000
FXUS65 KPUB 111727
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

THE UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...
ALLOWING FOR MSTR TO CONTINUE WORKING ITS WAY AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE INTO THE WRN HALF OF CO.  FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL LOOK DRY FOR TODAY.  HI RES FORECAST MODELS
INDICATING CONVECTIVE PCPN BEGINNING IN THE LATE MORNING HRS ALONG
THE CONTDVD AND BY NOON THERE MAY BE FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE ERN
MTS.  THEN BY MID AFTERNOON A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. THEN BY EVENING A FEW MAY
SPREAD EVEN FARTHER EAST OVR THE SERN PLAINS...BUT LOCATIONS NR THE
KS BORDER ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WL
AGAIN MEAN SLOW MOVING STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS. A FRONT MOVING INTO THE PALMER DVD AREA
AROUND 00Z IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MSTR TO
THAT AREA.  THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MSTR HELPS INCREASE CAPE
VALUES TO AROUND 1700 J/KG IN THE EVENING OVR NORTHEAST EL PASO
COUNTY.  THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO HELP INITIATE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THAT AREA. BY LATE EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WL DECREASE OR END IN
MOST AREAS...BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY ALONG THE CONTDVD.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL AGAIN BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACRS THE SERN
PLAINS...WITH AROUND AVERAGE READINGS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...A COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH
THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS IS SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BY
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PASSING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATE SATURDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACKING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND MINOR EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES CIRCULATING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD HELP SPARK SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS OWNING TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AND INCREASED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
ESPECIALLY FOR AREA BURN SCARS. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE STRATUS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE MONSOONAL PLUME ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY WITH
THE ECMWF PUSHING THE PLUME SOUTH OF THE STATE...WHERE AS THE GFS
KEEPS THE PLUME IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE. AT ANY RATE...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE MTS ONCE AGAIN...AS PLAINS MAY BE TOO
STABLE.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS
THE STATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
HIGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DIGS INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AND WEDENSDAY...AS TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AND WARMER AIR WORKS BACK ACROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY AND INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCTS FOR KPUB...AS WELL AS
MAINTAINING VCTS FOR KCOS AND KALS THIS AFTN AND EVE. MINIMAL
STORM MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY...SO STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE LOWER VSBYS
AND CIGS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE