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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 230606
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
206 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains over the area today bringing with dry and
warm weather. A cold front crosses our region on Wednesday with
scattered showers mainly across the mountains. Temperatures
remain a few degrees either side of normal through the week with
high pressure returning behind the front.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Warm and slightly gusty today/tonight.

2. Showers by Wednesday morning in the western mountains.

Scattered cirrus was moving through the southern and central
Appalachians associated with a couple weak short waves moving
through the Midwest and the OH Valley. A Frost Advisory remains
in effect for eastern parts of the forecast area until 9 AM
with lows dipping into the mid 30s.

NNW flow aloft becomes more WNW, allowing for more upper level
energy and cirrus to move through, especially tonight. Highs
should still warm into the 60s and 70s with comfortable but dry
humidity levels and slightly gusty SW winds.

By tonight a more robust short wave will dig into the OH Valley,
pushing a frontal boundary through our area after 2 AM. We are
removed from the stronger mid and upper level forcing, but a
combination of 40 kts around 850-700mb, weak frontogenetical
forcing and orographic lift will bring a few showers to the
western mountains before daybreak. QPF amounts stay below a
quarter inch through daybreak, and drop off to almost nothing
towards the New River Valley.

Confidence is high in the near term forecast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for dry weather on Thursday.

2) A chance of showers exists in the mountains for early
Wednesday and again by late Friday.

A cold front will cross the Appalachian Mountains on Wednesday.
However, the area of low pressure associated with this front
will stay well to the north in eastern Canada. The frontal
boundary will also not be able to tap into any Gulf or Atlantic
moisture. So, any consequential rainfall from showers will
remain confined in the mountains from Boone to Lewisburg. While
a little bit of moisture could spill eastward into the Piedmont,
it will likely just be in the form of sprinkles as it must
contend with the wind turning towards the west to provide
downslope flow east of the Blue Ridge.

Once the cold front departs offshore by Wednesday night, high
pressure will build southeastward from the Great Lakes. The
wind should diminish enough to allow good radiational cooling
that would push temperatures down into the 30s and 40s. Some
patchy frost is possible for western Greenbrier County of West
Virginia where temperatures fall close to the freezing mark by
Thursday morning. Dry weather will persist through Thursday and
Thursday night. By Friday, high pressure should wedge against
the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge, and an easterly flow
should keep temperatures near or slightly below normal. A warm
front will nudge northward around the western periphery of the
wedge during Friday afternoon, which could bring a chance of
showers for the mountains.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for a warming trend during the weekend.

2) Chances of showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase
by early next week.

High pressure will slowly head offshore during Saturday, while a
warm front heads north of the Mid Atlantic. Only a low chance of
showers and thunderstorms is possible for the mountains by
Saturday afternoon. The wind should swing to the south on
Saturday night and eventually the southwest by Sunday and
Monday. The increasing warm air advection and an upper level
ridge building overhead will boost high temperatures above
normal to start the new week. Meanwhile, a low pressure system
intensifying in the Plains should combine with the increasing
warmth and moisture to promote higher chances of showers and
thunderstorms by Monday.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected through at least 24/06Z.

Light and variable winds early this morning become SSW after 15Z
today. Will see some gusty winds to 20 kts today and tonight,
with periods of cirrus. Frontal boundary approaches between
6-12Z Wednesday, with MVFR ceilings moving in from the northwest
and primarily affecting BLF and LWB through 12Z Wed. After 6Z,
winds become WNW as the front pushes southeast.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Thursday looks dry and VFR.

A warm front approaches Friday, and although VFR conditions
remain, but could start to see sub-VFR toward LWB/BLF late
Friday into Saturday. -SHRA looks unlikely outside of sprinkles
during this time for BLF.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ024-035-
     044>047-058-059.
NC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ006.
WV...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG/SH