000
FXUS65 KREV 100926
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
226 AM PDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Warm and dry weather will prevail through the middle of the week
with slight chances of afternoon showers on Thursday. A low
pressure system will provide periods of gusty winds, rain and
mountain snow, and cooler temperatures Friday and over the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will continue to move over the western US into
Thursday, allowing for our temperatures to increase upwards of
10-15 degrees above average through Friday. Latest guidance has a
70% chance for Reno reaching 80 degrees on Thursday, which would
be the first 80 degree day so far this year. Winds are light on
Wednesday, but are expected to become a bit breezy (from the west)
on Thursday afternoon ahead of our next system. Gusts upwards of
35-45 mph on Sierra ridges and 20-30 mph for western NV are
conceivable. The HREF as well as a few higher-resolution models
show isolated afternoon showers for western Lassen County as well
as in Mono and Mineral counties. Latest guidance has a 10-25%
chance for showers in these aforementioned areas. Overall, most of
the area will remain dry and warm.

By Friday into the weekend, yet another weekend storm system will
impact the region. Looking at the evolution of the synoptic
pattern, ensembles all show a deep cutoff low pressure dropping
south along the west coast through Saturday. This low then moves
into central CA by Sunday, and into the central Great Basin by
Monday. This will give us several days of cooler temperatures,
gusty winds, and precipitation throughout the area.

Storm Details: For precipitation, latest blended guidance
continues to increase compared to prior days. Three day (Fri-Sun)
liquid totals typically range from 0.25-0.50" for most eastern
Sierra communities and western Lassen County. Between 0.50-1.25"
is possible along the Sierra crests from Lassen County south
through Mono County. At this time, there a 30-40% chance for at
least 1.00" of liquid along the Sierra ridges, and a 10% chance
or less elsewhere. Additionally, between a few hundredths to
0.30" is conceivable for locations along and east of US-395 in
Mono County, eastern Lassen County, and far western NV. We also
can`t rule out a thunderstorm on Friday with a 15-25% chance.
Lighter accumulations of nothing to 0.10" is possible in the inner
basins and ranges.

As for snowfall totals, between 1-4" is possible at lake level in
Tahoe and along US-395 in Mono County. Between 4-12" is possible
along the Sierra ridges from Lassen County south into Mono
County. The Sierra ridges south of US-50 have a 20-40% chance for
at least 6" of snow while areas north of US-50 only have a 10-20%
chance for 6" of snow. Winds will also ramp up from Friday-
Saturday with the strongest ridgetop gusts likely exceed 60-80 mph
while valley winds reach 30-40 mph. BY the end of the 7-day
period, ensembles are all hinting at a larger hemispheric trough
settling south over the northern US. So better confidence that
this will keep our temperatures on the cooler side, but less
confidence into precipitation.
-McKellar

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread VFR conditions and light winds will prevail today as
high pressure builds overhead. There is a 15-20% chances of
showers Thursday afternoon for KMMH. Increased W-SW breezes are
also expected Thursday afternoon for all area terminals. Flight
conditions will deteriorate further Friday and over the weekend as
a low pressure system moves across the region.
-McKellar

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$