Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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100 FXUS65 KPUB 092048 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 248 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rather heavy qpf for our S mtns, especially tonight, with heavy wet snow likely for the higher elevations of the S Mtn areas. - Overall very beneficial wet wx system for the southern mtns and adj I-25 corridor region, however far eastern plains will likely remain dry. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue over the area (most numerous in the mountains) from Friday into Sunday, then a slow drying trend develops early next week. - Snow levels waver between 9K-10K feet from Friday night into the weekend, which will limit any additional snow accums to mainly the higher peaks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 243 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 Currently... Scattered showers were noted over a good part of the region at 2 pm, with lots of clouds region-wide. Best concentration of precip was noted over the greater San Luis Valley region and adj mtns. Temps were in the 60s far east plains, 50s I-25 corridor and 40s and 50s valleys. A general N-NE flow as noted in the low levels over the region. Overview... Guidance is predicting an overall rather impressive wet system to move over the region during the next 24 hours, with the brunt of the qpf occurring tonight over the greater southern mtn region, with the max occurring over the N Sangres and Wet mtns. Overall values at first glance look a bit overdone but guidance is not holding back at 1 to 2" liquid amounts occurring over parts of the region. For now cut back a bit on QPF but will not cut back too much. Any snow in the mtns will be quite wet, and will compress, but I would not be too surprised if we see a foot or more over the higher elevations of the Sangres and Wets. Guidance was also showing rather high values for the San Valley Floor, but have cut back somewhat on these values. Overall given the deep upslope flow and nice warm air advection pattern at mid levels, a good part of our fcst area should do well qpf-wise with this system. Tonight... Brunt of precip will come through tonight, especially during the predawn hours. Wet mtns (especially east slopes), N Sangres and greater Wet Mtn valley region should see the highest amounts. Expect to see 3 to 6 inches in the Wet Mtn valley with amounts over a foot for the Wets and N Sangres. Snow will also fall on the SLV floor but overall accums should be light San Juans (especially east slopes), the central mtns and the N Fremont county should see widespread 4 to 8 inch amounts, N El Paso county will also see some snow but accums should primarily be on the exposed surfaces. Teller/PP should see 3 to 10 inches. The I-25 corridor will also see beneficial precip, with 0.1 to 0.3 inch values by sunrise, but areas east of there may not see much, if any, precip with this system during this time period. With deep upslope developing tonight, modest easterly flow will push over the S mtns into the San Luis vally, and some breezy east winds will occur over the SLV floor tonight, especially in the Great Sand Dunes region and La Veta Pass. It will this easterly flow which will enhance the snowfall over the eastern slopes of the San Juans tonight and into tomorrow. Some isolated rumbles of thunder will be possible during this period. Tomorrow... Showery precip will continue over the sam areas where it will fall tonight, but is expected to be much lighter. However the focus areas during the daylight hours of tomorrow will be over the CONTDVD region and the N sangres/Fremont county regions. Brunt of precip tomorrow will go over to mainly rain showers, except highest elevations. Temps will be cool over the mtns, SLV, and I-25 corridor region with temps in the 50s, with 30s and 40s mtns. Farther east on the plains it will remain dry once again with temps warming into the 60s to around 70F over the far eastern plains. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 243 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 Friday night-Sunday night...The retrograding upper low into the Great Basin Friday night remains progged to slowly lift back out across the Central Rockies through the day Sunday, keeping unsettled weather in the forecast through Mother`s Day weekend. There looks to be a brief break in shower activity Friday night, especially across eastern Colorado, before showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage again Saturday morning across the higher terrain, especially the southern mtns and the along the ContDvd, with modest southwesterly orographic flow aloft ahead of the upper system translating into the Rockies. Scattered to numerous showers and storms over and near the Saturday morning and afternoon continue to spread east across the immediate adjacent plains and out across the far southeast Plains through the afternoon and evening, as instability increases with the passing system. Showers wane some through Saturday night and increase in coverage once again Sunday late morning and afternoon. With limited shear and moisture return (dew pts in the 40s to low 50s) the threat of severe weather and heavy precipitation is not expected across the region, as well as a lull in critical fire weather conditions. Snow levels are expected to waver between 9K-10K feet during through this period, which will limit any additional snowfall to mainly the higher peaks through out the rest of the weekend. As for temperatures, generally at and below seasonal levels are expected through the weekend with highs in the 60s to low 70s across the Plains, and mainly 40s and 50s across the higher terrain, save for 30s at the peaks. Monday-Tuesday...Warmer and drier weather remains in the offing as upper level ridging builds across the region early next week. There looks to be enough moisture in place to support isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms, which mainly stay over the higher terrain. Wednesday-Thursday...Models differ on the timing and location of the next system moving across the region through the middle of next week, with the latest GFS stronger and further south with the system, as compared with the ECMWF solutions. Either way, models indicate increasing chances of precipitation on Wednesday, along with cooler temperatures as a front pushes south across the region. Drier west to northwest flow to prevail across the region on Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1120 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024 Conditions will deteriorate to mvfr/ifr by this evening at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. in the meantime, cigs will slowly decrease this afternoon as upslope develops as an areas of low pressure develops over the greater 4 corners region. Showers are expected at all of the taf sites by later this evening and lasting into tomorrow morning. Some snow will be possible at KALS later tonight, but any accums should be mainly on grassy areas. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Friday for COZ058-060- 061-063-066-068-072>076-079>082. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...HODANISH