Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 040528
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1128 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
STATE. RADAR ANALYSIS HAS DEMONSTRATED SMALL HAIL WITH CURRENT
STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WIND. THE BEST COVERAGE FOR THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH NATRONA AND JOHNSON
COUNTIES SEEMING MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE MID
TO LATE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...CONDITIONS WILL WORK TO DRY OUT
FROM THE WEST...WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF THE
DIVIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL SEE WEAKENING
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA.

ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WYOMING ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THESE
SYSTEMS...WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINING AREA MAY SEE A SLIGHT WARMING
IN TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

A CLOUDY...COOL AND WET PERIOD OVERALL WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NOW...AS THE MODELS HAVE KEPT
THAT LAST UPPER LOW IN THE AREA LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLING ALOFT...SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
HIGH IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE 12Z GFS RUN DIPS SOME -6C TEMPERATURES
INTO JOHNSON COUNTY EARLY NEXT SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD BRING
SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO ABOUT 5500FT BUT ABOUT THE ONLY THING WE CAN
COUNT ON THIS EARLY IS THAT THINGS WILL CHANGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER
TO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AND WILL THEN DIP
INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE
30S AND 40S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
09Z...BUT SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z. SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALSO SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AND FOG COULD OCCUR IN SOME PLACES MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
16Z DUE TO HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RECENT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH COVERAGE OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO
WARRANT THEM AT ANY TERMINAL AT THE MOMENT.  ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER STEERING CURRENTS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK SO MUCH OF
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER/NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OFF. THUS HAVE KEPT THE TERMINALS
AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS DRY SUCH AS KRIW AND KWRL...BUT HAVE MENTION
OF EITHER VCSH OR VCTS AT THE REST. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
END PRETTY QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY
IN MANY LOCATIONS MONDAY...BUT BECOMING MORE ERRATIC AND GUSTY DUE
TO CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS COULD OCCUR IN A FEW SPOTS DUE TO THE RECENT
MOISTURE AND SMALL TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER COVERAGE AND RESIDENCE TIME OF FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO SHORT TO PREVAIL AT ANY TERMINAL.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A TAD LESS
AND BE FOCUSED NEAR/OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR
CONVECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. STORM COVERAGE WILL PUSH EASTWARDS OVERNIGHT...WITH
DRYING ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE BY MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THESE MOISTURE PUSHES...WITH EASTERN WYOMING SEEING A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN TOMORROW WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A COUPLE
DEGREES OF WARMING. GENERALLY CALM WIND EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHER THAN JOHNSON AND EASTERN NATRONA COUNTY WHICH MAY
SEE PERIODS OF GUSTY ACTIVITY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM








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