
generally less than 1000 J/ not much of a severe
thunderstorm threat anticipated. But with weak steering currents
aloft...and potential for slow storm motions...localized flash
flooding will remain the primary storm threat. Temperatures will
remain below normal. Frontal boundary sags southward...and best
threat for lingering thunderstorms into the overnight hours will
stay across southern and far eastern sections.

Upper ridge shifts eastward putting CO under southwesterly flow
for the remainder of the work week into next weekend. The tap of
moisture from the south will isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible each day. Temperatures will return
to near to slightly above normal by Friday. Thunderstorms will
taper back to more isolated in coverage for the weekend as drier
air tries to make a better push eastward into the area. Another
upper trof moves into the western US with northern stream portion
crossing the Rockies into the northern plains on Monday. This may
send another front into southeast Colorado for Monday bringing
another cool down and uptick in showers and thunderstorms for the
southeast plains early next week. -KT


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

VFR conditions are expected across much of the forecast area over
the next 24 hrs. Convection is expected to develop over the higher
terrain again between 16z-18z, with thunderstorms crossing the
three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS by 20-21z. LLVL sfc
winds are forecast to be out of the east from late morning through
the aftn. Moore


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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