Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 170952
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
352 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering mountain showers decrease after midday Sunday.

- A warming trend with chances of showers into the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

We`ll have very ambiguous flow aloft during the short term forecast
period (Sunday 6am - Monday 6am) as there is a closed low over the
desert southwest and a more broad trough located to the northeast
which leaves Colorado in between. The main forcings today will be
from a weak surface cold from and little ripples of vorticity being
emitted from the closed low to the southwest. The result will be
scattered showers over the southern I-25 corridor and the mountain
valleys with more frequent snow showers over the mountains. PoPs
decrease after midday as the closed low slips back down the the
southwest again and shouldn`t bother us again until is gets caught
up in the upper level flow and ejects out to the region (see long
term forecast).

High temperatures will be similar to what they were yesterday,
perhaps slightly cooler with the front, with values in the 40s to
50s over the plains (nearing 60s over the far eastern plains) and
the 30s to 40s over the mountain valleys and Teller County. Slightly
cooler temperatures are expected for the lows tonight with values in
the 20s over the plains and the teens to 20s over the mountain
valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Monday-Wednesday...A warming and drying trend remains in the offing
into the start of the work week, as the old cutoff retrogrades back
across the Desert Southwest on Monday, before it remains progged to
weaken and kick back across the Rockies as an open Tuesday and
Wednesday. Operational models continue to differ on strength and
location of this weakening system, with ensemble mean data in good
agreement of a weak open wave translating across the Central Rockies
with the best lift and moisture associated with the system across
the Southern Rockies. With that said, still can`t rule out an
isolated shower across the higher terrain along the ContDvd
on Monday. Steepening lapse rates will support isolated to scattered
showers, and even an isolated thundershower, across the higher
terrain Tuesday and Wednesday, with isolated -shra/-tsra also
possible across the southeast Plains on Wednesday. Precipitation is
expected to be generally light with any snow accumulation being
spotty and light across the higher peaks. Temperatures look to warm
back to at or slightly above seasonal levels through the middle of
the next week.

Thursday-Saturday...Upper level ridging building across the region
on Thursday gives way to increasing westerly flow into next weekend,
as more eastern Pacific energy moves across the West Coast. Latest
models differ on how this energy continues to translate east, with
the potential for a split flow pattern developing across the
Intermountain West complicating the forecast across the Rockies.
Latest NBM and ensemble data keep the best chances of precipitation
along and west of the ContDvd into the weekend, with temperatures
remaining at or above seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected over KALS, KCOS, and KPUB throughout the
forecast period. KALS has the best chance for a rogue shower to
develop overhead during the morning today, but confidence is low
enough to not be included in the TAF. Winds will be a little tricky
there today with a weak front pushing gusty easterlies through La
Veta Pass - with the boundary of easterlies and calm conditions
expected to set up just east of KALS. KCOS and KPUB will have
northerlies throughout the forecast period becoming light after
sunset.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for COZ065>068-
072>075-079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...WANKOWSKI
AVIATION...SKELLY


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