000
FXUS65 KPUB 201031
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
431 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ALONG WITH MORE ENERGY DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATING INTO THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL
RADARS AND SATELLITE INDICATING BANDED PRECIPITATION SHIELD SLIDING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO WITH SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS AT
THIS TIME.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WITH BROAD UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE STATE AS
AS BACK SIDE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE EVENING AND CONTINUES OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT. LINE OF BANDED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN COLORADO
PROGGED TO SHEAR APART THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS THOUGH CANT RULE
OUT A SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE PIKES PEAK
AND PALMER DVD REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...THOUGH STILL SCATTERED IN NATURE...LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MORE
ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORTING MORE
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LACKING AND DEVELOPING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL WITH PASSING
SYSTEM AND WITH H7 TEMPS PROGGED BETWEEN -2C AND +2C...COOLEST
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...SHOULD SEE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WITH THAT SAID...COULD
SEE SOME SNOW MIXING DOWN TO AROUND 9KFT WITH STRONGER STORMS WITH
ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW GENERALLY AOA 10KFT.

PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING...SAVE SOME SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PARTIAL
CLEARING SKIES TO LEAD TO CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH HIGH MT
VALLEY LOCALES LIKELY SEEING SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MIDSECTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE ONE OF
TRANSITION AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST ON TUES...THEN A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND SLIDES ACROSS COLORADO ON WED AND
THU. EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TUE AFTN AND EVE...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S. FOR WED AND
THU...THE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BUMPING MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 F. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LINGERS HOWEVER...AS THE
MODELS INDICATE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED. AS SFC HIGH PRES DROPS DOWN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON THU...E-SE SFC FLOW TAPS INTO AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE
ALLOWING ISOLATED POPS TO PUSH IN FROM THE EAST...AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PERSIST LATE INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SE CORNER.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST...WITH STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE E PLAINS. THERE IS STILL
A REMAINING THREAT OF CONVECTION LAYING ACROSS THE SE CORNER...SO
KEPT ISOLATED POPS THERE FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR CONSISTENCY FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AS THE SE
CORNER MAY BE LINING UP FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THEN. IN
ADDITION...ALL THREE DAYS...FRI THROUGH SUN...WILL ALSO BE FLIRTING
WITH CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE LIKELY AT TAF SITES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. STORMS DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MW