


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA
225 FXUS66 KSEW 101559 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 859 AM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .UPDATE...No changes to the overall forecast. Please see the aviation and marine sections below for updates to those forecasts. && .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build into the region into the weekend and through the first half of next week, resulting in warm and dry conditions across western Washington. The heat is expected to peak next Wednesday, where temperatures could reach the low to mid 90s across much of the region. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Post frontal onshore flow this morning will maintain cloudy skies as light shower activity tapers off over the North Cascades and along the northern coast. The marine layer will persist along the coast throughout the day today but will burn off by the early afternoon across the interior lowlands, giving way to mostly sunny skies as high pressure builds offshore. The cloudy skies will limit high temperatures along the coast today to the mid 60s, with temperatures peaking in the lower 70s further inland. A weak ridge will pass over the region on Friday, allowing temperatures to rebound back into the lower 80s across much of the lowlands. Weakening onshore flow will maintain cloudy skies along the Pacific coast with mostly clear and dry conditions elsewhere. Zonal flow will resume over the region on Saturday as a weak disturbance passes over the periphery of the upper level ridge building offshore, which will maintain nearly identical conditions to Friday across western Washington through the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Conditions on Sunday and Monday will bring more of the same under zonal flow as high pressure continues to build offshore, with light surface onshore flow and highs in the low to mid 80s. A high pressure ridge situated offshore will sharply amplify during the first half of next week, bringing much warmer conditions and widespread Moderate (orange) HeatRisk to western Washington on Tuesday and Wednesday. By Tuesday, the offshore ridge will sharply amplify and a thermally induced surface trough is on track to develop along the Pacific Northwest coastline. Highs will reach the 90s on Tuesday for areas south of the Puget Sound and along some Cascade Foothill and Valley locations. Temperatures will continue to increase into Wednesday as the high pressure offshore continues to build and the thermal trough shifts northward, with areas across the Puget Sound lowlands on track to reach the mid 90s. A few daily temperature records may be broken towards the middle of next week, and a shift to easterly winds through the Cascade gaps will likely bring elevated fire weather concerns to the region. 15 && .AVIATION...A weak trough is swinging a front across W WA this morning. The flow aloft will turn more northwesterly today with this trough. Radar is tracking light showers/drizzle moving eastward. A smaller band of showers is tracking inland along the coast. These will be hit and miss around the terminals (given the scattered nature). Conditions currently are a mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR. MVFR decks (expectation is 2,000-3,000 ft bases). A few spots from KPAE to KHQM may see CIGs drop below 1,000 ft. Mist may drop visibilities at coastal terminals down to 2 SM. Once the trough clears this afternoon, a transient ridge will clear up most ceilings (interiors will see improvement to VFR as early as 21Z, with scattering taking place this evening. Another push will be possible Friday morning with lower ceilings as the onshore flow translates down to the surface. Southwest winds this morning. These winds will decrease through the day, and turn northwesterly late this afternoon and evening regionwide at 4 to 8 kt. KSEA...Few hit or miss showers possible at the terminal this morning with MVFR cigs. VFR is favored to return around 20-21z. The chance for MVFR Friday morning is slightly lower, but a marine push is expected to push stratus inland from the southwest. Southwest winds 4-8 kt will decrease this morning, and turn northwesterly by 22-00Z. HPR/McMillian && .MARINE...An occluded front is moving inland this morning with a passing upper level trough. Some scattered showers are ongoing with this trough in some of the inland waters, and the coastal waters will see some showers as well this morning. Additionally, areas of locally dense fog will be possible again this morning as the front passes. The coverage is not expected to be widespread enough for a marine dense fog advisory, but may opt to do a special weather statement later in the morning if fog does develop. Visibilities down to a mile are possible, with isolated areas seeing less than a mile. The flow over the waters will turn northwesterly later today post front. Diurnal pushes will continue through the strait (but at this time do not appear they will reach small craft advisory criteria). A trough passing to the north early next week may produce gusty winds in the outer coastal waters, along with steeper seas. Seas will range 3-4 feet today, increase to 4-6 feet Friday, and further increase to 6 to 9 feet Sunday through Wednesday, couple spots further offshore may see 10 feet seas. HPR/McMillian && .FIRE WEATHER...Cooler and more moist conditions will begin to cease later today as skies clear and conditions being to warm up with a weak upper level ridge building over the area. Friday will be the warmest and driest day of the work week with RH values dropping back into the 25% to 35% range over the mountains and across the interior lowlands south of the Puget Sound. More robust onshore flow will help usher in moist air this weekend despite high temperatures remaining in the 80s. While there is some model discrepancy, there is consensus that a more robust upper level ridge will being to build and move into the area by the middle of next week. Models are beginning show the development of a thermal trough along the coast, which would allow for winds to shift to offshore, promoting much drier and warmer conditions as well as some potential breezy winds through the Cascade gaps. This pattern will continue to be closely monitored as we approach next week. 62 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$